Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

MerlinSouthDub · 08-10-2020 03:25PM

Blondini wrote: »

I explained that one to you yesterday.

No, you didn't. Not using data anyway. Just your conspiracy theory view that children weren't being tested.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 03:25PM

Gael23 wrote: »

They have to give Level 3 a fair chance or else they will lose whatever people are still with them

I think we need a stark warning to go with all the other platitudes.

MerlinSouthDub · 08-10-2020 03:26PM

Boggles wrote: »

That data also says there is next to near no clusters in pubs, but they are closed.

Do you think the data may be a bit you know shít?

The data on positive tests by age is clear.

quokula · 08-10-2020 03:26PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The data says the highest infection rates are in young adults. It's really not rocket science to see what's causing the surge - socialising in pubs or house parties.

Exactly, the more we lock down non-essential things, the safer schools will be. Infections can only enter a school if a teacher or pupil brings it in after being infected by a friend / parent / sibling / uncle or whoever.

It's possible it will get to a point where the schools have to close, but if we do the right thing elsewhere and get the rate of infection in the community down, then schools will be ok.

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 03:26PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Increased 575% August over July, and 356% September over August

Your right, nothing to worry about

Blondini · 08-10-2020 03:26PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

No, you didn't. Not using data anyway. Just your conspiracy theory view that children weren't being tested.

No one is blinder... as they say.

Good luck.

mloc123 · 08-10-2020 03:27PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The data on positive tests by age is clear.

You are wasting your time... these guys just want their pints... they want pubs open and everything else shut

Benimar · 08-10-2020 03:27PM

bazermc wrote: »

I keep on meaning to ask, where are you getting that from an what does it mean i.e. how is it different to actual case numbers which are later in the day

I (sort of) get them from here. https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

Total positive tests as of today is 44,133 and I keep track of this figure each day.

Yesterday it was 43,379, so there must have been 754 positives in the last 24 hours.

As for the difference, better people than me have tried and failed to work that out!

GazzaL · 08-10-2020 03:29PM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Positivity rate seems to be climbing.

I'd rather positivity than some of the negativity from people on here.

MerlinSouthDub · 08-10-2020 03:29PM

Benimar wrote: »

I (sort of) get them from here. Total positive tests as of today is 44,133 and I keep track of this figure each day.

Yesterday it was 43,379, so there must have been 754 positives in the last 24 hours.

As for the difference, better people than me have tried and failed to work that out!

If you go into the Data and Services section, you can see all the test numbers for the last 200 days. Saves you keeping track of yesterday's total!

08-10-2020 03:29PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Remarkably low death rates up North all the same.

Do they count deaths differently to us?

Probably yes

Radio interview with a woman from HSE early last Thursday or Friday morning about one of the four reported deaths a day or so before who "didn't even have any symptoms" Had me thinking, wtf did that unfortunate person really die from.
Friends parent passed away last March, terminal liver cancer, labeled as Covid. Thing is CSO statistics for March do not list a single death from Covid.

mloc123 · 08-10-2020 03:29PM

quokula wrote: »

Exactly, the more we lock down non-essential things, the safer schools will be. Infections can only enter a school if a teacher or pupil brings it in after being infected by a friend / parent / sibling / uncle or whoever.

Which is what the government have said all along... we are sacrificing other services to keep schools open. All this talk that if shops aren't safe, how can schools be safe miss this point.

GazzaL · 08-10-2020 03:29PM

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Positivity rate seems to be climbing.

I'd rather some positivity than more of the negativity from people on here.

quartz1 · 08-10-2020 03:29PM

Dr David Nabara of the WHO yesterday recognised how important School was for the well-being of kids and how closing schools would have an effect on Childcare . He also said the evidence was young kids usually did not get very sick but they could take it home to older people ...he also said older.kids needed to be taken the same preventative measures as adults . If the Country has to take the economic damage of a level lockdown will Schools not need to be reconsidered to prevent prolonging the economic damage .

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 03:31PM

is_that_so wrote: »

This may be something to do with that new test I heard about although I don't know how you contact trace 100,000 people a day!

Let’s say if we take a typical working week in Ireland is 39 hours - 7.8 hours a day on a 5 day week.

You could probably handle at most 4 traces an hour, 15 mins each. So that’s one tracer handling 31.2 cases per day. So a staff of 3205 people (and spares, time off, etc padding etc : lets make that 4000) working at fairly brisk pace with good IT, could trace 100,000 people a day.

It’s very doable if you’ve access to say a huge raft of civil servants, public servants, volunteers etc

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 03:31PM

323 wrote: »

Probably yes

Radio interview with a woman from HSE early last Thursday or Friday morning about one of the four reported deaths a day or so before who "didn't even have any symptoms" Had me thinking, wtf did that unfortunate person really die from.
Friends parent passed away last March, terminal liver cancer, labeled as Covid. Thing is CSO statistics for March do not list a single death from Covid.

Could have been denotified or not notified until later. They do two counts there, COVID and any underlying symptoms so the cancer would have been recorded anyway.

Sheepdish1 · 08-10-2020 03:33PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Don't forget bail out, bail out, bail out.

That was a great decision 12 years ago that we are only recently over. What's the legacy of that decision. The very people who had to pick up the tab on that borrowed 40 billion by the way (at crazy vampire squid interest rates) have no access to housing and mortgages are most expensive in Europe. I wish we were all so concerned about where will the money come from when we were bailing out bond holders. Plenty of people had their head in the sand then too.

Great idea that one. Nobody gave a **** about who would pay for it as long as they got to stay in their over priced semi d.

The same people moaning in march are moaning now and it hasn't even started.

I think we should let people do what the fvck they want and if you can't afford the resultant health care (short term or long term) then you are on your own.

Net long term result of that won't be increased mortgage rates and no housing it will be a decrease in life expectancy for those most deprived.

I think people can get on board with that as nobody sees themselves in the deprived category.

We are clearly not in it together so why are we pretending?

How much did the bail out cost compared to what COVID-19 has cost us to date?

I’m just trying to wrap my head around the huge amount of money that the bailout involved.

I would interested to know approximately how much the bailout was for compared to roughly what covid has cost us. Thank you

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 03:33PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Let’s say if we take a typical working week in Ireland is 39 hours - 7.8 hours a day on a 5 day week.

You could probably handle at most 4 traces an hour, 15 mins each. So that’s one tracer handling 31.2 cases per day. So a staff of 3205 people (and spares, lets make that 4000) working at fairly brisk pace with good IT, could trace 100,000 people a day.

Yeah, needs a whole lot of people. That would be €20m a day alone for the tests.

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 03:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, needs a whole lot of people. That would be €20m a day alone for the tests.

Yup. It’s not cheap but it is doable.

Also if you could redeploy 4000 ish people who are already on the state’s books or people are willing to volunteer eg retirees etc, you reduce the costs a lot.

Also the jobs could be used for stimulus / holding positions for people who are temporarily laid off. So there are ways around that.

There has to be quite a few people who would be quite happy to do that even a few days a week while laid off. It’s just admin work.

The big challenge is that there are confidentiality and GDPR issues. So you can’t just do it in any old ad hoc way. But at the same time it’s just contact chain tracing.

You could also automate a large element of it into the covid app. Just ask people to do their own trace if they’re diagnosed. Most people could manage that. The less tech savvy could use a tracing service on the phone.

If the app just asked you to provide a list of contacts to the tracers via the app, it would save a fortune and a lot of time. It wouldn’t need to ask anything more than the tracers do and would do.

It could then alert them by text and potentially even keep it all anonymous.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 03:38PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Yup. It’s not cheap but it is doable.

Also if you could redeploy 4000 ish people who are already on the state’s books or people are willing to volunteer eg retirees etc, you reduce the costs a lot.

Also the jobs could be used for stimulus / holding positions for people who are temporarily laid off. So there are ways around that.

Cost aside it would be a very rapid way to say blitz the education system or even some smaller counties. Pooling could also speed it up more. I do think that rapid testing will get more reliable and may even serve as a stopgap to better treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 03:38PM

Donegal Dan Murph wrote: »

I’m an essential worker so not some random clown and I believe the schools should be open but with compulsory PPE for staff and students but also w/ a reintroduced corporal punishment rule for non compliance.

We need to hold firm now, the next 3 weeks are crucial

Wow, As much as i want schools to stay open in a hybrid manner with reduced numbers for safety, this is completely unacceptable

08-10-2020 03:38PM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Your right, nothing to worry about

Just pointing out the data didn't say what you thought it said. Now NI schools did return earlier than ROI school, but because of incubation this would not have had an effect until the second week of September, whereas as the school effect here should have been apparent in the third week of September

Boggles · 08-10-2020 03:39PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Which is what the government have said all along... we are sacrificing other services to keep schools open. All this talk that if shops aren't safe, how can schools be safe miss this point.

That was a core priority.

Probably in reality though, completely aspirational.

We don't know if it is anymore though.

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 03:41PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Cost aside it would be a very rapid way to say blitz the education system or even some smaller counties. I do think that rapid testing will get more reliable and may even serve as a stopgap to better treatments and ultimately a vaccine.

The tech really needs to be at the level of a self administered / locally administered non lab based system that gives you rapid results

That doesn’t seem to exist yet anywhere, at least nothing that’s reliable enough to be useful.

We also need to be careful though not to bankrupt ourselves by gold plating it either. Some of this stuff may well have to be belt and braces. Our legal culture around this doesn’t help. One false negative and the state will be potentially sued to shreds.

I think we may have to have some kind of legal indemnity for an emergency testing system that allows for best efforts in the circumstances.

bennyl10 · 08-10-2020 03:42PM

When is the last time we saw a 4%(ish) positive rate?

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 03:44PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Just pointing out the data didn't say what you thought it said. Now NI schools did return earlier than ROI school, but because of incubation this would not have had an effect until the second week of September, whereas as the school effect here should have been apparent in the third week of September

Yup im an idiot, zero correlation between 1+ million individuals and their families in close circulation with a highly contagious virus and rising case numbers across Ireland as well as Europe (whose schools have all reopened in the last 2 months or so).

odyssey06 · 08-10-2020 03:44PM

323 wrote: »

Probably yes

Radio interview with a woman from HSE early last Thursday or Friday morning about one of the four reported deaths a day or so before who "didn't even have any symptoms" Had me thinking, wtf did that unfortunate person really die from.
Friends parent passed away last March, terminal liver cancer, labeled as Covid. Thing is CSO statistics for March do not list a single death from Covid.

You'll have to provide a link for that claim because when I look at the CSO reports for March it clearly lists deaths for March.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcases/

seamus · 08-10-2020 03:46PM

440Hertz wrote: »

Let’s say if we take a typical working week in Ireland is 39 hours - 7.8 hours a day on a 5 day week.

You could probably handle at most 4 traces an hour, 15 mins each. So that’s one tracer handling 31.2 cases per day. So a staff of 3205 people (and spares, lets make that 4000) working at fairly brisk pace with good IT, could trace 100,000 people a day.

Remember of course that's assuming 100,000 positive tests a day. Every at the worst, you'd have no more than 20,000 a day.

And 4 traces is 4 contacts. Not four cases. If you have 600 cases today with 5 contacts each, then you have 3000 contacts to follow up. You also have to call each case twice. So 600 new cases today equates to 4,200 phone calls in total.

To cover all those, assuming a tracer can make 30 calls a day, needs 140 contact tracers.

New York set itself a target of a minimum of 30 tracers per 100,000 of population. Which would equate to about 1,500 contact tracers in Ireland.

Last I heard we had about 300, with another 250 being trained up this week.

In the nightmare scenario where you had 10,000 new cases in a single day, you're talking about 70,000 phone calls.

Which would require about 2,500 contact tracers.

So it's easy to see how quickly the tracing system can get overwhelmed. We do have a "reserve" capacity of about 1,500 contact tracers in the army and other areas.

440Hertz · 08-10-2020 03:48PM

seamus wrote: »

Remember of course that's assuming 100,000 positive tests a day. Every at the worst, you'd have no more than 20,000 a day.

And 4 traces is 4 contacts. Not four cases. If you have 600 cases today with 5 contacts each, then you have 3000 contacts to follow up. You also have to call each case twice. So 600 new cases today equates to 4,200 phone calls in total.

To cover all those, assuming a tracer can make 30 calls a day, needs 140 contact tracers.

New York set itself a target of a minimum of 30 tracers per 100,000 of population. Which would equate to about 1,500 contact tracers in Ireland.

Last I heard we had about 300, with another 250 being trained up this week.

In the nightmare scenario where you had 10,000 new cases in a single day, you're talking about 70,000 phone calls.

Which would require about 2,500 contact tracers.

So it's easy to see how quickly the tracing system can get overwhelmed. We do have a "reserve" capacity of about 1,500 contact tracers in the army and other areas.

That’s why we should be automating and making it self service as much as possible so it can be scaled without cost!

Most aspects of contact tracing could be done by an app asking questions and asking people to keep their own diaries of contacts for the next few months, if they can.

We can’t really just dump huge costs on the state as we will end up with a mess that just isn’t doable.

This sort of thing absolutely lends itself to being largely and successfully automated.

landofthetree · 08-10-2020 03:50PM

quokula wrote: »

Exactly, the more we lock down non-essential things, the safer schools will be. Infections can only enter a school if a teacher or pupil brings it in after being infected by a friend / parent / sibling / uncle or whoever.

It's possible it will get to a point where the schools have to close, but if we do the right thing elsewhere and get the rate of infection in the community down, then schools will be ok.

Level 4+5 closes stuff like construction sites,barbers,clothes shops etc.

But in all these places you must wear a mask and it has been shown to work.

Vigilant mask wearing might have spared nearly 140 people from catching the coronavirus at a hair salon in Missouri, according to a report published on Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In May, the people interacted with two hair stylists with confirmed coronavirus infections, but none ended up showing symptoms of Covid-19.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/health/coronavirus-hair-salon-masks.amp.html%3f0p19G=6214

It just seems unfair to close down these places and put 400k on the dole yet we cant tackle house parties or students in Galway

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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