Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Goldengirl · 09-10-2020 01:01AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Massive and exponential increase in cases which has already started - surge in hospitalisations then a surge in critical care usage, overwhelming of health systems due to combination of winter illnesses and covid.

This can't be avoided.

In the United States 32 states now have cases accelerating and the most acute surges are in the northern states. Canada is seeing record case numbers as well.

The seasonal risks have not been discussed remotely enough throughout this although the CDC has been blue in the face warning about Autumn, Winter and Spring surge. This has not been reported as much in the media as it should have been.

Wisconsin is really bad .

spookwoman · 09-10-2020 01:06AM

Restrictions only came in on the 27th March. Since then we have had some sort of restriction in place to slow the numbers. Last time we have 170 was back in 31st May.

Arghus · 09-10-2020 01:08AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Wow really? I thought it was 500

How does the figure of 900 compare with a peak in a flu season does anyone know?

I don't know the figures for flu I'm afraid.

The peak number of ICU admissions was around 160.

How many spare ICU beds do we have at the minute again? 35? 36?

Wolf359f · 09-10-2020 01:10AM

spookwoman wrote: »

Dublin definitely seems to be slowing.

Goldengirl · 09-10-2020 01:11AM

440Hertz wrote: »

Yeah it's been in perma-crisis for as long as I have been alive.

I brought Dublin based elderly relative of mine to an A&E in the Mater one afternoon last year after a fall and we got seen at about 4am and it was pure chaos waiting.

She's in her mid 80s, immune suppressed and has cancer which has impacted her bones so has back problems and so on, but is very sprightly. We were put into a waiting area where this junky kept harassing everyone and ripping his drip out every 10 mins spraying IV line fluid all over the floor as he had to keep going out for a smoke.

Then we'd a woman faking seizures on the ground to get drugs!

We felt extremely unsafe as the night progressed and people got rougher. Also she was put right next to a guy who seemed to have some kind of fever, which I thought was absolutely insane stuff.

Then eventually I had to give up my seat entirely as there were patients who needed them, so I spent 5 hours sitting on the floor. They didn't even have a stackable chair I could use.

There was no source of food, no coffee / tea, nothing. Couldn't even realistically get to a vending machine.

Absolute disgrace of a system.

How the hell this system will cope in a serious crisis is beyond me. It only barely survived earlier this year as things didn't get that extreme and the decks had been somehow cleared.

I just have a REALLY bad feeling about what's coming this winter and we are going to pay dearly for failing to invest in essential healthcare capacity over the last 30+ years.

Yes. It is awful
Imagine how it feels to have to face into a 12 hour shift in most of the A& Es in the country , especially this time of year .
Healthcare workers have been calling this out for years .

440Hertz · 09-10-2020 01:14AM

Arghus wrote: »

I don't know the figures for flu I'm afraid.

The peak number of ICU admissions was around 160.

How many spare ICU beds do we have at the minute again? 35? 36?

See: https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid19-daily-operations-update-2000-08-october-2020.pdf

Looks like 34 adult and 7 paediatric.

Cities (major acute hospitals)

Dublin: 14
Beaumont 10
Tallaght 1
St Vincents 1
St James 1
Connolly 1
Mater 0

CHI Temple St 2 (Paediatric)
CHI Crumlin - 5 (Paediatric)

Cork: 0
CUH 0
Mercy 0

Limerick, UHL 2
Galway, GUH 0
Wateford, UHW 3

Two major cities: Cork (serving 542,868 people) and Galway (serving 258,058 at least) with no capacity at all!!

Actually slightly worse, when you consider there's no beds open anywhere in Cork/Kerry - 690,575 people.

Other regions (organised by capacity, rather than geography)

Drogheda 3

Naas 2
Mayo 2
Cavan 2

Tullamore 1
Sligo 1
Letterkenny 1

No capacity:
UHK (Kerry)- 0
Portlaoise - 0
Portiuncula - 0 (East Galway Rural)
Navan - 0
Kilkenny - 0

spookwoman · 09-10-2020 01:21AM

The first case of Covid was recorded here on the 29/2/2020, By the 20/3/2020 there was 211 cases hospitalised then it jumped to 834 on the 30/3/2020. Operations reports doesn't go back that far, first record is 13/04/2020 wit 879 hospitalised.

caveat emptor · 09-10-2020 01:24AM

This is really worrying that the scamdemics are causing such damage. Going to get bad in north of England. (If it isn’t already)

https://twitter.com/peterjukes/status/1314337209395408897?s=21

CalamariFritti · 09-10-2020 01:46AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

This is our lives for the foreseeable. Have to adapt now

I am certain that is not going to happen.

Not just because I want it that way - I do - but we are currently living in a temporary illusion kept alive by the money printing machines at the ECB.
Reality will catch up with that soon enough. We all better get used to herd immunity.

440Hertz · 09-10-2020 01:46AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

This is really worrying that the scamdemics are causing such damage. Going to get bad in north of England. (If it isn’t already)

I guess this is the downside of social media.

If this had been 30 years ago, they would have had to get public attention by actually approaching media outlets, who'd have had a good laugh at them.

Instead, they build up huge followings online based on people who want to hear facts that suit their beliefs (in this case burying their heads in the sand about the scary virus) so they end up growing online and then getting traditional media coverage driven off that.

Perfect storm in many ways, we've conspiracy theories flying around the place undermining public health messaging, an internet troll occupying the White House and just general chaos going on.

You really couldn't make it up!

440Hertz · 09-10-2020 01:53AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I am certain that is not going to happen.

Not just because I want it that way - I do - but we are currently living in a temporary illusion kept alive by the money printing machines at the ECB.
Reality will catch up with that soon enough. We all better get used to herd immunity.

It will certainly catch up for smaller currencies, the Fed, ECB and also China will get away with it for a lot longer.

Smaller currencies face devaluation risks, which really matter, as they're buying goods and services in $ and Eur.

Big fiat currencies are very unfair tools in many respects, as the big ones can pull stunts the small ones absolutely cannot.

The other side of this is that there's scant evidence of herd immunity working, in which case we're in huge hot water if that were the strategy pursued on its own. You'd be looking at massive social impacts and economic ones and I think that's something you will be looking at in countries with less stable economic footings and dense urban populations, e.g: much of Latin America.

I think you're right though, we're going to be facing a pretty serious economic bang at some stage. How big, nobody knows as it's a really unprecedented scenario and it's global, so you may end up with some degree of a major coordinated reset.

PTH2009 · 09-10-2020 02:01AM

when i was always think of the Southern Hemisphere i always just think its Australia, New Zealand And South Africa (Its prob cause of the rugby). I always forget about south america with some ultra European culture countries

CalamariFritti · 09-10-2020 02:04AM

I dont think herd immunity means that the virus goes away. I think it means there is enough resistance in the population that it just bubbles away at lowish levels. Like known seasonal diseases, like the flu for example. People will still be dying from this in ten years time, but we won't be talking about it.

Polar101 · 09-10-2020 02:11AM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

People will still be dying from this in ten years time, but we won't be talking about it.

You may be right, but I hope it's the exact opposite - people won't be dying from it in 10 years, and we'll only be talking about it, because anything like it hasn't happened since.

bb1234567 · 09-10-2020 02:13AM

But covid doesn't just bubble away that's the problem. It just spreads very quickly and doesnt seem to naturally subside until a large majority of the population has been infected. Some countries like Peru have shown that up to 2/3 of the population have been infected, flu will not infect more than 10-20% of a given population per season. But this is good in a way as once herd immunity is achieved with covid it might just go away forever for that exact reason

Goldengirl · 09-10-2020 02:21AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

But covid doesn't just bubble away that's the problem. It just spreads very quickly and doesnt seem to naturally subside until a large majority of the population has been infected. Some countries like Peru have shown that up to 2/3 of the population have been infected, flu will not infect more than 10-20% of a given population per season. But this is good in a way as once herd immunity is achieved with covid it might just go away forever for that exact reason

You are assuming that immunity it lasts more than a couple of months ...

Kermit.de.frog · 09-10-2020 02:28AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

But covid doesn't just bubble away that's the problem. It just spreads very quickly and doesnt seem to naturally subside until a large majority of the population has been infected. Some countries like Peru have shown that up to 2/3 of the population have been infected, flu will not infect more than 10-20% of a given population per season. But this is good in a way as once herd immunity is achieved with covid it might just go away forever for that exact reason

COVID-19 effects certain vital organs in the body like the heart and lungs in a way not fully understood yet.

People focus on the deaths today but how many will have their lives cut short later due to damage done by this disease?

That is the big unknown.

ceadaoin. · 09-10-2020 02:30AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Massive and exponential increase in cases which has already started - surge in hospitalisations then a surge in critical care usage, overwhelming of health systems due to combination of winter illnesses and covid.

This can't be avoided.

In the United States 32 states now have cases accelerating and the most acute surges are in the northern states. Canada is seeing record case numbers as well.

The seasonal risks have not been discussed remotely enough throughout this although the CDC has been blue in the face warning about Autumn, Winter and Spring surge. This has not been reported as much in the media as it should have been.

Remember a few months ago when according to you, the healthcare systems in texas and Florida were on the verge of collapse? Didnt happen. And hasn't happened anywhere except italy, not even New york.

Argentina is in the midst of one of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, over 100 days. How come it isn't stopping the spread?

bodhrandude · 09-10-2020 03:42AM

I got this from the Covid thread in the Glastonbury efestival forum. The tweet was put there by Deadline accidentally and was withdrawn again.

Ej1ygv1XYAEwBTC?format=jpg&name=small

fritzelly · 09-10-2020 04:23AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

I got this from the Covid thread in the Glastonbury efestival forum. The tweet was put there by Deadline accidentally and was withdrawn again.

Because it was fake news

https://deadline.com/2020/10/deadline-correction-1234594192/

One of those what if scenarios that media have prepared

Renjit · 09-10-2020 07:00AM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Remember a few months ago when according to you, the healthcare systems in texas and Florida were on the verge of collapse? Didnt happen. And hasn't happened anywhere except italy, not even New york.

Argentina is in the midst of one of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world, over 100 days. How come it isn't stopping the spread?

Read more about the lockdown timeline in Argentina. You will know. Juxtapose it with the number of cases on timeline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Argentina#First_measures

A half assed lockdown is not going to work. I am not in favor of lockdown either. It should be collective responsibility of people. The weakest link in the chain will break it.

CruelSummer · 09-10-2020 07:08AM

This Forbes article re vaccines in development is quite concerning.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/09/23/covid-19-vaccine-protocols-reveal-that-trials-are-designed-to-succeed/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Their interim analysis data are based on small numbers and success in primary analysis is just 60%:
“ For Johnson & Johnson, their interim analysis includes 77 vaccine recipients, with a success margin of 18 or less developing symptoms compared to 59 in the control group. For AstraZeneca, their interim analysis includes 50 vaccine recipients, with a success margin of 12 or less developing symptoms compared to 19 in the 25 person control group. Pfizer is even smaller in its success requirements. Their initial group includes 32 vaccine recipients, with a success margin of 7 or less developing symptoms compared to 25 in the control group.

The primary analyses are a bit more expanded, but need to be less efficacious for success: about sixty percent.”

It also goes on to say, the aim of vaccine trials is not to prevent severe Covid cases:

“ It appears that all the pharmaceutical companies assume that the vaccine will never prevent infection. Their criteria for approval is the difference in symptoms between an infected control group and an infected vaccine group. They do not measure the difference between infection and noninfection as a primary motivation.”

Waiting on one of these vaccines while throwing our way of life under the bus is a huge mistake in my opinion. We need to learn to live with this for the time being and protect those at risk until more reliable treatment comes on stream.

Kermit.de.frog · 09-10-2020 07:41AM

There has never been a vaccine for any Coronavirus. We are not, as a civilisation, technically advanced enough to do what is being claimed. It's that simple. Some want to believe it and govts are happy to enhance claims to keep up morale. It's not going to happen.

The sad fact of the matter is that the western world made a catastrophic mistake in relation to China and other countries in the region in relation to pathogens. It was as if this was something we could live with over decades or it would always be contained over there. We could have sanctioned and restrained them for every pathogen - we didn't.

We are paying a severe price for decades of incompetence.

09-10-2020 07:56AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There has never been a vaccine for any Coronavirus. We are not, as a civilisation, technically advanced enough to do what is being claimed. It's that simple. Some want to believe it and govts are happy to enhance claims to keep up morale. It's not going to happen.

The sad fact of the matter is that the western world made a catastrophic mistake in relation to China and other countries in the region in relation to pathogens. It was as if this was something we could live with over decades or it would always be contained over there. We could have sanctioned and restrained them for every pathogen - we didn't.

We are paying a severe price for decades of incompetence.

If coronavirus vaccines are available for cats and available for cows, why do you believe they are not possible in humans?

09-10-2020 07:59AM

With numpties like this we don’t really have much of a chance do we?

'A family who were supposed to be isolating were out, calling taxis, shopping, with not even a mask on' - GPs see worrying trends at ground level

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/a-family-who-were-supposed-to-be-isolating-were-out-calling-taxis-shopping-with-not-even-a-mask-on-gps-see-worrying-trends-at-ground-level-39603738.html

is_that_so · 09-10-2020 08:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

With numpties like this we don’t really have much of a chance do we?

'A family who were supposed to be isolating were out, calling taxis, shopping, with not even a mask on' - GPs see worrying trends at ground level

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/a-family-who-were-supposed-to-be-isolating-were-out-calling-taxis-shopping-with-not-even-a-mask-on-gps-see-worrying-trends-at-ground-level-39603738.html

This was always going to be the case and even with high levels of adherence to the guidance you could still expect infections. Shaming people is not going to have much of an effect apart from give people a warm glow of self-righteousness. Public messages 24/7, dull as it is, is where we should be now.

09-10-2020 08:09AM

CruelSummer wrote: »

This Forbes article re vaccines in development is quite concerning.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/09/23/covid-19-vaccine-protocols-reveal-that-trials-are-designed-to-succeed/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Their interim analysis data are based on small numbers and success in primary analysis is just 60%:
“ For Johnson & Johnson, their interim analysis includes 77 vaccine recipients, with a success margin of 18 or less developing symptoms compared to 59 in the control group. For AstraZeneca, their interim analysis includes 50 vaccine recipients, with a success margin of 12 or less developing symptoms compared to 19 in the 25 person control group. Pfizer is even smaller in its success requirements. Their initial group includes 32 vaccine recipients, with a success margin of 7 or less developing symptoms compared to 25 in the control group.

The primary analyses are a bit more expanded, but need to be less efficacious for success: about sixty percent.”

It also goes on to say, the aim of vaccine trials is not to prevent severe Covid cases:

“ It appears that all the pharmaceutical companies assume that the vaccine will never prevent infection. Their criteria for approval is the difference in symptoms between an infected control group and an infected vaccine group. They do not measure the difference between infection and noninfection as a primary motivation.”

Waiting on one of these vaccines while throwing our way of life under the bus is a huge mistake in my opinion. We need to learn to live with this for the time being and protect those at risk until more reliable treatment comes on stream.

That article seems to have been written by an eminent scientist, but also seems to have fundamentally misunderstood the vaccie trial designs, so much so that it needed the below correction

Correction (10/7/20): A former version of the article stated that 53 people received a vaccination for interim analysis in the Moderna trial. The vaccine was in fact given to thousands of people, with 53 being the number of people who must be infected with Covid-19 to run the analysis.

Eg. the trial cant be judged successful for efficacy unless it is confirmed that a certain percentage of those in the trial have been exposed to the virus. Its why they give it to thousands, to ensure they get a number of exposures.

JP Liz V1 · 09-10-2020 08:17AM

HSE broke their record for Covid19 tests yesterday at over 19,500 says Paul Reid on Newstalk breakfast

Thierry12 · 09-10-2020 08:20AM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

HSE broke their record for Covid19 tests yesterday at over 19,500 says Paul Reid on Newstalk breakfast

Lovely

Getting close to 1000 cases a day now

JP Liz V1 · 09-10-2020 08:23AM

https://twitter.com/morningireland/status/1314465268354232322

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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