Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Stheno · 27-10-2020 07:57PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I don’t buy that we should have gone two weeks previously. I just feel that sitting out November and getting numbers as low as they can possibly go may be a necessary sacrifice for a December which will give retail a fighting chance and allow travel between counties for the last few weeks of December. There needs to be a very careful narrative over the next few weeks to prepare people for as normal as possible a December.

I dont buy we needed level five last week but I may well be wrong

And the narrative in the briefing tonight when asked about people travelling home for Christmas was "no unnecessary travel"

There is not going to be anything like a normal December imho

Plumbthedepths · 27-10-2020 07:58PM

normanoffside wrote: »

How can you be asymptomatic and have long term issues?
If You're asymptomatic you have no symptoms, short or long term.

Ah the Covid paradox a mystery inside an enigma.

Happydays2020 · 27-10-2020 07:58PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry is it just me or is it shocking that the fact that 60-70% of school going aged kids that got infected in Israel were asymptomatic?

The line here was schools were safe to open. We know that adults who were asymptomatic have had longer term issues.

Clearly this is the driver of the current wave and the cause of the resultant lockdown, job losses and restrictions.

It’s not that kids aren’t getting it. It’s that we can’t see them getting it. Hence the massive explosion in community transmission.

This is a scandal.

Big group of people (who are unlikely to be showing symptoms unlike the flu or colds) from 30 separate households hang out together for 6 hours per day in close surroundings, then they visit inter-generational homes for the other 14 hours having meals together etc, then repeat. Sure what could go wrong....

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 07:58PM

normanoffside wrote: »

How can you be asymptomatic and have long term issues?
If You're asymptomatic you have no symptoms, short or long term.

There was a study done relatively recently that showed scarring in the lungs of asymptomatic carriers. I'd guess it's not very common but who knows

Amirani · 27-10-2020 07:59PM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

In the letter on the 15th of October, the modelling estimates 1800-2300 daily cases by 31st October, with 80-110 in ICU.

Level 5 is less than a week old and Level 3 was deemed ineffective based on the above.

The decline in the last few days may prove to be temporary respite, but if not then serious scrutiny should be applied to those models and advice afforded before any return to level 5 is considered after Christmas.

If you listen to how the models are presented, it's always led with: "If we take no action now, then cases COULD reach X by Y date".

This is a negative outcome model, not intended to illustrate the most likely outcome. They will have more models that have a higher probability or being accurate, but when you're dealing with something like ICU capacity, when you don't have much space to play with, then you have to frame decisions around these negative outcomes.

There will be confidence intervals and probabilities associated with the numbers presented in the models, but they're not shared in NPHET briefings as they'd just be misunderstood. Though given they're being misunderstood anyways...

bb1234567 · 27-10-2020 07:59PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321126401131585542
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321153198703452161

And meanwhile we will hopefully be back to relative normality within a month if trends continue the way they are going

normanoffside · 27-10-2020 08:00PM

8k71ps wrote: »

There was a study done relatively recently that showed scarring in the lungs of asymptomatic carriers. I'd guess it's not very common but who knows

So their lungs were damaged without them even noticing. Doesn't sound feasible tbh.

Happydays2020 · 27-10-2020 08:00PM

Stheno wrote: »

I dont buy we needed level five last week but I may well be wronf

And the narrative in the briefing tonight when asked about people travelling home for Christmas was "no unnecessary travel"

There is not going to be anything like a normal December imho

I saw someone here suggest that a nice outcome will be level 5 to level 3 plus on 1 December, and then to signal level 3 (allowing some household visits and travel) by 15/20 December.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 08:01PM

Stheno wrote: »

I dont buy we needed level five last week but I may well be wronf

And the narrative in the briefing tonight when asked about people travelling home for Christmas was "no unnecessary travel"

There is not going to be anything like a normal December imho

If they don't want people to meet their family in another county they're going to have to ban it. I'd say there's almost no way the R rating in December will be low ( it will also be a good test for the schools since they'll have to close windows etc)

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 08:02PM

normanoffside wrote: »

How can you be asymptomatic and have long term issues?
If You're asymptomatic you have no symptoms, short or long term.

Hi Norman, Have a read. I posted the article as did sea breezes during the summer. It's like anything, you can only see a problem if you look at it. (MRI in this case)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-19-can-cause-heart-damageeven-if-you-are-asymptomatic/

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?referringSource=articleShare

And while SARS-CoV-2 may lead to overt cardiac symptoms such as chest pain or shortness of breath resulting in heart attacks and blood clots, there is also the possibility that the virus may cause significant heart damage and inflammation—but without producing any immediate or more noticeable cardiac symptoms.

This concern was addressed in the findings of a new study published in JAMA last month, demonstrating that even if you are unaware of having any symptoms after recovery from Covid-19, there is the possibility that the virus may cause heart damage or inflammation that could put you at risk for complications including heart arrhythmias, heart failure and sudden cardiac death.

27-10-2020 08:03PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

We know that adults who were asymptomatic have had longer term issues.

Evidence?

MerlinSouthDub · 27-10-2020 08:03PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry is it just me or is it shocking that the fact that 60-70% of school going aged kids that got infected in Israel were asymptomatic?

The line here was schools were safe to open. We know that adults who were asymptomatic have had longer term issues.

Clearly this is the driver of the current wave and the cause of the resultant lockdown, job losses and restrictions.

It’s not that kids aren’t getting it. It’s that we can’t see them getting it. Hence the massive explosion in community transmission.

This is a scandal.

The virus didn't exist in Ireland 8 months ago. We don't know if anyone will have long term issues. I feel the need to repeat myself. Schools are open. Numbers are falling. It would indeed be a scandal if we closed the schools and opened the pubs.

hynesie08 · 27-10-2020 08:03PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321126401131585542
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1321153198703452161

And meanwhile we will hopefully be back to relative normality within a month if trends continue the way they are going

Normality? We'll be able to buy socks, does anybody believe they'll open cinemas, gyms, resteraunts, pubs or museums?

MelbourneMan · 27-10-2020 08:03PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry is it just me or is it shocking that the fact that 60-70% of school going aged kids that got infected in Israel were asymptomatic?

The line here was schools were safe to open. We know that adults who were asymptomatic have had longer term issues.

Clearly this is the driver of the current wave and the cause of the resultant lockdown, job losses and restrictions.

It’s not that kids aren’t getting it. It’s that we can’t see them getting it. Hence the massive explosion in community transmission.

This is a scandal.

There is in fact, no scandal. Possibly a little jumping to conclusions, but the matter can be cleared up :

Community transfer occurs wherever there is interraction of people. Whether that is in a school, shop, office, factory, public house, or whatever is rather incidental to determining the action to take. In each case, the importance and societal and economic impact put on each of these elements is the predominant influence on the decision making process guiding corrective action.

It is curious that the general population seems fixated on the locus of transmission. It is perhaps motivated and indicative of conscious or unconsious bias in the discussion by interested parties in preserving continuity in their own sector rather than a true analysis. But it is largely an irrelevant discussion, and misses the point.

In short, the where is, not quite, but almost by the way, in the determining of the restrictions to apply.

46 Long · 27-10-2020 08:05PM

virginmediapls wrote: »

And we also didnt have to use mass graves/have people dying on the streets thanks to NPHET.

Yes, of course we would have had mass graves and people dying on the street with a deadly illness that only 99.5% of us will survive. An illness so terrifying that most cases are asymptomatic or have only mild, non-specific symptoms.

Stheno · 27-10-2020 08:05PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I saw someone here suggest that a nice outcome will be level 5 to level 3 plus on 1 December, and then to signal level 3 (allowing some household visits and travel) by 15/20 December.

Not in any supported by what came out of the briefing today

On contact tracing and testing specifically in schools they claimed they have dedicated public health teams for schools yet we have doctors from public health say they are overwhelmed and school principals saying it takes too long to get testing and tracing done

It can't be both so which is it?

Spanish Eyes · 27-10-2020 08:05PM

Stheno wrote: »

I dont buy we needed level five last week but I may well be wronf

And the narrative in the briefing tonight when asked about people travelling home for Christmas was "no unnecessary travel"

There is not going to be anything like a normal December imho

We are on a good trajectory by the looks of things, and got in there quickly. Holohan or not. L5 now was a good move, we will just have to get used to it for the good of all of us, well those who observe anyway. Halloween messing is building up though, I sense it in my bones. How and ever...

Agree Christmas will be a bit different, but most people understand the situation now, well those with half a brain and are not rebels without a cause

I do think that many will ignore restrictions if imposed over Christmas anyway. But I reckon that is what Gov an Nphet are very aware of now. So if numbers recede a lot, let it rip for the Season, and off we go again when numbers rise. As they will, it is inevitable I think.

bb1234567 · 27-10-2020 08:05PM

normanoffside wrote: »

So they're lungs were damaged without them even noticing. Doesn't sound feasible tbh.

It's probably nothing to worry about but you can have lung damage and be asymptomatic, it doesn't look like major or long term lung damage but it is lung damage and appears prevalent in asymptomatic covid patients. I have no clue personally but I'd imagine this may also be the case for other asymptomaic respiratory illness.This study was published in September

Recent studies, some in the form of case reports, refer to computed tomography (CT) imaging abnormalities, even in recovered asymptomatic COVID-19 patients. The analysis of the positive cases from the cruise ship Diamond Princess revealed that 73% were asymptomatic, of whom 54% had lung opacities on CT, usually showing a prevalence of ground glass opacity (GGO) over consolidation.4 A comparable prevalence of abnormal chest x-ray in asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic patients was reported by a radiologic center in the first Italian COVID-19 epicenter.5

All these findings suggest that in the future there could be a non-negligible proportion of patients, possibly of young age, in need of thoracic RT and with undiagnosed pre-existing cardiopulmonary damage from asymptomatic COVID-19.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7462877/

PowerToWait · 27-10-2020 08:06PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Normality? We'll be able to buy socks, does anybody believe they'll open cinemas, gyms, resteraunts, pubs or museums?

Do you think they should keep these places closed if it means we will avoid a catastrophic overwhelming of our health care system?

27-10-2020 08:07PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Hi Norman, Have a read. I posted the article during the summer. It's like anything, you can only see a problem if you look at it. (MRI in this case)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertglatter/2020/08/17/covid-19-can-cause-heart-damageeven-if-you-are-asymptomatic/

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?referringSource=articleShare

Doesn’t talk about asymptomatic individuals, and isn’t evidence of long term damage.

bb1234567 · 27-10-2020 08:08PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

Normality? We'll be able to buy socks, does anybody believe they'll open cinemas, gyms, resteraunts, pubs or museums?

I do think there will be shopping and gyms and outdoor dining for Christmas I remain hopeful and even if we dont have those luxuries it's a lot better than being locked up at home in December like probably all of Italy and France and Spain and Benelux will be

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 08:09PM

normanoffside wrote: »

So they're lungs were damaged without them even noticing. Doesn't sound feasible tbh.

Long covid? [url] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7152865/ [/url] . There's a couple of other studies that indicate it's worse in higher viral loads in the population but it's long term health implications are unknown other than you're unlikely to drop dead 9 months after having it

Turtwig · 27-10-2020 08:09PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Based on data to 10 October (level 3 was 5 days old it doesn't hit the data) the R number is 1.4.

If that continues with no change cases will be 1800 (r0=1.4) and 2500 a day (r0=1.6) by 31 October.

Level 3 was not included in that at all. Now the question of if he should have modeled in level 3 effects might make sense. However he didn't. He made it clear he didn't. So why should level 3 effects such as they are, and effects from level 3+ or from anticipatory behavior or from level 4 in the border be included when he said they weren't.

Yeah I really feel the strawman of the 2,000 cases a day by November is incredibly disingenuous. It's just laziness at best. At worst, it's an extremely dangerous subjection to one's own prejudical narratives and confirmation biases.

How can somebody be 8 months into this pandemic and still not understand that these models are not weather forecasts? They're not predicting what will happen. They're predicting situations where if the current factors don't change what the likely outcome may be.
From a risk assessment perspective this is the best we have to go with before deciding what action to take if necessary.

The sensitivity of the r estimate value cannot be overstated either. The difference of a few tenths is a few weeks vs months. I don't envy the cabinet or NPHET for having to make any decision given the margins at stake. They're making do with the best they have. It just be fcking nice if people could learn the bare basics before spouting such ignorance.

8 months!

pjohnson · 27-10-2020 08:12PM

Turtwig wrote: »

Yeah I really feel the strawman of the 2,000 cases a day by November is incredibly disingenuous. It's just laziness at best. At worst, it's an extremely dangerous subjection to one's own prejudical narratives and confirmation biases.

How can somebody be 8 months into this pandemic and still not understand that these models are not weather forecasts? They're not predicting what will happen. They're predicting situations where if the current factors don't change what the likely outcome may be.
From a risk assessment perspective this is the best we have to go with before deciding what action to take if necessary.

The sensitivity of the r estimate value cannot be overstated either. The difference of a few tenths is a few weeks vs months. I don't envy the cabinet or NPHET for having to make any decision given the margins at stake. They're making do with the best they have. It just be fcking nice if people could learn the bare basics before spouting such ignorance.

8 months!

Some people still think the flu is more dangerous than covid.

Very little chance they will learn what a model is and what it means.

xhomelezz · 27-10-2020 08:13PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

There is in fact, no scandal. Possibly a little jumping to conclusions, but the matter can be cleared up :

Community transfer occurs wherever there is interraction of people. Whether that is in a school, shop, office, factory, public house, or whatever is rather incidental to determining the action to take. In each case, the importance and societal and economic impact put on each of these elements is the predominant influence on the decision making process guiding corrective action.

It is curious that the general population seems fixated on the locus of transmission. It is perhaps motivated and indicative of conscious or unconsious bias in the discussion by interested parties in preserving continuity in their own sector rather than a true analysis. But it is largely an irrelevant discussion, and misses the point.

In short, the where is, not quite, but almost by the way, in the determining of the restrictions to apply.

Pretty sure I'm after reading this somewhere already, are you just keep copy and paste over and over?

jackboy · 27-10-2020 08:13PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

I do think there will be shopping and gyms and outdoor dining for Christmas I remain hopeful and even if we dont have those luxuries it's a lot better than being locked up at home in December like probably all of Italy and France and Spain and Benelux will be

Outdoor dining at Christmas is not a luxury, it sounds like some sort of horrible torture.

Stheno · 27-10-2020 08:15PM

jackboy wrote: »

Outdoor dining at Christmas is not a luxury, it sounds like some sort of horrible torture.

Some countries do it really well like Krakoq in Poland

Would cost.a bit for places to set it up here though

seamus · 27-10-2020 08:15PM

It's funny to see all the same people who were so quick to dismiss any suggestion that things were remotely looking positive, now desperate to find reasons why it's not. Claiming that this is sudden, unexpected, a blip, down to level 5, down to no contact reacing or down to mid term break.

Except that this trend started at least 10 days ago, and we've been watching it.

The brief plateau when Dublin was in level 3, lasted all of five days. We're now twice as long into this one and the downward trend firmly entrenched.

Incredible the lengths people will go to, to fortify their own misery.

27-10-2020 08:15PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

It's probably nothing to worry about but you can have lung damage and be asymptomatic, it doesn't look like major or long term lung damage but it is lung damage and appears prevalent in asymptomatic covid patients. I have no clue personally but I'd imagine this may also be the case for other asymptomaic respiratory illness.This study was published in September

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7462877/

Don’t think that article is the smoking gun you think it is

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 08:16PM

Turtwig wrote: »

Yeah I really feel the strawman of the 2,000 cases a day by November is incredibly disingenuous. It's just laziness at best. At worst, it's an extremely dangerous subjection to one's own prejudical narratives and confirmation biases.

How can somebody be 8 months into this pandemic and still not understand that these models are not weather forecasts? They're not predicting what will happen. They're predicting situations where if the current factors don't change what the likely outcome may be.
From a risk assessment perspective this is the best we have to go with before deciding what action to take if necessary.

The sensitivity of the r estimate value cannot be overstated either. The difference of a few tenths is a few weeks vs months. I don't envy the cabinet or NPHET for having to make any decision given the margins at stake. They're making do with the best they have. It just be fcking nice if people could learn the bare basics before spouting such ignorance.

8 months!

Well, that's us all learnt so! Kudos though, on the cultured rant! They've locked themselves into the models as well with the 100 cases a day call, even though it was dragged out of them. TBH I'd trust the Cabinet to make a decision over NPHET on the far broader issues they are looking at.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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