Who thinks Trump will win?

ohnonotgmail

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4697&context=flr

Section 2’s strong emphasis on party continuity introduced an important
concept into the Constitution. In short, presidential succession should not
shift party control of the executive branch. Whereas previously this idea
simply made good sense, the Twenty-Fifth Amendment elevated it to a
constitutional concept.

Presidential succession has no relevance to the electoral college vote and any subsequent contingent election that may be required in congress.

Pelezico

Trump is going to lose by a landslide. Pity this because at the end of the day he is great comedy.

notobtuse

The biased news media is doing Joe Biden no favors pretending all his shady dealings doesn’t exist. If they manage to get him elected be sure to look for an impeachment vote shortly after he takes office. Seems a cybersecurity expert has authenticated the email that implicates Biden, when he was Vice President, to his son Hunter’s shady business dealings in Ukraine. And apparently Hunter has been under investigation for these dealings by the FBI since last year. Also it appears Biden might have been the beneficiary to receive a 10% stake in the deal his son made with a Chinese energy company.

EasycomeEasygo

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Presidential succession has no relevance to the electoral college vote and any subsequent contingent election that may be required in congress.

It leads to this

https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1959&context=fss_papers

cnocbui

Pelezico wrote: »

Trump is going to lose by a landslide. Pity this because at the end of the day he is great comedy.

No pity at all. There are plenty of even funnier comedians who do it for a living, while not killing people and stuffing up a country and other parts of the world in the process.

vojiwox

notobtuse wrote: »

The biased news media is doing Joe Biden no favors pretending all his shady dealings doesn’t exist. If they manage to get him elected be sure to look for an impeachment vote shortly after he takes office. Seems a cybersecurity expert has authenticated the email that implicates Biden, when he was Vice President, to his son Hunter’s shady business dealings in Ukraine. And apparently Hunter has been under investigation for these dealings by the FBI since last year. Also it appears Biden might have been the beneficiary to receive a 10% stake in the deal his son made with a Chinese energy company.

Seems...
Apparently...
Appears Biden might...

:P

Appears, apparently, that seemingly the whole story might be just a load of apparently made up nonsense.

ohnonotgmail

EasycomeEasygo wrote: »

It leads to this

https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1959&context=fss_papers

I'm sure it can but what is the relevance to the counting of electoral college votes and a subsequent contingent election according to the 20th amendment? at what point in the process does the 25th amendment apply? Be specific.

gmisk

vojiwox wrote: »

Seems...
Apparently...
Appears Biden might...

:P

Appears, apparently, that seemingly the whole story might be just a load of apparently made up nonsense.

Where as this story about Trump and Bill Barr..
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/trump-turkey-bank-scandal-corruption-erdogan-halkbank-conflict-interest.html

Summed up in four points below
1) The Justice Department was prosecuting financial crimes by a Turkish bank.

2) Turkey’s president asked President Trump to quash the investigation.

3) Trump has personally received more than $1 million in payments from business in Turkey while serving as president.

4) Two attorneys general loyal to Trump, Matthew Whitaker and William Barr, both pressured federal prosecutors to go easy on the Turkish bank.

Extremely dodgy

AlphaDelta1

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

francois

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

oh dear

Kermit.de.frog

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

Nope.

That's the inevitable rebound from reopening of states.

The economy is smaller today then it was this time last year.

Voters are living the pain.

https://twitter.com/davidmwessel/status/1321797417948352514

alchemist33

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

Does somebody else really need to explain to you why "biggest ever rise" isn't significant after businesses shutting because of Covid?

EasycomeEasygo

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

I'm sure it can but what is the relevance to the counting of electoral college votes and a subsequent contingent election according to the 20th amendment? at what point in the process does the 25th amendment apply? Be specific.

Where this started is I said that I wouldn't be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting president, the reason why is if there is no clear winner each side can potentially contest other outcomes, vice president acting, speaker of the house acting etc. This is what will be used to contest the appointment of the speaker of the house or any federal legislator

You said
If it has not been decided by 20th January then Congress decides who is president according to section 3 of the 20th amendment. It would not go to Pompeo.

I'm saying this could be contested, using the last paper I linked no federal legislator could become acting president, so who would it fall on the secretary of state who is Mike Pompeo

Take a look at the supreme court now, who do you think they are going to side with? What does that make the chances of Nancy Pelosi becoming acting president

When I said this

It has never been put to the test but yes the speaker of the house is next in line after the Vice President. Any member of congress to act as president could be deemed unconstitutional and then it would fall to the secretary of state to act as president until the result of the election is sorted out. For anyone that has bets on the election this could be squeaky bum time as the wording on paddy power of the bet is next president, the acting president would be the winner of the bet.

The above is what I was talking about

You said this

Not correct. If it is not decided by Jan 20th then Congress decides as per the 20th amendment

According to the 20th Amendment this is correct, but the 25th amendment allowed for some deferent interpretations on how constitutional the succession of the presidency in the 20th is viewed. Can it be deemed unconstitutional? According to Akhil Reed Amar is it would be.

Do you think that Trump would let Nancy Pelosi become acting president uncontested with the Supreme Court the way it is?

To get to the stage where it would be an option for Nancy Pelosi to become president the electoral collage votes would have to fail the first to be contested would be Vice President Pence, do you think that Trump wouldn't contest Pelosi becoming acting president after the Democrats contested Pence becoming acting president.

If there is a clear winner, none of this will come into play, if there is not a clear winner there will be contesting of other outcomes, that is why I say I would not be shocked if Mike Pompeo became acting vice president, in that scenario he is a lot more likely that Nancy Pelosi would be until the winner of the election is resolved

partyguinness

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

So how does it compare to pre COVID?

This Administration is well down on job creation compared to the Obama Admin.

reg114

Will Trump Win ? No.

Nobody, not even Lincoln himself could survive 4 years of utter chaos, telling 20,000 documented lies, a merry-go-round of close associates who are now convicted cons and most importantly a criminally negligent handling of a pandemic that has contributed to the deaths of close to a quarter of a million Americans. The only thing purportedly going for Trump precovid was the economy , but recall he inherited a buoyant economy that had been resurrected post crash in 2008. The economy is still in ruins. Why would Americans rely on someone who was bankrupted multiple times to get them out of this mess?

The other thing people have to remember is how unpopular Hillary was 4 years ago even amongst democrats. In 2016 you had a perfect storm of an unpopular Hillary on one side and on the other Trump, a 'billionaire businessman' whose name was very familiar to Americans. He said exactly what republican voters wanted to hear. He was seen as anti-establishment and novel. If anything the last 4 years has shown him to be the utter conman that he is. Big corporations like Deutsche Bank knew years ago he was a snake oil salesman but were intimidated by his name and the force of his personality.

Trump has made a career out of talking BS and never accepting the word NO. His sheer arrogance and force of will, married to his sociopathy is why he has succeeded, till now. However, Americans are exhausted with his lies, tantrums and lack of common decency. In Biden they have relatively speaking a weak candidate, but I believe people so desperate to end the insanity they will choose Biden.

You also have to look at the numbers. Even factoring in margin for error in the polls, Biden is looking like taking Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. These three states were won by Trump 4 years ago by less than 1 %. If Biden retains Blue voting states and only adds these 3 states, its game over for Trump. There is a possibility Biden might flip Florida too. Florida are counting mail in ballots as we speak and will deliver a result around 1 am Irish time, If Biden wins Florida, it will be a landslide.

Biden will win.

EasycomeEasygo

Smee_Again wrote: »

Trump has cancelled an election night party at Trump Hotel in DC.

No word on why but they had sent emails soliciting donations to pay for it so it’s quite possible not enough was raised to pay for it and we know that Donald doesn’t have the money to pay for it himself.

Not looking good for the Trump cult.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/30/eric-trump-election-night-party-433669

Smee_Again

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

If something drops 30% and then rises 33% it is still down about 7% from it’s starting position.

astrofool

Smee_Again wrote: »

If something drops 30% and then rises 33% it is still down about 7% from it’s starting position.

Damn Math

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=embMAtagQiU

metaoblivia

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Wow just seen 3rd quarter GDP figures for the US economy, up 33.1% biggest ever rise in history apparently. Huge blow to the Biden campaign that.

Not really. It sounds good of course, but the economy has shrunk so much this year that the overall GDP is still quite low. And economic recessions/depressions aren't marked by a consistently falling market, but a volatile one that still results in losses, even among some bright spots.

I wouldn't expect those numbers to hold in Q4, especially as we started off October with Disney announcing major layoffs and a covid surge in much of the midwest.

Pa ElGrande

reg114 wrote: »

Will Trump Win ? No.

Nobody, not even Lincoln himself could survive 4 years of utter chaos, . . . .

All very well, except, Lincoln was dealing with chaos and yet got re-elected for a second term.

Pa ElGrande

https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1322001962469101568

Michael Moore says don't believe the polls. Trump, Obama and Biden are concentrating on Michigan, Wisconsin & Minnesota.


Dueling presidential campaign visits come to Minnesota.

'The Democratic party left us': how rural Minnesota is making the switch to Trump

AllForIt

Pelezico wrote: »

Trump is going to lose by a landslide. Pity this because at the end of the day he is great comedy.

I'm hearing reports that Biden has 'a slight lead' in swing states in the latest polls this hour. Just what Hillary had exactly this time 4 years go. He's ahead of Hillary in the other states but, don't forget the Electoral Collage, so that won't make any difference if I understand the way it works.

So, it's not looking good for Biden that the polls are narrowing as we get closer to election day, as I expected.

astrofool

AllForIt wrote: »

I'm hearing reports that Biden has 'a slight lead' in swing states in the latest polls this hour. Just what Hillary had exactly this time 4 years go. He's ahead of Hillary in the other states but, don't forget the Electoral Collage, so that won't make any difference if I understand the way it works.

So, it's not looking good for Biden that the polls are narrowing as we get closer to election day, as I expected.

The polling hasn't changed much, or has slightly widened in favour of Biden the past few days, please link to where you see different.

hirondelle

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

All very well, except, Lincoln was dealing with chaos and yet got re-elected for a second term.

You realise that the Confederate states weren't part of the election?

Outlaw Pete

I knock Biden a lot but had I know he would do the following, I would have been on his side all along.


https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/status/1322218253247303681

Outlaw Pete

astrofool wrote: »

The polling hasn't changed much, or has slightly widened in favour of Biden the past few days, please link to where you see different.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1322003986371719169
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1321952576884101120

gmisk

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1322003986371719169
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1321952576884101120

Trafalgar group what a surprise....

Outlaw Pete

Cahaly called the 2016 result. What's your problem with them?

vojiwox

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I knock Biden a lot but had I know he would do the following, I would have been on his side all along.


https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/status/1322218253247303681

And we're back around full circle! LOL

I wonder will Tucks lead with this tonight! :pac:

All that damning evidence... Its like it never existed.

cnocbui

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

...

One of the two polls to correctly predict Trump's victory in 2016 is predicting victory for Biden:

https://www.investors.com/politics/biden-vs-trump-ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/