Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings

08-11-2020 05:08PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

So whats the solution guys? Up and down between level 3/4 and 5 until some magic cure arrives?
What if it doesn't arrive? Or what if it isn't all that magic? We just keep going like this for years?

Over something with an IFR in the low zero point somethings?

We only have money to keep doing this lockdown and restrictions thing for 2021. We can’t go beyond that. Or at least that’s the noises coming from government.

We will have a vaccine but it likely is not exactly what people think it is based on what the experts are now saying. It won’t prevent you catching Covid, but may prevent you getting serious symptoms.

I think it’s one of those situations were it will have to do. The government will need to spin the narrative that the vaccine is great and we need to go back to normal with added austerity to pay the Covid bill.

charlie14 · 08-11-2020 05:11PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Yeah, the gyms would be packed with people with obesity issues rolling up to die.

Pretty much the case if that is your argument for opening them. For obesity the answer is simple enough, and you do not need a gym. Eat less. walk more.

end of the road · 08-11-2020 05:16PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But thats the whole point of the idea of controlled spread.

In one scenario you're trying to suppress to lowest possible numbers. Treading water essentially and hoping for a game changer.
In the other scenario you're trying to keep the health system afloat but go for biggest achievable spread within that constraint.

Since we already agreed that it will spread anyway it seems to me that at least scenario 2 has some sort of goal or a possible positive side effect. Whereas scenario 1 is all hope and little plan.

We already heard senior scientists claiming we will still have distancing and masks and restrictions even with a vaccine. That just cannot be allowed to happen. I'd actually become a zero covid supporter over this nonsense.

both are ultimately doing the same thing.
suppressing and allowing for the highest tolerable spread to insure the systems function.
systems can only function properly by suppressing the virus, but in that there will be a recognition that the virus will spread.
if distancing and masks and restrictions are the only way to control this, then they will have to be allowed and if needs be heavily enforced.

Johnboy1951 · 08-11-2020 05:23PM

end of the road wrote: »

he's referring to natural herd immunity, which very much is unachievable by the looks of it in relation to this virus.

I am not as sure as you are about this point.
In fact I would disagree, based on the experience so far with various levels of restrictions.

our approach is about controlling the virus while allowing the maximum economic activity, it is not possible to have full scale or near full scale economic activity and control the virus.

This is the problem as I see it.
Yes control the virus spread, but allow sufficient room for it to spread to the maximum our health system can deal with.

Obviously that is not the case presently.

That is how we could maximise the economic activity while controlling the spread.

we do need to do better in terms of allowing the health system to function though.

Yes we do, and we, even belatedly, need to issue public advice on how to boost our immune systems.

the health advice about boosting the immune system has been there from the start

It is probably somewhere, but who has been pushing it?
Nobody!
All we hear is numbers of cases and deaths being highlighted.

We should be hearing the advice every day along with whatever numbers they choose to highlight.

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:24PM

manniot2 wrote: »

How can you claim Ireland is getting it right? Yes you can count the number of cases, but have you the ability of doing a cost benefit exercise of getting these cases low? And I don’t mean economically. You can’t, and therefore you don’t know if Ireland is doing something right. Nobody knows, and we won’t for a number of years.

I think most people on this forum are looking for a proportionate response to this virus, in this country. And for the last 8 months our response has been out of proportion with others.

Where is this analysis?

Seems to be calculated by the paranoid and deluded (about the wrong risks) in their head.

If the fears where justified, the government would have taken a different approach. I presume they have a better sense of the finances than you.

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:25PM

That enforcement thing is a red herring and continuously being trotted out by people who think controlling their fellow citizens is the answer to everything. Since masks have been mandated in August I have seen a grand total of 1! person without a mask in my local shops and supermarkets.

And no that wasn't me.

I'll come right out and say it. If the prospect was for years of distancing (such a 'harmless word but think about it for a moment what that actually means) and masks and restrictions and being at the whim of governments shutting stuff down and bossing me around by 'emergency' law, if that was the prospect, I'd vote for anyone who says they will end this. And if thats the new party of flesh eating nazi zombies so be it.

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:27PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I'd actually become a zero covid supporter over this nonsense.

Ah you might get sense yet it seems

dodzy · 08-11-2020 05:27PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I take slight offence in that.

I am not saying that masks can not catch corona laden water droplets. They probably can. It just doesnt seem to make any difference. We got numbers down to single figures without masks. We also got numbers up to record highs with masks. Clearly mask impact is at the very least vastly overstated.

In order to achieve those ‘single figure’ numbers, society literally stopped earlier in the year. The place was post-apocalyptic. This level 5 is light years from the last one. You’re not comparing like with like.

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:27PM

nofools wrote: »

Where is this analysis?

Seems to be calculated by the paranoid and deluded (about the wrong risks) in their head.

If the fears where justified, the government would have taken a different approach. I presume they have a better sense of the finances than you.

well most of all they have they knowledge that it wont be them paying it back.

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:29PM

dodzy wrote: »

In order to achieve those ‘single figure’ numbers, society literally stopped earlier in the year. The place was post-apocalyptic. This level 5 is light years from the last one. You’re not comparing like with like.

That was the first 2 months. Numbers continued to come down through our stages of reopening. And regardless all throughout we were in supermarkets and later in shops without masks.

Galwayguy35 · 08-11-2020 05:35PM

Lockdowns if they continue into next year will destroy whatever bit of the economy is still left.

Not to mention the many places who will close for good because their business is gone bust.

And that's not even touching on the fact that peoples mental health will suffer and could lead to tragic consequences.

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:35PM

pjohnson wrote: »

Thats the "quality" of post sweetmaggie was refering to I assume. Dont shout it down now :pac:

The thread has lost its mind since Ireland actually started reducing numbers while they rose in most other countries. It hurts the open uppers to see Ireland get something right.

They don't have the honesty to change their mind when the world has proven their thinly held opinion to be almost completely wrong.

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:37PM

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Lockdowns if they continue into next year will destroy whatever bit of the economy is still left.

Not to mention the many places who will close for good because their business is gone bust.

And that's not even touching on the fact that peoples mental health will suffer and could lead to tragic consequences.

Why we should go extremely hard on people taking the piss and playing it down.

We can't afford to tolerate detractors.

I think culturally the public will turn against them very quick.

Drink driving was stopped by a change in perception, not the law.

Stormyteacup · 08-11-2020 05:38PM

nofools wrote: »

Why we should go extremely hard on people taking the piss and playing it down.

We can't afford to tolerate detractors.

I think culturally the public will turn against them very quick.

Drink driving was stopped by a change in perception, not the law.

Out of interest, and genuinely asking - do you think the current restrictions would be in place exactly as they are now if we had triple the hospital capacity we have?

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:41PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Out of interest, and genuinely asking - do you think the current restrictions would be in place exactly as they are now if we had triple the hospital capacity we have?

I think so because hospitals mitigate but don't cure.

There is still a guaranteed number of deaths per thousand cases.

Plenty don't make it out of ICU.

That's fairly obvious.

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:42PM

nofools wrote: »

Why we should go extremely hard on people taking the piss and playing it down.

We can't afford to tolerate detractors.

I think culturally the public will turn against them very quick.

Drink driving was stopped by a change in perception, not the law.

Exactly, thought police is what we need so that only the one and only truth/opinion may prevail.

polesheep · 08-11-2020 05:43PM

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Out of interest, and genuinely asking - do you think the current restrictions would be in place exactly as they are now if we had triple the hospital capacity we have?

If I may answer, yes, they would. That's because they won't tolerate people catching the virus in the first place. It's an extreme overreaction.

polesheep · 08-11-2020 05:44PM

polesheep wrote: »

If I may answer, yes, they would. That's because they won't tolerate people catching the virus in the first place. It's an extreme overreaction.

Nofools beat me to it and proved my point. There can be no satisfying those that want us all locked down in order to have zero CASES of Covid.

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:44PM

nofools wrote: »

I think so because hospitals mitigate but don't cure.

There is still a guaranteed number of deaths per thousand cases.

Yes, about 1.

nofools wrote: »

Plenty don't make it out of ICU.

That's fairly obvious.

And yet 4 out of 5 actually do. You know what? The vast majority of nursing home patients are fine, too.

manniot2 · 08-11-2020 05:45PM

why are the guards so concerned with tax and nct at these checkpoints? i presume theyre fed up listening to peoples lies about their journeys.

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:47PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Exactly, thought police is what we need so that only the one and only truth/opinion may prevail.

Do you think you are in the alternative thought police or something?

It could get weird and dystopian if you manage to drag it out for years, i would agree there.

Best to do the right thing so

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:48PM

manniot2 wrote: »

why are the guards so concerned with tax and nct at these checkpoints? i presume theyre fed up listening to peoples lies about their journeys.

Gives them some sort of side benefit to all this. Wouldnt blame them.

I actually feel sorry for the guards. They dont want to do this either. They're just people like you and me. I guess plenty of them dont even agree with it either.

Now imagine standing there for hours asking the same stupid question over and over again. Getting the same answer over and over again.

The 5km rule is the biggest load of nonsense.

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:49PM

polesheep wrote: »

If I may answer, yes, they would. That's because they won't tolerate people catching the virus in the first place. It's an extreme overreaction.

Your post is an extreme overreaction.

Let's just imagine it did happen and not too painfully, what do you fear about a covid free island anyway?Having something less to blame the government for?

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:51PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Yes, about 1.

And yet 4 out of 5 actually do. You know what? The vast majority of nursing home patients are fine, too.

That's 200 per thousand who don't in other money.

darconio · 08-11-2020 05:53PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Yeah they better open the gyms on Dec 1st

Nothing more essential than them in Winter

charlie14 wrote: »

Open the gym so people with the underlying condition of obesity can use them.
What possibly could go wrong :rolleyes:

I don't use the gym, but the preventive measures taken by the gym owners were absolutely spot on, the chances of catching anything while exercising in their premises was close to none, but yeah let's close everything down, we must be all together in this misery.

charlie14 · 08-11-2020 05:54PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Yes, about 1.

Last wave the ratio of deaths to confirmed just over 3%.
That is over 30 per thousand, not 1 per thousand. No lockdown and from what we know where that applied the figure was double that at 60 per thousand

Zebra3 · 08-11-2020 05:54PM

nofools wrote: »

Why we should go extremely hard on people taking the piss and playing it down.

We can't afford to tolerate detractors.

I think culturally the public will turn against them very quick.

Drink driving was stopped by a change in perception, not the law.

Drink driving wasn't stopped, it was reduced.

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:54PM

nofools wrote: »

Do you think you are in the alternative thought police or something?

It could get weird and dystopian if you manage to drag it out for years, i would agree there.

Best to do the right thing so

Not sure what you're on about.

I've said it from the start. There are only two options that make sense.

Either live with it and let as many people get infected and thereby immune as possible without overloading the health system. Yes that would mean monitoring and restrictions.

Or else go for zero covid.

What we're doing is neither one nor the other and is almost a guarantee to drag it out for years. And its the single most stupid thing to do.

And you now why we're doing it anyway? Because its the least risky approach to the people in charge. We can do what everyone is doing. Nobody has to propose something daring or risky. Nobody has to stick their head out over the parapet. We can do the great consensus thing where no one has to take real responsibility and ownership. Its the way society has been going for some time and of course its the only answer to this problem now.

nofools · 08-11-2020 05:57PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Not sure what you're on about.

I've said it from the start. There are only two options that make sense.

Either live with it and let as many people get infected and thereby immune as possible without overloading the health system. Yes that would mean monitoring and restrictions.

Or else go for zero covid.

What we're doing is neither one nor the other and is almost a guarantee to drag it out for years. And its the single most stupid thing to do.

And you now why we're doing it anyway? Because its the least risky approach to the people in charge. We can do what everyone is doing. Nobody has to propose something daring or risky. Nobody has to stick their head out over the parapet. We can do the great consensus thing where no one has to take real responsibility and ownership. Its the way society has been going for some time and of course its the only answer to this problem now.

There are plenty of thought police in this thread keeping the peace and not letting anyone mess with your alternative facts.

First option doesn't work so that leaves the second option looking more attractive.

I agree on your last bit.

We should toughen up and show more balls as a nation

CalamariFritti · 08-11-2020 05:57PM

nofools wrote: »

That's 200 per thousand who don't in other money.

Go over the HSE incidence reports for the last 3 months and calculate the percentage of cases requiring hospitalisation and/or ICU. Then come back to me with your projections of thousands in ICU.

I'll spare you the time. ICU was about 0.2% last time I looked. And 4 out of 5 came out ok. The deaths are actually happening elsewhere.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings