Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:25PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. The focus on schools is a moot subject, and the interest it garners is baffling and not relevant to the management of the crisis. To clarify : it is certain that virus transmission in happening in school settings. But it is not any overwhelming factor in the spread of the virus in the community, and well below a level that would be deemed strong enough to suggest closure of schools was a necessary containment step. For the greater understanding, reduction of unnecessary worry of students, parents, and teachers, a shelving of this topic would be to the overall benefit of all. Focusing on limiting social contacts, hand washing discipline, and mask wearing are the key needed actions at this time. Concern about schools distracts from these key actions. (Moderators, perhaps this post could be made a permanent link, which would save other posters from confusion on this topic ?)

Da Fuq?

Well that's that then, discussion over.

:pac: :pac::pac:

khalessi · 28-10-2020 02:25PM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Absolutely. There’s a good few posters looking for a “gotcha” moment with regards to schools. They won’t be happy til there’s a massive amount of cases in schools and they have to close. Then they’ll say “I told you so”.

It’s quite strange to see so many people want to close down schools. You’d suspect an ulterior motive but maybe that’s getting into conspiracy theory territory.

Most of the people I see posting want schools to stay open, teachers included. What I do see is questioning regards the numbers of children who are covid positive in schools, the queries about the covid app, the questions about why there are differences in defining what is a close contact in schools compared to other sectors.

mloc123 · 28-10-2020 02:26PM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Absolutely. There’s a good few posters looking for a “gotcha” moment with regards to schools. They won’t be happy til there’s a massive amount of cases in schools and they have to close. Then they’ll say “I told you so”.

It’s quite strange to see so many people want to close down schools. You’d suspect an ulterior motive but maybe that’s getting into conspiracy theory territory.

I think it is similar to people happy that gyms or pubs are closed etc... Like the guy that was happy pubs are closed now because he used to be a big drinker.

Their social outlet or hobby is now closed, and they think that schools should therefore be closed.

28-10-2020 02:27PM

Boggles wrote: »

Point remains.

It's not research, it's a simulator.

I will let the BMJ have the final say

It is an unusual paper for us since it is not "research" in the sense of
testing a hypothesis with a study design that collects new data. Neither is it a traditional discussion of
ideas such as might be seen in the "Analysis" section. We have for some time been contemplating a
new section in the journal specifically for papers that present a lot of data or have complex methods yet
are not research as such

My point still stands, some will go to extreme lengths to dismiss anything which challenges their preconceived view, even so far as to completely dismiss the BMJ as a reputable journal, while simultaneously accusing others of the same.

This article was chosen by me at random, to test this hypothesis, and I am definitely rejecting the null hypnotises in this instance.
And the effect has been replicated with the two further studies from Norway and Germany that I linked. Write it up and I may be eligible for publication. However is likely to be rejected, as finding rank hypocrisy on the internet is nothing new

khalessi · 28-10-2020 02:28PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. The focus on schools is a moot subject, and the interest it garners is baffling and not relevant to the management of the crisis. To clarify : it is certain that virus transmission in happening in school settings. But it is not any overwhelming factor in the spread of the virus in the community, and well below a level that would be deemed strong enough to suggest closure of schools was a necessary containment step. For the greater understanding, reduction of unnecessary worry of students, parents, and teachers, a shelving of this topic would be to the overall benefit of all. Focusing on limiting social contacts, hand washing discipline, and mask wearing are the key needed actions at this time. Concern about schools distracts from these key actions. (Moderators, perhaps this post could be made a permanent link, which would save other posters from confusion on this topic ?)

Interesting that you follow the NPHET/Dept of Ed mantra all is fine nothing to see here. Maybe focussing on carrying out proper test and tracing and having proper definitions of close contacts that is equal to other sectors

seamus · 28-10-2020 02:28PM

JP100 wrote: »

Another study this time from the University of Edinburgh highlighting how the reopening of schools causes the R transmission rate to surge.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-r-rate-school-closures-lockdown-lancet-study-b1251617.html

It is very important to point out that there's no smoking gun or gotcha here.

The analysis looked at the change in R-rate for schools closed -v- schools opened (as well as workplaces, travel, etc).

This did not take into account different types of reopening (or closing), different precautions in place, or indeed differences in class densities, arrangement of school days, and all of the other factors which would make schools a better or worse place for the spread of a virus.

As a result, the margin of confidence is very wide.

"Internationally and without regard to the regime, opening schools is associated with an average 24% increase in R-value"

and

"Schools are not associated in Ireland with any significant spread of the disease"

are not statements that conflict with eachother. There are 131 countries in this study and a single number averaged across them all. For some, the opening of schools will be associated with skyrocketing numbers. For others, openings school will have had little to no effect.

What this study should prompt is a deeper investigation to compare bad countries versus good countries to see what the major differences are. For us, it should prompt an evaluation of our data to ensure that we haven't missed something.

But for the time being, there's nothing game-changing in that study.

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I will let the BMJ have the final say

My point still stands, some will go to extreme lengths to dismiss anything which challenges their preconceived view, even so far as to completely dismiss the BMJ as a reputable journal, while simultaneously accusing others of the same.

This article was chosen by me at random, to test this hypothesis

Sure it was. :pac:

Too funny.

We will leave it there.

wirelessdude01 · 28-10-2020 02:30PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Merkel to announce some form of lockdown imminently, as is Macron. Who would have said last May that Europe would be back in lockdowns again less than 6 months later..2020 just doesn't stop shocking us

Be interesting to see what their versions look like compared to this mishmash that we have.

mloc123 · 28-10-2020 02:30PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Be interesting to see what their versions look like compared to this mishmash that we have.

Co worker in Berlin mentioned what "red" lockdown looks like... And it is almost identical to our level 5.

PokeHerKing · 28-10-2020 02:31PM

Imagine actually thinking a classroom filled with 30plus 17/18 year olds wont spread the virus but a house party with the same crowd would.

Its such a strange thing to see people actually espouse this stupidity.

wadacrack · 28-10-2020 02:32PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. The focus on schools is a moot subject, and the interest it garners is baffling and not relevant to the management of the crisis. To clarify : it is certain that virus transmission in happening in school settings. But it is not any overwhelming factor in the spread of the virus in the community, and well below a level that would be deemed strong enough to suggest closure of schools was a necessary containment step. For the greater understanding, reduction of unnecessary worry of students, parents, and teachers, a shelving of this topic would be to the overall benefit of all. Focusing on limiting social contacts, hand washing discipline, and mask wearing are the key needed actions at this time. Concern about schools distracts from these key actions. (Moderators, perhaps this post could be made a permanent link, which would save other posters from confusion on this topic ?)

its the lack of transparency and integrity by the government which is most concerning. Talking about keeping people safe but schools and colleges are making containment much more challenging. Any government denying this would make me question their motives

28-10-2020 02:38PM

Boggles wrote: »

Sure it was. :pac:

Too funny.

We will leave it there.

Must you edit everything you quote to leave a certain impression? Are you that insecure in what you relate that you feel the need to eternally paraphrase in the hope that people wont notice what you dont want them to?

Fr_Dougal · 28-10-2020 02:39PM

If you look at recent headlines, restrictions are taking their toll on the wellbeing of many families.

Shocking what’s happening.

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Must you edit everything you quote to leave a certain impression?

I didn't edit anything, I highlighted a sentence.

Your sentence.

Sheepdish1 · 28-10-2020 02:42PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

If you look at recent headlines, restrictions are taking their toll on the wellbeing of many families.

Shocking what’s happening.

What headlines ?

Loafing Oaf · 28-10-2020 02:43PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

If you look at recent headlines, restrictions are taking their toll on the wellbeing of many families.

Shocking what’s happening.

Yeah because murder-suicides never happen in 'normal times'...

28-10-2020 02:44PM

Has anyone asked the question as to why we now see cases rising in the 5-14 year olds faster than any other group in relative terms. 8 weeks after school returned, the first 6 weeks of which saw a fall in this group in relative terms. Maybe because their parents got it first?

Wolf359f · 28-10-2020 02:44PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Imagine actually thinking a classroom filled with 30plus 17/18 year olds wont spread the virus but a house party with the same crowd would.

Its such a strange thing to see people actually espouse this stupidity.

Nobody is saying in school transmission is not occuring. Anyone saying that is living in fantasy land.
People are saying the transmission in school is lower than in the community and doesn't appear to be driving spread.

There's many differences between a classroom and a house party. To compare the 2 is so far out of touch it would be funny if we weren't in the midst of a pandemic.

28-10-2020 02:44PM

Boggles wrote: »

I didn't edit anything, I highlighted a sentence.

Your sentence.

Selectively quote would be the fairer term

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:44PM

wadacrack wrote: »

its the lack of transparency and integrity by the government which is most concerning. Talking about keeping people safe but schools and colleges are making containment much more challenging. Any government denying this would make me question their motives

IMHO, the cabinet will not be overly fussed if the unions force their hand into doing something about schools.

They can absolve themselves whilst blaming someone else. Political Jackpot!

Because if anyone can tell me with a straight face that the below is a "robust" system of track and test in schools, then you are either Norma Foley or delusional.

School told maskless students were not close contacts with SNA despite 'intimate care level'

wirelessdude01 · 28-10-2020 02:45PM

Sheepdish1 wrote: »

What headlines ?

Guessing they are referring to Kantutk and Ballinteer.

seamus · 28-10-2020 02:45PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Co worker in Berlin mentioned what "red" lockdown looks like... And it is almost identical to our level 5.

It's kind of crazy the amount of vigour Irish people get into with the self-deprecation in this kind of situation.

While you're sitting in the middle of this, yes it seems like a chaotic mess, yes it seems like everything is on fire and the fire brigade are sitting on their hands.

But when you stick your head up and take a look around, you see every other country in similar straits.

In fact, we appear to be one of the few countries in Europe right now getting a grip on wave 2. Even Italy and Germany who were looking good, have succumbed. Sweden for all its contrarian majesty, is losing control again.

We need to spend less time looking for reasons why we're worse than everyone else, and more time worrying about what's actually happening at home.

If we had followed the rest of Europe, we'd be staring down the barrel of 2,000 cases/day right now.

wirelessdude01 · 28-10-2020 02:47PM

seamus wrote: »

If we had followed the rest of Europe, we'd be staring down the barrel of 2,000 cases/day right now.

Didn't Leo want us to model ourselves on Belgium at one stage?

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Has anyone asked the question as to why we now see cases rising in the 5-14 year olds faster than any other group in relative terms. 8 weeks after school returned, the first 6 weeks of which saw a fall in this group in relative terms. Maybe because their parents got it first?

Parents who have been monk like in their approach with the only weak point is their children who spend the days indoors with 100s of others finally copping on that maybe they didn't get infected off the petrol pump handle and it was the kids who brought it into the house and now they are insisted the kids get tested?

Just a thought.

seamus · 28-10-2020 02:49PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Yeah because murder-suicides never happen in 'normal times'...

I wouldn't hand-wave it away so glibly.

Tusla and the public health clinics are completely overwhelmed with child protection cases at the moment.

It was at its peak during full lockdown, but the imposition of level 3 has had an effect. If you consider for many children in abusive homes, school is the only respite they get from a sh1tty home life, except for the weekends where they might get a sleepover or at least a couple of hours at the cinema.

A considerable uptick in alcohol consumption, combined with the added stresses of lockdowns, has driven an increase in the incidence and severity of domestic abuse.

wirelessdude01 · 28-10-2020 02:50PM

Boggles wrote: »

Parents who have been monk like in their approach with the only weak point is their children who spend the days indoors with 100s of others finally copping on that maybe they didn't get infected off the petrol pump handle and it was the kids who brought it into the house and now they are insisted the kids get tested?

Just a thought.

I know of one family that had kept themselves to themselves for months. No family visiting. Bang 3 weeks after schools went back they all had covid.

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:51PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

I know of one family that had kept themselves to themselves for months. No family visiting. Bang 3 weeks after schools went back they all had covid.

Petrol Pump Handle or Doorbell.

Wasn't the kids.

khalessi · 28-10-2020 02:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Has anyone asked the question as to why we now see cases rising in the 5-14 year olds faster than any other group in relative terms. 8 weeks after school returned, the first 6 weeks of which saw a fall in this group in relative terms. Maybe because their parents got it first?

Maybe they didn't, I know some parents who were tested and negative so ehh that would mean.....??? Ohh they could have gotten it from another kid??

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-10-2020 02:53PM

It will be interesting to see the swab data later and compare with case numbers.

I am still at a loss to understand how in the last 2 weeks we've had 219 more cases than positive swabs.

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I have the backlog at -219 now, but only calculated over 14 days. These are exact numbers, so take with some degree of inaccuracy as swab=/=case

is_that_so · 28-10-2020 02:53PM

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Didn't Leo want us to model ourselves on Belgium at one stage?

Just in how they are looking at their numbers. We're now on a diet of 5,7 and 14 day averages anyway.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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