Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

froog · 27-10-2020 11:38PM

amazing how a lot of posters on boards and some people in the media have access to the phase 3 results from the various vaccine manufacturers before anyone else.

Stheno · 27-10-2020 11:39PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

You didn’t see prime time then?

Go on. What did they say?

Funsterdelux · 28-10-2020 12:12AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I'd rather scoop my eyes out with a spoon than watch prime time

Nasty,

Although, they could be a nice accompaniment to your shoe

:pac:

Kermit.de.frog · 28-10-2020 12:14AM

UK now weighing full national lockdown according to tomorrow's Guardian and Telegraph.

Renjit · 28-10-2020 12:17AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

UK now weighing full national lockdown according to tomorrow's Guardian and Telegraph.

Looks like my plans of UK visit are thwarted yet again :pac:

hmmm · 28-10-2020 12:24AM

Arghus wrote: »

I would still view this as extremely early days and I don't want to jump to any conclusions. We could have turned the corner, I hope we have, but, equally, what way the virus numbers move can take us by surprise. How many times have unforeseen outcomes come our way since March?

You could see from the Level 3 figures for Dublin that it had stabilised things, but then it had begun to accelerate again. So Level 3+ is perhaps the sweet spot (I'm not quite sure what the + is, but closing the indoor potential superspreading locations has to be key). Level 3+ as I'll call it should be enough to stabilise cases, but not enough to get them to fall.

Hopefully we're seeing the same leveling off now countrywide, and with most people doing their best to obey the current restrictions we should see a fall. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect an R of .5, so we might be stuck here for a while. But once we get the case numbers down to somewhere relatively low (say 100 a day) we can hopefully get a longer runup to the next wave with restrictions of the 3+ range.

Then we're into the new year, and we're going to get vaccinations. I saw an interview with Professor Leung from Hong Kong who was one of the leading experts on this from back in January/February and he thinks we are half-way through this pandemic. Gottlieb in the US thinks the wave we are in now will be the worst. So overall we are not quite at the turning point, but we are hopefully not far off.

Stheno · 28-10-2020 12:26AM

hmmm wrote: »

You could see from the Level 3 figures for Dublin that it had stabilised things, but then it had begun to accelerate again. So Level 3+ is perhaps the sweet spot (I'm not quite sure what the + is, but closing the indoor potential superspreading locations has to be key). Level 3+ as I'll call it should be enough to stabilise cases, but not enough to get them to fall.

Hopefully we're seeing the same leveling off now countrywide, and with most people doing their best to obey the current restrictions we should see a fall. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect an R of .5, so we might be stuck here for a while. But once we get the case numbers down to somewhere relatively low (say 100 a day) we can hopefully get a longer runup to the next wave with restrictions of the 3+ range.

Then we're into the new year, and we're going to get vaccinations. I saw an interview with Professor Leung from Hong Kong who was one of the leading experts on this from back in January/February and he thinks we are half-way through this pandemic. Gottlieb in the US thinks the wave we are in now will be the worst. So overall we are not quite at the turning point, but we are hopefully not far off.

Thank you.

In my mind I keep thinking April 2021 is when we might see some levelling off

cnocbui · 28-10-2020 12:28AM

froog wrote: »

amazing how a lot of posters on boards and some people in the media have access to the phase 3 results from the various vaccine manufacturers before anyone else.

Amazing how drug companies like Astra Zeneca blab about how great their vaccine is that is still undergoing tertiry trials.

copeyhagen · 28-10-2020 12:32AM

hmmm wrote: »

You could see from the Level 3 figures for Dublin that it had stabilised things, but then it had begun to accelerate again. So Level 3+ is perhaps the sweet spot (I'm not quite sure what the + is, but closing the indoor potential superspreading locations has to be key). Level 3+ as I'll call it should be enough to stabilise cases, but not enough to get them to fall.

Hopefully we're seeing the same leveling off now countrywide, and with most people doing their best to obey the current restrictions we should see a fall. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect an R of .5, so we might be stuck here for a while. But once we get the case numbers down to somewhere relatively low (say 100 a day) we can hopefully get a longer runup to the next wave with restrictions of the 3+ range.

Then we're into the new year, and we're going to get vaccinations. I saw an interview with Professor Leung from Hong Kong who was one of the leading experts on this from back in January/February and he thinks we are half-way through this pandemic. Gottlieb in the US thinks the wave we are in now will be the worst. So overall we are not quite at the turning point, but we are hopefully not far off.

God thats depressing to read

Arghus · 28-10-2020 12:36AM

copeyhagen wrote: »

God thats depressing to read

I think it's actually quite optimistic!

Loafing Oaf · 28-10-2020 12:40AM

hmmm wrote: »

But once we get the case numbers down to somewhere relatively low (say 100 a day) we can hopefully get a longer runup to the next wave with restrictions of the 3+ range.

But if we do get case numbers down to that level, is it not likely there will be a broader 'opening up' for the Christmas period, allowing people to attend mass, visit family etc.?

NIMAN · 28-10-2020 12:47AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But if we do get case numbers down to that level, is it not likely there will be a broader 'opening up' for the Christmas period, allowing people to attend mass, visit family etc.?

Have we more or less not been told if we do well with the L5 lockdown, it will be reduced to L3 for December, and that's the best it's gonna be?

That's my take on everything I've heard this last week.

L3 is not going to let us have a decent Xmas. Far from it.

Away With The Fairies · 28-10-2020 12:49AM

I'd like to think the numbers are getting better today but is contact tracing still shíte?

Stheno · 28-10-2020 12:51AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'd like to think the numbers are getting better today but is contact tracing still shíte?

Oh no its all peachy according to Tony

Stheno · 28-10-2020 12:52AM

Arghus wrote: »

I think it's actually quite optimistic!

Same here!

caveat emptor · 28-10-2020 12:52AM

Depressing? Yes, Predictable? Yes.

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1321166020485275648?s=20

hmmm · 28-10-2020 12:52AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But if we do get case numbers down to that level, is it not likely there will be a broader 'opening up' for the Christmas period, allowing people to attend mass, visit family etc.?

The virus isn't going to take Christmas off unfortunately. We could have one "blow-out" week, but we then have an explosion of cases afterwards. I know in our house we would have a large dinner, about 4 generations, and then visit relatives afterwards. We can't do that in a pandemic, one infected person and you could have an entire family infected.

I didn't see the Prime Time tonight, but I'm glad to hear that one of the people they interviewed made the point that we can't (shouldn't) have a normal Christmas this year. If we have a different Christmas this year, we'll have everyone alive around the table next year.

Stheno · 28-10-2020 12:53AM

NIMAN wrote: »

Have we more or less not been told if we do well with the L5 lockdown, it will be reduced to L3 for December, and that's the best it's gonna be?

That's my take on everything I've heard this last week.

L3 is not going to let us have a decent Xmas. Far from it.

Yep pretty much

GT89 · 28-10-2020 01:03AM

hmmm wrote: »

The virus isn't going to take Christmas off unfortunately. We could have one "blow-out" week, but we then have an explosion of cases afterwards. I know in our house we would have a large dinner, about 4 generations, and then visit relatives afterwards. We can't do that in a pandemic, one infected person and you could have an entire family infected.

I didn't see the Prime Time tonight, but I'm glad to hear that one of the people they interviewed made the point that we can't (shouldn't) have a normal Christmas this year. If we have a different Christmas this year, we'll have everyone alive around the table next year.

And will you be saying the same next year? Don't remember anyone cancelling christmas dinner during the 2009 pandemic

Loafing Oaf · 28-10-2020 01:04AM

hmmm wrote: »

The virus isn't going to take Christmas off unfortunately. We could have one "blow-out" week, but we then have an explosion of cases afterwards. I know in our house we would have a large dinner, about 4 generations, and then visit relatives afterwards. We can't do that in a pandemic, one infected person and you could have an entire family infected.

I know that but there will be enormous pressure on the government to facilitate something like a 'normal Christmas' if we do succeed in suppressing the virus again through the current lockdown.

Funsterdelux · 28-10-2020 01:06AM

GT89 wrote: »

And will you be saying the same next year? Don't remember anyone cancelling christmas dinner during the 2009 pandemic

I tried to cancel it but the family wasnt having any of it.

hmmm · 28-10-2020 01:09AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I know that but there will be enormous pressure on the government to facilitate something like a 'normal Christmas' if we do succeed in suppressing the virus again through the current lockdown.

Serious question - what can the government do to facilitate a normal Christmas?

We know where the virus spreads rapidly if allowed - indoors, extended close contact, poor ventilation. A typical Christmas day in an Irish household, with multiple generations, all the windows closed, a long dinner. It's perfect for spread.

And then many of us hop in our cars and go around visiting all the relatives.

marno21 · 28-10-2020 01:09AM

We had 3 months of Level 2-esque restrictions from the end of June til late September before we had to resume severe restrictions.

If we are down to 50 cases per day with an R0 of 0.5 in December we can surely manage a month of Level 2 and go back to Level 3 in January to stabilise the growth.

We should be seeing the first vaccinations in January also all going well.

normanoffside · 28-10-2020 01:10AM

Stheno wrote: »

Did she seriously say that?

https://twitter.com/rte_primetime/status/1321193946513592321?s=21

Arghus · 28-10-2020 01:11AM

GT89 wrote: »

And will you be saying the same next year? Don't remember anyone cancelling christmas dinner during the 2009 pandemic

Because it wasn't as dangerous or as widespread. That's why nobody cancelled Christmas Dinner in 2009.

It's fairly simple really.

stephenjmcd · 28-10-2020 01:13AM

normanoffside wrote: »

https://twitter.com/rte_primetime/status/1321193946513592321?s=21

Oh wow. What can you say hearing that, time to change station at that point

nacho libre · 28-10-2020 01:14AM

There will be even more Sheebeens around the country if we stay at level 3 throughout December. Also they will have to lift the restrictions on non essential travel outside your county because non compliance will soar if they don't. If cases do get down to 100 a day by late November/early December, the pressure to go to level 2 will be enormous.

Thierry12 · 28-10-2020 01:15AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Oh wow. What can you say hearing that, time to change station at that point

Some bastards

Sickens me paying that tv licence

GT89 · 28-10-2020 01:16AM

hmmm wrote: »

Serious question - what can the government do to facilitate a normal Christmas?

We know where the virus spreads rapidly if allowed - indoors, extended close contact, poor ventilation. A typical Christmas day in an Irish household, with multiple generations, all the windows closed, a long dinner. It's perfect for spread.

And then many of us hop in our cars and go around visiting all the relatives.

It should be up to people if they want to go to christmas dinner or not. I have never been forced to attend any Christmas dinners in my adult life. If people want to have christmas dinners or attend one then fine if they do then they should be allowed to do so.

I believe people should be free to make their own decisions as to what they feel is safe. Leave the pubs, shops and restaurants open and if you don't feel safe don't go like in Sweden. Same with masks and social distancing if you feel safer wearing a mask and/or staying 2m from other people fine but don't make everyone else do the same.

GT89 · 28-10-2020 01:19AM

Arghus wrote: »

Because it wasn't as dangerous or as widespread. That's why nobody cancelled Christmas Dinner in 2009.

It's fairly simple really.

It was still a pandemic though. I keep hearing people say we are in the middle of global pandemic as if it were a big deal almost like wwIII but don't remember same in 2009.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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