Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

CIARAN_BOYLE · 21-10-2020 09:50AM

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

You mean the second wave that nobody has been talking about for 6 months?

It depends.

If the hse and Nphet planned on government accepting recommendations ths leave wouldn't be as bad as it is.

What's the chicken and the egg. Theres x contact traces because Nphet planned on an earlier level 5. This meant we wouldn't need more than x. Or Nphet recommended level 5 because there was x contact traces and the contact tracing teams needed to be protected from failure.

If this is the case the failure is in not setting case loads to move to higher levels earlier. Even though approximate ones

billybonkers · 21-10-2020 09:51AM

Right so if its 3,285 calls per day (23,000 / 7 days)

That is 7.3 calls for each of the 450 staff per day then.

How long does a contract tracing call take, can anyone who was contacted comment?

21-10-2020 09:51AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does this mean that the airports will be closed?

No, you’ll still be able to travel to the airport or the ports (as long as you’ve a ticket to show)

silverharp · 21-10-2020 09:51AM

4 infants died because of travel restrictions in Australia

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1318834012945829888

Kimbot · 21-10-2020 09:52AM

ixoy wrote: »

Not to mention there's a number of state employees sitting around as they're public facing so currently not working. They can be re-deployed.

What state employees are sitting around not working at the moment?

Brianmwalker · 21-10-2020 09:55AM

Softshoulder wrote: »

This is barely a lockdown. So many businesses are going to be open.

You'd have a shorter list of businesses closing than opening:

- Pubs
- Restaurants
- Barbers
- Clothes shops
- Retailers
- Gyms

Phone shops staying open, car dealers staying open, electrical outlets staying open, opticians staying open, banks staying open, landrettes and drycleaners staying open.

Agreed, there's an exemption for everyone in the audience. . Typical irish approach, half ass it! Should be no lock down imo but it there is I'd prefer a proper house arrest style for 2 to 3 weeks.

xabi · 21-10-2020 09:55AM

Enter name here wrote: »

I run a retail chain and have had this argument all day long with the owners. If you can show me where is says you can leave the 5 kms radius to go shopping for non essential items show me. As i said to the owners today, against my judgment which was to close the shops down across the country they want to keep them open and offer click and collect. I said fine I will inform the managers to keep skeleton staff on and at all branches and offer click and collect. I will also ask customers to provide a photo ID showing that they reside within the 5km limit, if they do not I will ask managers not to serve them.

What shop is this? So I can avoid in the future.

ixoy · 21-10-2020 09:57AM

Kimbot wrote: »

What state employees are sitting around not working at the moment?

Librarians I know of for one - haven't been re-deployed. Those in public museums perhaps too.

joe40 · 21-10-2020 09:58AM

nthclare wrote: »

I know this threads busy, but what's wrong with a single middle aged,young or elderly man or woman living alone, just getting into their car for a spin out to a headland and getting sea air, going fishing or foraging, a swim.

Especially people who are lonely and suffer from depression or have social anxiety.

Some people need their routine and this could save them from the tipping point, they're harming no one.

Yeah on balance I agree with that post. I'm not totally anti restrictions but I think staying within your county would be more sensible.
Im off work this week so yesterday I went for a walk in the Donegal hills. Literally no one around for miles. Tomorrow I'll be restricted to a busy town parks with loads of people around.
At this time of year you won't get the big crowds at beaches so travel within county should be safe.

Non solum non ambulabit · 21-10-2020 09:59AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

People will die regardless of ICU capacity.

13 announced yesterday with ICU capacity still available.

Only 5% of our deaths so far have come from ICU. 95% died without ever entering ICU.

CoronaBlocker · 21-10-2020 10:01AM

Drumpot wrote: »

So anybody can be a contact tracer? Thousands of people on PUP and none of them can even ask to do the job if they want? (I’m sure many would put their name forward and volunteer) While they are stuck at home doing nothing ?

So can anybody come up with a devils advocate defence of why there isn’t more infrastructure in place for the contact tracing?

I applied and got no response.
In fairness to the government and the HSE though, they spent so much time worrying about the inevitable second wave that they completely forgot to plan for the rise in cases that has been developing since all the way back in July.

lolokeogh · 21-10-2020 10:01AM

billybonkers wrote: »

Right so if its 3,285 calls per day (23,000 / 7 days)

That is 7.3 calls for each of the 450 staff per day then.

How long does a contract tracing call take, can anyone who was contacted comment?

mine was 5 mins,took the numbers if i had them from people i was in contact with,they made contact with all but one...the rest in the house would have spent 20 mins each on average..my daughter was one day in to secondry school,i phoned the school and told them she was positive,that was a thursday,they asked to sort of keep it hush hush and they would work on it and see what happens come monday,then nothing,no one that was with my daughter in school was contacted,Was the same with my son,hes in last year of secondry school,i also informed his school,and that was about it,nothing realy..but anyway i would say from my experiance on average here 20 mins a call..

Non solum non ambulabit · 21-10-2020 10:04AM

silverharp wrote: »

4 infants died because of travel restrictions in Australia

https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/1318834012945829888

Unbelievable. Sickening how Covid has destroyed our perspective on life. Prepared to let infants die due to our obsession with Covid case numbers.

AlphaDelta1 · 21-10-2020 10:04AM

Softshoulder wrote: »

This is barely a lockdown. So many businesses are going to be open.

You'd have a shorter list of businesses closing than opening:

- Pubs
- Restaurants
- Barbers
- Clothes shops
- Retailers
- Gyms

Phone shops staying open, car dealers staying open, electrical outlets staying open, opticians staying open, banks staying open, landrettes and drycleaners staying open.

It's a lockdown in name only. Like i said yesterday they'll be back with 2 weeks looking for additional measures.

Duke of Url · 21-10-2020 10:06AM

So how do I explain this to the guards when im stopped to visit my 83 year old mam lives alone

Do I just tell them?

Who can form a support bubble in Ireland?

Under Level 5, people who have certain living situations can form a bubble with one other household of any size.

You can form a support bubble if: live alone with children under the age of 18, you live alone, you share parenting or custody arrangements, you live with an adult you provide care for, or you live by yourself and have a carer or carers who support you.

Support bubbles can only be formed with one other household that is not already part of a support bubble.

It is advised that people should choose another household in their locality, but it can be outside the five kilometre restriction under Level 5.

Wombatman · 21-10-2020 10:07AM

What is the Nphet advice around keeping schools open?

CoronaBlocker · 21-10-2020 10:07AM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Im sorry but there is zero excuse for the arse to fall out of the track and trace system, literally none. We have hundreds of thousands of people getting 350 a week for sitting around watching TV or walking their dog out of which hundreds could have been trained up. The sheer and utter incompetence of it all is frightening.

Anyone with even a fraction of intelligence knew a surge was extremely likely and yet they did nothing.

I used to contract for a very large political party and you would be amazed to know that the European elections (which happen exactly 5 years) still managed to surprise them each time they came around. Muppets. Absolute muppets.

seamus · 21-10-2020 10:08AM

billybonkers wrote: »

Right so if its 3,285 calls per day (23,000 / 7 days)

That is 7.3 calls for each of the 450 staff per day then.

How long does a contract tracing call take, can anyone who was contacted comment?

I'm curious now where you got the 23,000 number. If it's Paul Reid, then the number is probably wrong

You can actually work this out.

If "Last week" was the 12th to the 18th, then there were 8,125 new cases.

Each new case gets two calls - one to notify and the second to collect their close contacts. That's 16,250 calls.

The average number of close contacts is about 4.5. Each gets one phone call. That's 73,125 calls. Which makes for a grand total of 89,375 calls in 7 days.

Now, it'll be lower than that; some positive cases will come from hospitals and will be unconscious or otherwise unable to take calls. But it's a good starting point.

The HSE actually contacted just shy of 5,000 new cases last week. So let's use that as our metric; roughly 5/8ths of new cases need to be contacted. The other 3/8ths do not.

That brings us down to a total of 55,860 calls for last week.

Last week the tracers (according to their own data) made 28,720 calls.

So no matter which way you swing it, there is a shortfall.

If you have 450 tracers, we'll assume 5% are unavailable in any given week, and they realistically have 7 hours per day per tracer (time to set up, toilet breaks, etc etc). Gives 14,960 man-hours. So a contact tracer can make, on average, about two calls an hour. Which makes sense when you consider what it is that they're doing.

So we need at least 1,500 contact tracers. With surge capacity for 30% more.

Which, funnily enough, is exactly the 30 tracers per 100,000 that New York identified as the minimum, back in May.

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 10:08AM

ixoy wrote: »

Librarians I know of for one - haven't been re-deployed. Those in public museums perhaps too.

Librarians, Assemble!

i never watched the show btw, also one of them is a former ER doctor

Hooter23 · 21-10-2020 10:08AM

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

Happydays2020 · 21-10-2020 10:10AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But still, even from those contacts tested, the proportion of positive tests is lower than elsewhere. And if the net is too narrow, that are only getting the most likely to have been exposed

There was reports a few weeks back of teachers getting contact tracing notifications on their phones as being close contacts but being told to ignore that - HSE would decide who to contact.

seamus · 21-10-2020 10:10AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

So how do I explain this to the guards when im stopped to visit my 83 year old mam lives alone

Do I just tell them?

Yes.

The 5km limit includes an exemption:

for vital family reasons, such as providing care to children, elderly or vulnerable people, and in particular for those who live alone, as part of an extended household but excluding social family visits

"My elderly mother needs me to do her shopping and take out her bins".

suicide_circus · 21-10-2020 10:10AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Only 5% of our deaths so far have come from ICU. 95% died without ever entering ICU.

And what % of that 95% have had an autopsy/inquest to determine if covid-19 was the main or contributory cause of death or if it it was non contributory? Genuine question, not having a go!

Funsterdelux · 21-10-2020 10:11AM

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

We should also name and shame those infected with STD's

wirelessdude01 · 21-10-2020 10:12AM

Wombatman wrote: »

What is the Nphet advice around keeping schools open?

Message is that keeping schools open is a core priority.

Wombatman · 21-10-2020 10:13AM

Wombatman wrote: »

What is the Nphet advice around keeping schools open?

OK. Found it.

The National Public Health Emergency Team has reviewed the national experience of school reopening to date, including the epidemiological data and information gathered through case and outbreak management. Having considered this evidence, NPHET has recommended that schools remain open during Level 5 restrictions, even in the current trajectory of the disease.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/09ea9-statement-from-minister-for-education-norma-foley-on-sustaining-the-safe-operation-of-schools-during-level-5-measures/

Hector Savage · 21-10-2020 10:14AM

ixoy wrote: »

Not to mention there's a number of state employees sitting around as they're public facing so currently not working. They can be re-deployed.

You think those civil service wasters are gonna do ANYTHING that isn't explicitly on their job description ???

You're talking about people sitting on their arse at home on full pay not working from home as "we don't have internet" ....

CoronaBlocker · 21-10-2020 10:15AM

So, using figures as supplied here...
23,000 calls last week. Divided amongst 450 contact tracers. That's 51.1 calls each and divided by 40 working hours equals 1.2 calls an hour.
Even allowing for a bit of box-ticking and form-filling, that's a glacially slow pace of work. A target so easy to hit it's practically unmissable.

Any civil/public servant that I have ever had to deal with always seemed to be operating in amble mode. You want to bloody shake them or splash water into their face. And people wonder where inefficiencies and wastage comes from.

AlphaDelta1 · 21-10-2020 10:16AM

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

No it's not a so called virus, it's an actual virus.

Duke of Url · 21-10-2020 10:17AM

Hooter23 wrote: »

Imagine if we started reporting cases of flu on the news evey year...we would have millions of cases..since this so called virus is not much worse than the flu...it just shows you what a joke this whole thing is

Are you saying what happened in Bergamo and Madrid was a Joke and caused by nothing but the flu?

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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