Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Brianmwalker · 11-10-2020 06:17PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

We'd much higher cases in reality back in April.

And deaths aren't reported instantly.

niallo27 · 11-10-2020 06:18PM

Russman wrote: »

Who said anything about 1 to 2 years ?
Are these people really incapable of going on the dry for a month or two though ?

What do you expect will happen after a month, the cases will just rise again. They already done it once from march and we are right back in the same place

tastyt · 11-10-2020 06:19PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1315237626744500225

Serious question - why is the death rate so low when we have reached record case numbers?

I think it’s because the age profile of the people now getting the virus. Back in March and April it had got into nursing homes and the older age groups and really ripped through them. This time around it seems the average age of people getting is is dropping constantly and are able to shake it off

Turtwig · 11-10-2020 06:19PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I think it depends on if people are willing to accept non covid healthcare being cancelled. Its happened in some hospitals recently and will probably happen more soon.

This needs to be communicated more to the public. Hospitals with excess COVID have to curtail services. We keep hearing about 490+ beds ICU surge capacity. We should be told the metric at which most hospitals have no choices but to cancel routine non COVID services due to diversion of resources.

Sadly, I don't think the capacity will ever be framed this way. Rather, the biggest and best possible number will be repeated over and over.

11-10-2020 06:20PM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Looks like level 3 isn't reducing numbers the way we would have hoped. Unfortunately I can see them going to 5 in a week or so. Crap situation all round.

Sick of reading this crap. What way were we hoping? I'd love to know what the expectation was so I can understand why numbers aren't reducing in the "way we hoped".

The plan is called "Living With Covid" the clue is literally in the name. There's zero appetite to go back to shutting down most businesses in the country.

Gruffalux · 11-10-2020 06:20PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1315237626744500225

Serious question - why is the death rate so low when we have reached record case numbers?

Had to check who this person is and yep, they have a senior position in academia, media and within the EU. Weird then that they would be so disingenuous as to try and create a narrative by using the very highest one day death total, which was not repeated, to compare to today, and also willfully ignoring than we were getting fractions of the true number of cases in April. This person is supposed to be a clever clogs.

Inquitus · 11-10-2020 06:21PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I didn't drip feed, I posted a link where you can read exactly what the doctor said but here it is, just in case

So, according to the WHO countries should only lockdown to prepare medical facilities etc to be able to better cope with an influx of patients and not use it to try and stop the spread of the virus. It should be a one and done type of thing.

He's mainly directing his statement at 3rd world countries, the impact on day wage workers in India of their lockdown was drastic in the extreme, it doesn't really apply to developed nations.

Russman · 11-10-2020 06:22PM

niallo27 wrote: »

What do you expect will happen after a month, the cases will just rise again. They already done it once from march and we are right back in the same place

And that’s the way it’s going to play out for the next 9-12 months.

stephenjmcd · 11-10-2020 06:24PM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Looks like level 3 isn't reducing numbers the way we would have hoped. Unfortunately I can see them going to 5 in a week or so. Crap situation all round.

Its not going to have any impact in the space of less than a week.

These cases were seeded before level 3 was announced.

niallo27 · 11-10-2020 06:25PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Had to check who this person is and yep, they have a senior position in academia, media and within the EU. Weird then that they would be so disingenuous as to try and create a narrative by using the very highest one day death total, which was not repeated, to compare to today, and also willfully ignoring than we were getting fractions of the true number of cases in April. This person is supposed to be a clever clogs.

Ok how about the 7 day average from march/April of 69 people dead a day to the 7 day average of 3 dead a day today

GooglePlus · 11-10-2020 06:25PM

niallo27 wrote: »

So we shouldn't be rushing into a full lockdown if that's the case.

Easier to maintain at an early stage. We'd do in 4 weeks now what would take 8 weeks in 2 weeks time.

Turtwig · 11-10-2020 06:26PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Had to check who this person is and yep, they have a senior position in academia, media and within the EU. Weird then that they would be so disingenuous as to try and create a narrative by using the very highest one day death total, which was not repeated, to compare to today, and also willfully ignoring than we were getting fractions of the true number of cases in April. This person is supposed to be a clever clogs.

A big red flag for me is people who don't change their position on anything new and cutting edge in a few months. Dan has been pursuing this rhetoric since day one.

I don't know if it's disingenuous. It's incompetence maybe? Definitely disappointing.

Just got clarity.
We have lower positivity rates in tests.
(though this worryingly rising)
Our criteria for testing is far less stringent. You required at least two symptoms back in March.
Deaths lag cases by about six weeks.
In Ireland in can take up to three months for some deaths to be notified.

martingriff · 11-10-2020 06:26PM

MarkY91 wrote: »

Lockdown = thousands of house parties around the country 7 nights per week. Especially coming into halloween then the Christmas season.

Ya lockdown to blame people have no responsible what so ever

is_that_so · 11-10-2020 06:27PM

Bananaleaf wrote: »

Missed the breakdown for Donegal but in Dublin, sure there are still maskless protests going on so level 3 not being given much of a chance to be fair. But yeah, we need a level 5 to get a handle on it.

A few people throwing insults at each other outside the Dail in the open air is not really going to upset things.

niallo27 · 11-10-2020 06:27PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Easier to maintain at an early stage. We'd do in 4 weeks now what would take 8 weeks in 2 weeks time.

Would you not give level 3 a chance, closing all the pubs and restaurants and stopping people from any holidays in Ireland was a pretty major step and should be given time to work before just putting half a million out of work.

landofthetree · 11-10-2020 06:28PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1315237626744500225

Serious question - why is the death rate so low when we have reached record case numbers?

Because people like my parents who are over 70 arent going out anywhere.

Me and my siblings do there shopping and dont go within 2m of them.

Beasty · 11-10-2020 06:28PM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Looks like level 3 isn't reducing numbers the way we would have hoped. Unfortunately I can see them going to 5 in a week or so. Crap situation all round.

Level 3 has not been in place for most of the country for a week yet. You do understand there is always a timelag between cause and effect? Look at the Dublin figures to understand the potential impact of level 3 as the effects permeate the rest of the country

tastyt · 11-10-2020 06:28PM

In order to protect as many businesses as possible there can be no further lockdown, for one thing the country can’t afford to keep paying PUP indefinitely.

However in order to protect our vulnerable I think the government need to halt sporting training and gatherings. Too many cases coming from here

Inquitus · 11-10-2020 06:28PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Easier to maintain at an early stage. We'd do in 4 weeks now what would take 8 weeks in 2 weeks time.

Aye the Government are sleepwalking into a mess here, a lockdown now could mean Christmas is OK, instead they bury their head in the sand until the HSE is nearly overrun and they have no choice but to introduce it in 4-5 weeks time.

washman3 · 11-10-2020 06:29PM

Russman wrote: »

And that’s the way it’s going to play out for the next 9-12 months.

And what happens then.....:rolleyes:

Russman · 11-10-2020 06:31PM

washman3 wrote: »

And what happens then.....:rolleyes:

Every chance there’ll be a vaccine by next summer.

kenmc · 11-10-2020 06:31PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1315237626744500225

Serious question - why is the death rate so low when we have reached record case numbers?

In march and April, in order to get tested you needed two, even three symptoms to get referred. So the ones that were tested were likely the ones which were sickest, while there were probably a multiple of those who were asymptomatic or only with one or two symptoms who didn't get referred and ultimately recovered.

The sickest or unluckiest of the very sick, those who were sick enough to get tested, ended up in hospital, ICU and in some cases unfortunately dead.

What we're seeing now is hopefully a more accurate count of some sick and many not so sick people, with some of the sick ending up in hospital and worse.

is_that_so · 11-10-2020 06:32PM

Beasty wrote: »

Level 3 has not been in place for most of the country for a week yet. You do understand there is always a timelag between cause and effect? Look at the Dublin figures to understand the potential impact of level 3 as the effects permeate the rest of the country

The political mood seems to be to stay at Level 3 and to live with it. We can certainly expect big enough numbers for a while.

wadacrack · 11-10-2020 06:32PM

tastyt wrote: »

In order to protect as many businesses as possible there can be no further lockdown, for one thing the country can’t afford to keep paying PUP indefinitely.

However in order to protect our vulnerable I think the government need to halt sporting training and gatherings. Too many cases coming from here

They have been stopped bar elite sporting activities. It was going fine for the majority of sports but the GAA County finals etc have really caused some problems and now all sports will suffer likely until next year.

Gruffalux · 11-10-2020 06:33PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Ok how about the 7 day average from march/April of 69 people dead a day to the 7 day average of 3 dead a day today

|The incidence of the virus circulating in the country is only starting to get bigger now. It was not that high for a long time, and even when it was 100 or 200 cases a day, we were detecting most cases, and the circulating virus was low. I do not think it was low in February, March, April. But time will tell. Also 20% of people who had virus back then were elderly people and now that number is much lower. If someone has scientific evidence that the virus has mutated to be significantly different to what it was I would like to read it.

Ficheall · 11-10-2020 06:34PM

Turtwig wrote: »

Deaths lag cases by about six weeks.

Have you a source for this? I'd been working on the assumption it was three weeks.

niallo27 · 11-10-2020 06:34PM

kenmc wrote: »

In march and April, in order to get tested you needed two, even three symptoms to get referred. So the ones that were tested were likely the ones which were sickest, while there were probably a multiple of those who were asymptomatic or only with one or two symptoms who didn't get referred and ultimately recovered.

The sickest or unluckiest of the very sick, those who were sick enough to get tested, ended up in hospital, ICU and in some cases unfortunately dead.

What we're seeing now is hopefully a more accurate count of some sick and many not so sick people, with some of the sick ending up in hospital and worse.

Yes but the graph is for deaths not for case numbers.

is_that_so · 11-10-2020 06:34PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye the Government are sleepwalking into a mess here, a lockdown now could mean Christmas is OK, instead they bury their head in the sand until the HSE is nearly overrun and they have no choice but to introduce it in 4-5 weeks time.

As more than one of our ministers has said, it's very hard to reverse back out of higher levels. A Level 4-5 could still be in place at Christmas anyway. It is a risk but they are genuinely banking on us to rise to the challenge of staying at Level 3.

wadacrack · 11-10-2020 06:34PM

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1315344801999527942

Russman · 11-10-2020 06:34PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The political mood seems to be to stay at Level 3 and to live with it. We can certainly expect big enough numbers for a while.

I’d say there’s also an element of “we can’t go to 5 now, we’ll look like complete idiots, let’s cross our fingers that L3 works”

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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