Share Picks 2020

DutchYurt wrote: »

I don't know, does intel selling a piece of their company not indicate that they can't keep up with AMD NVDIA - I think there might be a reduction with earnings..

You might be right.. Ive no inside track .
I see it as Intel selling off a memory/storage division in an are thats become comodisised, with alot of vendors . The buyer get to consolidate on their area of market.
Holding onto Optane which is next gen nand afaik and more chance to be part of 5G IOT , and getting back to their chips basics .
Either way they needed to shake things up to get Wall Sts attention.
On a like for like balance sheet basis INTC should be trading at $400 if it caught the same breaks as AMD and NVDA
Wall St are pricing the other two on some yellow brick road in the future land of Oz estimate. Good news for their investors , and hats off to them for their gains.

lovely action on NCYT this morning, Paris opens at 10.10 , drops it to 9.56 and recovers to 10.68 .. their are shaking the tree to accumulate ... but Covid and testing are on the up, everywhere you look lockdowns

Talk of stimulus getting approved. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Expecting one more pump before a pre-election selloff .

One More Toy wrote: »

Gold as a hedge maybe? I'd be interested in your thoughts

You dont say as a hedge against what, whihc is important.. so short question is going to get a long answer.

TBH my 2 cents on picking any hedging play. Its like being at one of those carnival fun fairs and your trying to pick up the ducks marked with a prize underneath with the fishing pole.
From experience of watching the markets, back in the day, like way back in the day there was always a % of the market that was not logical, but the majority was (albeit rigged and even more corrupt, but at least logical) . That changed over the years , no need to get into the weeds, but the way I see it now the illogical part is in the majority.

So now its all a game. And once you accept the market can behave illogically , then you dont give a sht about what makes sense your just out to make some coin. No shame in that. A generalisation for the sake of discussion,

Gold plenty threads on that . FWIW I played BARRICK GOLD for a short period this year, done alot of research, bought low rode it up into its last earnings, felt it was still undervalued but I took my profit and exited. At the time it was not a rational decision, but in an irrational market it sometimes pays to make irrational decisions. Sometimes if a company is not getting the valuation you think it deserves then you cut loose, but theres a danger there that you cut loose too soon. Anyways 2 weeks after I left Buffett bought a major GOLD stake, and I said maybe I made a mistake, but look a month later and GOLD is down since his buy in. Again irrationality at work.

But I like to play sectors , I like to look at the news or documentarys and think ohh yeah Im invested in that sector, so Im back into gold mining with NAK super high risk , a total punt I will hold till doomsday or they get approval to kill the wild salmon and mine for gold. My investments are based on my areas of interests, the world has so much to offer.

So back to your question , Buffett trimmed his bank holdings at the same time as buying into gold and copper, investing about 500million. So does his position and reasoning apply to you , do you have 500million or the equivalent you need to park up, and are you investing for generations for shareholders grandchildren. I think not. His play is the ultimate hedge, its a 50 year play, in a time of negative interest rates he wants to protect whats under his bed.

But we have to live in the here and now, Covid is rocking the boat, it looks like it will be endemic, global economys are about to go into a second lockdown , in winter, no doubt many cracks will turn to total breaks. What will the world look like when we emerge in March or April. Gold looks to be in a dip at the moment. I think it will trade in a narrow band , with small upside but I dont see it spiking and if thats what your after so I would say gold is not the worst hedge out there against another major crash and a long tail economic recovery if thats what your talking about. Plenty ways to play gold. Jaysus that reminds me Ive a bunch of gold coins in the attic, buried under transformers and barbie dolls must dig em out.

But remember the carnival owner is the one who put the hooks on the ducks in the pool and he knows what prizes are on offer.

FWIW no ones forced to read my ramblings, these long threads are as much for my own 'compus mentis', call it wfh Covid lockdown syndromw, I find it good to air my internal investing dialogue, Id recommend it to everyone. Nothing like seeing what your thinking in print to know if its sound investment.

Have a great trading day people. These lockdowns are the great equalizer, having loads of dosh is useless if society is cracking at the seams. Its not about who dies with the biggest stash, its about who had the most fun and did the most good IMO.