Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

OscarMIlde · 17-10-2020 05:16PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It’s absolutely f*cking criminal that NPHET haven’t recommended any change to the way we test.

Why? What should they change.

seamus · 17-10-2020 05:16PM

Roots 2020 wrote: »

You're a really top poster Seamus, always non biased either way.

But I don't agree here. No way has there been a massive slow down. We started the week with regular 800+ cases and then 1100, 1,200 and 1,000. Way up on last week's averages.

In case it's not clear what I'm talking about, the positivity rate is beginning to stall.

This is the 7-day average positivity for the last 12 days and the rate of change week-to-week:
-Date-|-7 Day Avg-|-Growth-
06-Oct|3.89%|8.58%
07-Oct|4.04%|3.90%
08-Oct|4.24%|5.09%
09-Oct|4.49%|5.82%
10-Oct|4.75%|5.86%
11-Oct|5.23%|9.97%
12-Oct|5.65%|8.17%
13-Oct|5.88%|4.08%
14-Oct|6.47%|10.02%
15-Oct|6.85%|5.86%
16-Oct|7.17%|4.68%
17-Oct|7.31%|1.95%

What seems like high figures today and yesterday actually represent a proportionally small change in positivity rates.

Way to soon to celebrate, but the signs of a halt in growth are there.

Unfortunately we won't know more till Monday.

Gruffalux · 17-10-2020 05:19PM

Woohoo. Things are getting very slightly slowlier worser.

screamer · 17-10-2020 05:20PM

seamus wrote: »

In case it's not clear what I'm talking about, the positivity rate is beginning to stall.

This is the 7-day average positivity for the last 12 days and the rate of change week-to-week:
-Date-|-7 Day Avg-|-Growth-
06-Oct|3.89%|8.58%
07-Oct|4.04%|3.90%
08-Oct|4.24%|5.09%
09-Oct|4.49%|5.82%
10-Oct|4.75%|5.86%
11-Oct|5.23%|9.97%
12-Oct|5.65%|8.17%
13-Oct|5.88%|4.08%
14-Oct|6.47%|10.02%
15-Oct|6.85%|5.86%
16-Oct|7.17%|4.68%
17-Oct|7.31%|1.95%

What seems like high figures today and yesterday actually represent a proportionally small change in positivity rates.

Way to soon to celebrate, but the signs of a halt in growth are there.

Unfortunately we won't know more till Monday.

But is this average rate of growth and +ve of the population or of tests done that day? If tests then we need to see what number of these were done to compare and see if the actual numbers are dropping. 10% of 10000 compared to 5% of 20000 is the same.....

AlphaDelta1 · 17-10-2020 05:20PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Tony is a clown . It's all about ego now . He'd rather see the world burn than not get level 5 .

Would you ever listen to yourself.

seamus · 17-10-2020 05:23PM

screamer wrote: »

But is this average rate of growth and +ve of the population or of tests done that day? If tests then we need to see what number of these were done to compare and see if the actual numbers are dropping. 10% of 10000 compared to 5% of 20000 is the same.....

Percentage of tests that day. It's the most reliable day-to-day indicator for the reasons you state.

If you test 10,000 people today and 20,000 tomorrow, the positivity rate should be roughly the same on both days since the population selection is broadly the same.
You will just see twice as many positive swabs on the second day.

Necro · 17-10-2020 05:31PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I notice under Level 4 and 5 there is no permission for providing care towards the unwell or vulnerable. Isn't that a bit odd?

Probably where the exemptions come in. They do love their exemptions.

PsychoPete · 17-10-2020 05:34PM

Even though my parents would be on the risky side, my siblings still feel the need to unnecessarily call to their house while one of them is also a nurse. Wouldn't you think people would have copped on by now

bennyl10 · 17-10-2020 05:37PM

seamus wrote: »

In case it's not clear what I'm talking about, the positivity rate is beginning to stall.

This is the 7-day average positivity for the last 12 days and the rate of change week-to-week:
-Date-|-7 Day Avg-|-Growth-
06-Oct|3.89%|8.58%
07-Oct|4.04%|3.90%
08-Oct|4.24%|5.09%
09-Oct|4.49%|5.82%
10-Oct|4.75%|5.86%
11-Oct|5.23%|9.97%
12-Oct|5.65%|8.17%
13-Oct|5.88%|4.08%
14-Oct|6.47%|10.02%
15-Oct|6.85%|5.86%
16-Oct|7.17%|4.68%
17-Oct|7.31%|1.95%

What seems like high figures today and yesterday actually represent a proportionally small change in positivity rates.

Way to soon to celebrate, but the signs of a halt in growth are there.

Unfortunately we won't know more till Monday.

The positivity rate is growing though?
And that’s only a % of tests conducted

So in reality the small growth in that third figure isn’t relevant when 14 and 7 day incidence continue to grow?

WoollyRedHat · 17-10-2020 05:40PM

I think what level 3 has proven is that it does have an effect in that it stops exponential growth once the measures have had time to take effect (3-4 weeks). If Level 3 didn't work as a tool of suppression then Dublin numbers would be much higher by now, with hospitalization numbers to match. The next question is when we can expect cases to drop in the capital?

And if we do see the drop in Dublin as a consistent trend, can we then afford to wait 4 weeks + for cases to drop off nationally using Level 3 and face the prospect of hospitals becoming overwhelmed?

The onus has always been on the HSE and the Government to take measures that this is avoided. It seems we're playing the wait and see .

CIARAN_BOYLE · 17-10-2020 05:42PM

OscarMIlde wrote: »

Why? What should they change.

One could argue that we are being too conservative by staying only to the gold standard high accuracy PCR test which takes a significant amount of lab time for testing.

Other tests are less accurate and give quicker responses but would take a lot less lab resources. We could conceivably test 10 times as many people with less accurate tests if we wanted.

I understand why we haven't budged from the PCR testing. I would however think it possible that for mass testing (mass testing in nursing homes for example) with less accurate tests (and retesting any positives with pcr to confirm) might be a more efficient way to do mass testing but I am sure the experts looked at this.

DrSpongeBobz · 17-10-2020 05:47PM

260 in hospital with covid now, 30 in ICU

is_that_so · 17-10-2020 05:49PM

DrSpongeBobz wrote: »

260 in hospital with covid now, 30 in ICU

They were the numbers earlier. Has there been an update?

17-10-2020 05:49PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Wife’s asthma playing up the last few days. Got cough yesterday lunch time, and rang the doc who gave her steroid and antibiotic straight away, but also scheduled test, which will be at 2:30. Heading off to the test centre in 20minutes.

Usually the doc waits till she is much worse before prescribing the steroids, but it has cleared it up straight away with the early intervention this time, so getting test with no symptoms remaining

Arrived at Carnmore test centre at 2:20, and didn’t get tested until 3. Was well organised but queue of cars was quite large. 6 test bays in a hangar with 6 cars in at a time. About 5 minutes in and out so that’s maybe 70 cars a hour. A lot of testing

prunudo · 17-10-2020 05:50PM

Those icu numbers are very stable.

Widdensushi · 17-10-2020 05:51PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They were the numbers earlier. Has there been an update?

Are you on call that a couple of extra cases will make a difference, some on here need to take a break, life is still going on.

MelbourneMan · 17-10-2020 05:53PM

seamus wrote: »

Percentage of tests that day. It's the most reliable day-to-day indicator for the reasons you state.

If you test 10,000 people today and 20,000 tomorrow, the positivity rate should be roughly the same on both days since the population selection is broadly the same.
You will just see twice as many positive swabs on the second day.

Take care that while this is true to some extent, but we do see a skewing at both ends of the testing capacity spectrum. When cases are low, contact tracing focuses well on clusters, and, the system has scope to permit a high routine testing rate in risk situations. At the other end, as you approach capacity (which occurs below the theoretical ceiling due to geographical and logistical reasons), delays due to the lengthening queue, and a more stringent prioritising of samples, distorts the other way.

Funsterdelux · 17-10-2020 05:54PM

Date- -7 Day Avg- -Growth- growthgrowth
06-Oct 3.89% 8.58%
07-Oct 4.04% 3.90% 45%
08-Oct 4.24% 5.09% 131%
09-Oct 4.49% 5.82% 114%
10-Oct 4.75% 5.86% 101%
11-Oct 5.23% 9.97% 170%
12-Oct 5.65% 8.17% 82%
13-Oct 5.88% 4.08% 50%
14-Oct 6.47% 10.02% 246%
15-Oct 6.85% 5.86% 58%
16-Oct 7.17% 4.68% 80%
17-Oct 7.31% 1.95% 42%

But the growth growth rates are very erratic

is_that_so · 17-10-2020 05:55PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Are you on call that a couple of extra cases will make a difference, some on here need to take a break, life is still going on.

Nope, just pointing out that they are numbers from much earlier today and asking a question but off you go on that very odd tangent!

ACitizenErased · 17-10-2020 05:56PM

OscarMIlde wrote: »

Why? What should they change.

Rapid testing would allow our sporting organisations to work with no setbacks. It would allow teachers, healthcare workers, Gardai etc to be tested at very short notice with fast results. If presumed positive, test with PCR.
Every other country is doing it.

SleetAndSnow · 17-10-2020 05:57PM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1317509941847085057?s=19

ACitizenErased · 17-10-2020 05:57PM

1276 cases

8 deaths
1 in June, 2 in September, 5 in October.

ACitizenErased · 17-10-2020 05:58PM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1317510237038018560?s=20

lulublue22 · 17-10-2020 05:58PM

1276 cases 8 deaths - 5 in oct 2 in Sep and 1 in June according to gavin o reilly.

stephenjmcd · 17-10-2020 05:58PM

278 in Dublin, 149 in Cork, 108 in Meath, 107 in Galway, 80 in Wexford
8 deaths (5 in October, 2 in September, 1 in June)

froog · 17-10-2020 05:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Rapid testing would allow our sporting organisations to work with no setbacks. It would allow teachers, healthcare workers, Gardai etc to be tested at very short notice with fast results. If presumed positive, test with PCR.
Every other country is doing it.

didn't work very well at the white house.

GooglePlus · 17-10-2020 05:58PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Rapid testing would allow our sporting organisations to work with no setbacks. It would allow teachers, healthcare workers, Gardai etc to be tested at very short notice with fast results. If presumed positive, test with PCR.
Every other country is doing it.

Well don't just stand there, tell them!

ACitizenErased · 17-10-2020 05:59PM

froog wrote: »

didn't work very well at the white house.

Tests don't really work if you don't do them :rolleyes:

Gael23 · 17-10-2020 05:59PM

Wexford rapidly becoming a problem

SleetAndSnow · 17-10-2020 06:00PM

7 day average passed 1000 for the first time , with it now 1003.7, was 580 last week

14 day average is now 232, last week was 151

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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