COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Irish Stones · 22-10-2020 01:14PM

hmmm wrote: »

Good (short) interview with Dr. Amesh Adalja in the video below about the likely future of Covid when we have vaccines and treatments.

Endemic is the word that I have been reading for a few days now.
The forecasts is of a forever condition, with waves during years and seasons.

seamus · 22-10-2020 01:14PM

starlit wrote: »

I read that about the Doctor in Brazil. Very sad. You would wonder are these vaccine trials safe. It be some time before a vaccine will be deemed safe. Its possible the virus might mutate to a point of extinction or that we have to live with it for ever more but that it mutate into a normal flu. Even with a vaccine it's likely it have to be topped up to keep immunity ticking over.

For the avoidance of confusion, none of the vaccine trials involve actually exposing anyone to covid.

The participants receive either the vaccine or a placebo, and then are sent on their way to live their life. They are not supposed to act any differently to anyone else, they must adhere to exactly the same public health advice as everyone else, take the same precautions.

In effect, all participants are told to assume they haven't been vaccinated.

They then just wait to see how many participants contract covid naturally and then run a comparison between the vaccinated group and the placebo group.

This is why the trial itself is safe - they're not making it any more likely that an individual will contract covid.

Whether annual boosters will be required, remains to be seen. Acquired immunity through infection and through vaccination aren't necessarily the same thing. Some vaccines can produce a much longer immunity than natural exposure.
Financially though it doesn't make much sense for a company to aggressively look for a permanent vaccine. There's money in boosters so long as they can keep up with demand.

Timistry · 22-10-2020 01:14PM

There actually are concerns within the pharma industry about the efficacy of the vaccines in the pipeline, the scale up of the manufacture and the logistics of supply (many variants may have to be frozen). Just off a work call there, one year will be nothing short of amazing, 2 years more realistic.

Most of the reported "breakthroughs" are about treatments for SARS COV-2, which will save lives and help people recover faster. However, they will not stop the spread nor offer us any protection - self isolation and lockdowns still necessary. This is where a globally coordinated vaccination program is required, with potential booster shots after 6/12/24 months. This has not been attempted before in a short timeframe (normally takes >10yrs)

landofthetree · 22-10-2020 01:23PM

seamus wrote: »

For the avoidance of confusion, none of the vaccine trials involve actually exposing anyone to covid.

The participants receive either the vaccine or a placebo, and then are sent on their way to live their life. They are not supposed to act any differently to anyone else, they must adhere to exactly the same public health advice as everyone else, take the same precautions.

In effect, all participants are told to assume they haven't been vaccinated.

They then just wait to see how many participants contract covid naturally and then run a comparison between the vaccinated group and the placebo group.

This is why the trial itself is safe - they're not making it any more likely that an individual will contract covid.

Whether annual boosters will be required, remains to be seen. Acquired immunity through infection and through vaccination aren't necessarily the same thing. Some vaccines can produce a much longer immunity than natural exposure.
Financially though it doesn't make much sense for a company to aggressively look for a permanent vaccine. There's money in boosters so long as they can keep up with demand.

Yep.

But there will be in January.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/imperial-college-london-recruiting-healthy-volunteers-infect-covid-19%3famp

stephenjmcd · 22-10-2020 01:24PM

Timistry wrote: »

There actually are concerns within the pharma industry about the efficacy of the vaccines in the pipeline, the scale up of the manufacture and the logistics of supply (many variants may have to be frozen). Just off a work call there, one year will be nothing short of amazing, 2 years more realistic.

Most of the reported "breakthroughs" are about treatments for SARS COV-2, which will save lives and help people recover faster. However, they will not stop the spread nor offer us any protection - self isolation and lockdowns still necessary. This is where a globally coordinated vaccination program is required, with potential booster shots after 6/12/24 months. This has not been attempted before in a short timeframe (normally takes >10yrs)

Do you work in Pharma? People can give opinion of course but many of the things you list have been previously addressed by manufacturers.

I asked because previously a poster put up a very informative article on logistics & production for example with regards to Pfizer. A very robust plan in place with work on going since March with regards to production and delivery. Supply chains and distribution is planned right up to the country of delivery. After that it would be up to the dept of health/HSE to get their house in order.

I will try and find the very informative piece that laid bare manufacturing and distribution.

The vaccine landscape is alot different than it was this time last month and will be again this time next month

Gael23 · 22-10-2020 02:03PM

hmmm wrote: »

Good (short) interview with Dr. Amesh Adalja in the video below about the likely future of Covid when we have vaccines and treatments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k10XxqxEVnQ

My concern is the fixation around the R0 number. People are going to get this virus for years to come, they just won’t get seriously ill.
So as long as there are people getting it, that won’t get the world open again.

As always open to correction but that’s my layman’s assessment of this clip

This is it · 22-10-2020 02:18PM

With regards to testing procedures, if you have a positive result they request that you self isolate for 10 days, when does that 10 day clock start? From first symptoms I'd have thought but it's a bit unclear. Also will there be a second test to prove negative or back to "normal" after the 10 days? Normal being standard restrictions, etc. Thanks

dominatinMC · 22-10-2020 02:23PM

hmmm wrote: »

Good (short) interview with Dr. Amesh Adalja in the video below about the likely future of Covid when we have vaccines and treatments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k10XxqxEVnQ

He's saying what a lot of others are saying without the dramatic headline. Essentially, that a vaccine will not be a panacea/silver bullet but, instead, will work in conjunction with improved treatments to allow us to live with the virus. And, contrary to what RTE want us to believe, live normally.

Mark1916 · 22-10-2020 04:15PM

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/22/health/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-trial-30000-participants/index.html

Modena have all 30,000 participants enrolled all of whom have received first shot and the majority (26k) of which have received the second.

Will go to FDA for approval in early December If all continues to go to plan

22-10-2020 04:19PM

dominatinMC wrote: »

One would have to seriously question RTEs journalistic integrity at this stage. I'm not going to go down the road of conspiracy theories and agendas, but their fixation on doom and gloom can't be ignored. Yes, their duty is to inform the public and to maintain realism. But to cherry pick that one story from all the others out there stinks of clickbait negativity. Thank god we have this thread.

If it bleeds, it leads

Mark1916 · 22-10-2020 04:21PM

Timistry wrote: »

There actually are concerns within the pharma industry about the efficacy of the vaccines in the pipeline, the scale up of the manufacture and the logistics of supply (many variants may have to be frozen). Just off a work call there, one year will be nothing short of amazing, 2 years more realistic.

Most of the reported "breakthroughs" are about treatments for SARS COV-2, which will save lives and help people recover faster. However, they will not stop the spread nor offer us any protection - self isolation and lockdowns still necessary. This is where a globally coordinated vaccination program is required, with potential booster shots after 6/12/24 months. This has not been attempted before in a short timeframe (normally takes >10yrs)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-sets-up-its-biggest-ever-vaccination-distribution-campaign-11603272614

Might be worth a read....

Beanybabog · 22-10-2020 04:26PM

This is it wrote: »

With regards to testing procedures, if you have a positive result they request that you self isolate for 10 days, when does that 10 day clock start? From first symptoms I'd have thought but it's a bit unclear. Also will there be a second test to prove negative or back to "normal" after the 10 days? Normal being standard restrictions, etc. Thanks

I spoke to the contract tracers today about this, I had already organised my test. I restrict for 14 days as a close contact. If I test positive from today's test I isolate for 10 days more. If negative, I have a second test next week- if that's positive I've to isolate for 10 days from that test. If I am positive today I don't need a second test. If I stay negative for both tests my restriction ends at 14 days after contact.

22-10-2020 04:46PM

Le Bruise wrote: »

The Doctor in Brazil was given the placebo, so his death was tragic, but nothing to do with the vaccine.

This won't mutate into a normal flu, as it's not an influenza virus.

HOC-43, one of the 4 coronaviruses that cause 10-20% of common colds, is now thought to have caused the "Russian Flu" pandemic of the 1890's. The link was established as genetic comparisons between this virus and a bovine coronavirus, identified the the likely timeframe for the two viruses having a common ancestor was ca.1890, and also that the described symptoms matched SARS much more than a typical influenza virus (study from 2006 - pre covid). Over the course of the 1890's the effects of the russian flu lessened and retreated into the background.

There is also a study - not peer reviewed as yet - linking lower effects seen with some patients to previous exposure to OC43
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.12.20211599v1

davemckenna25 · 22-10-2020 05:31PM

This is it wrote: »

With regards to testing procedures, if you have a positive result they request that you self isolate for 10 days, when does that 10 day clock start? From first symptoms I'd have thought but it's a bit unclear. Also will there be a second test to prove negative or back to "normal" after the 10 days? Normal being standard restrictions, etc. Thanks

Its 10 days minimum from the date of the test, with the last 5 days being symptom free.
So if you show symptoms for 8 days then 5 without its 13 days.
If you show no symptoms its 10 days only.

JacksonHeightsOwn · 22-10-2020 05:49PM

dominatinMC wrote: »

He's saying what a lot of others are saying without the dramatic headline. Essentially, that a vaccine will not be a panacea/silver bullet but, instead, will work in conjunction with improved treatments to allow us to live with the virus. And, contrary to what RTE want us to believe, live normally.

Grim if true.

Imagine this was life now, what a load of bollox that would be.....

Gael23 · 22-10-2020 06:09PM

Any treatment has failed so chances of that are slim

Gael23 · 22-10-2020 07:09PM

Some good news from Oxford
You https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-behaves-as-desired-analysis-finds-12111085

dominatinMC · 22-10-2020 07:23PM

I know Luke is an eternal optimist, but good to hear one of the experts so upbeat and positive. Given his favourable outlook on the situation, I'm shocked RTE let him on The Late Late Show a few weeks ago!

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-oneill-course-well-get-back-pre-covid-world-will-take-time-1094674

martingriff · 22-10-2020 08:49PM

dominatinMC wrote: »

I know Luke is an eternal optimist, but good to hear one of the experts so upbeat and positive. Given his favourable outlook on the situation, I'm shocked RTE let him on The Late Late Show a few weeks ago!

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-oneill-course-well-get-back-pre-covid-world-will-take-time-1094674

Don't be talking about him in those terms you will be slaughtered

martingriff · 22-10-2020 08:51PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Any treatment has failed so chances of that are slim

That is the very definition of a virus a treatment helps it does not cure. If it did we would not need a vaccine. You could say the same about the flu or any virus that need a vaccine

Gael23 · 22-10-2020 08:55PM

martingriff wrote: »

That is the very definition of a virus a treatment helps it does not cure. If it did we would not need a vaccine. You could say the same about the flu or any virus that need a vaccine

But no treatment works?

FintanMcluskey · 22-10-2020 09:11PM

dominatinMC wrote: »

I know Luke is an eternal optimist, but good to hear one of the experts so upbeat and positive. Given his favourable outlook on the situation, I'm shocked RTE let him on The Late Late Show a few weeks ago!

https://www.newstalk.com/news/luke-oneill-course-well-get-back-pre-covid-world-will-take-time-1094674

I used to hate him.

But on reflection, and his recent interviews, he is far from the most pessimistic out there.

Something happened Pat Kenny though, he has actually lost his marbles with some of his rants

Marhay70 · 22-10-2020 09:11PM

Gael23 wrote: »

But no treatment works?

Was not the Orange One cured overnight?

The_Brood · 22-10-2020 09:13PM

Since Ireland is subject to NPHET's divine decrees, everyone can forget about being allowed near a vaccine any time soon. We will need to wait for every other European country to test a vaccine 10 times over before we even begin considering it, and every professor to stamp his approval before it is "safe" for us to give it a go. Better to live the next decade in perpetual lockdown then go against Holy Tony's word.

Gael23 · 22-10-2020 09:39PM

Is this persons opinion worth noting? https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/reasons-to-believe-covid-19-pandemic-will-ease-next-spring-says-health-expert-1.4388702?mode=amp

begbysback · 22-10-2020 09:55PM

The_Brood wrote: »

Since Ireland is subject to NPHET's divine decrees, everyone can forget about being allowed near a vaccine any time soon. We will need to wait for every other European country to test a vaccine 10 times over before we even begin considering it, and every professor to stamp his approval before it is "safe" for us to give it a go. Better to live the next decade in perpetual lockdown then go against Holy Tony's word.

I know a man who can get his hands on a few jabs, won’t be cheap as it’s black market but he says the stuff is kosher.

Hmmzis · 22-10-2020 10:10PM

The FDA has approved remdesivir for treatment of Covid-19.

Despite the poor results in the WHO trials, it still has its utility in shortening hospital stays and in immunocompromised patients.

martingriff · 22-10-2020 10:19PM

Gael23 wrote: »

But no treatment works?

But the treatments that are used are used against the symptoms and not the Virus. That is what they treat This is true for all viruses. That is why they create a vaccine. There is no treatment specifically (except the vaccine) for mumps measles, flu.

martingriff · 22-10-2020 10:22PM

The_Brood wrote: »

Since Ireland is subject to NPHET's divine decrees, everyone can forget about being allowed near a vaccine any time soon. We will need to wait for every other European country to test a vaccine 10 times over before we even begin considering it, and every professor to stamp his approval before it is "safe" for us to give it a go. Better to live the next decade in perpetual lockdown then go against Holy Tony's word.

You maybe wosshing me here but some people may actually believe this. F off with the scaremongering and conspiracy theory

Hmmzis · 22-10-2020 10:40PM

Gael23 wrote: »

But no treatment works?

Dexamethasone works, to a point.
Improved nursing protocols help.

The problem with viral diseases is often not the viral infection itlsef (again, to a point) but an off target immune response. In the case of SARS-cov-2 that's no different, might be even more so than with others. Preventing the infection in the first place or getting the body to do proper early viral control is the best approach. After that it's down to damage limitation.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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