Who thinks Trump will win?

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 10:55am

8-10 wrote: »

I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It has never been put to the test but yes the speaker of the house is next in line after the Vice President. Any member of congress to act as president could be deemed unconstitutional and then it would fall to the secretary of state to act as president until the result of the election is sorted out. For anyone that has bets on the election this could be squeaky bum time as the wording on paddy power of the bet is next president, the acting president would be the winner of the bet.

Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment.

partyguinness · 30-10-2020 11:02am

8-10 wrote: »

I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country

That was my thought. The current administration ends on 21 January no matter what the election outcome.

So that would leave Pelosi.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:04am

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I included the relevant quote. Without PA trump has a near impossible task.

That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
You need 270 to win.
Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 30-10-2020 11:05am

Seanachai wrote: »

I'd say there could be some obfuscation with the counting, they certainly won't be gracious in defeat. They prob have the hoodies on standby to wreck the place too.

They've shown the last 4 years, just how gracious they are in defeat... :pac:

I don't imagine it will be any different this time around. Even a Trump win by heavy margin - which is highly probable at this point - would still be unlikely to deter them from all their usual behaviour.

But it doesn't really matter... it's predictable and yawn inducing at this point. Still funny to watch though!

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:05am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
You need 270 to win.
Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

when you do the maths biden has many options and trump has few.

Igotadose · 30-10-2020 11:07am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
You need 270 to win.
Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

Take the challenge - fill in the EC map and tell us your prediction including the swing states: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:07am

partyguinness wrote: »

That was my thought. The current administration ends on 21 January no matter what the election outcome.

So that would leave Pelosi.

and give up her position as speaker of the house for a temporary position as president? I dont think is very likely. There is no reason that congress couldn't decide that Biden should be president.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:14am

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment.

It is not as clear cut as that

You've skipped a step, on 6th of January the Vice President counts the electoral votes and if there is no clear outcome he can to put it simply make himself acting vice president and this can be contested and that's when the fun and games will start. Congress deciding can also be contested. Both would go to the supreme court to decide. There is an awful lot more to it than that but if there is no clear outcome by inauguration day it could end up falling on the secretary to state to act as President. it is a lot more likely that would happen than the speaker of the house. None of these have every been tested and the supreme court wouldn't be able to make a ruling in just a few days

Smee_Again · 30-10-2020 11:19am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It is not as clear cut as that

You've skipped a step, on 6th of January the Vice President counts the electoral votes and if there is no clear outcome he can to put it simply make himself acting vice president and this can be contested and that's when the fun and games will start. Congress deciding can also be contested. Both would go to the supreme court to decide. There is an awful lot more to it than that but if there is no clear outcome by inauguration day it could end up falling on the secretary to state to act as President. it is a lot more likely that would happen than the speaker of the house. None of these have every been tested and the supreme court wouldn't be able to make a ruling in just a few days

It really is.

There’s a process that will be followed that will result in Pelosi being President.

Saying it could be challenged is you trying to muddy the waters.

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:21am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It is not as clear cut as that

You've skipped a step, on 6th of January the Vice President counts the electoral votes and if there is no clear outcome he can to put it simply make himself acting vice president and this can be contested and that's when the fun and games will start. Congress deciding can also be contested. Both would go to the supreme court to decide. There is an awful lot more to it than that but if there is no clear outcome by inauguration day it could end up falling on the secretary to state to act as President. it is a lot more likely that would happen than the speaker of the house. None of these have every been tested and the supreme court wouldn't be able to make a ruling in just a few days

Do you have a source for that?
the 20th amendment is very clear. If no decision by the 20th then congress decides. The House picks the president and the Senate picks the Vice-President. Until congress reaches a decision the speaker of the house is President. the previous administration is ended on the 20th.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:21am

Smee_Again wrote: »

It really is.

There’s a process that will be followed that will result in Pelosi being President.

Saying it could be challenged is you trying to muddy the waters.

When something has never been put into action it is not clear cut

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:22am

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Do you have a source for that?
the 20th amendment is very clear. If no decision by the 20th then congress decides. The House picks the president and the Senate picks the Vice-President. Until congress reaches a decision the speaker of the house is President. the previous administration is ended on the 20th.

I will write it out but it will take quite a while, if it's ok with you I will do it tonight

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:23am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

I will write it out but it will take quite a while, if it's ok with you I will do it tonight

a ink to what you are referring to will suffice.

Smee_Again · 30-10-2020 11:24am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

When something has never been put into action it is not clear cut

It’s very clear cut.

Also very unlikely to happen so it’s a non-issue.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:26am

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

a ink to what you are referring to will suffice.

I will provide links as well but they will be to the constitution so it will take time to find the relevant parts. There are a number of very interesting scenarios there.
They won't be links to news articles

namloc1980 · 30-10-2020 11:27am

partyguinness wrote: »

That was my thought. The current administration ends on 21 January no matter what the election outcome.

So that would leave Pelosi.

If there is no clear winner from the electoral college the House of Reps will decide the election between Trump and Biden based on the 12th Amendment. It's unlikely to get to that though - either Trump or Biden will win the electoral college.

namloc1980 · 30-10-2020 11:31am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It is not as clear cut as that

You've skipped a step, on 6th of January the Vice President counts the electoral votes and if there is no clear outcome he can to put it simply make himself acting vice president and this can be contested and that's when the fun and games will start. Congress deciding can also be contested. Both would go to the supreme court to decide. There is an awful lot more to it than that but if there is no clear outcome by inauguration day it could end up falling on the secretary to state to act as President. it is a lot more likely that would happen than the speaker of the house. None of these have every been tested and the supreme court wouldn't be able to make a ruling in just a few days

The 1824 election was decided by Congress under the 12th Amendment as no candidate won the electoral college.

speelunker22 · 30-10-2020 11:34am

You can take nothing as given with this election. The choices are poor so it's more a case of choosing the "least worst" for a lot of people.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:35am

namloc1980 wrote: »

The 1824 election was decided by Congress under the 12th Amendment as no candidate won the electoral college.

There has been relevant amendments to the constitution since then

vojiwox · 30-10-2020 11:40am

speelunker22 wrote: »

You can take nothing as given with this election. The choices are poor so it's more a case of choosing the "least worst" for a lot of people.

I think choosing the least worse makes it a given! :pac:

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:44am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

There has been relevant amendments to the constitution since then

perhaps you can come back to your assertion that the vice president can make himself acting vice president if the results of the electoral college vote are inconclusive. I have looked ant what i believe to be an authoritative source and I see no mention of the vice-president having this power.

https://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/#:~:text=the%20Electoral%20College.-,Electors,President%20and%20one%20for%20President.

Since the mid-20th century, on January 6 at 1:00 pm before a Joint Session of Congress, the Vice President opens the votes from each state in alphabetical order. He passes the votes to four tellers—two from the House and two from the Senate—who announce the results. House tellers include one Representative from each party and are appointed by the Speaker. At the end of the count, the Vice President then declares the name of the next President.

speelunker22 · 30-10-2020 11:44am

vojiwox wrote: »

I think choosing the least worse makes it a given! :pac:

True!

Any right-leaning Americans I have spoken to prior to the 2016 election were just terrified that Hilary would take their guns and would literally have voted for anybody to prevent that perceived threat. I don't think much has changed on that front for 2020 but a lot of Republicans will be more wary of Kamala Harris than Joe Biden.

namloc1980 · 30-10-2020 11:48am

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

There has been relevant amendments to the constitution since then

Which ones?

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:50am

namloc1980 wrote: »

Which ones?

the 20th for one. That still doesnt backup anything that EasyComeEasyGo has asserted.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 30-10-2020 11:53am

Will there be a fresh poll on election day?

AlphaDelta1 · 30-10-2020 12:05pm

speelunker22 wrote: »

You can take nothing as given with this election. The choices are poor so it's more a case of choosing the "least worst" for a lot of people.

Two weakest candidates in living memory for me.

cnocbui · 30-10-2020 12:29pm

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Will there be a fresh poll on election day?

Yes, it's called an election.

duploelabs · 30-10-2020 12:35pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Yes, it's called an election.

I think they're refeering to the poll on this thread

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 12:46pm

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

I will provide links as well but they will be to the constitution so it will take time to find the relevant parts. There are a number of very interesting scenarios there.
They won't be links to news articles

just tell me what section of the constitution you are relying on. I dont require anything more than that

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 1:00pm

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

perhaps you can come back to your assertion that the vice president can make himself acting vice president if the results of the electoral college vote are inconclusive. I have looked ant what i believe to be an authoritative source and I see no mention of the vice-president having this power.

https://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/#:~:text=the%20Electoral%20College.-,Electors,President%20and%20one%20for%20President.

I will come back to everything I have said, I promise but I do not have the time now and it takes time to find everything. The 20th amendment is one of what I will be referencing. How the vice president can make himself President was putting it very simply as I said and I should have worded it better but I was in a rush.
If the electoral collage fails the senate chooses the Vice President, they do it differently to congress, each senator has one vote, so if the Dems have control of the senate they would elect the Vice President and if the GOP wins the senate it's their choice. That's why the senate is an important one to keep an eye on.
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-3/

The senate decides who will be the vice president and they will become acting president if the presidential election is not decided by inauguration day

The only way the senate would not be able to elect a vice president is if they are tied

If the senate is tied the sitting vice president on Jan 3rd, Mike Pence could break the deadlock thus making himself the new vice president and then would go on to become acting president Jan 20th

I know that's a big step from saying the vice present will make himself president but when I try to get a load of thoughts out quickly it ends up looking something like that. I don't simplify well

I will answer all the rest later, I will be refencing the 20th amendment and the 25th amendment and there is a law professor who's name I can't think off has made some very important points that congress decided that congressional leaders should assume the presidency and that this could be unconstitutional. This is important in the scenario where the succession of the presidency is contested. I will write it all out properly later with references to the constitution and I'll have to take time to do it otherwise it might all come out back to front.

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 1:18pm

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

I will come back to everything I have said, I promise but I do not have the time now and it takes time to find everything. The 20th amendment is one of what I will be referencing. How the vice president can make himself President was putting it very simply as I said and I should have worded it better but I was in a rush.
If the electoral collage fails the senate chooses the Vice President, they do it differently to congress, each senator has one vote, so if the Dems have control of the senate they would elect the Vice President and if the GOP wins the senate it's their choice. That's why the senate is an important one to keep an eye on.
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-3/

The senate decides who will be the vice president and they will become acting president if the presidential election is not decided by inauguration day

The only way the senate would not be able to elect a vice president is if they are tied

If the senate is tied the sitting vice president on Jan 3rd, Mike Pence could break the deadlock thus making himself the new vice president and then would go on to become acting president Jan 20th

I know that's a big step from saying the vice present will make himself president but when I try to get a load of thoughts out quickly it ends up looking something like that. I don't simplify well

I will answer all the rest later, I will be refencing the 20th amendment and the 25th amendment and there is a law professor who's name I can't think off has made some very important points that congress decided that congressional leaders should assume the presidency and that this could be unconstitutional. This is important in the scenario where the succession of the presidency is contested. I will write it all out properly later with references to the constitution and I'll have to take time to do it otherwise it might all come out back to front.

the vice-president does have the deciding vote in the case of a tie in the senate vote for vice-president so he could vote for himself to be vice-president in the event of a tie. That does not mean he would go on to be acting president on jan 20th. that is just plain wrong. the candidate that the house picks will become president on Jan 20th. that much is very clear.

ETA: In my rush to post i missed out some steps. So i will rephrase the above

On Jan 6th a joint session of congress is held where the votes from the electoral college are counted. The VP opens the votes and passes them to 4 tellers who count the votes. The VP announces the next president if there is a majority for one candidate.

If there is a tie in the vote the 20th amendment comes into play. Two votes will then take place, one each in the House and the Senate. The House votes on who should be president and the Senate votes on who should be VP

If there is a tie in the Senate vote then the incumbent VP has the deciding vote on who the next VP will be. So Pence could vote for himself as VP.
As there is an odd number of representatives in the House then a tie is not possible unless somebody doesn't vote.

So after both the House and Senate have voted (called a contingent election) the two candidates elected by the House and the Senate are sworn in as President and VP respectively on Jan 20th.

Smee_Again · 30-10-2020 1:23pm

Trump has cancelled an election night party at Trump Hotel in DC.

No word on why but they had sent emails soliciting donations to pay for it so it’s quite possible not enough was raised to pay for it and we know that Donald doesn’t have the money to pay for it himself.

Not looking good for the Trump cult.

PopePalpatine · 30-10-2020 1:29pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Trump has cancelled an election night party at Trump Hotel in DC.

No word on why but they had sent emails soliciting donations to pay for it so it’s quite possible not enough was raised to pay for it and we know that Donald doesn’t have the money to pay for it himself.

Not looking good for the Trump cult.

Maybe the organisers couldn't get enough hydroxychloroquine.

Billy Mays · 30-10-2020 1:35pm

Smee_Again wrote: »

Trump has cancelled an election night party at Trump Hotel in DC.

No word on why but they had sent emails soliciting donations to pay for it so it’s quite possible not enough was raised to pay for it and we know that Donald doesn’t have the money to pay for it himself.

Not looking good for the Trump cult.

Wasn't one of Donnie's disciples on here banging on about this a few days ago saying rooms at the hotel on election night were going for three times the normal rate?

Looks like the big man has taken his supporters for a bunch of suckers again

Seanachai · 30-10-2020 1:41pm

It's a long video but Rickards has some interesting points.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 2:22pm

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment.

https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4697&context=flr

Section 2’s strong emphasis on party continuity introduced an important
concept into the Constitution. In short, presidential succession should not
shift party control of the executive branch. Whereas previously this idea
simply made good sense, the Twenty-Fifth Amendment elevated it to a
constitutional concept.

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 2:25pm

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4697&context=flr

Section 2’s strong emphasis on party continuity introduced an important
concept into the Constitution. In short, presidential succession should not
shift party control of the executive branch. Whereas previously this idea
simply made good sense, the Twenty-Fifth Amendment elevated it to a
constitutional concept.

Presidential succession has no relevance to the electoral college vote and any subsequent contingent election that may be required in congress.

Pelezico · 30-10-2020 2:36pm

Trump is going to lose by a landslide. Pity this because at the end of the day he is great comedy.

notobtuse · 30-10-2020 2:44pm

The biased news media is doing Joe Biden no favors pretending all his shady dealings doesn’t exist. If they manage to get him elected be sure to look for an impeachment vote shortly after he takes office. Seems a cybersecurity expert has authenticated the email that implicates Biden, when he was Vice President, to his son Hunter’s shady business dealings in Ukraine. And apparently Hunter has been under investigation for these dealings by the FBI since last year. Also it appears Biden might have been the beneficiary to receive a 10% stake in the deal his son made with a Chinese energy company.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 2:46pm

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Presidential succession has no relevance to the electoral college vote and any subsequent contingent election that may be required in congress.

It leads to this

https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1959&context=fss_papers

cnocbui · 30-10-2020 2:46pm

Pelezico wrote: »

Trump is going to lose by a landslide. Pity this because at the end of the day he is great comedy.

No pity at all. There are plenty of even funnier comedians who do it for a living, while not killing people and stuffing up a country and other parts of the world in the process.

vojiwox · 30-10-2020 2:48pm

notobtuse wrote: »

The biased news media is doing Joe Biden no favors pretending all his shady dealings doesn’t exist. If they manage to get him elected be sure to look for an impeachment vote shortly after he takes office. Seems a cybersecurity expert has authenticated the email that implicates Biden, when he was Vice President, to his son Hunter’s shady business dealings in Ukraine. And apparently Hunter has been under investigation for these dealings by the FBI since last year. Also it appears Biden might have been the beneficiary to receive a 10% stake in the deal his son made with a Chinese energy company.

Seems...
Apparently...
Appears Biden might...

:P

Appears, apparently, that seemingly the whole story might be just a load of apparently made up nonsense.

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 2:52pm

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It leads to this

https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1959&context=fss_papers

I'm sure it can but what is the relevance to the counting of electoral college votes and a subsequent contingent election according to the 20th amendment? at what point in the process does the 25th amendment apply? Be specific.

gmisk · 30-10-2020 2:59pm

vojiwox wrote: »

Seems...
Apparently...
Appears Biden might...

:P

Appears, apparently, that seemingly the whole story might be just a load of apparently made up nonsense.

Where as this story about Trump and Bill Barr..
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/trump-turkey-bank-scandal-corruption-erdogan-halkbank-conflict-interest.html

Summed up in four points below
1) The Justice Department was prosecuting financial crimes by a Turkish bank.

2) Turkey’s president asked President Trump to quash the investigation.

3) Trump has personally received more than $1 million in payments from business in Turkey while serving as president.

4) Two attorneys general loyal to Trump, Matthew Whitaker and William Barr, both pressured federal prosecutors to go easy on the Turkish bank.

Extremely dodgy

AlphaDelta1 · 30-10-2020 3:06pm

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

francois · 30-10-2020 3:10pm

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

oh dear

Kermit.de.frog · 30-10-2020 3:14pm

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

Nope.

That's the inevitable rebound from reopening of states.

The economy is smaller today then it was this time last year.

Voters are living the pain.

https://twitter.com/davidmwessel/status/1321797417948352514

alchemist33 · 30-10-2020 3:14pm

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

Does somebody else really need to explain to you why "biggest ever rise" isn't significant after businesses shutting because of Covid?

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 3:30pm

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I'm sure it can but what is the relevance to the counting of electoral college votes and a subsequent contingent election according to the 20th amendment? at what point in the process does the 25th amendment apply? Be specific.

Where this started is I said that I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president, the reason why is if there is no clear winner each side can potentially contest other outcomes, vice president acting, speaker of the house acting etc. This is what will be used to contest the appointment of the speaker of the house or any federal legislator

You said
If it has not been decided by 20th January then Congress decides who is president according to section 3 of the 20th amendment. It would not go to Pompeo.

I'm saying this could be contested, using the last paper I linked no federal legislator could become acting president, so who would it fall on the secretary of state who is Mike Pompeo

Take a look at the supreme court now, who do you think they are going to side with? What does that make the chances of Nancy Pelosi becoming acting president

When I said this

It has never been put to the test but yes the speaker of the house is next in line after the Vice President. Any member of congress to act as president could be deemed unconstitutional and then it would fall to the secretary of state to act as president until the result of the election is sorted out. For anyone that has bets on the election this could be squeaky bum time as the wording on paddy power of the bet is next president, the acting president would be the winner of the bet.

The above is what I was talking about

You said this

Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment

According to the 20th Amendment this is correct, but the 25th amendment allowed for some deferent interpretations on how constitutional the succession of the presidency in the 20th is viewed. Can it be deemed unconstitutional? According to Akhil Reed Amar is it would be.

Do you think that Trump would let Nancy Pelosi become acting president uncontested with the Supreme Court the way it is?

To get to the stage where it would be an option for Nancy Pelosi to become president the electoral collage votes would have to fail the first to be contested would be Vice President Pence, do you think that Trump wouldn't contest Pelosi becoming acting president after the Democrats contested Pence becoming acting president.

If there is a clear winner, none of this will come into play, if there is not a clear winner there will be contesting of other outcomes, that is why I say I would not be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting vice president, in that scenario he is a lot more likely that Nancy Pelosi would be until the winner of the election is resolved

partyguinness · 30-10-2020 3:30pm

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

So how does it compare to pre COVID?

This Administration is well down on job creation compared to the Obama Admin.

Who thinks Trump will win?

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