Share Picks 2020

DutchYurt · 19-10-2020 04:21PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Edesa, my main play up 24% before the bell. FDA approval for stage 2 Trials for Covid Therapy. Already had been approved in Canada. Waiting on government funding now. Had hoped for a bigger move, but hopefully no spike with more steady climb.

I'd love to hear your take on what's happened today, what an emotional rollercoaster. My day time job distracted me from the profits unfortunately.

Nemeses2050 · 19-10-2020 04:37PM

I reckon for these short-term small cap stocks, once it's up 20-25% you should take the profit.

19-10-2020 04:51PM

DutchYurt wrote: »

I'd love to hear your take on what's happened today, what an emotional rollercoaster. My day time job distracted me from the profits unfortunately.

Practically the same... So, I'm bag holding, but my BEP is about €6.40 so not so bad.

It was the epitome of Buy the Rumour, Sell the News. It only got to a level similar to when it was first expected the news would come out (but the company fluffed the original FDA application and had to go another 30 days).

There are lots of catalysts so not selling just yet. Canadian funding will spike it, company bought out will seriously spike it. Announcement of trial starts will give it a lift. Results of stage 2 trial will hopefully be another plus.

BTW, I think this stock has serious potential, considering the insider stock holding level, the management buying stocks at market value only a few days ago, plus the actual products are good (not just the Covid therapy). So, while holding long is a pain, it could be worse.

DutchYurt · 19-10-2020 05:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Practically the same... So, I'm bag holding, but my BEP is about €6.40 so not so bad.

It was the epitome of Buy the Rumour, Sell the News. It only got to a level similar to when it was first expected the news would come out (but the company fluffed the original FDA application and had to go another 30 days).

There are lots of catalysts so not selling just yet. Canadian funding will spike it, company bought out will seriously spike it. Announcement of trial starts will give it a lift. Results of stage 2 trial will hopefully be another plus.

BTW, I think this stock has serious potential, considering the insider stock holding level, the management buying stocks at market value only a few days ago, plus the actual products are good (not just the Covid therapy). So, while holding long is a pain, it could be worse.

I'm not stupid, just fiscally irresponsible so I will follow your play!

But in seriousness thanks for your 2 cents!

RIGOLO · 19-10-2020 05:40PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

my US covid picks are green across the futures (fwiw) board

Big mask play in my portfolio is APT whihc I mentioned before , and Ive a small position in LAKE.. neither were getting much love from Wall St despite great quarters , little debt etc. .. but will benefit off of the news.

OPK (aka Bioreference labs) are under $4 and also showing green. This is a mad stock, its manipulated both internally and externally , heavily shorted but has a legit business and legit lab footprint, options interest was already looking positive before the news.

APT - 11%, LAKE - 4% and OPK 8% today ...not too bad and its only Monday.

Still room to run in these , they have been trying to break thru some resistance lately (arent all stocks) Im hoping earnings will give them a leg up.

But the first two are very risky, they have great balance sheets, low debt ratios, good price/sales etc .. Wall ST hates that stuff, they much prefer a company losing money hand over fist .. I jest...

Election looming another great reason to b'n'b some shares before tax deadline if your willing to take that 30 day risk

glta

Kilboor · 19-10-2020 06:38PM

UpWork finally moving

rugbyman · 19-10-2020 06:45PM

Rigolo, you have a way with words ,am still chuckling

Rothmans · 19-10-2020 07:37PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

APT - 11%, LAKE - 4% and OPK 8% today ...not too bad and its only Monday.

Still room to run in these , they have been trying to break thru some resistance lately (arent all stocks) Im hoping earnings will give them a leg up.

But the first two are very risky, they have great balance sheets, low debt ratios, good price/sales etc .. Wall ST hates that stuff, they much prefer a company losing money hand over fist .. I jest...

Election looming another great reason to b'n'b some shares before tax deadline if your willing to take that 30 day risk

glta

Re Bnb-ing shares. I've done some research, and I've come to the conclusion that the 30 day rule only applies to capturing a paper CGT loss, whereas it is perfectly permissible to BnB shares to capture a gain (without the 30 day rule applying) Is this correct?

It is difficult to find a definitive answer.

Bob Harris · 19-10-2020 08:50PM

Rothmans wrote: »

Re Bnb-ing shares. I've done some research, and I've come to the conclusion that the 30 day rule only applies to capturing a paper CGT loss, whereas it is perfectly permissible to BnB shares to capture a gain (without the 30 day rule applying) Is this correct?

It is difficult to find a definitive answer.

I've looked into this before.
Basically you can't sell shares and use the loss to reduce your CGT bill if you buy them back within 30 days.
This is to avoid potentially making a gain from the loss on disposal by reducing your CGT by more than it cost to buy them back. For this to happen they'd need to drop in value in the intervening 30 days.

Sorolla · 19-10-2020 11:09PM

OK guys - quick gains if you invest in the following:

Johnson + Johnson
Novartis
Pfizer
Siemens
BASF
Apple

Each and every one is currently under valued

Rothmans · 19-10-2020 11:25PM

Bob Harris wrote: »

I've looked into this before.
Basically you can't sell shares and use the loss to reduce your CGT bill if you buy them back within 30 days.
This is to avoid potentially making a gain from the loss on disposal by reducing your CGT by more than it cost to buy them back. For this to happen they'd need to drop in value in the intervening 30 days.

Yes, that is my understanding. My question relates to the converse, i.e. can you realise a gain, and immediately repurchase a share in order to utilise your annual CGT exemption in respect of that gain?

Iseesheeps · 19-10-2020 11:26PM

Anyone know a broker were i can buy put options or warrants on irish shares? While I dont see another drop in the ISAQ akin to that of March I anticipate a potential 8-10% drop serious profits to be made shorting this collapsing economy

Bob Harris · 20-10-2020 02:47AM

Rothmans wrote: »

Yes, that is my understanding. My question relates to the converse, i.e. can you realise a gain, and immediately repurchase a share in order to utilise your annual CGT exemption in respect of that gain?

Yes, there is no problem doing that.

RIGOLO · 20-10-2020 07:59AM

Rothmans wrote: »

Yes, that is my understanding. My question relates to the converse, i.e. can you realise a gain, and immediately repurchase a share in order to utilise your annual CGT exemption in respect of that gain?

If your repurchasing shares your going to fall under the FirstInFirstOut FIFO and 4 weeks rule. Perhaps you can give more info on your scenario and we can comment.

Speaking for myself and sure who else would I be speaking for , bed and breakfasting shares, or as they say in America a 'wash sale', I think this year in particular is one to pay attention .
With a looming US election,potential for a delayed result, COVID lockdowns extending and a Nov 31st prelimanry cgt tax deadline , then use of the 30 day rule and CGT loss is to be considered.

IF you are worried that whatever you sell before repurchasing will suddenly spike up in the 30 day grace period you have some limiting options
Some of these have other considerations ...

You could buy a sector competitor... eg sell APA (apache oil) realise the CGT loss and buy into OXY , just in case oil spikes ..
You can bed and ETF .. again sell , realise the CGT loss and buy into that sectors ETF for 30 days. Or buy into a CFD to trade that stock, or an index tracker
In the UK people will sell and buy back the share via a SIPP or ISA

You could bed and spouse (thats my favouriite but not for tax reasons) , you sell realise cgt loss and get the missus to buy them and hold, her entry point is much lower and we all love a lower entry point .

Theres other ways to play it. Personally I dont like over complexing and going after every tax penny. For instance I have rarely claimed medical expenses tax allowance for me or the family, I always felt the health service is under strain and Im happy to live in a 1st world country with health services avail to me and loved ones so Im happy to pay over the odds into that system.
AS a millionaire once said whats the point of being rich if society is falling apart and you cant go outside to enjoy it. Besides Penny pinching becomes boring and we all knows those types, so mean they wouldnt spend Christmas.

Summer fun is over, winter has arrived, brutal market forces are looking to hit eoy targets and bonuses... beware they want the change down the back of your sofa.

riddles · 20-10-2020 08:16AM

It’s a dice roll but any opinions on GEVO biofuels?

RIGOLO · 20-10-2020 09:34AM

riddles wrote: »

It’s a dice roll but any opinions on GEVO biofuels?

thanks for the tip , Im going to park some oil losses in there ... (the oil play was always a headge mid pandemic that 'The Thing' would all fade away)
This very low price also gives an option to hedge against a Biden win (you have no idea how hard it was for me to write that). Its a risk as ethanol producers demand is weak at the moment and they cant even sell on their byproducts like corn feed as US farmers are over supplied. Many ethanol producers turning to hand sanitizer manufacturer.

Still its a low price , fairly low mcap for number of workers ( I know not scientific but I look at number of workers in most companies I invest in), with some cash on hand. I like to play multiple sectors and this one along with AMTX will do me for an ethanol green energy play . Lets call it my carbon guilt credit for investing in all that dirty oil for so long.

PHG · 20-10-2020 09:41AM

Sorolla wrote: »

OK guys - quick gains if you invest in the following:

Johnson + Johnson
Novartis
Pfizer
Siemens
BASF
Apple

Each and every one is currently under valued

Very broad and troll like statement there but I'll bite.

- What are you defining as quick gains, 1/2/20%?
- When do you say people should enter and exit?
- Why are they undervalued?

20-10-2020 10:32AM

PHG wrote: »

...........
- Why are they undervalued?

The markets don't price these lads too wrong IMO ........
Johnson + Johnson
Novartis
Pfizer
Siemens
BASF
Apple

Treppen · 20-10-2020 10:42AM

Augeo wrote: »

The markets don't price these lads too wrong IMO ........
Johnson + Johnson
Novartis
Pfizer
Siemens
BASF
Apple

Days, months, years ?

cmssjone · 20-10-2020 10:46AM

Long time lurker on this thread. Was wondering what people think of SOLO? Have Nio shares thanks to a recommendation here so big thanks to whomever that was.

20-10-2020 10:53AM

Augeo wrote: »

The markets don't price these lads too wrong IMO ........
Johnson + Johnson
Novartis
Pfizer
Siemens
BASF
Apple

Treppen wrote: »

Days, months, years ?

Sorry? What are you asking me ?

Treppen · 20-10-2020 11:01AM

Augeo wrote: »

Sorry? What are you asking me ?

The guy was talking about quick gains, over what time span (and why)?

20-10-2020 11:07AM

Treppen wrote: »

The guy was talking about quick gains, over what time span (and why)?

Right, maybe quote him so if you want him to reply to you

RIGOLO · 20-10-2020 11:08AM

INTEL selling its nand memory buisness for 8Billion . It will retain the Optane division. Good piece of business IMO.
Now all we need is the intel dual gpu XE chips to hit the market and the stock price valuations with AMD and NVDIA may rebalance a bit in favour of INTC.
INTC earnings this week. IVe traded both AMD and NVDA but placed a bet a few weeks back that INTC has some unrealised gains not factored in.

Nemeses2050 · 20-10-2020 11:23AM

IMO AMD and NVDA are both overvalued, well for that matter all the IT stocks are overvalued bar one or two exceptions

On other hand Logitech announcing bumper quarter with people grabbing their cams and mices

....May be that's why they are all over-valued.

PHG · 20-10-2020 11:42AM

Augeo wrote: »

The markets don't price these lads too wrong IMO ........
Johnson + Johnson
Novartis
Pfizer
Siemens
BASF
Apple

It's why I am asking the poster why do they think they are undervalued.

I have no idea about them but the poster is recommending them as a certainty with no analysis or other input besides speculation.

Some people reading it may unquestionably follow and end up losing money.

breadmonster · 20-10-2020 11:46AM

Bob Harris wrote: »

I've looked into this before.
Basically you can't sell shares and use the loss to reduce your CGT bill if you buy them back within 30 days.
This is to avoid potentially making a gain from the loss on disposal by reducing your CGT by more than it cost to buy them back. For this to happen they'd need to drop in value in the intervening 30 days.

Lets say you have a stock and want to keep it for a few years but you see some short term downside risk. Does it make sense to sell it and buy it back or should you hold through all the downside. if you sell, do you have to pay the tax if you buy it back again (cheaper)?

If you dont - Do you have to buy it back in 30 days?

Bob Harris · 20-10-2020 12:17PM

breadmonster wrote: »

Lets say you have a stock and want to keep it for a few years but you see some short term downside risk. Does it make sense to sell it and buy it back or should you hold through all the downside. if you sell, do you have to pay the tax if you buy it back again (cheaper)?

If you dont - Do you have to buy it back in 30 days?

If you sell now ahead of the downside risk you can buy back whenever you like whether you sell for a gain or a loss.
However - if you sell for a loss and use this loss to offset gains elsewhere then you can't buy again for 30 days. If you don't use this loss for a CGT offset then you can buy within 30 days.

If you have a gain you can buy back whenever you like.

As for whether it's better to hold or sell - it depends on many factors like whether you're up or down on the trade, if you have your allowance still available etc but if you have a long term outlook then short-term downside is part and parcel of holding so I'd be inclined to put it in the bottom drawer and hold and if you believe in it long term add more when it does dip.

RIGOLO · 20-10-2020 01:27PM

Nemeses2050 wrote: »

IMO AMD and NVDA are both overvalued, well for that matter all the IT stocks are overvalued bar one or two exceptions

On other hand Logitech announcing bumper quarter with people grabbing their cams and mices ....May be that's why they are all over-valued.

your preaching to the converted. Ive some DEC21 LOGI Calls up 370%:D

DutchYurt · 20-10-2020 01:45PM

RIGOLO wrote: »

INTEL selling its nand memory buisness for 8Billion . It will retain the Optane division. Good piece of business IMO.
Now all we need is the intel dual gpu XE chips to hit the market and the stock price valuations with AMD and NVDIA may rebalance a bit in favour of INTC.
INTC earnings this week. IVe traded both AMD and NVDA but placed a bet a few weeks back that INTC has some unrealised gains not factored in.

I don't know, does intel selling a piece of their company not indicate that they can't keep up with AMD NVDIA - I think there might be a reduction with earnings..

Share Picks 2020

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