Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings

dubdaymo · 17-10-2020 01:43PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

Dr Tony now going to meet with Ministers about level 5

Let's hope he is being given the option to resign before being sacked.

Multipass · 17-10-2020 01:44PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

Dr Tony now going to meet with Ministers about level 5

The sense of dread is palpable.
We need an honest discussion about where we are going with this and why. Including putting everything on hold waiting for the vaccines on the horizon - given that the bar set for them is a reduction in symptoms for 50% of people, do people realise that there are still going to be people dying from covid, possibly close to the same numbers without the vaccine depending on the effectiveness in the vulnerable (which is NOT a current requirement for the vaccine).

Deub · 17-10-2020 01:44PM

walus wrote: »

Yet another post that proves my point. I’m not interested what the governments say, or the companies or any other expert for that matter. I’m interested in so called ‘crowd wisdom’ estimation of this. I doubt that vaccine supporters don’t have any expectation as to the date when this vaccine becomes available to everyone. And so I would expect they would not have problems sharing that info. Why wouldn’t they, right?
A very simple question it seems, yet one that creates so much fuss.

Weird point. Because some people are for vaccines they should know when it will be available?
It doesn’t make any sense.

MelbourneMan · 17-10-2020 01:47PM

dubdaymo wrote: »

Let's hope he is being given the option to resign before being sacked.

NPHET is doing a terrific job. Shooting the messenger will not solve the problem of the virus. The process works. Because the country is now waking up to the reality that it is facing a very unpleasant vista of the next 6-8 months at least, is not a reason to jettison its best informed people on the matter. It is reminiscent of a Brexit comment about having had enough of 'experts' because their analysis didnt reach the conclusions the Brexit faithful wish to hear.

walus · 17-10-2020 01:48PM

Deub wrote: »

Weird point. Because some people are for vaccines they should know when it will be available?
It doesn’t make any sense.

You don’t get it, do you? I expect no one to know, but I expect everyone to have expectation as to when it will be available. If this is not clear enough then I don’t know what is.

PTH2009 · 17-10-2020 01:54PM

dubdaymo wrote: »

Let's hope he is being given the option to resign before being sacked.

He won't resign don't worry

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 01:54PM

Captain_Crash wrote: »

If you take the total number of have died with it, and use the WHO’s best guess of the number of people globally who have likely had it, then it has the same mortality rate as the flu!

The WHO`s best guess on worldwide annual mortality for flu is between 250,000 and 500,000. In 8 months Covid-19 has killed 1.1 Million.
That 1.1Million from 39.3Million confirmed cases is a mortality rate of 3%.
Flu is generally accepted as having a mortality rate of below 1%.
If more got vaccinated then I don`t think it`s a stretch saying that 1% would be even lower.

Micky 32 · 17-10-2020 01:57PM

walus wrote: »

You don’t get it, do you? I expect no one to know, but I expect everyone to have expectation as to when it will be available. If this is not clear enough then I don’t know what is.

I told you the realistic expectation time frame. Next Summer/Autumn if the vaccine is successful. It could be sooner but i’ll stick with the former for joe soap.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-10-2020 01:57PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

Dr Tony now going to meet with Ministers about level 5

If they'd taken the decision initially on advice we would be in a better place now in my opinion.

All we have done is wasted two weeks.

We'd be halfway through the restrictions now hopefully seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

Multipass · 17-10-2020 01:58PM

charlie14 wrote: »

The WHO`s best guess on worldwide annual mortality for flu is between 250,000 and 500,000. In 8 months Covid-19 has killed 1.1 Million.
That 1.1Million from 39.3Million confirmed cases is a mortality rate of 3%.
Flu is generally accepted as having a mortality rate of below 1%.
If more got vaccinated then I don`t think it`s a stretch saying that 1% would be even lower.

Confirmed cases numbers are nonsense though given the extremely high level of asymptomatic infections.

PTH2009 · 17-10-2020 02:00PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

If they'd taken the decision initially on advice we would be in a better place now in my opinion.

All we have done is wasted two weeks.

We'd be halfway through the restrictions now hopefully seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

Economic and mental health have to be considered too

normanoffside · 17-10-2020 02:00PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

Dr Tony now going to meet with Ministers about level 5

Hopefully they order him to resign.

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 02:01PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I wonder why the Swedish government are looking for 6 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine so?

That is just what they have been promised by AstraZeneca. They also have an option from the same company to buy a further 2 million and are looking for a further 10 million by means of the E.U. central order process from other companies.
They have their programme in place to begin vaccinations early next year.

manniot2 · 17-10-2020 02:01PM

With all the data out there, how anybody can still peddle a 3% death rate on here is incredible.

Deub · 17-10-2020 02:02PM

walus wrote: »

You don’t get it, do you? I expect no one to know, but I expect everyone to have expectation as to when it will be available. If this is not clear enough then I don’t know what is.

“I expect everyone”: there, is your problem. Why everyone?

Micky 32 · 17-10-2020 02:05PM

PTH2009 wrote: »

Economic and mental health have to be considered too

Unfortunately there’s a cohort who don’t take into account the human element in this. Robotic, emotionless , cold people who don’t really care.

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 02:09PM

Multipass wrote: »

Confirmed cases numbers are nonsense though given the extremely high level of asymptomatic infections.

That is not going to change the figure of 1.1 Million dead.

So if you subtract these asymptomatic cases from the confirmed cases what then would your mortality percentage of dead to confirmed cases ?

manniot2 · 17-10-2020 02:09PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Unfortunately there’s a cohort who don’t take into account the human element in this. Robotic, emotionless , cold people.

Basically scientists that never left uni like Tomas Ryan. The sooner that lad goes back under whatever rock they unearthed him from the better

manniot2 · 17-10-2020 02:11PM

charlie14 wrote: »

That is not going to change the figure of 1.1 Million dead.

So if you subtract these asymptomatic cases from the confirmed cases what then would your mortality percentage of dead to confirmed cases ?

One thing that might change the death rate is if we didn’t over inflate it at every opportunity with possible cases

3xh · 17-10-2020 02:15PM

dubdaymo wrote: »

Leo Varadkar will be fuming this morning. Having publically lambasted Holohan/NPHET for cruelly stressing out the Irish people late on a Sunday night a few weeks ago and having promised us on Claire Byrne that "this will not happen again" he has now been publically humiliated by a man hellbent on disrupting the country to the maximum. This can't go on.

This repeat is clearly a revenge attack with total disregard for the mental health of the public. I am hoping that the Govt. will hold the sensible line again but I am hoping for more.

A decision needs to be made. Whilst I have sympathy for Holohan for his family circumstances it is clear his mind has gone under the pressure and is unsuited to the job in hand. He should be removed from his position immediately and NPHET placed firmly back in their shell as nothing more than advisers with no access to the public. Every one of them should be banned from appearing on any kind of media. A criminal charge of causing Gross Mental Abuse to the Irish people should follow any breaches.

You also have to remember that this Covid thing is the most exciting thing that's ever happened to the NPHET senior people. A chance, at last, to put all their little unproven theories, experiments and "modelling" to the test - all at our expense and with no loss of income to themselves while all this is going on. The perfect storm.

I’ve been out of the loop here the past while. Stumbled on this.

Just had to say, excellent post. On all counts.

Personalities involved, the politics of it all, this media-driven elevation of NPHET to household names (it helps having a spouse in media, of course).

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 02:18PM

dalyboy wrote: »

. Influenza has MORE infection fatality rate than covid (2005-2015 estimates of influenza death rate of 0.4% . https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(19)30163-X/fulltext

The latest WHO reports show fatality rate of 0.23% for covid https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

So it really begs the question ..... wtf are governments doing ??? Locking down countries is a mad house reaction. FACT

Nonsense.

To date there are 39.3 Million confirmed cases of Covid-19 with 1.1 Million deaths.
It`s not exactly difficult to do the calculations and see it is 3%.

3xh · 17-10-2020 02:21PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Nonsense.

To date there are 39.3 Million confirmed cases of Covid-19 with 1.1 Million deaths.
It`s not exactly difficult to do the calculations and see it is 3%.

Oh dear.........smh

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 02:22PM

manniot2 wrote: »

One thing that might change the death rate is if we didn’t over inflate it at every opportunity with possible cases

Since when have possible cases included in the figure for confirmed cases anywhere

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 02:28PM

3xh wrote: »

Oh dear.........smh

If you cannot manage it I can do the calculation down to a few decimal points if you like.

walus · 17-10-2020 02:29PM

Deub wrote: »

“I expect everyone”: there, is your problem. Why everyone?

Why? Because I assumed that everyone has some expectations with regard to returning to normal. You don’t? That is fine. My assumption was wrong. Let’s make it - most people - then. Does this make more sense for you? Or you just nitpicking?

drunkmonkey · 17-10-2020 02:29PM

MelbourneMan wrote: »

NPHET is doing a terrific job.

Anybody can say lock everything down, don't let people interact and the virus won't spread you don't need any qualifications to work that one out.

They are doing a terrible and i'd nearly go as far as saying criminal job, what happened with the nursing homes was unacceptable and saying to the Irish people they can't protect them in a second wave just highlights their lack of capability, maybe they don't want to protect them as it will prove they could in the first place.

They have produced no grounding for any restrictions i've seen, we need evidence based and measurable outcomes for each recommendation.
15 people in a beer garden, where's your evidence.
Masks in every shop, No people in your garden, no intercounty travel, no sports, where's your evidence to bring it in and how do we measure it's success.

NPHET's only strategy is throw the kitchen sink at it, they have 0 idea what's working and what's not.

Level 5 will have an effect, how couldn't it locking everyone at home, unless they can give us an exit plan of how to get out of level 5 which they have failed to do for all other levels they should just go away until they come up something.
They say there's too many cases to track and trace. Who's fault is that.

3xh · 17-10-2020 02:29PM

charlie14 wrote: »

If you cannot manage it I can do the calculation down to a few decimal points if you like.

Your maths calculation is correct. Your understanding of the numbers..........needs work.

walus · 17-10-2020 02:31PM

charlie14 wrote: »

If you cannot manage it I can do the calculation down to a few decimal points if you like.

Please do. But talk to nox beforehand.

greenfield21 · 17-10-2020 02:31PM

Covid 0 is not going to happen now, lockdowns have failed us. It's time for the low risk to get back to normality.

charlie14 · 17-10-2020 02:32PM

3xh wrote: »

Your maths calculation is correct. Your understanding of the numbers..........needs work.

Very vague. Care to elaborate ?

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - Read OP for Mod Warnings