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Who thinks Trump will win?

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    #7532
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    Going to epic to see the reactions in the media and indeed here if Trump wins. :D

    Not 'if'... when he wins. It's just a question of how much he wins by at this point.

    Nate silver was pushing ABC/WP polls with as much as 17% lead for Biden in wisconsin a few days ago:pac:... look at the early voter numbers 43% GOP / 36% Dem in a state Biden is apparently supposed to be cruising to victory! lol

    Texas landslide coming too... GOP also leading 41%/38% in 100% mail ins for Michigan... Florida and Arizona all looking great too.

    Pennsylvania is the only one not looking great right now. But he can drop that, if he has the others.

    You're right, this is going to be pretty funny watching people's reaction when reality starts to finally sink in... :D


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    #7533
    vojiwox
    Closed Accounts Posts: 416 ✭✭vojiwox


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    If it is not sorted by December 14th I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president on 20th January

    What could cause it to not be sorted by December 14th?


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    #7534
    partyguinness
    Registered Users Posts: 8,207 ✭✭✭partyguinness


    To be honest if Trump wins comedians and late night tallk show hosts will breathe a sigh of relief.

    4 more years of comedy from the Clown in Chief.


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    #7535
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,320 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    Pennsylvania is an interesting one alright but it has to be noted that they are 100% mail in voting so far, the in person early voting has not started there yet. The numbers are in line with ballots requested. It's important to note whether the in person voting has started in each state or not.

    It's hard to compare the statistics here to 2016 because there are much, much more people voting early this time around.

    It is interesting to track the numbers day by day. Take Florida for example, on Sunday the Dem vote was ahead of Gop by 364,000, on Tuesday Dem were ahead by 355,000, yesterday the Dem vote is ahead by 183,000. These numbers may have no relation to the final result of the election but they are interesting to look at.

    It will take a long time to count the votes in some states and some governors have already stated they are not going to rush it, they want to make sure it is correct. Texas is nearly past their total vote in 2016 already. If it is not sorted by December 14th I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president on 20th January

    If it has not been decided by 20th January then Congress decides who is president according to section 3 of the 20th amendment. It would not go to Pompeo.


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    #7536
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,293 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    Not 'if'... when he wins. It's just a question of how much he wins by at this point.

    Nate silver was pushing ABC/WP polls with as much as 17% lead for Biden in wisconsin a few days ago:pac:... look at the early voter numbers 43% GOP / 36% Dem in a state Biden is apparently supposed to be cruising to victory! lol

    Texas landslide coming too... GOP also leading 41%/38% in 100% mail ins for Michigan... Florida and Arizona all looking great too.

    Pennsylvania is the only one not looking great right now. But he can drop that, if he has the others.

    You're right, this is going to be pretty funny watching people's reaction when reality starts to finally sink in... :D

    Why are you accepting the number of mailed in ballots as "votes"??

    They are clearly not.

    No one can be 'leading' in anything other than the above of ballots they have casted.

    Even if they are, with an average of about 40% non party political its a pointless exercise as they are actually the ones who will dictate how the election goes.


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    #7537
    EasycomeEasygo
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭EasycomeEasygo


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    The Pennsylvania numbers in particular are really bad for trump. Trump really needs pennsylvania

    He can win without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina by holding the states he won in 2016, both he and Biden have many paths to the White House


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    #7538
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,320 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    He can win without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina by holding the states he won in 2016, both he and Biden have many paths to the White House

    Trump has very few paths to the white house.
    https://www.ft.com/content/b592d770-86c9-469f-a174-ce180056c24e
    Mr Trump could win the election without Pennsylvania. But most routes to victory require wins in Florida and North Carolina — states he won in 2016 but where he now trails Mr Biden in polls — and at least two other swing states from a group including Nevada and Arizona, where he is also behind, or Minnesota, which the Trump campaign says is in play but has not voted Republican since 1972.


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    #7539
    EasycomeEasygo
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭EasycomeEasygo


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    He can win without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina by holding the states he won in 2016, both he and Biden have many paths to the White House

    Sorry I meant to say either here, my mistake


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    #7540
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    Why are you accepting the number of mailed in ballots as "votes"??

    They are clearly not.

    No one can be 'leading' in anything other than the above of ballots they have casted.

    Even if they are, with an average of about 40% non party political its a pointless exercise as they are actually the ones who will dictate how the election goes.

    Oh absolutely... they're nothing more than a very rough indicator.

    But as indicators go at this point, they do not make for pretty reading if you are a Biden groupie... Squeaky bum time for the Dems! :p

    But anything can happen over the next 4 days, so I am of course taking numbers like this with a big lump of salt. :)


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    #7541
    Seanachai
    Registered Users Posts: 2,539 ✭✭✭Seanachai


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    Going to epic to see the reactions in the media and indeed here if Trump wins. :D

    I'd say there could be some obfuscation with the counting, they certainly won't be gracious in defeat. They prob have the hoodies on standby to wreck the place too.


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    #7542
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,293 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    Oh absolutely... they're nothing more than a very rough indicator.

    But as indicators go at this point, they do not make for pretty reading if you are a Biden groupie... Squeaky bum time for the Dems! :p

    But anything can happen over the next 4 days, so I am of course taking numbers like this with a big lump of salt. :)

    Theres nothing in those figures to cause any alarm for either side to be honest.

    The existence of a large non partisan cohort ensures that.

    You are just seeing something that you want to see.


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    #7543
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    partyguinness wrote: »
    To be honest if Trump wins comedians and late night tallk show hosts will breathe a sigh of relief.

    4 more years of comedy from the Clown in Chief.

    It's very true... He creates so many lucrative industries! :D

    Orange man bad and TDS, is a leftie comedy writer's *** dream! :P


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    #7544
    EasycomeEasygo
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭EasycomeEasygo


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    Trump has very few paths to the white house.
    https://www.ft.com/content/b592d770-86c9-469f-a174-ce180056c24e

    When you look at the state map and add up the electoral collage votes both Trump and Biden have different options and that is what is great about the electoral college system. That article is behind a paywall so I can't read it but Trump nor Biden need Pennsylvania to win. Florida is an important state with 29 electoral votes and whichever candidate wins it will be standing on good ground.


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    #7545
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 32,325 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    It's very true... He creates so many lucrative industries! :D

    Orange man bad and TDS, is a leftie comedy writer's *** dream! :P
    So many lucrative businesses like..
    1. Gotrump
    2. Trump steaks
    3. Trump Airlines
    4. Trump Vodka
    5. Trump Mortgage
    6. Trump: The Game
    7. Trump Magazine
    8. Trump University
    9. Trump Ice
    10. The New Jersey Generals
    11. Tour de Trump
    12. Trump Network
    13. Trumped!

    That isn't even mentioning the businesses he has driven to file for bankruptcy protection....so much winning.


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    #7546
    EasycomeEasygo
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭EasycomeEasygo


    Seanachai wrote: »
    I'd say there could be some obfuscation with the counting, they certainly won't be gracious in defeat. They prob have the hoodies on standby to wreck the place too.

    Antifa usually doesn't go out on Trumps behalf


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    #7547
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,342 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    If it is not sorted by December 14th I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president on 20th January

    I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

    Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country


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    #7548
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    The Pennsylvania numbers in particular are really bad for trump.

    Pennsylvania (along with Wisconsin) doesn't allow early counting of early votes. No counting is allowed until Election day. Some counties will start counting early votes at 7 am, but others may not start until the following day, meaning a high chance that Trump gets an election night lead and starts shenanigans to shut down the count.

    Florida, however, is counting those votes before election day, and they may lean Democratic, so Biden may have a lead in the first results announced. Trump may have to perform reverse shenanigans to keep those counts going longer.

    Fun!


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    #7549
    namloc1980
    Registered Users Posts: 18,144 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

    We'll see what happens over the next few days, but for any of us watching alternative metrics to the dodgy mainstream pollsters... this is not surprising at all. Enthusiasm for Biden is pretty poor compared with Trump, and this is predictably starting to show itself in the voter turnout.

    Are these "alternative metrics" a bit like "alternative facts"?
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    Red Tsunami alert! :D

    Just like after the predictions that Biden would be obviously demented and virtually unable to speak at the first debate, I expect you and the other Trumpists to either disappear on Wednesday morning or to claim the entire election was rigged (with zero evidence of course).


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    #7550
    8-10
    Registered Users Posts: 13,342 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    that is what is great about the electoral college system.

    There's nothing great about that system in my view. Needs to be gotten rid of


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    #7551
    The Phantom Jipper
    Registered Users Posts: 882 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    The party registration data is fairly interesting but the gender splits caught my eye aswell, typically 55-45 in favour of women. Given that Biden is expected to get mid to high 50s of female voters, this demographic split seems a little unhelpful for Trump.


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    #7552
    EasycomeEasygo
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭EasycomeEasygo


    8-10 wrote: »
    I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

    Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country

    It has never been put to the test but yes the speaker of the house is next in line after the Vice President. Any member of congress to act as president could be deemed unconstitutional and then it would fall to the secretary of state to act as president until the result of the election is sorted out. For anyone that has bets on the election this could be squeaky bum time as the wording on paddy power of the bet is next president, the acting president would be the winner of the bet.


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    #7553
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,320 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    When you look at the state map and add up the electoral collage votes both Trump and Biden have different options and that is what is great about the electoral college system. That article is behind a paywall so I can't read it but Trump nor Biden need Pennsylvania to win. Florida is an important state with 29 electoral votes and whichever candidate wins it will be standing on good ground.

    I included the relevant quote. Without PA trump has a near impossible task.


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    #7554
    EasycomeEasygo
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭EasycomeEasygo


    The Phantom Jipper wrote: »
    The party registration data is fairly interesting but the gender splits caught my eye aswell, typically 55-45 in favour of women. Given that Biden is expected to get mid to high 50s of female voters, this demographic split seems a little unhelpful for Trump.

    This could be put down to a fear of violence at the polling stations on November 3rd


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    #7555
    Timberrrrrrrr
    Registered Users Posts: 25,468 ✭✭✭✭Timberrrrrrrr


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    The Pennsylvania numbers in particular are really bad for trump. Trump really needs pennsylvania

    This is why his tweets have turned to pure scaremongering

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321961340341121025?s=19


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    #7556
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,320 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    8-10 wrote: »
    I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

    Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country
    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    It has never been put to the test but yes the speaker of the house is next in line after the Vice President. Any member of congress to act as president could be deemed unconstitutional and then it would fall to the secretary of state to act as president until the result of the election is sorted out. For anyone that has bets on the election this could be squeaky bum time as the wording on paddy power of the bet is next president, the acting president would be the winner of the bet.

    Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment.


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    #7557
    partyguinness
    Registered Users Posts: 8,207 ✭✭✭partyguinness


    8-10 wrote: »
    I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

    Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country


    That was my thought. The current administration ends on 21 January no matter what the election outcome.

    So that would leave Pelosi.


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    #7558
    EasycomeEasygo
    Registered Users Posts: 168 ✭✭EasycomeEasygo


    ohnonotgmail wrote: »
    I included the relevant quote. Without PA trump has a near impossible task.

    That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
    Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
    You need 270 to win.
    Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
    When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida


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    #7559
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    Seanachai wrote: »
    I'd say there could be some obfuscation with the counting, they certainly won't be gracious in defeat. They prob have the hoodies on standby to wreck the place too.

    They've shown the last 4 years, just how gracious they are in defeat... :pac:

    I don't imagine it will be any different this time around. Even a Trump win by heavy margin - which is highly probable at this point - would still be unlikely to deter them from all their usual behaviour.

    But it doesn't really matter... it's predictable and yawn inducing at this point. Still funny to watch though! ;)


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    #7560
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,320 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
    Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
    You need 270 to win.
    Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
    When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

    when you do the maths biden has many options and trump has few.


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    #7561
    Igotadose
    Registered Users Posts: 13,219 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    EasycomeEasygo wrote: »
    That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
    Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
    You need 270 to win.
    Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
    When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

    Take the challenge - fill in the EC map and tell us your prediction including the swing states: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps


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