Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

23-10-2020 03:42PM

billybonkers wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319619249757892609

No harm, it’s not like people on here get their knickers in a twist before making themselves aware of facts

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 03:43PM

seamus wrote: »

Swab numbers in early today.

17,746 tests, 1038 positive, 5.85% positivity.

7-day positivity rate down to 6.6%.

I doubt nphet will be referencing this improvement

wirelessdude01 · 23-10-2020 03:44PM

weldoninhio wrote: »

There’s a lot more to come on it fro what I’ve heard.

Go on, spill.

odyssey06 · 23-10-2020 03:45PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

That's at least 30% of the population.

The largest demographic for ICU admissions in Ireland in first wave was 55-64.

In the US 20% of covid deaths were under 65.
4% of covid deaths were under 65 without co-morbidities.

So, "just fine" ... if you have ICU there for you.

Paddygreen · 23-10-2020 03:48PM

RobertKK wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/if-lockdown-has-morphed-from-tactic-to-strategy-the-state-has-failed-1.4388434

Good article.

This lockdown is a result of the failure of the state from the start of the pandemic.
Personally I am fed up of people who think we have done a good job when we are now told we will be in a series of rolling lockdowns.

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.

Kickstart1.3 · 23-10-2020 03:49PM

innuendo141 wrote: »

It's beyond me how many times it needs to be explained that while you may be perfectly fine if you are under 65, you are also perfectly fine to pass it on to someone/many over 65.

Sounds like it'll be illegal to be a young person soon

weldoninhio · 23-10-2020 03:52PM

lawred2 wrote: »

that's a bit of a facebook post

what have you heard?

Same sanitiser is being used in all primary care centres and some hospitals. Email went around today not to use it.

is_that_so · 23-10-2020 03:53PM

Facebook moderators are essential workers!

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/oct/23/facebook-moderators-forced-to-work-in-dublin-office-despite-high-tier-lockdown

KrustyUCC · 23-10-2020 03:53PM

Jeez that's a lot of places that will need to replace sanitiser so

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 03:53PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Great! Daily + rate reached a peak of 7.9% on 17th October, and now we've been below 6% for 2 days in a row. Looking like exponential decay to me

Tuesday. 1269

Wednesday. 1167

Thursday. 1066

Friday. 1038

Sardonicat · 23-10-2020 03:53PM

mloc123 wrote: »

at almost 18,000 tests a day... it seems the weekend contact tracing "drop off" is not evident... Unless they went out and rounded up a few thousands randomers to test to bump up the numbers

Well, that is a good sign so. Hopefully we'll see even more of a drop in a fortnight's time as Level 5 starts to show.

AUDI20 · 23-10-2020 03:55PM

Paddygreen wrote: »

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.

How far into your book are you now Paddy?

Away With The Fairies · 23-10-2020 03:55PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

No passing the ball? Thought there's less risk picking up covid through contact? But then if you're following the HSE guidelines, they go on about contact.

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 03:56PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

Well, that is a good sign so. Hopefully we'll see even more of a drop in a fortnight's time as Level 5 starts to show.

The big question for me is that if the trend carries through and cases keep going down, why did that happen?

They tell us level 3 didnt work. But level 5 hasn’t caused this drop.

Sweet.Science · 23-10-2020 04:00PM

Will Yam wrote: »

The big question for me is that if the trend carries through and cases keep going down, why did that happen?

They tell us level 3 didnt work. But level 5 hasn’t caused this drop.

They didnt give level 3 a chance. Tony wanted level 5 and he gets what he wants

23-10-2020 04:01PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Tuesday. 1269

Wednesday. 1167

Thursday. 1066

Friday. 1038

That’s a daily average of 6%. Keep that up and you would be on track for a weekly 40% drop. Done and dusted in time for Black Friday

ACitizenErased · 23-10-2020 04:01PM

Spanish PM said today that the actual number of cases in Spain is upwards of 3 million. 3 times their case total.

Boggles · 23-10-2020 04:02PM

Will Yam wrote: »

The big question for me is that if the trend carries through and cases keep going down, why did that happen?

They tell us level 3 didnt work. But level 5 hasn’t caused this drop.

There hasn't been a drop, there has been a slow down in growth. Cases are still growing.

Too many external factors to determine whether we are getting there or not, there has been false dawns before.

We should start to know for sure in the next 7-10 days.

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 04:03PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

They didnt give level 3 a chance. Tony wanted level 5 and he gets what he wants

Dublin is also dropping but too soon to say if its a trend.

But level 3 has been in place for 5 weeks so how can you say they didnt give it enough time?

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 04:04PM

Boggles wrote: »

There hasn't been a drop, there has been a slow down in growth. Cases are still growing.

Too many external factors to determine whether we are getting there or not, there has been false dawns before.

We should start to know for sure in the next 7-10 days.

They aren’t growing - they are falling.

1269/1167/1066/1038 is not growing.

MerlinSouthDub · 23-10-2020 04:06PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Dublin is also dropping but too soon to say if its a trend.

But level 3 has been in place for 5 weeks so how can you say they didnt give it enough time?

only in place for just over 2 weeks outside Dublin.

23-10-2020 04:07PM

Boggles wrote: »

There hasn't been a drop, there has been a slow down in growth. Cases are still growing.

Too many external factors to determine whether we are getting there or not, there has been false dawns before.

We should start to know for sure in the next 7-10 days.

3 successive days of falling numbers is an interesting trend, myself however, I would wait for 5 days of failing 7 day average before calling a peak though

23-10-2020 04:08PM

This is going to be a make of break weekend in the hospitals. Situation is deteriorating rapidly. Staff been out. The problem isn't patients been admitted, it's staff that are postive/self isolating. I imagine there will be significant ward closures next week across most HSE hospitals.

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 04:10PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

only in place for just over 2 weeks outside Dublin.

Yes, but you cant say they didnt give level 3 a chance in Dublin. They gave it 5 weeks.

I would accept its too early to say in the case of dublin but the overall drop nationally since Tuesday is encouraging.

My main question is - is there really a correlation between restrictions and number of cases.

In the UK they have a better record right now than we do. About 800 cases per day (pro rata) vs c 1200 here.

And all their pubs restaurants open.

Something doesn’t add up here.

D.Q · 23-10-2020 04:10PM

Paddygreen wrote: »

But it was the public that failed to listen to the guidelines guys. The reality of the matter is it was rule breaking house party animals and their lack of social distancing and being in it together holding firm that has resulted in us now all wondering if deaths cold grey hand will reach out from the frozen mist for us when the dark cold nights of a grim black winter close in on us all as we all watch the situation get even more stark, hopeless, and sobering on RTE going forward.

Paddy can we stay in touch when this is all over

fabo1thecross · 23-10-2020 04:11PM

Quick question folks. Child was a close contact and got the results of the second test today negative so happy out. The date to restrict movements is the 28th but the nurse said second test negative so no need to restrict movement anymore. What's the story there

Will Yam · 23-10-2020 04:11PM

Deleted User wrote: »

3 successive days of falling numbers is an interesting trend, myself however, I would wait for 5 days of failing 7 day average before calling a peak though

I think you may be right here.

But why do rte ignore any positive news?

Boggles · 23-10-2020 04:12PM

Will Yam wrote: »

They aren’t growing - they are falling.

1269/1167/1066/1038 is not growing.

I can show you 4 days of corresponding data in Dublin to show that it had slumped completely.

That's why people don't make concrete assumptions on 4 days of data.

The reality is we dropped the positivity rate by 0.4% but we did 16,000 more tests.

There is a test for everyone in the audience now if they want one.

Also I'm pretty sure the metric used is confirmed positive cases, not swabs.

23-10-2020 04:14PM

fabo1thecross wrote: »

Quick question folks. Child was a close contact and got the results of the second test today negative so happy out. The date to restrict movements is the 28th but the nurse said second test negative so no need to restrict movement anymore. What's the story there

Nurse is wrong. Is unbelievable how many people don’t get this. Incubation can take up to 14 days, and before then the virus may not be detectable, hence the requirement to restrict movements for 14 days. Purpose of the day 1 and day 7 test is to catch any follow on contacts they may have if they test positive in the interim

Boggles · 23-10-2020 04:15PM

Deleted User wrote: »

3 successive days of falling numbers is an interesting trend, myself however, I would wait for 5 days of failing 7 day average before calling a peak though

It is, even more interesting given the backdrop.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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