Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Run those numbers through our population and we were over half way to where Sweden is now in March/April.
With the little amount of testing Sweden did it's very hard to estimate their actual cases vs deaths.

It doesn't kill 1 in every 16/17 people who catch it. We'd be looking at 75+ deaths out of the cases today if that was the case, probably way more as how many cases did we miss today.

Sweden, UK, Ireland are all guilty of the same thing and that's the complete bags we made of the nursing homes and we're doing it again.

Your contention that 1 death to 18 confirmed cases would be a like a zombie movie plot.
I showed you countries where it was not a movie plot and that there were countries with even greater ratios of deaths to confirmed cases.
The fact that it does not fit into your narrative is not my fault that you jumped before checking your facts.


Think about perhaps just why our ratio of deaths is not that of Sweden and see why there possibly be a reason.
Btw. do you know that with all those care home deaths, Sweden actually eased restrictions on care homes since October 1st. Do you believe by doing that they have learned anything ?

Clear scientific consensus now that the "let it rip and we'll get herd immunity" idea is fully debunked. If anything, it would makes things even worse as we would end up with repeated epidemics for years on end.

"The evidence is very clear: controlling community spread of COVID-19 is the best way to protect our societies and economies until safe and effective vaccines and therapeutics arrive within the coming months. We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence."

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1316709129503768579

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Thank you.

However, we know those case fatality rates dont really mean much as countries vary a lot on testing. IFR matters. WHO themselves think 750m infected. 1M dead. Some people think thats a fake number so lets go with 2m. You do the maths after that.

I was replying to the posters assertion that 1 in 18 was crazy. Like a zombie film I believe was how he termed it if those numbers were correct.
I have shown where they were actually worse. Italy actually was another at 9.7%.
Of course all countries are different, but as far as I`m concerned the overall WHO estimate does not really matter when it comes to individual countries.
How they individually deal with this epidemic determines the ratio.

facehugger99 wrote: »

Wonder when we're going to see this lagging surge in deaths that the hysteria-merchants have been predicting for the last 8 weeks?

Who knows, but as far as I know nobody has died from Covid-19 that was not infected with the virus.

charlie14 wrote: »

Who knows, but as far as I know nobody has died from Covid-19 that was not infected with the virus.

Well we know that’s not true, even Glynn said as much at the Sub Committee when pushed on it by McNamara

Mitch Connor wrote: »

Masks aren't the thing doing this.

Wearing masks is a fairly common thing in China/Asian counties and has been since Sars. Has life ground to a halt in those countries because of that?

I think Lockdown processes need to be looked at with more subtlety but you are absolutely insane, and incorrect, and sound like an absolute loon, to say Masks are grinding life to a halt or putting people in poverty which is what you said and what you doubled down on.

But I guess you are a monkey, and drunk, so its to be expected.

You are wrong here. Masks in China or other asian countries are common thing but not "since sars". That is a misinformation used to push mask argument here.
Masks in Asia are a thing quite longer than sars and do not have anything in common with viruses. They are predominantly used in big cities or industrial centers due to issues with smog and air polution.
If you do not believe ask asian students I used to travel with bus full of them every morning when they went to uni. None of them had a mask on with exception of one - "he new from Tokyo" I was told when I asked them why does he have one on.

charlie14 wrote: »

We know that someone died from Covid-19 that was not infected by the virus. Who, where and how is that even possible ?

If I remember correctly, in the absence of a positive test, if Covid was presumed, it was noted a cause of death in some cases early in the year

charlie14 wrote: »

We know that someone died from Covid-19 that was not infected by the virus. Who, where and how is that even possible ?

As Fintan said, Glynn confirmed to the Orichtas (yeah check spelling there haha) Committee that deaths that were even suspected to be covid earlier in the year were put down as covid until a pathologist could confirm the exact cause at a later date, even if they had not been tested prior to death.

charlie14 wrote: »

I was replying to the posters assertion that 1 in 18 was crazy. Like a zombie film I believe was how he termed it if those numbers were correct.
I have shown where they were actually worse. Italy actually was another at 9.7%.
Of course all countries are different, but as far as I`m concerned the overall WHO estimate does not really matter when it comes to individual countries.
How they individually deal with this epidemic determines the ratio.

You've showed me some stats based on low sampling, am I understanding you correctly, you think there is probably not any underlying resistance and 1 in 18 or more people who contact could die, so you think the worst case scenario for deaths here may be very roughly 300,000?

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Do you have the studies to hand by any chance? Pretty much everything I’ve read recently notes that about 80% of people who test positive don’t show any symptoms whatsoever (either before or after testing positive)

The science isn't settled obviously, but I saw a good peer-reviewed paper recently which said about 20% is the rate for asymptomatic:
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003346

"We included a total of 94 studies. The overall estimate of the proportion of people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and remain asymptomatic throughout infection was 20% (95% confidence interval [CI] 17–25) with a prediction interval of 3%–67% in 79 studies that addressed this review question."

snowcat wrote: »

How is their death rate per million going? Without a lockdown. They were meant to lose somewhere around 100k people according to the medics. They have had 5k deaths. Someone explain

You are talking bout modelling figures. Do you know that Sweden`s modelling figures were even futher out than the modeling figures on deaths from Covid-19 ?


Sweden`s deaths, (and their reporting is looked on as a bit dodgy by some) are close to 6,000. Their deaths per head of population is 60% higher than ours. And we are highly likely to be over reporting.
I would ask you how to explain that, but I doubt you would come up with anything that hasn`t been shown to be incorrect so far.

facehugger99 wrote: »

Wonder when we're going to see this lagging surge in deaths that the hysteria-merchants have been predicting for the last 8 weeks?

Several weeks ago we had people on this thread slagging me off for saying that hospitalisations were increasing. The increase was obvious then no matter how much you denied it.

Now you're speculating about deaths.

Community spread will lead to hospitalisations which will lead to ICU and which will inevitably lead to deaths.

Thankfully we have better treatments being developed all the time so the death rate will be decreasing, and there is the speculation that people aren't getting as sick because they are wearing masks and distancing.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

They have the same death rate as Ireland among the vulnerable population.

They failed to protect the vulnerable and got slated in Irish media.

Ireland decided to implement some sort of bizarre lockdown that didn’t protect the vulnerable either, BUT, did better in some ridiculous point scoring matrix of deaths per million.

Which is utterly irrelevant due to Ireland’s young population

You still peddling that line attempting to explaining deaths in Sweden`s vulnerable on one outlier when I have shown you, on too many times to remember at this stage, that it is rubbish.

Also estimated so kind of pointless. I don't know how you do a confidence interval on an estimate that was provided by a model? What model did they use?

charlie14 wrote: »

I told you to cop yourself on in relation to a claim by an absolute con man that Ireland has 80% immunity.
As in "at least put a bit of thought into his rubbish before you go spreading it"
80% immunity is on or over and beyond the threshold for herd immunity.
Yet yesterday we had close to 1,100 new cases with a positive rate of over 6%
Clearly somebody`s figures are miles out. So unless you are saying that NPHET are faking the test results, the numbers of tests and the hospital admissions then how have we the 80% immunity this chancer is claiming ?

Because being tested positive without any symptoms which is absolute majority of positive cases is what immunity means. If you do not suffer from virus you are immune to it. You fail to realize that at any moment you yourself are a carrier of thousands of viruses - to which you may be or may not be immune.
I do not care what he does believe - if it is 80% or 60% point is that even if we would want to argue his point then if he says 80% immune it means that 20% could have it with some symptoms and some inconvenience and yes some of them may die. 20% means about a million of people. Did we have a million of positive cases yet? No.

You simply cant prove that his claim is wrong. You do not believe that and it is good. What is not good is that you call him names based on your own belief since you do not have facts to support what you think is truth. You simply do not know and if you are entitled to believe something he does have the same right to believe to what he wants to believe.