COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

holdyerhorses · 28-10-2020 05:51PM

is_that_so wrote: »

More likely to see the implementation of quick testing technology instead, backed by PCR and possibly quarantine than this type of potential diplomatic incident stuff.

And also, tourism, are countries reliant on tourism for exports, likely to impose restrictions, to prevent travellers needing public health resources in their home country, I would doubt it.

Yellow fever vaccines are generally recommended for travellers from places with high transmission rates, enough vaccination in a destination and home country would negate any vaccine passport need extremely quickly. Complete red herring I think.

Hmmzis · 28-10-2020 05:53PM

hmmm wrote: »

Good article on vaccine supplies expected in 2021, and which countries have pre-purchased which vaccines:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3107262/production-covid-19-vaccine-could-top-16-billion-doses-delivery

"Of the 12 billion projected or planned doses the Yellow House tallied in September for production by the end of next year, only a third to a half might actually materialise, they forecast after taking into account historical failure rates in vaccine development for clinical trials, as well as possible setbacks when boosting production."

Those are some serious amounts, even with some failing, it would still bode well for the pandemic to be under control some time next year in most parts of the world.

JacksonHeightsOwn · 28-10-2020 05:53PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

Kate Bingham, chair of the UK government’s Vaccine Taskforce, warns that the first generation of vaccine, if ever available, might be not perfect, and we should not rely our strategy on the vaccine alone.

https://scroll.in/latest/976980/coronavirus-first-generation-of-vaccines-is-likely-to-be-imperfect-says-uk-official

It's a bit late for telling us not to rely on the vaccine as our strategy, expecially as it seems every country on the planet has adopted this strategy, bar maybe new Zealand and some parts of Asia.

holdyerhorses · 28-10-2020 05:56PM

chrisbonnie wrote: »

It's a bit late for telling us not to rely on the vaccine as our strategy, expecially as it seems every country on the planet has adopted this strategy, bar maybe new Zealand and some parts of Asia.

It was a bit naive and ignorant of governments to have that as their primary strategy from the get-go, as well.

hmmm · 28-10-2020 05:58PM

holdyerhorses wrote: »

But it's a pointless endeavour, the vaccine candidates put limits on the disease, not the spread of the virus.

Again, not proven and until phase 3 results are released we won't know the extent of protection.

holdyerhorses · 28-10-2020 06:01PM

hmmm wrote: »

Again, not proven and until phase 3 results are released we won't know the extent of protection.

What's not proven? Any efficacy? Of course. But their primary goal is to reduce disease, not transmission. And if so, then an even more pointless endeavour endeavour saying things like "no vaccination = no travel"

JacksonHeightsOwn · 28-10-2020 06:04PM

holdyerhorses wrote: »

It was a bit naive and ignorant of governments to have that as their primary strategy from the get-go, as well.

Totally, id like to think if these vaccines don't work, and we can't mass test like they do in China, then the country would take the zero covid approach, but I can't see them doing it. Unfortunately

holdyerhorses · 28-10-2020 06:07PM

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Totally, id like to think if these vaccines don't work, and we can't mass test like they do in China, then the country would take the zero covid approach, but I can't see them doing it. Unfortunately

The ship has sailed. Vaccinations, treatments, healthcare capacity, being "comfortable" with the extra morbitity/mortality and were back to normal.

hmmm · 28-10-2020 06:09PM

holdyerhorses wrote: »

What's not proven? Any efficacy? Of course. But their primary goal is to reduce disease, not transmission. And if so, then an even more pointless endeavour endeavour saying things like "no vaccination = no travel"

We'll have to just wait and see what the results of testing are.

It's pretty obvious that we are going to see testing before flights at some point next year, and countries will make their own decisions as to whether they want to let unvaccinated people in. Some of the poorer tourism-dependent countries might decide it's worth the risk, but I doubt anywhere wealthy is going to welcome them and risk starting new outbreaks in their own country.

holdyerhorses · 28-10-2020 06:11PM

hmmm wrote: »

We'll have to just wait and see what the results of testing are.

It's pretty obvious that we are going to see testing before flights at some point next year, and countries will make their own decisions as to whether they want to let unvaccinated people in. Some of the poorer tourism-dependent countries might decide it's worth the risk, but I doubt anywhere wealthy is going to welcome them and risk starting new outbreaks in their own country.

If a wealthy country has enough people vaccinated, and the vaccine is a preventer of disease, then it doesn't need to worry about outbreaks, they wont happen.

snotboogie · 28-10-2020 06:13PM

chrisbonnie wrote: »

It's a bit late for telling us not to rely on the vaccine as our strategy, expecially as it seems every country on the planet has adopted this strategy, bar maybe new Zealand and some parts of Asia.

Huge parts of Asia tbf. China, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea are all going for a form of zero covid. Basically every country in Asia Pac who can afford to do it, aside from Japan, are.

hmmm · 28-10-2020 06:14PM

holdyerhorses wrote: »

If a wealthy country has enough people vaccinated, and the vaccine is a preventer of disease, then it doesn't need to worry about outbreaks, they wont happen.

We don't know whether the vaccine is going to prevent disease or just serious illness, you've said that yourself. Let's just agree to disagree - I think some countries will choose to ban unvaccinated people, you think they are going to throw open their doors.

Instead of going around in circles with the same old arguments from previous posters, I'm going to stop here.

holdyerhorses · 28-10-2020 06:18PM

hmmm wrote: »

We don't know whether the vaccine is going to prevent disease or just serious illness, you've said that yourself. Let's just agree to disagree - I think some countries will choose to ban unvaccinated people, you think they are going to throw open their doors.

Instead of going around in circles with the same old arguments from previous posters, I'm going to stop here.

Agreed on the agreeing to disagree. The throwing the doors open, I think is a mischaracterisation, I'm sure they'll weigh it up and communicate the tradeoffs

Thierry12 · 28-10-2020 06:57PM

hmmm wrote: »

We don't know whether the vaccine is going to prevent disease or just serious illness, you've said that yourself. Let's just agree to disagree - I think some countries will choose to ban unvaccinated people, you think they are going to throw open their doors.

Instead of going around in circles with the same old arguments from previous posters, I'm going to stop here.

If you vaccinate the people that get sick

The 50+ age group

Does it matter if unvaccinated come into the country?

They are not going to kill people as the young don't die from this.

This will be an adult only vaccine for a long time imo

hmmm · 28-10-2020 07:00PM

Eli Lilly to supply 300,000 doses of its antibody treatment to the US for $300 million. Not cheap!
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-announces-agreement-us-government-supply-300000-vials

"Lilly anticipates manufacturing up to one million doses of bamlanivimab 700 mg by the end of 2020 – with 100,000 doses ready to ship within days of authorization – for use around the world. The supply of Lilly's antibody therapy is expected to increase substantially beginning in Q1 2021, as additional manufacturing resources come online throughout the year."

Thierry12 · 28-10-2020 07:05PM

hmmm wrote: »

Eli Lilly to supply 300,000 doses of its antibody treatment to the US for $300 million. Not cheap!
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-announces-agreement-us-government-supply-300000-vials

"Lilly anticipates manufacturing up to one million doses of bamlanivimab 700 mg by the end of 2020 – with 100,000 doses ready to ship within days of authorization – for use around the world. The supply of Lilly's antibody therapy is expected to increase substantially beginning in Q1 2021, as additional manufacturing resources come online throughout the year."

Doesn't even work?

No use to hospitalised they said

Have to take it onset

timsey tiger · 28-10-2020 07:07PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Doesn't even work?

No use to hospitalised they said

Have to take it onset

I guess they are wasting their shareholders money so. Serves them right for investing in big pharma, wha?

hmmm · 28-10-2020 07:10PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Have to take it onset

It made sense that it wouldn't provide much benefit at the point where patients were very sick, I get the impression it was a disappointing result but not a surprise.

There's a separate trial for earlier administration where it would be very surprising if it didn't have an effect. Trump got his Regeneron cocktail very early.

jackboy · 28-10-2020 07:10PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

I guess they are wasting their shareholders money so. Serves them right for investing in big pharma, wha?

Just because it doesn’t work does not mean that they will not sell it. The US government may have already agreed to buy it. Same applies to some of the vaccines in development. The companies will not be paying for those if things do not work out.

hmmm · 28-10-2020 07:12PM

So much misinformation to be tackled.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1321514907536338944

timsey tiger · 28-10-2020 08:45PM

jackboy wrote: »

Just because it doesn’t work does not mean that they will not sell it. The US government may have already agreed to buy it. Same applies to some of the vaccines in development. The companies will not be paying for those if things do not work out.

They won't make much of a profit on one batch, you said it yourself.

MerlinSouthDub · 28-10-2020 09:09PM

hmmm wrote: »

So much misinformation to be tackled.

https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1321514907536338944

The daily telegraph had this story as its main front page headline yesterday. Extraordinary stuff. I know the telegraph has become a bit of rag, but I assumed (wrongly) that some basic journalistic standards were still applied. The decline in reliable news sources is, I feel, one of the great problems of our time.

Gael23 · 28-10-2020 10:11PM

What is considered good efficacy for a vaccine?

hmmm · 28-10-2020 10:42PM

Looks like good results from Regeneron (the cocktail Trump got). The problem is you haven't a hope of getting it as supply is very limited.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates-that-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-significantly-reduced-virus-levels-and-need-for-further-medical-attention-301162255.html

"There was a 1.08 log greater reduction with REGN-COV2 treatment by day 5, which corresponds to REGN-COV2 patients having, on average, a greater than 10-fold reduction in viral load, compared to placebo."

"Treatment with REGN-COV2 reduced COVID-19 related medical visits by 72% in patients with one or more risk factor (including being over 50 years of age; body mass index greater than 30; cardiovascular, metabolic, lung, liver or kidney disease; or immunocompromised status) (combined dose groups; nominal p = 0.0065)."

ShineOn7 · 28-10-2020 10:57PM

hmmm wrote: »

Looks like good results from Regeneron (the cocktail Trump got). The problem is you haven't a hope of getting it as supply is very limited.

Why is supply limited?

It's working very well. They should be moving mountains to increase production

hmmm · 28-10-2020 11:02PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why is supply limited?

It's working very well. They should be moving mountains to increase production

Failure of leadership. Regeneron aren't a charity, Governments needed to pay for this capability.

https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1321562769603338241

Hmmzis · 28-10-2020 11:11PM

hmmm wrote: »

Looks like good results from Regeneron (the cocktail Trump got). The problem is you haven't a hope of getting it as supply is very limited.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/regenerons-covid-19-outpatient-trial-prospectively-demonstrates-that-regn-cov2-antibody-cocktail-significantly-reduced-virus-levels-and-need-for-further-medical-attention-301162255.html

"There was a 1.08 log greater reduction with REGN-COV2 treatment by day 5, which corresponds to REGN-COV2 patients having, on average, a greater than 10-fold reduction in viral load, compared to placebo."

"Treatment with REGN-COV2 reduced COVID-19 related medical visits by 72% in patients with one or more risk factor (including being over 50 years of age; body mass index greater than 30; cardiovascular, metabolic, lung, liver or kidney disease; or immunocompromised status) (combined dose groups; nominal p = 0.0065)."

They would be of incredible utility in nursing homes and any long term care facility. The moment any one resident or carer tests positive, all residents get a shot of this.
The other use would be in cancer patients undergoing active treatment.
With enough doses Covid ward personell could be protected before vaccines arrive.

Real shame the doses are what they are.

hmmm · 28-10-2020 11:14PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

They would be of incredible utility in nursing homes and any long term care facility. The moment any one resident or carer tests positive, all residents get a shot of this.
The other use would be in cancer patients undergoing active treatment.
With enough doses Covid ward personell could be protected before vaccines arrive.

Real shame the doses are what they are.

Any idea how durable the antibodies you'd receive would be? i.e. if you get a shot of this how long could you be expected to produce a robust immune response.

Roche are apparently responsible for manufacturing it in Europe.

Voltex · 28-10-2020 11:37PM

hmmm wrote: »

Any idea how durable the antibodies you'd receive would be? i.e. if you get a shot of this how long could you be expected to produce a robust immune response.

Roche are apparently responsible for manufacturing it in Europe.

Half-life is roughly 1 month.

cgc5483 · 28-10-2020 11:53PM

That's a press release from the company and whilst numbers like 72% and 57%sound great when you look at the real data the placebo group only had 6.5% medical visits versus 2.8% in treatment. Definition of a medical visit is quite wide ranging as well. Shows some promise but again probably only very early stage disease works best.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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