Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Boggles · 08-10-2020 09:52AM

Pandemic Denial ramps up as cases do.

It's a very interesting sub plot of the whole thing and is relevant because it is creeping into politics. It will be short lived though.

NPHET meeting again today, the situation has deteriorated further since Sunday so I can't see how any of their recommendations will change, will be interesting to see if a letter will go the Health Ministry this evening and what time Leo will leak it. 9ish for the news and Prime Time?

They made it clear they want daily infection rate as low as possible for December because no one will follow any sort advice around Christmas, even them.

My guess is the government are waiting until we hit 1000 cases a day or the mid term whichever comes first. On the current trajectory they happen around the same time.

Hybrid level 4/5, close the schools for 3 weeks, cut back on health care, but leave as many businesses open as possible.

Plumbthedepths · 08-10-2020 09:52AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

A few elements of a few courses can’t.
But the majority of the majority can.

So you agree with me. Sound.

landofthetree · 08-10-2020 09:52AM

bennyl10 wrote: »

The rest of society will recover, it may not be the same business' but new business will open and it may take time

If the health service goes under, people will die. not just COVID people, multitudes of sick people

The economy being in the same state it is now is not worth sacrificing people.

level 5 would necessitate the bringing back in of supports, but the ECB is giving loans at negative interest rates we would be foolish to not avail of that

people dying due to hospital beds not being available should not be an option to save a few business

Government revenue falls.

Savage austerity.

Ban on recruitment of Doctors and Nurses.

More people die than usual from lack of proper healthcare.

Let's not kid ourselves that lockdown will not cost lives elsewhere. Of course the optics are much better that their deaths won't be announced every day which is all that matters in this kip of a country.

spookwoman · 08-10-2020 09:52AM

Operations report out 20.00 hours last night

In hospital 155 +13

27 in Critical Care +3
15 Ventilated +4

Thierry12 · 08-10-2020 09:53AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Not with something like covid there not, imagine Italy in march, was economy the big concern for them at that time? Or was it the rising number of bodybags

When your under pressure you come up with solutions

We have for years let the 1st tier hospitals buckle every winter and let the 2nd tier run at much lower capacity

We don't use our assets properly, we are not efficient

Its like the M50 analogy

That road is jammers every day and national roads empty

Solution?

We dont ask enough questions here

seamus · 08-10-2020 09:55AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Not with something like covid there not, imagine Italy in march, was economy the big concern for them at that time? Or was it the rising number of bodybags

We're very far away from an "Italy in March" scenario.
That would require somewhere between 2,000 and 5,000 new cases a day in Ireland.

That's not even on NPHET's worst-case scenario models.

We can't use hysterical projections to drive public policy.

Thierry12 · 08-10-2020 09:57AM

s1ippy wrote: »

This winter there's a highly contagious and fatal new virus around as well as the usual stuff.

Its great we have an abundance of flu vaccine supply to combat that other ilness with the same symptoms

Oh wait

We forgot to order

This is going to be some disaster

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:57AM

Russman wrote: »

That’s just it, we’re not going to live our lives as we were used to, for the next while. That might be 9 months, it might be 12, who knows. But wanting it to be different won’t make it happen. This is quite literally a world changing event and people are still thinking like it’s January 2020.

The last bit of that is the problem but it is better to try to address that at Level 3 than an automatic leap to a Level 5 solution. If it doesn't work we still have two more levels we can move to fairly quickly. If it fails at level 5 to work quickly you'll get your 12 months wish. I really think you are downplaying the social and personal effects of such a scenario.

Charles Babbage · 08-10-2020 09:57AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

Looks like it.

Level 5 will come in, cases will fall, Level 5 will be relaxed, cases will increase...rinse, repeat.

Yes, but with each cycle the testing and treatments have improved and in 6 months there is every chance of a vaccine. Now the first vaccine won't wipe out Covid, but it will improve things substantially.

Boggles · 08-10-2020 09:58AM

seamus wrote: »

That would require somewhere between 2,000 and 5,000 new cases a day in Ireland.

That's not even on NPHET's worst-case scenario models.

They have only publicly released modelling until 7th November.

The Reproductive number is now estimated at 1.2. If we fail to reduce viral transmission nationwide immediately, we could see 1,100-1,500 cases per day and 300-450 people in hospital by November 7th.

You don't have to be Nolan to predict what happens by the end of November.

Zebra3 · 08-10-2020 09:58AM

landofthetree wrote: »

Government revenue falls.

Savage austerity.

Ban on recruitment of Doctors and Nurses.

More people die than usual from lack of proper healthcare.

Let's not kid ourselves that lockdown will not cost lives elsewhere. Of course the optics are much better that their deaths won't be announced every day which is all that matters in this kip of a country.

Ah come on!!!

We're all in this together!!!

Apart from the plan to borrow, borrow, borrow, and make future generations pay for our mess.

Oh and a pay rise for the public service as huge number of people lose their jobs.

But, we're all in this together!!!

bennyl10 · 08-10-2020 09:58AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The same thing thats happens every Winter??

Only it will be even worse This year as there is a new virus which hospitalises people

It can’t cope normally, this could be a level above that again

And then Great the pubs will reopen, but How many people have died?

No one wants level 4/5, but it simply may be the only way to save lives here.

Level 3 has not really worked in Dublin, we’ve seen a small levelling off, but the per100k figure is still much too high

Nationwide that won’t work without crippling the health system

Looney1 · 08-10-2020 09:59AM

159 in hospital

Gruffalux · 08-10-2020 10:00AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Or until the money runs out.....

1 billion is 1000 millions
1 trilllion is 1000 billions.

The worlds richest people increased their wealth between April and July 2020 by 27% to over 10 trillion.

10,000,000,000,000 = ten trillion. A ten percent Pandemic tax on these people - who do not really need to be washing their gold leaf inlays with the tears of virgin slaves - would be 1 trillion. It might help a little bit to alleviate some difficulties for some people and it is only a bit off the top of their Summer betting windfalls. 50% tax would help even more. The money never runs out. It always runs UP.

seamus · 08-10-2020 10:00AM

Russman wrote: »

This exactly.
How many people is someone ok with dying so they can pay their bills. It’s that simple.

It is. And it's something we've all been doing for our whole lives. There's a reason we don't give our health service blank cheques. Why people are allowed to own private cars. Why companies are allowed to produce fast food. Why pubs exist.

Because deep down, we all make a judgement call that "The societal benefit for allowing this activity outweighs the number of deaths it will cause".

We rarely have to face it, but it's there. The day-to-day freedoms we all take for granted, come with a price tag of other peoples' lives.

This is not any different.

Mwengwe · 08-10-2020 10:00AM

seamus wrote: »

We're very far away from an "Italy in March" scenario.
That would require somewhere between 2,000 and 5,000 new cases a day in Ireland.

That's not even on NPHET's worst-case scenario models.

We can't use hysterical projections to drive public policy.

That's not all that far away if you assume exponential growth

weldoninhio · 08-10-2020 10:00AM

Mwengwe wrote: »

You don't know what you're talking about.

The stats don't lie. If you are under 80 without any chronic illness, you've pretty much no chance of dying from Covid. The most common symptom currently is zero symptoms, thats pretty mild in my book.

Jinglejangle69 · 08-10-2020 10:00AM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Ah come on!!!

We're all in this together!!!

Apart from the plan to borrow, borrow, borrow, and make future generations pay for our mess.

Oh and a pay rise for the public service as huge number of people lose their jobs.

But, we're all in this together!!!

Yep public sector workers at home on full pay while others on 201 a week.

But were all in this together!!!

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 10:01AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

When your under pressure you come up with solutions

We have for years let the 1st tier hospitals buckle every winter and let the 2nd tier run at much lower capacity

We don't use our assets properly, we are not efficient

Its like the M50 analogy

That road is jammers every day and national roads empty

Solution?

We dont ask enough questions here

We only have a certain capacity regardless of ingenious ideas or solutions, generations of underfunding the health care sector is why we are where we are. It has really come down to putting lives first or businesses first (which i also understand effects lives in a different way). There is no inventive super solution for this in the short term, its a once in a 100 year pandemic that we where and are not prepared for, our only hope to get out of lockdown bingo is a vaccine.

Plumbthedepths · 08-10-2020 10:02AM

Gruffalux wrote: »

1 billion is 1000 millions
1 trilllion is 1000 billions.

The worlds richest people increased their wealth between April and July 2020 by 27% to over 10 trillion.

10,000,000,000,000 = ten trillion. A ten percent Pandemic tax on these people - who do not really need to be washing their gold leaf inlays with the tears of virgin slaves - would be 1 trillion. It might help a little bit to alleviate some difficulties for some people and it is only a bit off the top of their Summer betting windfalls. 50% tax would help even more. The money never runs out. It always runs UP.

Nice rant but it doesn't provide Paschal with funds.

Icyseanfitz · 08-10-2020 10:02AM

seamus wrote: »

We're very far away from an "Italy in March" scenario.
That would require somewhere between 2,000 and 5,000 new cases a day in Ireland.

That's not even on NPHET's worst-case scenario models.

We can't use hysterical projections to drive public policy.

Didn't nphet say we could have 2300 cases a day lately?

Eod100 · 08-10-2020 10:02AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

I can't get my head around people here cheerleading lenel 5. Have they no understanding of economics.

We go level 5 then everyone takes a hit.

That should include the public sector too.

The economy is already taking a hit with rolling restrictions. Of course it would be worse but if it was for less time we could try and actually suppress virus long term. Because we're not living with covid as it stands .

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 10:03AM

Mwengwe wrote: »

That's not all that far away if you assume exponential growth

And if you assume exponential growth will continue.

odyssey06 · 08-10-2020 10:03AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

The stats don't lie. If you are under 80 without any chronic illness, you've pretty much no chance of dying from Covid. The most common symptom currently is zero symptoms, thats pretty mild in my book.

Tell that to the hundreds of people under 60 (never mind 80) without underlying conditions in the UK alone who have died from the virus.

Tell that to the thousands of people here under 80 without underlying conditions who required hospitalisation to overcome this virus.

A disease which had 90% people with mild symptoms and 10% people dead or in ICU would be a 'mild disease' according to your metric, which highlights what a fundamentally wrong metric it is.

weldoninhio · 08-10-2020 10:04AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

You need to look at the hospitalisation stats not just the fatalities.
If someone has been hospitalised, they don't have a mild case.

There have been hundreds of deaths in the UK of people under 60 without chronic underlying conditions. 5% of all coronavirus deaths had no underlying condition. 23% of ICU admissions have no underlying condition.
Those are just ICU admissions.

If you look at hospitalisations the median age will drop further.
In Ireland the median age for hospitalisations was 62.

Where are the stats for people hospitalised DUE to Covid, rather that being hospitalised and testing positive for Covid while in there??

We live in Ireland.

Again, show me the stats for those hospitalised DUE to Covid rather than being hospitalised and testing positive.

Gruffalux · 08-10-2020 10:04AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Nice rant but it doesn't provide Paschal with funds.

It cannot be a rant. I was happily eating chocolate while typing it.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 10:05AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Didn't nphet say we could have 2300 cases a day lately?

1100 or so in the 1st week in November, if and only if the rate of transmission doesn't reduce.

Sweet.Science · 08-10-2020 10:05AM

Thank god the vaccines for this look like they will be rolled out before xmas . So much sh!te talk

Thierry12 · 08-10-2020 10:06AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Thank god the vaccines for this look like they will be rolled out before xmas . So much sh!te talk

You believe that?

We cant even roll out flu vaccines

TexasTornado · 08-10-2020 10:07AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Thank god the vaccines for this look like they will be rolled out before xmas . So much sh!te talk

There will be no safe widely available vaccine until next summer at the earliest.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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