Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

seamus · 08-10-2020 03:50PM

440Hertz wrote: »

One false negative and the state will be potentially sued to shreds.

I think we may have to have some kind of legal indemnity for an emergency testing system that allows for best efforts in the circumstances.

Nah, that's not really a thing. Margins of error and risks are all built into this. No medical negligence case assumes any system or individual is perfect. Any case is usually won on establishing that what occurred was outside the normal range of risk and/or was due to clear negligence. A patient who doesn't receive the correct treatment due to a false negative usually can't sue the doctor unless they can prove the false negative was the doctor's fault or that any other doctor in the same scenario would have demanded a new test.

08-10-2020 03:51PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Yup im an idiot, zero correlation between 1+ million individuals and their families in close circulation with a highly contagious virus and rising case numbers across Europe (whose schools have all reopened in the last 2 months or so).

Spain reopened their schools around the 7th of September, cases surging since late July,
France returned start of September, August surge. I could go on

It was surging well before schools returned in most places.

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 03:55PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Spain reopened their schools around the 7th of September, cases surging since late July,
France returned start of September, August surge. I could go on

It was surging well before schools returned in most places.

Spain and France surged most definitely due to tourism, both international and domestic. Ireland is very different in terms of the scale of, density of and dependency on tourism.

Spain in particular had no choice but to open due to regions being absolutely dependent on tourism. It’s like aspects of Florida etc.

France may not have been open to international tourists as much as usual, but it has a HUGE domestic tourist industry and half the country took “les grandes vacances”

I watch a lot of French media as I speak French and pretty much all of the early surges seemed to crop up in touristy areas in rural places like camp sites, seaside towns etc etc There were a lot of weird rural outbreaks in the late summer and I suspect those were the seeds of what we are seeing now.

Spain had a huge surge in Madrid which was domestic but it had surges associated with holidays too.

Schools may well be playing a factor but so may the summer holidays and a general relaxation into complacency and business as usual.
It’s human nature that we can only stay on high alert for so long.

There was very mixed compliance with rules in France too and very draconian top down enforcement which was often sporadic. So instead of buy in, you’ve tended to have work around. That’s fairly typical of French policing culture though. It’s always very us & them and the place is full of conspiracy theorists these days, claiming their electricity meter is spying on them.

caveat emptor · 08-10-2020 03:55PM

Sheepdish1 wrote: »

How much did the bail out cost compared to what COVID-19 has cost us to date?

I’m just trying to wrap my head around the huge amount of money that the bailout involved.

I would interested to know approximately how much the bailout was for compared to roughly what covid has cost us. Thank you

You're welcome.

pauldry · 08-10-2020 03:57PM

I thought we were seeing the peak of this but its still going up

figures up 340K worldwide yesterday

Now theres a million every 3 days

This with India going down.

All very cheerful isnt it

08-10-2020 03:59PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Spain and France surged most definitely due to tourism, both international and domestic. Ireland is very different in terms of the scale of, density of and dependency on tourism.

Spain in particular had no choice but to open due to regions being absolutely dependent on tourism. It’s like aspects of Florida etc.

France may not have been open to international tourists as much as usual, but it has a HUGE domestic tourist industry and half the country took “les grandes vacances”

I watch a lot of French media as I speak French and pretty much all of the early surges seemed to crop up in touristy areas in rural places like camp sites, seaside towns etc etc

Spain had a huge surge in Madrid which was domestic but it had surges associated with holidays too.

There was a nice little bubble in travel related cases here in the second half of August, and we as country spent July and August taking "les Grande Vacances"

quokula · 08-10-2020 04:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Spain reopened their schools around the 7th of September, cases surging since late July,
France returned start of September, August surge. I could go on

It was surging well before schools returned in most places.

Most of the surges we've seen aren't surges that were suddenly triggered by one thing, they're just the natural result of a return to exponential growth since the initial lockdowns were eased.

Someone posted a few pages ago about how the numbers in NI jumped dramatically from August to September compared to July to August. In reality the rate was roughly the same at an approx 4x increase per month, but 250 -> 1000 just doesn't sound like as big a jump as 1000 -> 4000. And 4000 -> 16000 is likely coming in October if they don't start taking stronger mitigation measures. I'm using rough rounded numbers there but they're not far off reality.

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 04:02PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There was a nice little bubble in travel related cases here in the second half of August, and we as country spent July and August taking "les Grande Vacances"

Yeah but it’s not on the same scale. We don’t all rush to crowded locations in the same way as we don’t have the climate for it nor the population densities. We normally do our high density holidays in Spain etc.

That’s why we’ve had a later spike in my opinion, but we are just weeks behind.

pauldry · 08-10-2020 04:10PM

Ireland will be over 40,000 cumulative cases by 630pm today.

Sobering:(

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 04:10PM

quokula wrote: »

Most of the surges we've seen aren't surges that were suddenly triggered by one thing, they're just the natural result of a return to exponential growth since the initial lockdowns were eased.

Someone posted a few pages ago about how the numbers in NI jumped dramatically from August to September compared to July to August. In reality the rate was roughly the same at an approx 4x increase per month, but 250 -> 1000 just doesn't sound like as big a jump as 1000 -> 4000. And 4000 -> 16000 is likely coming in October if they don't start taking stronger mitigation measures. I'm using rough rounded numbers there but they're not far off reality.

That’s the thing! We all need basic maths lessons.

Merkel has been driving this kind of discussion extremely well in Germany by literally doing explanations of what exponential growth is, in a very simple and non patronising college lecturer style:

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1311271843664474116?s=21

Full clip, with context:

https://twitter.com/joyce_karam/status/1311363992112128000?s=21

She’s talking to people like grown ups, not like a school principal.

D.Q · 08-10-2020 04:12PM

pauldry wrote: »

Ireland will be over 40,000 cumulative cases by 630pm today.

Sobering:(

Not really.

How is case load sobering?

Deaths are sobering, cases are just cases.

Boggles · 08-10-2020 04:12PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Merkel has been driving this kind of discussion extremely well in Germany by literally doing explanations of what exponential growth is, in a very simple and non patronising college lecturer style:

I prefer Leo.

Screaming uncontrollably like a 17 year girl who was just told her Debs was cancelled.

Jack1985 · 08-10-2020 04:13PM

D.Q wrote: »

Not really.

How is case load sobering?

Deaths are sobering, cases are just cases.

Exactly, plenty of other diseases with much higher figures that are very sobering!

08-10-2020 04:16PM

quokula wrote: »

Most of the surges we've seen aren't surges that were suddenly triggered by one thing, they're just the natural result of a return to exponential growth since the initial lockdowns were eased.

Someone posted a few pages ago about how the numbers in NI jumped dramatically from August to September compared to July to August. In reality the rate was roughly the same at an approx 4x increase per month, but 250 -> 1000 just doesn't sound like as big a jump as 1000 -> 4000. And 4000 -> 16000 is likely coming in October if they don't start taking stronger mitigation measures. I'm using rough rounded numbers there but they're not far off reality.

Exactly, the growth returned, including schools, not because of schools. The growth rate now is the same as it was in August, and the growth rate is a representation of the average number of contacts that each of us have(or each person who has the virus at least). If we have the same growth rate now as August, we have the same number of contacts. So maybe schools have resulted in 1 million kids and teachers having more close contacts, but this hasn't translated into increased growth, meaning either this has been compensated by the other 4 million of us reducing our contacts slightly on Average (holidays finished), or its less transmissible in schools (under 10s maybe), or maybe kids were having jsut as many close contacts in August, when they were on holidays, visiting cousins, cul camps etc.

Either way, the clear, unambiguous data is that the proportion of kids with the virus has not increased relative to before schools returned, and the growth rate has not increased. The conclusion that schools are clearly driving the increase is nothing but conjecture as its not reflected in the data.

pauldry · 08-10-2020 04:19PM

D.Q wrote: »

Not really.

How is case load sobering?

Deaths are sobering, cases are just cases.

Well the more cases go up the more likely the off licences will be closed.

Sobering

CIARAN_BOYLE · 08-10-2020 04:23PM

bazermc wrote: »

I keep on meaning to ask, where are you getting that from an what does it mean i.e. how is it different to actual case numbers which are later in the day

Sometimes people get multiple tests.

For example they go to a public test centre then their condition worsens and they are admitted to hospital and have a second test in the hospital (probably get results quicker too).

That's pure numbers of swabs and positives over a 24 hour period. Not number of cases.

billybonkers · 08-10-2020 04:27PM

Are NPHET meeting today? How likely are further restrcitions tomorrow?

Seamai · 08-10-2020 04:28PM

440Hertz wrote: »

That’s the thing! We all need basic maths lessons.

Merkel has been driving this kind of discussion extremely well in Germany by literally doing explanations of what exponential growth is, in a very simple and non patronising college lecturer style:

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1311271843664474116?s=21

Full clip, with context:

https://twitter.com/joyce_karam/status/1311363992112128000?s=21

She’s talking to people like grown ups, not like a school principal.

She wasn't the other night in my dream which I've only just remembered on seeing that pic, she was sitting next to me at a concert and trying it on with me, Jesus, that's no sleep for me tonight.

Boggles · 08-10-2020 04:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Either way, the clear, unambiguous data is that the proportion of kids with the virus has not increased relative to before schools returned

5-14 year olds

March to August 27th (schools opened) - 549 confirmed cases

August 28th to to October 5th - 804 confirmed cases

We have gone from 3 kids a day in that age bracket testing positive to 21 since the schools opened.

Kermit.de.frog · 08-10-2020 04:31PM

UK reports 17,540 new cases in last 24 hrs and 77 deaths.

Hospital admission have increased to 3,044

Up from 1,995 one week a go.

caveat emptor · 08-10-2020 04:32PM

billybonkers wrote: »

Are NPHET meeting today? How likely are further restrcitions tomorrow?

I've no idea but that won't stop me saying 50 50.
50 50 is helpful we can all understand it.
Oh to be a fly on the wall......

froog · 08-10-2020 04:33PM

12 school related clusters this week.

48 total clusters since schools opened.

47 of those clusters are still active.

9% of all cases in the country in the last 2 weeks are 0-14 years of age.

https://www.rte.ie/news/education/2020/1007/1170104-schools-covid-19/

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 04:34PM

billybonkers wrote: »

Are NPHET meeting today? How likely are further restrcitions tomorrow?

Extremely unlikely. NPHET are in monitoring mode. After Sunday we can expect the government to make the next call, 3 weeks officially but 10 days says Leo!

SEPT 23 1989 · 08-10-2020 04:35PM

923 cases up north

Funsterdelux · 08-10-2020 04:37PM

440Hertz wrote: »

That’s the thing! We all need basic maths lessons.

Merkel has been driving this kind of discussion extremely well in Germany by literally doing explanations of what exponential growth is, in a very simple and non patronising college lecturer style:

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1311271843664474116?s=21

Full clip, with context:

https://twitter.com/joyce_karam/status/131136

She’s talking to people like grown ups, not like a school principal.

Did anyone else read that in their head with a East German accent..?

KrustyUCC · 08-10-2020 04:37PM

billybonkers wrote: »

Are NPHET meeting today? How likely are further restrcitions tomorrow?

very unlikely

kingshankly · 08-10-2020 04:37PM

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

923 cases up north

Got that 20/30 times in the last couple of hours 🙈

08-10-2020 04:37PM

Boggles wrote: »

5-14 year olds

March to August 27th (schools opened) - 549 confirmed cases

August 28th to to October 5th - 804 confirmed cases

Apples and oranges - feck all getting tested up to June

5 to 14 year olds
Aug 19th to Sept 1st - 8.5% of cases
Set 23rd to Oct 6th - 6.65% of cases

hmmm · 08-10-2020 04:38PM

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

923 cases up north

Possibly out of control. Who is in charge in NI?

Having a huge outbreak and an open border is going to hurt the ability for the Republic to control our numbers.

08-10-2020 04:39PM

froog wrote: »

12 school related clusters this week.

48 total clusters since schools opened.

47 of those clusters are still active.

9% of all cases in the country in the last 2 weeks are 0-14 years of age.

https://www.rte.ie/news/education/2020/1007/1170104-schools-covid-19/

21% of all people in the country are 0-14

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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