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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #6662
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    seamus wrote: »
    It's funny to see all the same people who were so quick to dismiss any suggestion that things were remotely looking positive, now desperate to find reasons why it's not. Claiming that this is sudden, unexpected, a blip, down to level 5, down to no contact reacing or down to mid term break.

    Except that this trend started at least 10 days ago, and we've been watching it.

    The brief plateau when Dublin was in level 3, lasted all of five days. We're now twice as long into this one and the downward trend firmly entrenched.

    Incredible the lengths people will go to, to fortify their own misery.

    Myocarditis has disappeared from here for a couple of months but is raring it’s head again.


  • #6663
    suicide_circus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,801 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    Ah man der low ballin us wit dem numbers today


  • #6664
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,917 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    jackboy wrote: »
    Outdoor dining at Christmas is not a luxury, it sounds like some sort of horrible torture.

    could be nice, with lights and decorations, chance of a white Christmas too ...


  • #6665
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    MelbourneMan wrote: »
    There is in fact, no scandal. Possibly a little jumping to conclusions, but the matter can be cleared up :

    Community transfer occurs wherever there is interraction of people. Whether that is in a school, shop, office, factory, public house, or whatever is rather incidental to determining the action to take. In each case, the importance and societal and economic impact put on each of these elements is the predominant influence on the decision making process guiding corrective action.

    It is curious that the general population seems fixated on the locus of transmission. It is perhaps motivated and indicative of conscious or unconsious bias in the discussion by interested parties in preserving continuity in their own sector rather than a true analysis. But it is largely an irrelevant discussion, and misses the point.

    In short, the where is, not quite, but almost by the way, in the determining of the restrictions to apply.

    Thanks for your opinion. Sounds a lot like "the weak suffer what they must". "sacrificial lambs" and "the greater good" all rolled into one. Thanks. Two questions while I have you.....
    • Are schools "safe"?
    • Should they reopen even if we can't see the transmission that occurs and the fact they can infect vulnerable family members and drive the filling up of hospitals and ICU that we don't have?


    Pretty sure they are not. Home schooling is coming into focus for mine now.


  • #6666
    I Am The Law
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 657 ✭✭✭I Am The Law


    MelbourneMan wrote: »
    There is in fact, no scandal. Possibly a little jumping to conclusions, but the matter can be cleared up :

    Community transfer occurs wherever there is interraction of people. Whether that is in a school, shop, office, factory, public house, or whatever is rather incidental to determining the action to take. In each case, the importance and societal and economic impact put on each of these elements is the predominant influence on the decision making process guiding corrective action.

    It is curious that the general population seems fixated on the locus of transmission. It is perhaps motivated and indicative of conscious or unconsious bias in the discussion by interested parties in preserving continuity in their own sector rather than a true analysis. But it is largely an irrelevant discussion, and misses the point.

    In short, the where is, not quite, but almost by the way, in the determining of the restrictions to apply.

    Pain in the eyes but it's the headache, thats the worst part.


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  • #6667
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Myocarditis has disappeared from here for a couple of months but is raring it’s head again.

    Perhaps call your local out of hours Doc or dail 999


  • #6668
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,256 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Hi Norman, Have a read. I posted the article as did sea breezes during the summer. It's like anything, you can only see a problem if you look at it. (MRI in this case)

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-19-can-cause-heart-damageeven-if-you-are-asymptomatic/


    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?referringSource=articleShare

    You said that it is known that Asymptomatic adults have long term issues (lung and Heart damage).

    The articles you quotes say 'there is a possibility' that it may cause such damage.


    There's a big difference between the two statements.

    I could say that there is little possibility that Asymptomatic carriers will develop long term issues and I wouldn't be misrepresenting that articles.


  • #6669
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Don’t think that article is the smoking gun you think it is

    Yeh I'm sure there are holes in it and is more to the story seeing as it is not mainstream caution/advice that asymptomatic infection can result in lung damage, but either way there is evidence that it shouldnt be dismissed either


  • #6670
    Fast Twitch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 182 ✭✭Fast Twitch


    seamus wrote: »
    It's funny to see all the same people who were so quick to dismiss any suggestion that things were remotely looking positive, now desperate to find reasons why it's not. Claiming that this is sudden, unexpected, a blip, down to level 5, down to no contact reacing or down to mid term break.

    Except that this trend started at least 10 days ago, and we've been watching it.

    The brief plateau when Dublin was in level 3, lasted all of five days. We're now twice as long into this one and the downward trend firmly entrenched.

    Incredible the lengths people will go to, to fortify their own misery.

    Seamus, David McCullough wants his smug head back. He says you're in breach of copyright and it's his intellectual property ;)


  • #6671
    Solli
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 116 ✭✭Solli


    normanoffside wrote: »
    So they're lungs were damaged without them even noticing. Doesn't sound feasible tbh.

    Really? Then read this “the percentage of asymptomatic cases that exhibit lung damage from the virus is around 50%”
    Source:
    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200811/asymptomatic-covid-silent-but-maybe-not-harmless


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  • #6672
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    normanoffside wrote: »
    You said that it is known that Asymptomatic adults have long term issues (lung and Heart damage).

    The articles you quotes say 'there is a possibility' that it may cause such damage.


    There's a big difference between the two statements.

    I could say that there is little possibility that Asymptomatic carriers will develop long term issues and I wouldn't be misrepresenting that articles.

    Seems there are reports that incidence of myocarditis associated with Covid my have been overplayed by some over eager researchers
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1054880720301046


  • #6673
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,592 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    seamus wrote: »
    It's funny to see all the same people who were so quick to dismiss any suggestion that things were remotely looking positive, now desperate to find reasons why it's not. Claiming that this is sudden, unexpected, a blip, down to level 5, down to no contact reacing or down to mid term break.

    Except that this trend started at least 10 days ago, and we've been watching it.

    We were informed more than 10 days ago by public health doctors that contact tracing had collapsed.

    "Thrown in the towel" was the phrase used as far as I remember.

    It was 10 days ago or so when NPHET told us several times, that track and trace was no longer functioning because of wide scale community transmission.

    Highlighting that is not peddling misery, it's a fact.

    Personally I am not arrogant enough to write that off as just a coincidence yet.


  • #6674
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    normanoffside wrote: »
    You said that it is known that Asymptomatic adults have long term issues (lung and Heart damage).

    The articles you quotes say 'there is a possibility' that it may cause such damage.


    There's a big difference between the two statements.

    I could say that there is little possibility that Asymptomatic carriers will develop long term issues and I wouldn't be misrepresenting that articles.

    Hi Norman, I was going to just leave it an let it soak in. I've had this argument with many posters in July. How is you scientific literacy? I can post charts, papers, p -values. until the cows come home.

    I posted a link to a peer reviewed paper.
    • did you read it
    • did you understand it

    Here's my response I prepared earlier. Let me know your thoughts though. 30th of July to be exact :pac:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114174175&postcount=2427
    caveat emptor wrote: »
    I got to love the minimisers on here who stick there head in the sand daily about the seriousness this poses.

    I bet during aids HIV epidemic it was easier to be ignorant.

    any who I digress. I'd hope that there are no long term consequences for people. There clearly are people who got over this and are grand.
    There is no evidence that this can't fvck you up big time.

    This was the most morbidly interesting study I've read this week. (the peer reviewed airborne one coming in second)
    Based on the majority who recovered at home!!!!

    The study below is incredibly shocking. Most didn't go to hospital.
    This could absolutely explain some of the long term effects people are experiencing. (you kinda need your heart pumping on all cylinders.
    Now by all means go ahead and minimise, bull****, confound.
    I've highlighted the pertinent points for the non readers among us.

    Won't change the conclusion. If this doesn't make you take it seriously you didn't understand it.
    Main Outcomes and Measures
    Demographic characteristics,
    cardiac blood markers, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging were obtained.
    Comparisons were made with age-matched and sex-matched control groups of healthy volunteers (n = 50) and risk factor–matched patients (n = 57).
    Of the 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19, 67 (67%) recovered at home, while 33 (33%) required hospitalization.
    At the time of CMR, high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) was detectable (3 pg/mL or greater) in 71 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (71%) and significantly elevated (13.9 pg/mL or greater) in 5 patients (5%).
    A total of 78 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 (78%) had abnormal CMR findings, including raised myocardial native T1 (n = 73), raised myocardial native T2 (n = 60), myocardial late gadolinium enhancement (n = 32), and pericardial enhancement (n = 22).
    There was a small but significant difference between patients who recovered at home vs in the hospital for native T1 mapping (median [IQR], 1122 [1113-1132] ms vs 1143 [1131-1156] ms; P = .02) but not for native T2 mapping or hsTnT levels.
    Conclusions and Relevance In this study of a cohort of German patients recently recovered from COVID-19 infection, CMR revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and time from the original diagnosis.
    These findings indicate the need for ongoing investigation of the long-term cardiovascular consequences of COVID-19.
    The median (IQR) time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and CMR was 71 (64-92) days. Of the 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19, 67 (67%) recovered at home, while 33 (33%) required hospitalization.
    That's 9 and a half weeks to 13 weeks after test


    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2768916


  • #6675
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    seamus wrote: »
    It's funny to see all the same people who were so quick to dismiss any suggestion that things were remotely looking positive, now desperate to find reasons why it's not. Claiming that this is sudden, unexpected, a blip, down to level 5, down to no contact reacing or down to mid term break.

    Except that this trend started at least 10 days ago, and we've been watching it.

    The brief plateau when Dublin was in level 3, lasted all of five days. We're now twice as long into this one and the downward trend firmly entrenched.

    Incredible the lengths people will go to, to fortify their own misery.

    I hope they revise the plan for all levels after this second lockdown. They should have an even better picture of what spikes infection rates and what doesn't. Asking the country to maintain a level 2/3 hybrid could feasibly work imo. Looks like level 3 chokes most superspreaders events.

    It appears also that isolating one county to level 3 isn't as effective.

    People will probably lose their sh1t over another revised plan but that's what you have to do use the data to learn and revise.


  • #6676
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Turtwig wrote: »
    I hope they revise the plan for all levels after this second lockdown. They should have an even better picture of what spikes infection rates and what doesn't. Asking the country to maintain a level 2/3 hybrid could feasibly work imo. Looks like level 3 chokes most superspreaders events.

    It appears also that isolating one county to level 3 isn't as effective.

    People will probably lose their sh1t over another revised plan but that's what you have to do use the data to learn and revise.

    Thats a sensible suggestion tbh

    Done well it would be a good.idea


  • #6677
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Seems there are reports that incidence of myocarditis associated with Covid my have been overplayed by some over eager researchers
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1054880720301046

    That's of people who died. Why not look at the living?

    Please scrutinise this study if you are not busy.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?referringSource=articleShare


  • #6678
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,100 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Turtwig wrote: »
    I hope they revise the plan for all levels after this second lockdown. They should have an even better picture of what spikes infection rates and what doesn't. Asking the country to maintain a level 2/3 hybrid could feasibly work imo. Looks like level 3 chokes most superspreaders events.

    It appears also that isolating one county to level 3 isn't as effective.

    People will probably lose their sh1t over another revised plan but that's what you have to do use the data to learn and revise.

    What would your hybrid 2-3 look like?

    That does seem to be a realistic option going forward


  • #6679
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Boggles wrote: »
    We were informed more than 10 days ago by public health doctors that contact tracing had collapsed.

    "Thrown in the towel" was the phrase used as far as I remember.

    It was 10 days ago or so when NPHET told us several times, that track and trace was no longer functioning because of wide scale community transmission.

    Highlighting that is not peddling misery, it's a fact.

    Personally I am not arrogant enough to write that off as just a coincidence yet.
    Tony Holohan said today that the contact tracing issues the weekend before last had mo impact on todays numbers if I heard him right


  • #6680
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,256 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Hi Norman, I was going to just leave it an let it soak in. I've had this argument with many posters in July. How is you scientific literacy? I can post charts, papers, p -values. until the cows come home.

    I posted a link to a peer reviewed paper.
    • did you read it
    • did you understand it

    Here's my response I prepared earlier. Let me know your thoughts though. 30th of July to be exact :pac:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=114174175&postcount=2427


    No I didn't read the articles in full, I am just pointing out the glaring differences that jump out at me between your statements and the conclusions in the articles/studies you've posted.

    For example the one you just posted refers to clearly symptomatic patients (not asymptomatic ones we have been talking about).

    I don't doubt there are some longer term consequences to people who have a had a bad dose and took some time to recover, but even then conclusions can't be made on health outcomes in years to come (Long term).


  • #6681
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Stheno wrote: »
    Tony Holohan said today that the contact tracing issues the weekend before last had mo impact on todays numbers if I heard him right

    He will deflect any criticism of any aspect of the health system.


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  • #6682
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,592 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Stheno wrote: »
    Tony Holohan said today that the contact tracing issues the weekend before last had mo impact on todays numbers if I heard him right

    And when pressed, he said he couldn't know for sure.

    The bould Zara wasn't been fobbed off with a standard tactic Tony uses, bore them to death.

    She got quite feisty.

    Anyway contact tracing didn't just collapse last weekend.


  • #6683
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Boggles wrote: »
    We were informed more than 10 days ago by public health doctors that contact tracing had collapsed.

    "Thrown in the towel" was the phrase used as far as I remember.

    It was 10 days ago or so when NPHET told us several times, that track and trace was no longer functioning because of wide scale community transmission.

    Highlighting that is not peddling misery, it's a fact.

    Personally I am not arrogant enough to write that off as just a coincidence yet.


    But how many contact tracing positive tests would you need to have missed to offset the current observed downwards trend of positivity rates in tests?
    I've no doubt here someone could work this out.

    The numbers posted earlier in this thread by raind and seamus* suggest these missed contacts shouldn't impact overall trends that much.
    *(I apologise if I omitted others)

    Don't get me wrong I don't think we're out of the woods yet but I don't think the overflow of contact tracing will be what influences whether we are or aren't.


  • #6684
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Boggles wrote: »
    And when pressed, he said he couldn't know for sure.

    The bould Zara wasn't been fobbed off with a standard tactic Tony uses, bore them to death.

    She got quite feisty.

    Anyway contact tracing didn't just collapsed last weekend.

    Yes it was entertaining seeing Zara being pushy

    Did you not hear them repeat multiple times that contact tracing is fine now? Three days from test to.trace iirc


  • #6685
    Santy2015
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Good couple of videos by David Higgins on twitter

    https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1321168567199506432?s=21


  • #6686
    Strumms
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,259 ✭✭✭✭Strumms


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    What would your hybrid 2-3 look like?

    That does seem to be a realistic option going forward

    Problem with hybrids... at a guess is with many people having 'difficulty' adhering to hard and fast restrictions. Having hybrid restrictions with all the ambiguity that might probably come with that will only give people more wiggle room... pleading they are adhering to their interpretation...

    Cant do A, B , C.... clear, consice and without ambiguity.


  • #6687
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,053 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    normanoffside wrote: »
    So they're lungs were damaged without them even noticing. Doesn't sound feasible tbh.
    How many smokers do you know? :confused:


  • #6688
    Widdensushi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,723 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Stheno wrote: »
    Yes it was entertaining seeing Zara being pushy

    Did you not hear them repeat multiple times that contact tracing is fine now? Three days from test to.trace iirc

    Selective hearing


  • #6689
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,592 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Stheno wrote: »
    Did you not hear them repeat multiple times that contact tracing is fine now? Three days from test to.trace iirc

    You are familiar with the HSE, correct? :)

    The leader of our country was informed by text a from a journalist tracing had collapsed last week.

    Minister of Health didn't have a scooby.

    The the head of HSE kind of apologized and said he was going to try and achieve 70%.

    "Fine" is a very relative term when you are dealing with that level of incompetence.

    Anyway the public health doctors are tasked with tracing are vocal on twitter.

    They have been raising the alarm for weeks.


  • #6690
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,256 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Ficheall wrote: »
    How many smokers do you know? :confused:

    Most smokers notice they are damaging their lungs.


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  • #6691
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,595 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Turtwig wrote: »
    But how many contact tracing positive tests would you need to have missed to offset the current observed downwards trend of positivity rates in tests?
    I've no doubt here someone could work this out.

    The numbers posted earlier in this thread by raind and seamus* suggest these missed contacts shouldn't impact overall trends that much.
    *(I apologise if I omitted others)

    Don't get me wrong I don't think we're out of the woods yet but I don't think the overflow of contact tracing will be what influences whether we are or aren't.

    Over the last week we did 111k swabs. Approx 6300 positive swabs. 5.7% positivity.

    We would have missed around 11k tests 1400 cases (figures from last week's nphet meeting. 2k people not traced 5.5 cases per contact 13% positivity amount contacts). Some were picked up themselves

    If all 11k tests were missed (and not picked up later by people doing their own contact tracing) and then done. We would be at 122k cases 7700 positive swabs the positivity rate for the last 7 days would be 6.3%.

    Now that's a worst case position. Many of those cases and contacts would have been caught by people doing their own contact tracing. Even missing the whole lot there is significant positive signs.

    The highest psoitivy rate for 7 days was 7.3%. That was 18 October.


This discussion has been closed.
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