Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Eod100 · 21-10-2020 10:43AM

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Was it not supposed to be 15 minutes? Where did that rule go? Or is it different for children?

15 mins is if within 2m of a confirmed case. I think bit in bold might mean it's not as black and white as below but not sure if it only applies to the 2 hour one say.

More info here:

A person is deemed to be a close contact if s/he:

has spent more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact within 2 metres or 6 feet of a confirmed case
lives in the same house or shared accommodation as a confirmed case
shares a closed space with a confirmed case for more than 2 hours

NB: The Public Health Risk Assessment (PHRA) is used in the school setting to determine the close contacts

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/33180-covid-19-school-community-testing-pathway/

OwenM · 21-10-2020 10:46AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Jesus wept.
Covid19 is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu.
I'll repeat part of my post from yesterday.

1 in 12 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. are documented, which they said would translate to an infection fatality rate of about 0.6%. But even this lower estimate is still at least six times higher than that of the flu. (The case fatality rate in people who become sick with flu may be 0.1%, but when you account for people who become infected with flu but never show symptoms, the death rate will be half or even a quarter of that.)
That means that COVID19 is between 10 and 20 times more deadly than the flu.

A recent study, peer-reviewed, accepted and edited in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf?ua=1

states, for Covid-19: "The median infection fatality rate across all 51 locations was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%). "

What is your accepted IFR for influenza?

niallo27 · 21-10-2020 10:49AM

Boggles wrote: »

They haven't, it's a core priority given to them by the cabinet. There is 2 primary ones.

Schools Open
Non Covid health care open

If the cabinet decided pubs and gyms were to be core priorities, NPHET would alter their modelling and advice.

Hang on when Leo said that nphet don't factor in the economy we were told their only remit is public health but now your saying they need to keep schools open, what have schools got to do with public health, if its a risk they should advise to shut them down.

froog · 21-10-2020 10:51AM

OwenM wrote: »

A recent study, peer-reviewed, accepted and edited in the Bulletin of the World Health Organization: https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf?ua=1

states, for Covid-19: "The median infection fatality rate across all 51 locations was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%). "

What is your accepted IFR for influenza?

I posted on this yesterday. Thats one guys study, a known anti lockdown person. It just happens to be posted in the WHO journal. Its a pretty limited meta analysis of seroprevalence studies which are known to be problematic. He also references one of his own studies which has been criticised in the past.

Mike Ryan of the WHO has said they estimate the IFR at 0.6%.

CoronaBlocker · 21-10-2020 10:51AM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It's not best practice but it does make a degree of sense.

Government: your key priority is to keep schools and the non covid health service open

NPHET: How many cases a day does there need to be before the non covid health service comes under risk. Build contact tracing up to that level. Government say they will take our recommendations. Also money is needed elsewhere.

NPHET: Health service is under risk, we need to close down

Government: let's get to level 3

Nphet: level 3 wont work, some hospitals will have to cancel elective procedures and contact tracing will be overwhelmed.

Government:I want to see how level 3 works.

Cases have been rising since July. They should have been talking to each other about that. Is the only communication that they have, the communication in via press? I doubt it.

Also, that particular Level 5 recommendation came completely out of the blue after three days earlier saying that Level 2 was grand. How can they act like that and expect the government to be ready? NPHET are the advisors. It's their job to recommend courses of action throught he pandemic. They should have been advising that numbers were rising and that contact tracing numbers should be being raised accordingly due to mounting cases needing to be traced.

Look, we can get caught up in the detail forever - some stuff we hear about, some stuff we don't. Either way, I would have expected a lot more back-channeling on this. It's a stunning lack of preparation. Given NPHET love making projections on future figures, how hard is it to project a rise in pressure on what is apparently the most important defence: contact tracing.

Hector Savage · 21-10-2020 10:52AM

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Friend of mine who's been working from home since March and was due back before Christmas has been told now that they're foreseeing this type of on/off restriction throughout 2021 and are setting him up with a more permanent home office solution. The mad thing is, he works for Pfizer in Kildare. He says they have pharmaceutical technicians in as they're essential but they've advised all office staff of the above.

Jesus, I hope they're just being cautious.

Micheal Martin has said this will last all of 2021 aswell.

Softshoulder · 21-10-2020 10:53AM

I just can't get past how we have 3 full parties in government who are so unprepared.

How can you have a Levels plan without actually setting out the criteria for entering each level?
How can you implement a level without actually calling out what criteria needs to be met to exit that level?

Use anything, just have a plan! Use the R number, say if the R number remains at an average of 1 over a week you move to level 3.

Or use the number of cases? If the number of cases averages 800 for two weeks we move to level 4. And if they average at 400 for two weeks we go back to level 3.

Or use the numbers in hospital or ICU or anything! Just appear to have a plan ffs!

niallo27 · 21-10-2020 10:53AM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Belgium on the brink and it's not even November yet

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-belgium-was-cited-as-a-model-for-the-uk-to-follow-now-its-hospitals-face-being-overrun-12109631

Yet I'm sure they will be ok, like every other story like this they always seem to cope. I'm not saying its not bad but you see stories like this a few times a week.

Boggles · 21-10-2020 10:53AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Hang on when Leo said that nphet don't factor in the economy we were told their only remit is public health but now your saying they need to keep schools open, what have schools got to do with public health, if its a risk they should advise to shut them down.

I'll stop you there.

Hector Savage · 21-10-2020 10:55AM

Qiaonasen wrote: »

Jesus. I thought the "It's just the flu brigade" were long extinct and had been annihilated by the facts but they appear just as impervious to eradication as I dunno, Covid19.
Which part do you have trouble comprehending?
- Covid19 is orders of magnitude more contagious than Flu. The R number in a normal setting is 4-5 times higher.
- Covid19 left unchecked will overrun your hospital system even in the most advanced societies with the most ICU beds.
- Covid19 is not seasonal and in the USA alone there are now approximately 300,000 excess deaths and that is during the summer.
- We have seen Wuhan, New York, Italy, Moscow, Spain etc

This is a crisis on a scale which most people haven't begin to understand yet. You know it took 300 years to eradicate smallpox and it was the most deadly pandemic in history.
Covid19 is already in the top 15 and it has only been with us for months.

Scaremongering hyperbole horse sh1t

OwenM · 21-10-2020 10:55AM

froog wrote: »

I posted on this yesterday. Thats one guys study, a known anti lockdown person. It just happens to be posted in the WHO journal. Its a pretty limited meta analysis of seroprevalence studies which are known to be problematic. He also references one of his own studies which has been criticised in the past.

Mike Ryan of the WHO has said they estimate the IFR at 0.6%.

Peer reviewed and accepted? Who are we supposed to believe? (excuse the unavoidable pun)

CoronaBlocker · 21-10-2020 10:55AM

Boggles wrote: »

They haven't, it's a core priority given to them by the cabinet. There is 2 primary ones.

Schools Open
Non Covid health care open

If the cabinet decided pubs and gyms were to be core priorities, NPHET would alter their modelling and advice.

It's shame they didn't alter their modelling and advice on contact tracer numbers accordingly too, isn't it?

21-10-2020 10:55AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

There was reports a few weeks back of teachers getting contact tracing notifications on their phones as being close contacts but being told to ignore that - HSE would decide who to contact.

If someone needs an app to tell you that you have or have not been in close contact with other teachers at work, they have more issues than covid. Personal information relayed by the patient is far more important and accurate than any app. The app is useful for situation where someone may not know or have a way of getting in contact with the person they were a close contact of. In a lockdown, it is essentially redundant.

On the case where 30 teachers got the notification - unless they were blatantly disobeying rules, in which case they wouldn't need an app to tell them they were contacts, these were false pings. An app cannot know that two phones were temporarily left in the staff room or teachers are working 2 meters apart but in different rooms

seamus · 21-10-2020 10:56AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

And what % of that 95% have had an autopsy/inquest to determine if covid-19 was the main or contributory cause of death or if it it was non contributory? Genuine question, not having a go!

Meant to come back to this.

A post-mortem is only carried out where the cause of death is not clear. For the most part a postmortam is mandatory if no doctor has examined the deceased in the last 28 days. If the doctor isn't willing to say with any certainty why the patient died, they must inform the coroner, who will usually do a postmortem.

Being Covid-positive doesn't mean that the death is automatically a covid death. The doctor or coroner will register what they believe to be the primary cause of death (e.g. "Hypoxia leading to brain death"), and the chain of causes - e.g. "sudden cardiac arrest as a result of chronic COPD".

What percentage of covid deaths had a post mortem isn't all that important, since any attending doctor will be able to say with a high degree of confidence whether the person appeared to have become suddenly ill before dying, or whether they just died.

There will be some overlap of people who have been on their death bed for months and just happen to test positive after death.
So it's a toss-up whether they just died or the covid killed them. Probably a bit of both. But a post-mortem wouldn't help in that case anyway.

Hector Savage · 21-10-2020 10:56AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Yet I'm sure they will be ok, like every other story like this they always seem to cope. I'm not saying its not bad but you see stories like this a few times a week.

Weren't Texas supposed to absolutely collapse last month ?

froog · 21-10-2020 10:56AM

OwenM wrote: »

Peer reviewed and accepted? Who are we supposed to believe? (excuse the unavoidable pun)

I'd go with Mike Ryan myself. And Fauci.

wadacrack · 21-10-2020 10:57AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Yet I'm sure they will be ok, like every other story like this they always seem to cope. I'm not saying its not bad but you see stories like this a few times a week.

Italy were not ok, they had to put an age limit on who made it into ICU back in March. Things don't just magically work out. South America were not ok

Eod100 · 21-10-2020 10:59AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Hang on when Leo said that nphet don't factor in the economy we were told their only remit is public health but now your saying they need to keep schools open, what have schools got to do with public health, if its a risk they should advise to shut them down.

At the latest NPHET briefing they've said they believe the transmission rate lower than community and also that also if schools closed there may be issue of it effecting children's development especially in disadvantaged areas. Also that WHO have advised closing schools should be one of the very last measures and only used when all other methods have been used to try to suppress virus.

Could question whether there would be a significant effect if it was temporary but seems it's a combination of political, economic public health. And just so happens government strongly in favour of it.

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 11:00AM

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Was it not supposed to be 15 minutes? Where did that rule go? Or is it different for children?

Didn't you get that memo, the covid in school is different so different rules apply.

niallo27 · 21-10-2020 11:01AM

wadacrack wrote: »

Italy were not ok, they had to put an age limit on who made it into ICU back in March. Things don't just magically work out. South America were not ok

Can people stop referencing Italy, there was zero restrictions back in March and they were caught badly. You can compare that world to the one we live in now.

JDD · 21-10-2020 11:02AM

I don't really understand why people are surprised that the government have mandated a second lockdown, or are surprised that it is likely we will have a third strict lockdown in mid Jan - Feb once we go down to Level 2/3 over Christmas?

We know that the R number goes over 1 when restrictions go below Level 4.

We have a fair idea of how many people will be hospitalised out of positive cases.

So if the government and NPHET are looking at the number of positive tests over the past two weeks, lets call them Group A, they have a fair idea that there are going to be a certain number of hospital admissions in the next week.

They also know that Group A have already infected a wider number of people, lets call them Group B, whose have yet to show up as positive tests. The government know that a certain proportion of Group B will be admitted to hospital in 2-3 weeks time.

Using their models, they must know that present hospital admissions + Group A admissions + Group B admissions - hospital discharges = hospital capacity. So we can't let Group B wander around and infect Group C, as that will mean tents outside hospitals by the start of December.

It is only logic to expect that a six week lockdown - shorter than the March lockdown, and less buy in by the public, will not reduce daily infections down to single figures as it did in June. If we are lucky, this lockdown will reduce daily infections down to around 100 a day.

Christmas will be a free for all. There's no point pretending it won't be. There will be some of course who will continue to be sensible and may decide not to be with family on the day or around it, but most will feel like they deserve to celebrate Christmas as normally as possible after the lockdown. That will lead to a spike in infections and I wouldn't be surprised if the R rate went over 2.

While the R rate may naturally go back down in January, as it is always a quiet month, I think we will be in the same situation as we are now at the end of January and another lockdown will be inevitable. I expect at least one further strict lockdown in May next year, before the vaccine starts to be rolled out.

Why haven't the HSE increased hospital capacity between June and September? I don't know. I know that an additional hospital bed costs €1m each, when you factor in staff costs and overheads, but I don't think money is the problem. It is probably getting the trained staff. You can't go poaching indonesian nurses like we would in normal times. It takes four years to train a nurse, they can't be magicked up.

So that is where we are. The sooner we accept it, the less traumatic it will be.

21-10-2020 11:08AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Micheal Martin has said this will last all of 2021 aswell.

What are they doing in the part of Spain your in and what's the plan for 2021?

niallo27 · 21-10-2020 11:09AM

Eod100 wrote: »

At the latest NPHET briefing they've said they believe the transmission rate lower than community and also that also if schools closed there may be issue of it effecting children's development especially in disadvantaged areas. Also that WHO have advised closing schools should be one of the very last measures and only used when all other methods have been used to try to suppress virus.

Could question whether there would be a significant effect if it was temporary but seems it's a combination of political, economic public health. And just so happens government strongly in favour of it.

I just think there is way too much trust put in an organisation that is made of people that have been in charge of one of the worst health systems in Europe.

titan18 · 21-10-2020 11:10AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Yet I'm sure they will be ok, like every other story like this they always seem to cope. I'm not saying its not bad but you see stories like this a few times a week.

Well, they've already cancelled elective procedures in their hospitals.

Duke of Url · 21-10-2020 11:10AM

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

niallo27 wrote: »

Can people stop referencing Italy, there was zero restrictions back in March and they were caught badly. You can compare that world to the one we live in now.

You can see what Hooter said above.

You dont put restrictions on during " Flu season"

So for Hooter to compare COVID19 to Flu is why we are running loackdowns.

Hooter Logic = Lockdowns

Gruffalux · 21-10-2020 11:12AM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Belgium on the brink and it's not even November yet

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-belgium-was-cited-as-a-model-for-the-uk-to-follow-now-its-hospitals-face-being-overrun-12109631

It is going to take more and more stories like this for people to grasp what is going on. The stories from March are as forgotten as eaten bread.

Eod100 · 21-10-2020 11:13AM

niallo27 wrote: »

I just think there is way too much trust put in an organisation that is made of people that have been in charge of one of the worst health systems in Europe.

NPHET don't have any role in funding the HSE, that's the government.

E36Ross · 21-10-2020 11:16AM

Stopped at a checkpoint this morning and asked if I was out working.......

I drive a bus.

Eod100 · 21-10-2020 11:19AM

E36Ross wrote: »

Stopped at a checkpoint this morning and asked if I was out working.......

I drive a bus.

''I am Garda, how about yourself?'' :pac:

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 11:22AM

Gruffalux wrote: »

It is going to take more and more stories like this for people to grasp what is going on. The stories from March are as forgotten as eaten bread.

Just the flu bro.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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