COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Micky 32 · 03-11-2020 02:27PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

And why should SARS-CoV-2 never weaken?

I never said it wouldn’t.

03-11-2020 02:34PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

1918 was caused by a strain of H1N1 influenza (type A), still around, most would have been vaccinated at some point or would have had it the old fashioned way.

SARS from 2002-2004 was wiped out with contact tracing and isolating victims.

1957, 2009 is H1N1 again, antigen drift keeps it around.

1968 H3N2 (type A influenza)

MERS form 2012 - endemic in dromedary camels. Camel workers are getting infected by it still every year. Since it's not spreading easily between humans, it's being contained. The latest paper on MERS in The Lancet is well worth a read if you're interested.

We have yearly pandemics of influenza A and B with a bit of H1N1 here and there (the standard TIV would have those three included), same with the four hCoVs (e229, NL63, HKU1, OC43), rhinoviruses (around 100 serotypes), adenoviruses, noroviruses, RSV etc. We've just gotten used to them and are referring to them as seasonal colds and flus.

OC43 is now thought by many to have caused the Russian "flu" which killed a million between 1889-1895. Reports on it suggest very similar symptoms to
covid. Now it causes a cold, sometimes bronchitis and occasionally pneumonia

Irish Stones · 03-11-2020 02:48PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I never said it wouldn’t.

OK

I rephrase my question. Why is someone saying that it won't weaken? Do they claim this virus is different?

Irish Stones · 03-11-2020 02:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

OC43 is now thought by many to have caused the Russian "flu" which killed a million between 1889-1895. Reports on it suggest very similar symptoms to covid. Now it causes a cold, sometimes bronchitis and occasionally pneumonia

So it has weakened?

Gael23 · 03-11-2020 02:53PM

I believe that Smallpox is the only disease that has ever been 100% eradicated from the modern world. TB came close but seems to be creeping back

holdyerhorses · 03-11-2020 02:53PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

There’s no irony in my post. Point it out?

No. Think about what you're accusing the 'experts' (your quotes) of doing, and what you're doing.

Hmmzis · 03-11-2020 02:57PM

Gael23 wrote: »

I believe that Smallpox is the only disease that has ever been 100% eradicated from the modern world. TB came close but seems to be creeping back

SARS as well, but it never became endemic (thankfully).

Thierry12 · 03-11-2020 02:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

So nobody should make conclusions until we have data.

Exactly

Irish Stones · 03-11-2020 03:06PM

Gael23 wrote: »

I believe that Smallpox is the only disease that has ever been 100% eradicated from the modern world. TB came close but seems to be creeping back

In my country, Italy, the vaccine for Smallpox isn't mandatory anymore, it was abolisghed in 1981, and doesn't appear in the list of the 14 vaccines to be administered to young kids.
I was vaccinated against it, as was all my generation. It seems that should smallpox be back, this lat generation might be wiped out.

Hmmzis · 03-11-2020 03:09PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

So it has weakened?

Well, sort of. OC43 is one of the more stable human coronaviruses and there are some suspicions that some of the accessory protein encoding genes might have been deleted over the last 100 years or so.

The other side of the coin is that the virus would have 'attenuated' the hosts (us) as well. The least compatible ones would have been removed from the population early on (harvesting effect) and the genetic traits that would have lead to fatal outcomes at a younger age would have been selected out of the human population over time.

Gael23 · 03-11-2020 03:14PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

In my country, Italy, the vaccine for Smallpox isn't mandatory anymore, it was abolisghed in 1981, and doesn't appear in the list of the 14 vaccines to be administered to young kids.
I was vaccinated against it, as was all my generation. It seems that should smallpox be back, this lat generation might be wiped out.

It has been effectively eradicated so you don’t need the smallpox vaccine

stevek93 · 03-11-2020 03:48PM

Gael23 wrote: »

I believe that Smallpox is the only disease that has ever been 100% eradicated from the modern world. TB came close but seems to be creeping back

I seen the HSE has stopped giving the TB vaccine since 2015?

Micky 32 · 03-11-2020 04:03PM

holdyerhorses wrote: »

No. Think about what you're accusing the 'experts' (your quotes) of doing, and what you're doing.

What am i doing? Do tell.... all i’m saying the experts on here claiming “ there won’t be an effective vaccine” should be taken by a pinch of salt until the actual vaccine experts reveal their findings in a month or so. Quite simple really.

Gael23 · 03-11-2020 04:17PM

stevek93 wrote: »

I seen the HSE has stopped giving the TB vaccine since 2015?

The factory which produced it was destroyed by fire and there is no other producer available I believe.

I actually never got it. I was taken to crumlin children hospitals soon after birth and vaccines weren’t done there.

holdyerhorses · 03-11-2020 04:24PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

What am i doing? Do tell.... all i’m saying the experts on here claiming “ there won’t be an effective vaccine” should be taken by a pinch of salt until the actual vaccine experts reveal their findings in a month or so. Quite simple really.

If you can't figure it out from your post in reply to mine, then I cannot help, it's glaringly obvious. You said don't listen to the 'experts' here as they have no data, they you said said 'experts' would be disappointed because of the data. Which is it? There is data or there isnt?

I don't think anyone here has said there won't be an 'effective' vaccine. What they've said is that it won't be SARS-Cov-2 sterilising (as the manufacturers have also suggested with their goals), it will reduce the COVID-19 disease. Does this continually need explaining? It seems like it might.

There is also the question of length of immunity of any vaccine, there are reports of waning t-cell and anti-bodies, and there are also report of significantly longer lasting immunity, this is really the open question about efficacy and a vaccine or infection route out of this whole thing.

hmmm · 03-11-2020 04:49PM

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-bahrain/update-1-bahrain-allows-sinopharm-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-use-in-frontline-workers-idUSL1N2HP0R0

"Bahrain has granted emergency approval for the use of a Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidate currently in phase III trials on frontline workers from Tuesday, state news agency BNA said."

Irish Stones · 03-11-2020 04:59PM

Gael23 wrote: »

It has been effectively eradicated so you don’t need the smallpox vaccine

I had read that a sample of smallpox virus had been saved and stored in safe places for scientific purposes.
Just think if, by a human error, that sample escaped those safe places!

https://www.passporthealthusa.com/2019/10/why-do-we-store-samples-of-eradicated-diseases/
Despite these ongoing arguments, live samples of the smallpox virus are still housed at two locations. One laboratory is in Russia's State Research Center of Virology, located in the city of Koltsovo in Siberia. The other samples are kept at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

03-11-2020 05:03PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

I had read that a sample of smallpox virus had been saved and stored in safe places for scientific purposes.
Just think if, by a human error, that sample escaped those safe places!

https://www.passporthealthusa.com/2019/10/why-do-we-store-samples-of-eradicated-diseases/
Despite these ongoing arguments, live samples of the smallpox virus are still housed at two locations. One laboratory is in Russia's State Research Center of Virology, located in the city of Koltsovo in Siberia. The other samples are kept at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

R0 estimated at 3.5 - 6 in populations with no residual immunity

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399/

hmmm · 03-11-2020 05:04PM

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start

"It has now been confirmed to Pulse by numerous sources that GPs and the whole of the NHS are going to be put on standby to start vaccinating over-85s and frontline workers from early December."

Irish Stones · 03-11-2020 05:10PM

Deleted User wrote: »

R0 estimated at 3.5 - 6 in populations with no residual immunity

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11742399/

Exactly what I was meaning. My generation and those till 1980 have been vaccinated. We could survive a smallpox pandemic, but all people younger that 40-45 will be doomed.

03-11-2020 05:16PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

Exactly what I was meaning. My generation and those till 1980 have been vaccinated. We could survive a smallpox pandemic, but all people younger that 40-45 will be doomed.

Unfortunately for those aged 40 to 48 also, Ireland stopped the Smallpox vaccine in 1972 it appears

holdyerhorses · 03-11-2020 05:22PM

hmmm wrote: »

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/breaking-news/covid-vaccine-des-set-to-be-announced-imminently-for-december-start

"It has now been confirmed to Pulse by numerous sources that GPs and the whole of the NHS are going to be put on standby to start vaccinating over-85s and frontline workers from early December."

Well, this is great, if efficacy is high, then this will really help.

stevek93 · 03-11-2020 05:38PM

Gael23 wrote: »

The factory which produced it was destroyed by fire and there is no other producer available I believe.

I actually never got it. I was taken to crumbling children hospitals soon after birth and vaccines weren’t done there.

Were they vaccinating in the early 90s?

Micky 32 · 03-11-2020 05:49PM

holdyerhorses wrote: »

If you can't figure it out from your post in reply to mine, then I cannot help, it's glaringly obvious. You said don't listen to the 'experts' here as they have no data, they you said said 'experts' would be disappointed because of the data. Which is it? There is data or there isnt?

I don't think anyone here has said there won't be an 'effective' vaccine. What they've said is that it won't be SARS-Cov-2 sterilising (as the manufacturers have also suggested with their goals), it will reduce the COVID-19 disease. Does this continually need explaining? It seems like it might.

There is also the question of length of immunity of any vaccine, there are reports of waning t-cell and anti-bodies, and there are also report of significantly longer lasting immunity, this is really the open question about efficacy and a vaccine or infection route out of this whole thing.

Once again talking out of your hoop and stop twisting everything i post. Seems to be a common tactic on here. My comment was sarcasm for when we actualy get the data. I did not say anywhere there is actual data available yet. You have no evidence of anything you posted above. Lets wait for the real experts to reveal the data in a month or two and not boards armchair experts eh?

To summarise. Until the vaccine companies reveal the results of the trials no one knows for sure what they will be with any certainty, it’s that simple.

holdyerhorses · 03-11-2020 06:23PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Once again talking out of your hoop and stop twisting everything i post. Seems to be a common tactic on here. My comment was sarcasm for when we actualy get the data. I did not say anywhere there is actual data available yet. You have no evidence of anything you posted above. Lets wait for the real experts to reveal the data in a month or two and not boards armchair experts eh?

To summarise. Until the vaccine companies reveal the results of the trials no one knows for sure what they will be with any certainty, it’s that simple.

Oh, it was sarcasm, right, thanks.

Gael23 · 03-11-2020 08:10PM

stevek93 wrote: »

Were they vaccinating in the early 90s?

Yes I believe so. I was born in 1991 and it was on,y because was so unwell as a baby I never got it

funnydoggy · 03-11-2020 08:37PM

I enter the thread to expect some good news and see people going around in circles debating the same points.

tobefrank321 · 03-11-2020 11:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

So nobody should make conclusions until we have data.

No-one is making conclusions. Everything is speculation at this point. Most people are fine with speculation and different scenarios based on what the vaccines will achieve, eg effectiveness, sterilising, etc. One or two posters on the otherhand take huge offence to any kind of speculation. That's ok too. But its kind of idiotic to pin all our hopes on the vaccine alone and not have a plan in case its not 100% effective or sterilising. You cannot just rustle up hospital or icu capacity overnight if the vaccine fails to do everything some people think it will. There also needs to be a fallback plan.

ACitizenErased · 03-11-2020 11:17PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No-one is making conclusions. Everything is speculation at this point. Most people are fine with speculation and different scenarios based on what the vaccines will achieve, eg effectiveness, sterilising, etc. One or two posters on the otherhand take huge offence to any kind of speculation. That's ok too. But its kind of idiotic to pin all our hopes on the vaccine alone and not have a plan in case its not 100% effective or sterilising. You cannot just rustle up hospital or icu capacity overnight if the vaccine fails to do everything some people think it will. There also needs to be a fallback plan.

What do you mean by 'the' vaccine? Which one is 'the' vaccine? There's hundreds of them.

tobefrank321 · 03-11-2020 11:26PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What do you mean by 'the' vaccine? Which one is 'the' vaccine? There's hundreds of them.

The vaccine, a vaccine, the solution and exit to all this. It doesn't matter which one.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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