Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

Non solum non ambulabit · 19-10-2020 10:19AM

MOH wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/coronavirus-schools-safer-than-wider-community-officials-say-1.4384292

"The number of swabs taken in mass testing in schools rose to 2,500 last week from 1,500 the week before, reflecting the higher level of transmission in the community but the positive rate from mass testing in schools has remained consistent since they reopened."

So when you're trying to justify keeping the schools open, suddenly it's all about the positive rate, thus allowing for the higher raw number due to the increase in testing.
But the rest of the time it's "omg our cases have tripled since last month" despite the fact that the number of tests performed has also gone up by almost the same factor.

I'm sick to death of the deliberate disingenuous reporting of numbers inconsistently to try to push a particular narrative.

Our positivity rate has increased from under 2% to over 7%. This is referenced every day, consistently.

seamus · 19-10-2020 10:19AM

Irish Steve wrote: »

If the schools close, without an enforced lock down, they'll be spending all day out and around the town with no masks etc, at least if they're in the schools, there's some control over what's happening with them.

This is my main concern. Let's have a look and see what happens during mid-term next week, and then imagine if the schools close, that's what we'll be seeing every day.

With everything closed and no house visitors allowed, and nobody's parents going on holidays, teenagers realistically have no other options now except to be hanging around the streets.

And if anyone is thinking, "Their parents have to be keeping them in", then consider how naive that is and whether your parents would have been able to keep you indoors at 15 years old when all your mates are out on the street.

This is most likely why other countries have imposed curfews; when you have to be in your own home by 10pm, then it's easier to just not go out at all.

Funsterdelux · 19-10-2020 10:19AM

Irish Steve wrote: »

Went up to collect take away around 7:30 last night, and for a few moments wondered if I would actually be able to collect it, as I parked up, a group of (mid) teens crossed the road from another part of the town, and went round the corner in the direction of the place I was heading for. Walked round the corner, and I was able to get to where I wanted, but the take away next door had become effectively a no go area, the group of 12, only one of them wearing a mask, were jammed around the door of the next along unit (also a take away), no social separation worth talking about, and blocking the doorway of the shop.

That wasn't the only group that I saw, there were several others in various places.

Yes, it's getting into the schools, but given what I'm seeing, they're not getting it in the schools, where they are separated to a degree, and are wearing masks, it's the interactions during evenings that's causing some of the spread, and then they take it into the school having passed it on outside the school. If the schools close, without an enforced lock down, they'll be spending all day out and around the town with no masks etc, at least if they're in the schools, there's some control over what's happening with them.

Teenagers and takeaways dont get up/open till the afternoons mostly so it would be no different if schools are closed.

lawred2 · 19-10-2020 10:20AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

If only we had, say, 6 months or so to come up with a way to continue educating children without having dozens of them packed into a small room in the middle of a pandemic.

Oh sorry, we did have that but we decided to not bother taking advantage and just proceed as normal.

what would you suggest for 1m people at three levels of education?

iamwhoiam · 19-10-2020 10:21AM

Flu vaccine in short supply again .I just had my appointment cancelled .

khalessi · 19-10-2020 10:21AM

seamus wrote: »

And if anyone is thinking, "Their parents have to be keeping them in", then consider how naive that is and whether your parents would have been able to keep you indoors at 15 years old when all your mates are out on the street.

At 15 I would have had enough respect for my parents and knowledge to know to stay at home because it was necessary. My nieces and nephews all teenagers all stayed at home during alst lockdown because they were brought up properly and all had enough knowledge and cop on to realise how unsafe it was. THey used zoom and other social media to stay in touch with pals the last time.

seamus · 19-10-2020 10:22AM

Boggles wrote: »

No they won't.

A trend is not over a period of 24 or 48 hours.

You're right. A trend is over a week or more. And so far we have a 7-day trend where infection rates have not been growing. 2 more days like that and we can call that confirmed.

If positivity rates over the weekend indicate more growth, then that seven-day was just a blip and not a trend.

See how that works?

MD1990 · 19-10-2020 10:24AM

schools are government buildings.
The agenda to make them seem safe is a disgrace.

Cases will stabilize or go down with increased restrictions.

But they wont get down to single digits.

rather than give themselves a pay rise they need to actually come up with a long term plan.

Non solum non ambulabit · 19-10-2020 10:24AM

paw patrol wrote: »

because keeping the kids getting an education and them moving through the system is of vital importance. to delay the education would have decades of

a knock on effect. It should be the very last thing closed. Also the covid doesn't seem to bother kids much.

I've ranted about the governments behaviour a lot , but this is one thing they got right - to prioritise the schools.

Totally agree. You can't shut down our kids educations for another year and all the knock on affects that will have because 30 people are in ICU.

We need to look at the big picture here. In a mature society children should always be our priority.

19-10-2020 10:24AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Arrived at Carnmore test centre at 2:20, and didn’t get tested until 3. Was well organised but queue of cars was quite large. 6 test bays in a hangar with 6 cars in at a time. About 5 minutes in and out so that’s maybe 70 cars a hour. A lot of testing

No detect result at 8:45 this morning. Followed by rush to get kids out to school. Given all that's going on, less than 48 hours is reasonable at the moment

is_that_so · 19-10-2020 10:25AM

MD1990 wrote: »

schools are government buildings.
The agenda to make them seem safe is a disgrace.

Cases will stabilize or go down with increased restrictions.

But they wont get down to single digits.

rather than give themselves a pay rise they need to actually come up with a long term plan.

The schools will be closed from Friday.mid-term.

Boggles · 19-10-2020 10:26AM

seamus wrote: »

And so far we have a 7-day trend where infection rates have not been growing. 2 more days like that and we can call that confirmed.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1317867927257948160

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1318108472941170689

Reality disagrees Seamus.

Also contract tracing has collapsed the headline figures are no longer accurate.

paw patrol · 19-10-2020 10:26AM

Blondini wrote: »

Phew!

Thank God it's not contagious!

Father Hernandez wrote: »

It may not but doesn't stop them from being asymptomatic, bringing it home and infecting their whole family.

fc*kin beautifully done. both of you (and shame on those who liked your posts)

isolate a line and ignore the context of the entire post.

bravo!

Funsterdelux · 19-10-2020 10:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No detect result at 8:45 this morning. Followed by rush to get kids out to school. Given all that's going on, less than 48 hours is reasonable at the moment

Good to hear.

My OH's neg result last month was just after 9am! Lucky kids

Longing · 19-10-2020 10:28AM

seamus wrote: »

And so far we have a 7-day trend where infection rates have not been growing.

11 Oct = 814
18 Oct = 1283

Defiantly stable.

seamus · 19-10-2020 10:28AM

khalessi wrote: »

At 15 I would have had enough respect for my parents and knowledge to know to stay at home because it was necessary. My nieces and nephews all teenagers all stayed at home during alst lockdown because they were brought up properly and all had enough knowledge and cop on to realise how unsafe it was. THey used zoom and other social media to stay in touch with pals the last time.

Last time.

Last lockdown was very different. Everyone was convinced there was deadly infection on the loose that would randomly strike 1 in 20 people dead.

This time all the kids have been mixing with their mates every day for five months and the world has not collapsed. Kids are not dying, the majority of them are not getting infected, and any that do are recovering quickly.

And you will say that's a very narrow view and misses the wider implications, and I would agree with you. But that is the reality of what parents and teenagers are seeing. How can you convince a teenager that they have to stay home and not see their mates, with etheral concepts like infection rates and ICU numbers?

You can't.

Jizique · 19-10-2020 10:29AM

khalessi wrote: »

At 15 I would have had enough respect for my parents and knowledge to know to stay at home because it was necessary. My nieces and nephews all teenagers all stayed at home during alst lockdown because they were brought up properly and all had enough knowledge and cop on to realise how unsafe it was. THey used zoom and other social media to stay in touch with pals the last time.

Very impressive but the reality is that unless they fall into one of five categories namely old folks home employee, meat plant worker, traveller, Roma, or they live in direct provision, the chances of them picking it up were minimal.

SleetAndSnow · 19-10-2020 10:29AM

With regards to retail, is it not that they could have picked it up in retail, but contact tracing doesn't go far enough back to figure that out so it then gets counted as household cluster? I believe they are just eliminating yet another path for people to meet up and virus to spread

At my local shopping center yesterday only one shop was enforcing the max number in the store rule and the one way in and out. One shop. All the rest of them were like a free for all, pre covid family day out. Touching every piece of clothing, chatting with friends in the shop, no more following the arrows. Needless to say I left fairly quickly

Not every retail shop is perfect. Maybe if people just followed the rules (including businesses who need to stop being made out as being perfect, one or two yes but a lot of them are not following guidelines). Don't implement rules? Don't complain when they get shut down for a few weeks.

titan18 · 19-10-2020 10:30AM

Lead in for a decision we've all known was coming since Friday :rolleyes:

CIARAN_BOYLE · 19-10-2020 10:31AM

seamus wrote: »

You're right. A trend is over a week or more. And so far we have a 7-day trend where infection rates have not been growing. 2 more days like that and we can call that confirmed.

If positivity rates over the weekend indicate more growth, then that seven-day was just a blip and not a trend.

See how that works?

You mean

11 october 825 cases
18 October 1283 cases

Have you a source for the daily positivity rate. On the government dashboard its positivity rate last 7 days and its gone from 5.1% on 11 October to 7.3% on Octobet 18.

seamus · 19-10-2020 10:31AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Infection rates. Why respond with cases?

Because they're addicted to misery porn. They only talk about the numbers that make things look as bleak as possible.

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

You mean

11 october 825 cases
18 October 1283 cases

Have you a source for the daily positivity rate. On the government dashboard its positivity rate last 7 days and its gone from 5.1% on 11 October to 7.3% on Octobet 18.

Correct. However the positivity rate on 11th October was 7.3%. And hasn't deviated a lot since then. The 7-day will always lag behind the absolute, especially when it's changing.
Even if the positivity rate was 5% today, the 7-day average would be 7.1%.

If the weekend data; Sunday & Monday; were to be in the 7.5%-range again, then that would be a solid indication that infection rates have peaked.

bennyl10 · 19-10-2020 10:31AM

seamus wrote: »

You're right. A trend is over a week or more. And so far we have a 7-day trend where infection rates have not been growing. 2 more days like that and we can call that confirmed.

If positivity rates over the weekend indicate more growth, then that seven-day was just a blip and not a trend.

See how that works?

Only that’s just not factual?

Funsterdelux · 19-10-2020 10:35AM

seamus wrote: »

Last time.

Last lockdown was very different. Everyone was convinced there was deadly infection on the loose that would randomly strike 1 in 20 people dead.

This time all the kids have been mixing with their mates every day for five months and the world has not collapsed. Kids are not dying, the majority of them are not getting infected, and any that do are recovering quickly.

And you will say that's a very narrow view and misses the wider implications, and I would agree with you. But that is the reality of what parents and teenagers are seeing. How can you convince a teenager that they have to stay home and not see their mates, with etheral concepts like infection rates and ICU numbers?

You can't.

I know I'm not fond of teenagers, even when I was one but you really dont rate them at all.

:eek:

SusanC10 · 19-10-2020 10:38AM

khalessi wrote: »

At 15 I would have had enough respect for my parents and knowledge to know to stay at home because it was necessary. My nieces and nephews all teenagers all stayed at home during alst lockdown because they were brought up properly and all had enough knowledge and cop on to realise how unsafe it was. THey used zoom and other social media to stay in touch with pals the last time.

Our 14 year old stays at home apart from school and GAA (now finished for the season). He is not allowed out roaming around and he understands why. He keeps in touch with his friends online.

lawred2 · 19-10-2020 10:39AM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

I know I'm not fond of teenagers, even when I was one but you really dont rate them at all.

:eek:

That's what you took from his post?

I saw empathy and understanding.

kilkenny31 · 19-10-2020 10:40AM

Guys,

I haven't posted on this site since the last lockdown. I'm almost in shock that we are back at this point again. It seems completely pre-mature. When we went in the last lockdown we had around double of what we have now in ICU and it was growing at a much faster rate.

This seems absolutely ridiculous to me. If we were to stay going as we are now it would be two months before we had the numbers in ICU we had back in April and I'm not even sure it would get to that.

I supported the initial Lockdown but to close everything again seems like a bad idea. Granted the number of new cases are high but we are testing a lot more now. None of the other figures are anywhere near where they were at the start of the last lockdown. It's clear the virus doesn't have the same capacity to grow as it did before because of the testing and measures that are already in place. So disappointed in our government.

It is clear from the figures that we should more than manage to keep going as we are now.

MD1990 · 19-10-2020 10:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No detect result at 8:45 this morning. Followed by rush to get kids out to school. Given all that's going on, less than 48 hours is reasonable at the moment

So if your positive.
It may well cause an outbreak at a school possibly.

Surely the directive should be to keep very close contacts of someone awaiting a test result at home

I seriously doubt this is the protocol in countries with low infection rates.

Father Hernandez · 19-10-2020 10:40AM

paw patrol wrote: »

fc*kin beautifully done. both of you (and shame on those who liked your posts)

isolate a line and ignore the context of the entire post.

bravo!

Your comment of "Also the covid doesn't seem to bother kids much" deserved it.

You're saying you're agreeing with the gov priorotising the schools. It's a very fine line of balancing the schools being open or not.

Since they have reopened, we have had a second wave. They've blamed pubs, restaurants, house parties, retail but not once have schools been even spoken about as being a possible cause of increasing covid rates yet you have approx 1 million people going to schools on a daily basis (Mon-Fri)

What have the gov done since the pandemic began to make schools safer or to facilitate studying from home?

The government priorisiting schools has led to a second wave, it's no weird coincidence. The vulnerable that we've wanted to protect will now be the ones to suffer the most like they did in the first wave.

I'm not advocating closing the schools indefinitely but if we are going to suppress or live with the virus, the gov can't have their heads in the sand and pretend schools are no issue.

TonyMaloney · 19-10-2020 10:41AM

seamus wrote: »

Because they're addicted to misery porn. They only talk about the numbers that make things look as bleak as possible.

Just so we're all clear, this is what you're getting excited about, Seamus.

MerlinSouthDub · 19-10-2020 10:41AM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

No one is saying kids education should be shut down, or that children shouldn't be prioritisied.

What people are saying is having hundreds of people in a building and dozens in a room is wildly irresponsible in the middle of a pandemic which seems to thrive when crowds gather indoors.

Infection rates in school kids are much lower than in the community. So, why are you positioning something as wildly irresponsible when the data says the opposite?

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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