Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Russman · 11-10-2020 06:53PM

is_that_so wrote: »

We have to go with the risk and badger people constantly to behave. That could lead to a Level 2 in many places over the next 8 weeks or so. Going straight into one of the higher levels right now is a tacit admission we can't cope.

There’s logic to that, but have we not seen over the last two months say, that people just will not behave ?
Or maybe they are behaving and it is in fact the schools, I dunno.

mloc123 · 11-10-2020 06:54PM

vafankillar wrote: »

also, as a supermarket worker who works through most of chritsmas anyway, the idea that me and my co-workers should be overworked from now till december so we can save christmas for people who get 2 full weeks off isn't right either.

if we're going into lockdown it shouldn't be to save christmas, if anything it should include christmas as it would like shoot numbers back up again if we had it anyway normal.

though personally i'd like to see how level 3 works out nationally, and would like to see it policed a bit better

Exactly. Imagine we lock down for 7-8 weeks and then open up for Xmas... People will go ****ing crazy in the knowledge they have a few weeks to enjoy life before the next cycle of lockdown happens...

vafankillar · 11-10-2020 06:54PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

People judging level 3 is judging it on Dublin. Of we were to judge level 3 on Dublin cases will rise for a week or 10 days and then flatten or decline very slowly.

Is that sufficient. Where will hospital numbers and icu be when it flattens?

Do you expect level 3 nationwide to work better than Dublin?

wet pubs never opened in dublin so it's still a further restriction jump back the rest of the country will experience. now i'm not saying pubs specifically were the cause, but as it happened it's likely people were generally less disciplined with social distancing/ house parties/ masks/ etc all round as it likely felt like things were heading that way with pubs open.

Gruffalux · 11-10-2020 06:55PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Unfortunately with no sign of the virus easing off and talk of no one going to take the vaccine xmas 2021/2022 will be no different either. F*****g depressing.

I really think that there will be some kind of good instant test developed eventually. A spit on it kind of thing that shows if virus is present. We will all have a pack of tests in our pocket and check before we hug granny

. Then all events could take place as per normal, planes full, buses, parties, concerts, all the craic. Be hopeful.

Russman · 11-10-2020 06:58PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Exactly. Imagine we lock down for 7-8 weeks and then open up for Xmas... People will go ****ing crazy in the knowledge they have a few weeks to enjoy life before the next cycle of lockdown happens...

Holohan made essentially that point last week I think. Sort of said that if people go mental over Christmas from a starting base of 50 cases per day, we’d be ok, but if they did it from a base of 500 per day, we’d be in big trouble.

Beasty · 11-10-2020 06:58PM

The early stages of this virus, the first "phase" was all about flattening the curve, to take pressure off the health services. We were very successful in that, which was followed by an extended period of low infections. That has given us some of the breathing space we needed and I think we are better placed than we would otherwise have been heading into the winter flu season. Hopefully the social distancing and mask wearing we continue to practice will also temper the effects of flu over the winter

A lot of specialists have been warning us all along that the second phase can often be more serious than the first with a pandemic like this. I think that although we may find more infections as this ramps up again, hopefully what we have already learned, and indeed changes in behaviour of the vast majority of people, will help reduce the unfortunate numbers who will continue to perish due to this virus. Of course we will always have the know-it-alls who don't give a toss about anyone else and will not observe the things they are being asked to do to try and reduce the impact

We are now though in a phase of living with this. It's a matter of containment rather than elimination. A complete lockdown will probably create as many problems/issues as it solves. Yes it means we have to accept there will be more deaths, but this is something we all "live" with anyway. None of us know how much time we have left. Some high risk individuals manage to fight off this disease when the odds are heavily stacked against them - again that is part of "life"

So in my view we have to get on with things. We must apply reasonable restrictions and should name/shame/penalise those who flout them.

In another 6 months we may be into "wave" 3, or we may be in a position where we are starting to banish this virus. None of us can know at this stage. We must be prepared to make further sacrifices for the good of ourselves as well as others, but there is no point in sacrificing everything else to fight this. There is a balance to be struck. I think that to date Ireland has done quite well in comparison to some of our international neighbours. However ultimately we are all in this, including those neighbours, and we actually need to work together to try and come up with a coordinated approach. I think the scientists have adopted such an approach, although we continue to see politicians trying to score points rather than focus on finding a way through this

Roger_007 · 11-10-2020 07:00PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

I really think that there will be some kind of good instant test developed eventually. A spit on it kind of thing that shows if virus is present. We will all have a pack of tests in our pocket and check before we hug granny . Then all events could take place as per normal, planes full, buses, parties, concerts, all the craic. Be hopeful.

Good luck with that.:pac:

Gruffalux · 11-10-2020 07:02PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Good luck with that.:pac:

Thanks.

Happydays2020 · 11-10-2020 07:02PM

Russman wrote: »

Holohan made essentially that point last week I think. Sort of said that if people go mental over Christmas from a starting base of 50 cases per day, we’d be ok, but if they did it from a base of 500 per day, we’d be in big trouble.

I think they need to manage expectations that it will not be a normal Christmas and nor should it be.

Endeavour to have testing in place to allow people return from overseas etc. Facilitate religious ceremonies as much as possible, try to discourage last minute shopping and have messaging that focuses on the family unit.

There will not be race meetings or Rugby matches or work nights out or big work lunches. If restaurants can open and facilitate small gatherings then that will be a bonus.

Will Yam · 11-10-2020 07:03PM

Extraordinary figures on covid website this evening.

Over 65s hospitalised since the start are 2204. Yesterday they were 1992. That means 212 over 65s admitted to hospital in last 24 hours alone.

Almost 10% of total since March. How can this be?

And only 92 in the last 19 days.

Something not quite right here.

11-10-2020 07:04PM

Great words Beasty, the sooner the majority of people realise the power to halt this is in their hands, the sooner we can stop talking about lockdowns being inevitable and get on with our lives in this "new normal".

Russman · 11-10-2020 07:05PM

Beasty wrote: »

The early stages of this virus, the first "phase" was all about flattening the curve, to take pressure off the health services. We were very successful in that, which was followed by an extended period of low infections. That has given us some of the breathing space we needed and I think we are better placed than we would otherwise have been heading into the winter flu season. Hopefully the social distancing and mask wearing we continue to practice will also temper the effects of flu over the winter

A lot of specialists have been warning us all along that the second phase can often be more serious than the first with a pandemic like this. I think that although we may find more infections as this ramps up again, hopefully what we have already learned, and indeed changes in behaviour of the vast majority of people, will help reduce the unfortunate numbers who will continue to perish due to this virus. Of course we will always have the know-it-alls who don't give a toss about anyone else and will not observe the things they are being asked to do to try and reduce the impact

We are now though in a phase of living with this. It's a matter of containment rather than elimination. A complete lockdown will probably create as many problems/issues as it solves. Yes it means we have to accept there will be more deaths, but this is something we all "live" with anyway. None of us know how much time we have left. Some high risk individuals manage to fight off this disease when the odds are heavily stacked against them - again that is part of "life"

So in my view we have to get on with things. We must apply reasonable restrictions and should name/shame/penalise those who flout them.

In another 6 months we may be into "wave" 3, or we may be in a position where we are starting to banish this virus. None of us can know at this stage. We must be prepared to make further sacrifices for the good of ourselves as well as others, but there is no point in sacrificing everything else to fight this. There is a balance to be struck. I think that to date Ireland has done quite well in comparison to some of our international neighbours. However ultimately we are all in this, including those neighbours, and we actually need to work together to try and come up with a coordinated approach. I think the scientists have adopted such an approach, although we continue to see politicians trying to score points rather than focus on finding a way through this

The big, perhaps uniquely Irish, problem with that is our hospital and ICU capacity.
If they were to be overrun and you have people dying with non covid issues who might survive but need ICU being refused a bed as they’re all taken up with COVID patients, or indeed the opposite, a young COViD patient who might survive with a few days in ICU but there’s no capacity, there’d be mayhem.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 11-10-2020 07:06PM

Will Yam wrote: »

Extraordinary figures on covid website this evening.

Over 65s hospitalised since the start are 2204. Yesterday they were 1992. That means 212 over 65s admitted to hospital in last 24 hours alone.

Almost 10% of total since March. How can this be?

And only 92 in the last 19 days.

Something not quite right here.

Which website? As you say something is wrong with those figures so I want to check your source.

niallo27 · 11-10-2020 07:07PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

People judging level 3 is judging it on Dublin. Of we were to judge level 3 on Dublin cases will rise for a week or 10 days and then flatten or decline very slowly.

Is that sufficient. Where will hospital numbers and icu be when it flattens?

Do you expect level 3 nationwide to work better than Dublin?

Yes I do, because it felt a bit of a token gesture and nobody took it seriously. The whole country on level 3 has a different feel to it.

11-10-2020 07:07PM

Ger Roe wrote: »

The high risk sections of society are protecting/being protected better than when we didn't know what we were facing, at the start. The virus has not changed (reduced in effectiveness), but because most of us are acting smarter, it will take a higher case count than at the start, to start infecting the more vulnerable.

The other death count risk is from other medical problems that will not be dealt with because the hospitals will be dealing with increased covid cases - although they will hopefully now have better outcomes (less covid death), due to the patients being less vulnerable and the fact that the hospitals have more experience of treatments.

A HSE director said at one of the conferences last week that an average non covid stay in hospital is 5 days, but the average Covid stay is 20. That in itself is a problem that needs to be avoided if the hospitals have any hope in dealing with even the normal winter issues - thankfully there is no mention of a vomit bug yet.

There was a major Norovirus outbreak in Dublin hospital recently, I heard from a staff member. It is extremely infectious & resistant to most ordinary disinfectant measures you might use at home. Although highly unpleasant & disabling whilst it lasts, it is fairly harmless to most folk, certainly compared to Covid, and its worst effects rarely last more than 2-3 days. It remains indeed tipsy for up to 2 weeks after the illness, which is why it spreads so easily. Personally any time I have got it has followed either using a public toilet or at sign of peace in church, and since I avoided those I have avoided that illness. Don't want to get that with the stoma above all things as its onset can confused with a serious blockage. Nobody with any vomiting or watery diarrhoea should go near a hospital unless they are also seriously ill.

I have known one or two friends to present themselves at an emergency department with a bout, especially if they haven't experienced the dramatic projectile vomiting before and imagine they're in some sort of serious trouble. The last thing hospitals need to be dealing with on top of Covid and influenza.

Russman · 11-10-2020 07:09PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I think they need to manage expectations that it will not be a normal Christmas and not should it be.

Endeavour to have testing in place to allow people return from overseas etc. Facilitate religious ceremonies as much as possible, try to discourage last minute shopping and have messaging that focuses on the family unit.

There will not be race meetings or Rugby matches or work nights out or big work lunches. If restaurants can open and facilitate small gatherings then that will be a bonus.

Totally agree, but we all know the realities of people and Christmas and drink. Great in theory but try telling the lads that they can’t do some version of “the 12 pubs“

Funsterdelux · 11-10-2020 07:11PM

Dont forget the last sunday of October to put the clocks back

And also to flick that covid circuit breaker

odyssey06 · 11-10-2020 07:11PM

Deleted User wrote: »

There was a major Norovirus outbreak in Dublin hospital recently, I heard from a staff member. It is extremely infectious & resistant to most ordinary disinfectant measures you might use at home.

Worth calling out hand sanitiser will not kill norovirus (aka winter vomiting bug).

Need an info campaign this winter from the HSE of the importance of hand washing with soap before eating.

Turtwig · 11-10-2020 07:11PM

Ficheall wrote: »

Have you a source for this? I'd been working on the assumption it was three weeks.

It varies between studies and I suspect countries. I can provide some if you wish but will admit openly I've none relating Ireland. Six weeks seem to the median.

The general logic is as follows:
(indiviual level)
Cases are found through contact tracing earlier.
This means rather than being confirmed through a test for covid when an indiviual presents in hospital they are detected with covid prior to having any symptoms.
Patient may yet take ten days to show symptoms
Patient may take 20 days in hospital before dying.
Deaths have to be formally notified to relevant health authority.

As community transmission and test positivity increases the case to death lag reduces as more cases become confirmd through presenting with onset of severe illness.

(population level)
Early demographics affected would be at lowered risk to severe illness but as the virus spreads in the community higher risk demographics inevitably become exposed. Then the deaths start rising. As lower risk groups still remain the primary driver of spread there is a lag between case trends and death trends.

Hope this helps.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 11-10-2020 07:12PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes I do, because it felt a bit of a token gesture and nobody took it seriously. The whole country on level 3 has a different feel to it.

I haven't been outside Dublin so my experience is based on That. I noticed when Dublin went level 3. I haven't noticed a difference in Dublin since nationwide level 3 came in.

I hope whole country level 3 works well but mm only able to judge on dublin level 3 and to be honest I'm a little negative.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-10-2020 07:12PM

Russman wrote: »

Totally agree, but we all know the realities of people and Christmas and drink. Great in theory but try telling the lads that they can’t do some version of “the 12 pubs“

The lads will just have to forego it this year.

Curious_Case · 11-10-2020 07:13PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

I really think that there will be some kind of good instant test developed eventually. A spit on it kind of thing that shows if virus is present. We will all have a pack of tests in our pocket and check before we hug granny . Then all events could take place as per normal, planes full, buses, parties, concerts, all the craic. Be hopeful.

Hopefully something gets thrown off in the breath of an infected person that some sort of breathiliser can detect ???

Roger_007 · 11-10-2020 07:14PM

Deleted User wrote: »

There was a major Norovirus outbreak in Dublin hospital recently, I heard from a staff member. It is extremely infectious & resistant to most ordinary disinfectant measures you might use at home. Although highly unpleasant & disabling whilst it lasts, it is fairly harmless to most folk, certainly compared to Covid, and its worst effects rarely last more than 2-3 days. It remains indeed tipsy for up to 2 weeks after the illness, which is why it spreads so easily. Personally any time I have got it has followed either using a public toilet or at sign of peace in church, and since I avoided those I have avoided that illness. Don't want to get that with the stoma above all things as its onset can confused with a serious blockage. Nobody with any vomiting or watery diarrhoea should go near a hospital unless they are also seriously ill.

I have known one or two friends to present themselves at an emergency department with a bout, especially if they haven't experienced the dramatic projectile vomiting before and imagine they're in some sort of serious trouble. The last thing hospitals need to be dealing with on top of Covid and influenza.

I wish I could remain tipsy for the next two years.........maybe this thing would be over by then.:)

Gruffalux · 11-10-2020 07:16PM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Hopefully something gets thrown off in the breath of an infected person that some sort of breathiliser can detect ???

A stool test would be the most awkward before hugging grannies.

Gods Gift · 11-10-2020 07:16PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Dont forget the last sunday of October to put the clocks back

And also to flick that covid circuit breaker

Can we put them back to last October.

Funsterdelux · 11-10-2020 07:17PM

Gods Gift wrote: »

Can we put them back to last October.

You want to live through this again?

Forward to next october

vafankillar · 11-10-2020 07:19PM

if anything I feel like dublin has gotten worse since the last weekend level 5 scare cos people are afraid every few days could be their last chance to go for outside dining or shopping in town.

especially since the people who want a lockdown keep saying it's inevitable, almost making it a self-fulfilling prophecy by making the current measures almost pointless to adhere to since 'ah sure we're going into lockdown anyway "

Gods Gift · 11-10-2020 07:19PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

You want to live through this again?

Forward to next october

I would go to wuhan and make sure that bat is cooked through.

hmmm · 11-10-2020 07:20PM

mloc123 wrote: »

All this "save Christmas" talk is nonsense... You honestly think in 10 weeks time we can all go around and visit multiple family houses a day, head out for drinks etc...?

It is not gonna happen, even with level 5 tomorrow... Accept it now and stop dreaming.

Agreed. And there is a suggestion from many I see interviewed in the media that we should have a full lockdown for weeks to allow us have this type of Christmas.

I'm guessing that the people calling for this are not some of the hundreds of thousands who would be made unemployed by a full lockdown or would lose their businesses, and aren't too worried about paying the taxes that would be required to pay for this.

I can understand calls for lockdowns if it would stop the virus, but calls for lockdowns so you can have dinner with an extended family on one day of the year is the height of selfishness.

Time for some tough and frank talk from our political leaders. Have Christmas with your families this year, and we can go back to near-normal next year.

martingriff · 11-10-2020 07:21PM

niallo27 wrote: »

The problem is that the people having the parties have little to no risk of getting sick from this virus, it won't affect them or their friends so its hard for them to just stop living for 1 to 2 years. Actually its impossible to expect them to do it.

We are not asking them to stop living just having a bit cop on. You can go and meet people and nothing wrong with a drink or 2 but do it safely How about if they give it to someone who it can effect

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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