Who thinks Trump will win?

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:31AM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

The Pennsylvania numbers in particular are really bad for trump. Trump really needs pennsylvania

He can win without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina by holding the states he won in 2016, both he and Biden have many paths to the White House

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:34AM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

He can win without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina by holding the states he won in 2016, both he and Biden have many paths to the White House

Trump has very few paths to the white house.
https://www.ft.com/content/b592d770-86c9-469f-a174-ce180056c24e

Mr Trump could win the election without Pennsylvania. But most routes to victory require wins in Florida and North Carolina — states he won in 2016 but where he now trails Mr Biden in polls — and at least two other swing states from a group including Nevada and Arizona, where he is also behind, or Minnesota, which the Trump campaign says is in play but has not voted Republican since 1972.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:36AM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

He can win without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina by holding the states he won in 2016, both he and Biden have many paths to the White House

Sorry I meant to say either here, my mistake

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 30-10-2020 11:36AM

sydthebeat wrote: »

Why are you accepting the number of mailed in ballots as "votes"??

They are clearly not.

No one can be 'leading' in anything other than the above of ballots they have casted.

Even if they are, with an average of about 40% non party political its a pointless exercise as they are actually the ones who will dictate how the election goes.

Oh absolutely... they're nothing more than a very rough indicator.

But as indicators go at this point, they do not make for pretty reading if you are a Biden groupie... Squeaky bum time for the Dems!

But anything can happen over the next 4 days, so I am of course taking numbers like this with a big lump of salt.

Seanachai · 30-10-2020 11:39AM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Going to epic to see the reactions in the media and indeed here if Trump wins.

I'd say there could be some obfuscation with the counting, they certainly won't be gracious in defeat. They prob have the hoodies on standby to wreck the place too.

sydthebeat · 30-10-2020 11:39AM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Oh absolutely... they're nothing more than a very rough indicator.

But as indicators go at this point, they do not make for pretty reading if you are a Biden groupie... Squeaky bum time for the Dems!

But anything can happen over the next 4 days, so I am of course taking numbers like this with a big lump of salt.

Theres nothing in those figures to cause any alarm for either side to be honest.

The existence of a large non partisan cohort ensures that.

You are just seeing something that you want to see.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 30-10-2020 11:39AM

partyguinness wrote: »

To be honest if Trump wins comedians and late night tallk show hosts will breathe a sigh of relief.

4 more years of comedy from the Clown in Chief.

It's very true... He creates so many lucrative industries!

Orange man bad and TDS, is a leftie comedy writer's *** dream! :P

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:43AM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Trump has very few paths to the white house.
https://www.ft.com/content/b592d770-86c9-469f-a174-ce180056c24e

When you look at the state map and add up the electoral collage votes both Trump and Biden have different options and that is what is great about the electoral college system. That article is behind a paywall so I can't read it but Trump nor Biden need Pennsylvania to win. Florida is an important state with 29 electoral votes and whichever candidate wins it will be standing on good ground.

gmisk · 30-10-2020 11:45AM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

It's very true... He creates so many lucrative industries!

Orange man bad and TDS, is a leftie comedy writer's *** dream! :P

So many lucrative businesses like..
1. Gotrump
2. Trump steaks
3. Trump Airlines
4. Trump Vodka
5. Trump Mortgage
6. Trump: The Game
7. Trump Magazine
8. Trump University
9. Trump Ice
10. The New Jersey Generals
11. Tour de Trump
12. Trump Network
13. Trumped!

That isn't even mentioning the businesses he has driven to file for bankruptcy protection....so much winning.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:45AM

Seanachai wrote: »

I'd say there could be some obfuscation with the counting, they certainly won't be gracious in defeat. They prob have the hoodies on standby to wreck the place too.

Antifa usually doesn't go out on Trumps behalf

8-10 · 30-10-2020 11:46AM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

If it is not sorted by December 14th I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president on 20th January

I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country

Zubeneschamali · 30-10-2020 11:46AM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

The Pennsylvania numbers in particular are really bad for trump.

Pennsylvania (along with Wisconsin) doesn't allow early counting of early votes. No counting is allowed until Election day. Some counties will start counting early votes at 7 am, but others may not start until the following day, meaning a high chance that Trump gets an election night lead and starts shenanigans to shut down the count.

Florida, however, is counting those votes before election day, and they may lean Democratic, so Biden may have a lead in the first results announced. Trump may have to perform reverse shenanigans to keep those counts going longer.

Fun!

namloc1980 · 30-10-2020 11:47AM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

We'll see what happens over the next few days, but for any of us watching alternative metrics to the dodgy mainstream pollsters... this is not surprising at all. Enthusiasm for Biden is pretty poor compared with Trump, and this is predictably starting to show itself in the voter turnout.

Are these "alternative metrics" a bit like "alternative facts"?

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Red Tsunami alert!

Just like after the predictions that Biden would be obviously demented and virtually unable to speak at the first debate, I expect you and the other Trumpists to either disappear on Wednesday morning or to claim the entire election was rigged (with zero evidence of course).

8-10 · 30-10-2020 11:47AM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

that is what is great about the electoral college system.

There's nothing great about that system in my view. Needs to be gotten rid of

The Phantom Jipper · 30-10-2020 11:49AM

The party registration data is fairly interesting but the gender splits caught my eye aswell, typically 55-45 in favour of women. Given that Biden is expected to get mid to high 50s of female voters, this demographic split seems a little unhelpful for Trump.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:52AM

8-10 wrote: »

I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country

It has never been put to the test but yes the speaker of the house is next in line after the Vice President. Any member of congress to act as president could be deemed unconstitutional and then it would fall to the secretary of state to act as president until the result of the election is sorted out. For anyone that has bets on the election this could be squeaky bum time as the wording on paddy power of the bet is next president, the acting president would be the winner of the bet.

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:53AM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

When you look at the state map and add up the electoral collage votes both Trump and Biden have different options and that is what is great about the electoral college system. That article is behind a paywall so I can't read it but Trump nor Biden need Pennsylvania to win. Florida is an important state with 29 electoral votes and whichever candidate wins it will be standing on good ground.

I included the relevant quote. Without PA trump has a near impossible task.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 11:53AM

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

The party registration data is fairly interesting but the gender splits caught my eye aswell, typically 55-45 in favour of women. Given that Biden is expected to get mid to high 50s of female voters, this demographic split seems a little unhelpful for Trump.

This could be put down to a fear of violence at the polling stations on November 3rd

Timberrrrrrrr · 30-10-2020 11:55AM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

The Pennsylvania numbers in particular are really bad for trump. Trump really needs pennsylvania

This is why his tweets have turned to pure scaremongering

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1321961340341121025?s=19

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 11:55AM

8-10 wrote: »

I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It has never been put to the test but yes the speaker of the house is next in line after the Vice President. Any member of congress to act as president could be deemed unconstitutional and then it would fall to the secretary of state to act as president until the result of the election is sorted out. For anyone that has bets on the election this could be squeaky bum time as the wording on paddy power of the bet is next president, the acting president would be the winner of the bet.

Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment.

partyguinness · 30-10-2020 12:02PM

8-10 wrote: »

I think Nancy Pelosi is in line to be sworn in if there is no winner of the election in time.

Presuming she wins reelection in California's 12th district, which is nearly guaranteed as hers is one of the safest seats in the country

That was my thought. The current administration ends on 21 January no matter what the election outcome.

So that would leave Pelosi.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 12:04PM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I included the relevant quote. Without PA trump has a near impossible task.

That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
You need 270 to win.
Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 30-10-2020 12:05PM

Seanachai wrote: »

I'd say there could be some obfuscation with the counting, they certainly won't be gracious in defeat. They prob have the hoodies on standby to wreck the place too.

They've shown the last 4 years, just how gracious they are in defeat... :pac:

I don't imagine it will be any different this time around. Even a Trump win by heavy margin - which is highly probable at this point - would still be unlikely to deter them from all their usual behaviour.

But it doesn't really matter... it's predictable and yawn inducing at this point. Still funny to watch though!

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 12:05PM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
You need 270 to win.
Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

when you do the maths biden has many options and trump has few.

Igotadose · 30-10-2020 12:07PM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

That's not true, take 2016 for example, he got 306 electoral college votes but it was technically 304 due to two faithless electors. Pennsylvania has 20 votes.
Take the 20 off the 304 and you get 284
You need 270 to win.
Not all the swing states have big votes like Florida. Arizona has 11, Iowa has 6, Nevada has 6, Minnesota has 10, Wisconsin has 10.
When you do the maths both Biden and Trump have many options including and not including Pennsylvania and including and not including Florida

Take the challenge - fill in the EC map and tell us your prediction including the swing states: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 12:07PM

partyguinness wrote: »

That was my thought. The current administration ends on 21 January no matter what the election outcome.

So that would leave Pelosi.

and give up her position as speaker of the house for a temporary position as president? I dont think is very likely. There is no reason that congress couldn't decide that Biden should be president.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 12:14PM

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment.

It is not as clear cut as that

You've skipped a step, on 6th of January the Vice President counts the electoral votes and if there is no clear outcome he can to put it simply make himself acting vice president and this can be contested and that's when the fun and games will start. Congress deciding can also be contested. Both would go to the supreme court to decide. There is an awful lot more to it than that but if there is no clear outcome by inauguration day it could end up falling on the secretary to state to act as President. it is a lot more likely that would happen than the speaker of the house. None of these have every been tested and the supreme court wouldn't be able to make a ruling in just a few days

Smee_Again · 30-10-2020 12:19PM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It is not as clear cut as that

You've skipped a step, on 6th of January the Vice President counts the electoral votes and if there is no clear outcome he can to put it simply make himself acting vice president and this can be contested and that's when the fun and games will start. Congress deciding can also be contested. Both would go to the supreme court to decide. There is an awful lot more to it than that but if there is no clear outcome by inauguration day it could end up falling on the secretary to state to act as President. it is a lot more likely that would happen than the speaker of the house. None of these have every been tested and the supreme court wouldn't be able to make a ruling in just a few days

It really is.

There’s a process that will be followed that will result in Pelosi being President.

Saying it could be challenged is you trying to muddy the waters.

ohnonotgmail · 30-10-2020 12:21PM

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It is not as clear cut as that

You've skipped a step, on 6th of January the Vice President counts the electoral votes and if there is no clear outcome he can to put it simply make himself acting vice president and this can be contested and that's when the fun and games will start. Congress deciding can also be contested. Both would go to the supreme court to decide. There is an awful lot more to it than that but if there is no clear outcome by inauguration day it could end up falling on the secretary to state to act as President. it is a lot more likely that would happen than the speaker of the house. None of these have every been tested and the supreme court wouldn't be able to make a ruling in just a few days

Do you have a source for that?
the 20th amendment is very clear. If no decision by the 20th then congress decides. The House picks the president and the Senate picks the Vice-President. Until congress reaches a decision the speaker of the house is President. the previous administration is ended on the 20th.

EasycomeEasygo · 30-10-2020 12:21PM

Smee_Again wrote: »

It really is.

There’s a process that will be followed that will result in Pelosi being President.

Saying it could be challenged is you trying to muddy the waters.

When something has never been put into action it is not clear cut

Who thinks Trump will win?

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