Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

drunkmonkey

charlie14 wrote: »

Do you actually know what statistical sampling is.?
I have shown you even worse, (your words "zombie movie") stats that you laughed at as being crazy.
Just accept you were wrong and move on.

You didn't answer the question do you honestly believe our final death toll could be north of 300,000? I think that's what your saying I just want you to confirm as I believe I've misunderstood you.

hmmm

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's the age profile of infections has changed that's why your not seeing so many very sick.

I agree with you on that. The heat maps are showing however that the age profile is changing as the younger groups bring the infection back to older age groups.

I think we're where we were at in February, but didn't know it because we didn't have the capacity to test for it. If Phase 3 works, which is probably 50:50, then we avoid having to go back into lockdowns.

charlie14

Zebra3 wrote: »

You could always add in the size of their population compared to ours, but that wouldn't fit so well, would it?

If people would actually read posts before jumping in it really would save time and effort.

Read it again. You missed "per head of population".
I can give you the fgures and you can do the calculations if you like and then let me know if I am incorrect that per head of population Sweden has 60% more deaths than Ireland

drunkmonkey

hmmm wrote: »

I agree with you on that. The heat maps are showing however that the age profile is changing as the younger groups bring the infection back to older age groups.

I think we're where we were at in February, but didn't know it because we didn't have the capacity to test for it. If Phase 3 works, which is probably 50:50, then we avoid having to go back into lockdowns.

Yay:)
You could be right about it being February again it certainly feels like it on the streets, I read today about the gaa player who's girlfriend took it into the nursing home, no lessons learned there.

I think we're going to be stuck in level 3 for a long time, I never realised they didn't publish a way to get out of it.

charlie14

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You didn't answer the question do you honestly believe our final death toll could be north of 300,000? I think that's what your saying I just want you to confirm as I believe I've misunderstood you.

No. What you are attempting to do is deflect from you being in-correct on it being crazy that there could be 1 death for every 18 confirmed cases. I have shown you countries where the ratio was even worse.
I have better for doing than playing silly games because you got it wrong.

patnor1011

AUDI20 wrote: »

You could read it both ways, which ever suits your opinion. could also mean that 90% haven't been infected as of yet.

You are right.
On the other hand, we have real-life examples too. There is a place where 100 people live and another 20 work to cater for them right? 22 of those who live there were tested positive and taken away to quarantine. None of them had any symptoms whatsoever. Talking about deer in headlights moment when they were told they have it and must go. Fast forward one month and another 20 people were tested positive. Another deer in headlights moment came.
And that is just one place where half of the people were detected. God only knows how many had it before those tests and how many after as some time already passed since last tests.

That is what I have seen and that is why I do not like people dismissing talk about 60% or even 80% immunity just because it contradicts their deadly-virus-end-of-the-life-as-we-know-it-belief. Mainly when they call them derrogatorry names just because they cant argue against their point.

charlie14

patnor1011 wrote: »

You are right.
On the other hand, we have real-life examples too. There is a place where 100 people live and another 20 work to cater for them right? 22 of those who live there were tested positive and taken away to quarantine. None of them had any symptoms whatsoever. Talking about deer in headlights moment when they were told they have it and must go. Fast forward one month and another 20 people were tested positive. Another deer in headlights moment came.
And that is just one place where half of the people were detected. God only knows how many had it before those tests and how many after as some time already passed since last tests.

That is what I have seen and that is why I do not like people dismissing talk about 60% or even 80% immunity just because it contradicts their deadly-virus-end-of-the-life-as-we-know-it-belief. Mainly when they call them derrogatorry names just because they cant argue against their point.

I have yet to see any credible argument to support the 80% herd immunity theory.
The numbers certainly do not support it and neither does the asymptomatic figure.
Unless I have missed it I haven`t seen anything else to support it.

patnor1011

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If we need 3.6 million cases the hospitals won't be able to handle people needing serious care. Icu might as well not exist. Even if we spread it out over a couple of years. Herd immunity in Ireland is like saying give me 200k deaths please.

Why would you think that 3.6 milion of the people will need hospitals? Or even ICU?

My wife's aunt and her husband got it recently. They have a cough which they said was bad few days but it is better now. They also had a 39 temperature for about 3-4 days. About a 10 days since all started and now they feel much better.
No hospital, no ventilator, no ICU for them.
They are both close to 60 and their combined weight over 300 kilo. One of them being only slightly bigger than the other one.

Fear is good. It makes you aware of the danger however if you give in to the fear it will make you insane.

patnor1011

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If you go for herd immunity the hospitals would be overwhelmed and not treating people so it's certainly possible.

In case you did not notice our hospitals were overwhelmed for the last 15 years anyway. They are fairly empty now.

drunkmonkey

charlie14 wrote: »

No. What you are attempting to do is deflect from you being in-correct on it being crazy that there could be 1 death for every 18 confirmed cases. I have shown you countries where the ratio was even worse.
I have better for doing than playing silly games because you got it wrong.

So I can take it you believe our death toll could be north of 300,000 why can't you just say it, are you afraid of being called crazy, it's not a silly game, I put the deaths at 4500 your 300,000 or worse. We don't have to agree.

AUDI20

patnor1011 wrote: »

You are right.
On the other hand, we have real-life examples too. There is a place where 100 people live and another 20 work to cater for them right? 22 of those who live there were tested positive and taken away to quarantine. None of them had any symptoms whatsoever. Talking about deer in headlights moment when they were told they have it and must go. Fast forward one month and another 20 people were tested positive. Another deer in headlights moment came.
And that is just one place where half of the people were detected. God only knows how many had it before those tests and how many after as some time already passed since last tests.

That is what I have seen and that is why I do not like people dismissing talk about 60% or even 80% immunity just because it contradicts their deadly-virus-end-of-the-life-as-we-know-it-belief. Mainly when they call them derrogatorry names just because they cant argue against their point.

Your entitled to your opinion, but not everyone would agree with you. don't see how anyone with a different view contradicts their beliefs.

charlie14

drunkmonkey wrote: »

So I can take it you believe our death toll could be north of 300,000 why can't you just say it, are you afraid of being called crazy, it's not a silly game, I put the deaths at 4500 your 300,000 or worse. We don't have to agree.

Are you sure you are not mixing me up with another poster ?
I do not recall mentioning anything about 300,000 deaths anywhere. Let alone on this thread.


I do remember saying to you that I had no interest in playing a silly little game of distractions just because you cannot accept you were wrong on your "crazy zombie movie" assertion on 1 death for 18 confirmed cases though.

patnor1011

AUDI20 wrote: »

Your entitled to your opinion, but not everyone would agree with you. don't see how anyone with a different view contradicts their beliefs.

What I am talking about is that science about this virus is changing rapidly, pretty much daily.

Yet we have people on a warpath going on constantly about lockdowns and mass graves. No argument or fact is going to work for them as they simply resigned to their own fear of death and are hell bent on projecting it on everyone else.
Because they are scared.

drunkmonkey

charlie14 wrote: »

Are you sure you are not mixing me up with another poster ?
I do not recall mentioning anything about 300,000 deaths anywhere. Let alone on this thread.


I do remember saying to you that I had no interest in playing a silly little game of distractions just because you cannot accept you were wrong on your "crazy zombie movie" assertion on 1 death for 18 confirmed cases though.

You presented figures and implied that is what were looking at, I calculated out your stats and I got a figure of 305,000. That's Zombie movie figures from you to us.
It's a very simple question that your refusing to answer, you seem to know everything about everything but can't pin your medals to your chest and say the number.

it cud be like polio, 100% get it and only 5% get the disease..

FintanMcluskey

patnor1011 wrote: »

They are both close to 60 and their combined weight over 300 kilo. One of them being only slightly bigger than the other one.

Considering T.Fury weighed about 115kg at 6’7 that is an insane stat.

charlie14

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You presented figures and implied that is what were looking at, I calculated out your stats and I got a figure of 305,000. That's Zombie movie figures from you to us.
It's a very simple question that your refusing to answer, you seem to know everything about everything but can't pin your medals to your chest and say the number.

You see that is where you have got it wrong twice now.
I gave you actual verifiable figures. Figures that are very easily found.
Had you done that rather than shot off the first thing that entered your head to shout another poster down, then you would not be now trying to dig yourself out of a hole.
You have now compounded that by, using a figure of assumed cases (at least that`s what I think they are) doing a calculation based on some figure you appear, again incorrectly, you somehow imagine that I gave you.

polesheep

hmmm wrote: »

I agree with you on that. The heat maps are showing however that the age profile is changing as the younger groups bring the infection back to older age groups.

I think we're where we were at in February, but didn't know it because we didn't have the capacity to test for it. If Phase 3 works, which is probably 50:50, then we avoid having to go back into lockdowns.

Is this true though? I'm seeing plenty of older people out and about fairly carefree.

patnor1011

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Considering T.Fury weighed about 115kg at 6’7 that is an insane stat.

60 as age.

patnor1011

polesheep wrote: »

Is this true though? I'm seeing plenty of older people out and about fairly carefree.

Of course. Because locking up old and vulnerable people would be infringing on their rights depriving them of the possibility to enjoy all society has to offer. It would be inhumane.

We all have to do it so they feel better knowing we are all in it together. I kid you not, it is like locking up everyone in a shop if there is suspicion that there may be pickpocket inside. Instead of going after obvious suspects.
And I thought I have seen it all.

CruelSummer

I really hope the Government can drown out the hysteria and hold their strategy:

1. They called the new household visit ban before the NPHET meeting, at last they cut off the Groundhog Day approach of NPHET meeting, a leak to press & all decisions made before government even sat down. Not sure if this was on purpose or just a direct response to the North’s actions Tuesday.
2. Level 4 destroys the economy - make no mistake. Most shops survival in any given year hinges on Christmas. To have to close from here to December is catastrophic for them. I don’t see why either as they’re all very strict & following the guidelines. We cannot keep jumping to level 4/5 as a strategy for Covid. At what point do we acknowledge the measures taken to control Covid could end up worse than the virus itself?
3. Try and enforce level 3 better - introduce fines for house parties or illegal gatherings.
4. Have hospitalisation numbers stabilised a bit? This is the marker for me of how we respond as if they stop functioning - other health issues are not being dealt with. The case numbers are high & the virus is spreading uncontrolled but thankfully deaths are low for now.
5. Give schools a heads up now that blended learning may be on the table - it’s better than a full closure where some children will cease to be educated and their life long outcomes will be severely hindered as a result. It could be a compromise to those campaigning to destroy our younger generation’s future. The other option would be - do a two week mid term break & come back as normal.

Graces7

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Ok but what what about the rate for very mild symptoms - as in symptoms of a common cold? If 80% are asymtomatic/or mildly symptomatic according to HSE - that’s a high number and puts perspective on the fear of one million people in Ireland being at high risk?

A mild cough and sore throat will qualify someone as symptomatic.

And they can pass it on to someone who might react more severely. So they are still covid-a9 cases - who night also have long after effects

I thought the "high risk" category applied to old and compromised folk so the million at risk is valid.

patnor1011

Graces7 wrote: »

And they can pass it on to someone who might react more severely. So they are still covid-a9 cases - who night also have long after effects

I thought the "high risk" category applied to old and compromised folk so the million at risk is valid.

Million may be at risk of having it worse than a rest. Like longer time with symptoms and longer time to get better.
Only less than half a percent of this high risk are at a risk of not surviving.

Graces7

patnor1011 wrote: »

Of course. Because locking up old and vulnerable people would be infringing on their rights depriving them of the possibility to enjoy all society has to offer. It would be inhumane.

We all have to do it so they feel better knowing we are all in it together. I kid you not, it is like locking up everyone in a shop if there is suspicion that there may be pickpocket inside. Instead of going after obvious suspects.
And I thought I have seen it all.

We ( Old folk) were never ever "locked up"! I like many decide not to risk infection and am very capable as many of us are of staying happy and sane!

Maybe look at how many old and disabled folk live indoors alone all the time? And ask " Alone" how they help and if you can help. Without risking infection and life. Elderly loneliness is a scourge in Ireland that we each as a community could do so much to alleviate

And there is so much support and practical help coming in from community groups,

Oh and that word " ban " never existed and was never used by the authorities as they are averring and reminding on rte and breaking news online. It was always a strong advisory only and still is.

Graces7

patnor1011 wrote: »

Million may be at risk of having it worse than a rest. Like longer time with symptoms and longer time to get better.
Only less than half a percent of this high risk are at a risk of not surviving.

??? some of this does not make sense. And the rest is disputable

Time I was not here, so have a good day!

patnor1011

Graces7 wrote: »

We ( Old folk) were never ever "locked up"! I like many decide not to risk infection and am very capable as many of us are of staying happy and sane!

Maybe look at how many old and disabled folk live indoors alone all the time? And ask " Alone" how they help and if you can help. Without risking infection and life. Elderly loneliness is a scourge in Ireland that we each as a community could do so much to alleviate

And there is so much support and practical help coming in from community groups,

Oh and that word " ban " never existed and was never used by the authorities as they are averring and reminding on rte and breaking news online. It was always a strong advisory only and still is.

I am sorry but you constantly lament about how people should do more to protect old and vulnerable that lockdowns and restrictions are way to go.

But when someone suggest that perhaps old and vulnerable should do more to protect themselves cocooning or restricting their movement then elderly loneliness argument come.

They will be lonely and cocooned either way if they think that will help them.

By the way being old does not mean you are vulnerable to covid. If you are old and in good health nothing serious is going to happen to you - at least data we have clearly point to that.

Please explain why restricting movement of everyone is better option than restricting movement of vulnerable people. I am genuinely curious why you think that as it is clear that virus is not going anywhere and there is precisely zero chance of eradicating it any time soon. Like many many years.

brisan

patnor1011 wrote: »

Why would you think that 3.6 milion of the people will need hospitals? Or even ICU?

My wife's aunt and her husband got it recently. They have a cough which they said was bad few days but it is better now. They also had a 39 temperature for about 3-4 days. About a 10 days since all started and now they feel much better.
No hospital, no ventilator, no ICU for them.
They are both close to 60 and their combined weight over 300 kilo. One of them being only slightly bigger than the other one.

Fear is good. It makes you aware of the danger however if you give in to the fear it will make you insane.

There again I know someone who is 53 5’8 14 stone and got Covid
Spent over 4 months in ICU
Only person in Ireland to come off a machine ( think it’s OEM ) alive
Heart attack kidney failure liver failed , permanent lung damage
Lost 7 stone
No underlying conditions
My managers mother got it in a nursing home
She is well over 80 and was a symptomatic
Hits different people in different ways

average_runner

So basically to summarize this thread up in as few points:

We don't want lockdown?
We want the disease to run rampant.
We don't want any restrictions but we aren't willing to help with the disease and follow guidelines
Our economy is f*cked apparently and its the end of the world, even though the last 2 recessions were way worst.
You can't avoid a recession, it happens after every boom, we know this is a fact as history shows.
Its ok for young people to get the virus as they don't spread it to older generation
Its ok to lock up the older generation.
Loads of suicides has happen but numbers aren't out yet.
People only care about the city centre.
We want to force every one back to the office.
We have a lot of stupid people in this country. Two examples below:

Pub down the country before the shutdown, a 21 year old(i know him) went to the pub while waiting on his covid test result that was positive and failed to let the HSE know he was in the pub during it, celebrating football on tv. Staff showed no symptons but had it, county final celebration the following week there, now over 60 has the virus, 2 in serious condition.

A county final down the country a player played when waiting on positive test result, went out on the lash with the team after, 26 people from the squad got it, one a teacher where it spread to the school now, another a pub worker where it spread more into the community. One person dead because of this individual!!!



Its a pity this virus doesn't wipe out people that are stupid and no common sense. We be in a better place right now

_Kaiser_

average_runner wrote: »

Its a pity this virus doesn't wipe out people that are stupid and no common sense. We be in a better place right now

Or.. "it's a pity this virus doesn't wipe out people that disagree with me" :rolleyes:

Charming!

You want to take your ball home now too?

323

Graces7 wrote: »

We ( Old folk) were never ever "locked up"! I like many decide not to risk infection and am very capable as many of us are of staying happy and sane!

Maybe look at how many old and disabled folk live indoors alone all the time? And ask " Alone" how they help and if you can help. Without risking infection and life. Elderly loneliness is a scourge in Ireland that we each as a community could do so much to alleviate

And there is so much support and practical help coming in from community groups,

Oh and that word " ban " never existed and was never used by the authorities as they are averring and reminding on rte and breaking news online. It was always a strong advisory only and still is.

Exactly, seen that muppet Harris (even though not his portfolio) on yesterday talking RTE about "advising" and "asking" people to do this and that, 30 seconds later RTE were referring to his requests as "Bans"