Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

MerlinSouthDub · 23-10-2020 02:31PM

Benimar wrote: »

The current estimate of R is 1.3

Yeah, but he only used data up to Tuesday for that. Three more days of stability since then

Sardonicat · 23-10-2020 02:31PM

is_that_so wrote: »

See that's the instant effect of Level 5 for ya!

And a few thousand people having to do their own contact tracing.

MerlinSouthDub · 23-10-2020 02:33PM

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, it looks like changes in levels do work, but on an isolated-county basis maybe not so much. Any change most likely requires the hotspot plus surrounding counties to be restricted.

So the LOK-down worked because it was 3 counties around a hotspot. If we had moved Wicklow, Kildare, Meath & Louth (at least) to level 3 at the same time as Dublin, we'd have probably seen a more sustained impact.

We certainly might have done. Given the amount of people who travel for work into Dublin, Level 3 in Dublin only could never really work (in hindsight!).

hawkwing · 23-10-2020 02:36PM

CSO updated,
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries14/

1531 deaths with an underlying condition,median age 83
29 with no underlying condition,median age 81

There were 1,417 deaths of people with underlying conditions in the over 65 age group. Of the 129 deaths in the 25-64 age group, 112 had underlying conditions.

In terms of underlying conditions, chronic heart disease was present in 44% of deaths.
**********
No deaths at all in Waterford or Leitrim of any age/condition since this began,whenever that was...

mloc123 · 23-10-2020 02:40PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

And a few thousand people having to do their own contact tracing.

at almost 18,000 tests a day... it seems the weekend contact tracing "drop off" is not evident... Unless they went out and rounded up a few thousands randomers to test to bump up the numbers

polesheep · 23-10-2020 02:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I believe they are given that message, in that the hope that they behave as if positive, but its not the case that they are counted as positive cases, else there would be a massive discrepancy between positive swabs and confirmed cases

Actually, the more I think about this the more bizarre it becomes. A person who doesn't bother their backside to attend for their test gets a message to say that they are positive and they are expected to believe it? Who the Hell came up with that brainwave? We really are suffering for all the years of cronyism and jobs for the boys.

mloc123 · 23-10-2020 02:43PM

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, it looks like changes in levels do work, but on an isolated-county basis maybe not so much. Any change most likely requires the hotspot plus surrounding counties to be restricted.

Said the same during the LOKdown, to be effective you need to close the bordering counties also... people will travel from Dublin to Kildare for lunch or dinner... less likely to travel to Westmeath or Offaly.

harr · 23-10-2020 02:44PM

Will we see a back log in numbers because of the closing of the testing lab , Or have they the capacity to test more in other locations?

seamus · 23-10-2020 02:44PM

mloc123 wrote: »

at almost 18,000 tests a day... it seems the weekend contact tracing "drop off" is not evident... Unless they went out and rounded up a few thousands randomers to test to bump up the numbers

Anecdotally, I'm not sure if the tracing issue is as dire as it appears. The majority of people I've personally known gettng tested because they're a contact, have done so because someone other than the contact trace team has been in touch.

Whether that's an email from work or a text from a mate, it seems - again anecdotally - that many people know they're contact well before the tracing team do.

As someone else mentioned earlier in the thread, this might be unintentionally better because more people are getting tested who would otherwise not have been contacted by the tracing team.

But it's not something to rely on, far from it. Blind luck at best.

23-10-2020 02:45PM

hawkwing wrote: »

CSO updated,
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries14/

1531 deaths with an underlying condition,median age 83
29 with no underlying condition,median age 81

There were 1,417 deaths of people with underlying conditions in the over 65 age group. Of the 129 deaths in the 25-64 age group, 112 had underlying conditions.

In terms of underlying conditions, chronic heart disease was present in 44% of deaths.
**********
No deaths at all in Waterford or Leitrim of any age/condition since this began,whenever that was...

Chronic heart disease is probably present in the majority of over 80’s. Doesn’t mean they are about to die. That’s why it’s called chronic, not acute. An uncle of mine lived for years in virtual heart failure before dying at 87, having a a relatively happy last few years

23-10-2020 02:48PM

polesheep wrote: »

Actually, the more I think about this the more bizarre it becomes. A person who doesn't bother their backside to attend for their test gets a message to say that they are positive and they are expected to believe it? Who the Hell came up with that brainwave? We really are suffering for all the years of cronyism and jobs for the boys.

My point was if they do this, that’s likely why, I find it hard to believe though for the reasons you outline

Amirani · 23-10-2020 02:50PM

Flappidyflap wrote: »

Think it should be more clear about the NVRL, I think it's ender who actually test the majority of swabs so it's not like those weekends testing will stop. It sounds like a point is been proven, they've probably been screaming out for staff /help and the good will has ended trying to cover everything.

Yeah, Enfer having been doing the majority of community swabs for a while.

mloc123 · 23-10-2020 02:50PM

seamus wrote: »

Anecdotally, I'm not sure if the tracing issue is as dire as it appears. The majority of people I've personally known gettng tested because they're a contact, have done so because someone other than the contact trace team has been in touch.

Whether that's an email from work or a text from a mate, it seems - again anecdotally - that many people know they're contact well before the tracing team do.

As someone else mentioned earlier in the thread, this might be unintentionally better because more people are getting tested who would otherwise not have been contacted by the tracing team.

But it's not something to rely on, far from it. Blind luck at best.

Yes, I think if anything MORE people will end up being tested as contact tracers would have normally ruled a lot of them out as casual contacts and not referred for testing.

is_that_so · 23-10-2020 02:54PM

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

polesheep · 23-10-2020 02:55PM

Deleted User wrote: »

My point was if they do this, that’s likely why, I find it hard to believe though for the reasons you outline

Fair enough. I mistakenly took it from your post that it is actually happening. I wish journalists would ask these kind of questions and put all the nonsense that's out there in the bin where it belongs.

eagle eye · 23-10-2020 02:56PM

Benimar wrote:

The current estimate of R is 1.3

And the target is 0.5.

Long way to go.

polesheep · 23-10-2020 02:56PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

It reminds me of a couple of lads I played football with. The greedy bastard$ would never pass the ball.

JP Liz V1 · 23-10-2020 02:57PM

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169

kwestfan08 · 23-10-2020 03:06PM

hawkwing wrote: »

CSO updated,
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries14/

1531 deaths with an underlying condition,median age 83
29 with no underlying condition,median age 81

There were 1,417 deaths of people with underlying conditions in the over 65 age group. Of the 129 deaths in the 25-64 age group, 112 had underlying conditions.

In terms of underlying conditions, chronic heart disease was present in 44% of deaths.
**********
No deaths at all in Waterford or Leitrim of any age/condition since this began,whenever that was...

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

ixoy · 23-10-2020 03:10PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

Well you're overwhelmingly likely not to die. It doesn't mean there won't be non-fatal complications, which is the bit I'd be more concerned about for my own health.

innuendo141 · 23-10-2020 03:10PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

It's beyond me how many times it needs to be explained that while you may be perfectly fine if you are under 65, you are also perfectly fine to pass it on to someone/many over 65.

Sconsey · 23-10-2020 03:15PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

So with 1,618 deaths in total and 1,531 having underlying conditions, Covid has only killed 87 "healthy" people.

I get its serious and we should all be taking precautions but at a certain point we have to start coming onto the fact that if you aren't compromised and are under 65 you're overwhelmingly likely to be just fine.

True-ish as long as we keep cases under control. But if the cases get out of hand then the health service gets totally swamped. At that point everyon is at risk...emergency services will be comprimised, urgent treatments will be at risk, etc. That healthy teenager better not get a rumbling appendix because there may not be an operating theatre availble to remove it before ruptures.

growleaves · 23-10-2020 03:22PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, wonder just how this will work in practice but at least there is a plan.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/basketball/2020/1023/1173482-outdoor-basketball-training-permitted-but-no-passing/

Its the people of Ireland who are being dunked on.

Ce he sin · 23-10-2020 03:23PM

Will Yam wrote: »

I think there is an element here of lies, damn lies and statistics.

You can spin stats either way.

For example, RTE reported as a headline last evening that cases per 100,000 had reached 300+ over last 14 days (TRUE).

But cases declined by 8% two days ago, and by a further 8% yesterday. Yesterday’s figures were 16% lower than 2 days ago with drops of over 100 each day. (Dublin was also down yesterday by 7%).

So if I want to disseminate bad news, i say cases have reached 300+.

If i want to disseminate good news i say there are encouraging signs emerging recently, with drops of 8% each day.

And in todays I Times we are told that cutting cases by 100 a day will save 20 lives per month. That implies 20 deaths per 3000 cases. But over the last fortnight we have had 14,420 cases, and 50 deaths. That’s 10 deaths per 3000 cases. So where is the 20 coming from?

You're comparing deaths and cases in the same period. There's a lag between a person becoming infected and dying and a further delay before the death is reported. In other words those 50 deaths related to a time when there were fewer than 14,000 cases.

billybonkers · 23-10-2020 03:23PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319590819645575169

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319619249757892609

RobertKK · 23-10-2020 03:24PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/if-lockdown-has-morphed-from-tactic-to-strategy-the-state-has-failed-1.4388434

Good article.

This lockdown is a result of the failure of the state from the start of the pandemic.
Personally I am fed up of people who think we have done a good job when we are now told we will be in a series of rolling lockdowns.

is_that_so · 23-10-2020 03:36PM

RobertKK wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/if-lockdown-has-morphed-from-tactic-to-strategy-the-state-has-failed-1.4388434

Good article.

This lockdown is a result of the failure of the state from the start of the pandemic.
Personally I am fed up of people who think we have done a good job when we are now told we will be in a series of rolling lockdowns.

Up to the summer most of what we did was good, given the novel nature of the virus. Now, we're in a bit of a no-man's land as nobody wants to invest in a very expensive system that may never get used in the same way. Add to that, the other V-word - a vaccine, which appears to be tantalisingly close. Even if all they do is make all cases mild and non-life-threatening it's the more attraction option but it comes at a high short-term price - likely rolling lockdowns. There just don't seem to be any other stategies or alternative tools out there

weldoninhio · 23-10-2020 03:38PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

The hand sanitiser thing is a scandal. The Irish government is again lurching from one calamity to another.

There’s a lot more to come on it fro what I’ve heard.

lawred2 · 23-10-2020 03:38PM

billybonkers wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1319619249757892609

BUT DA TeStZ!

lawred2 · 23-10-2020 03:39PM

weldoninhio wrote: »

There’s a lot more to come on it fro what I’ve heard.

that's a bit of a facebook post

what have you heard?

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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