Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

08-10-2020 08:23AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

True but a rising tide lifts all boats.

Except if some insist on drilling holes in the bottom

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 08:24AM

The Oort Cloud wrote: »

So-called flu season does not have a particualr date to implement iteslf on to the population, it can come early or at any time in the nature of climates.

They tend to consider it as the period from October to April.

UrbanFret · 08-10-2020 08:24AM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Big questions over the plan now, level two clearly doesn't work so does that mean we'll be stuck in level 3 to 4 until a vaccine comes out. I think the government need to revise their 3 week old framework already.

I feel the Gardai checkpoints will slow the rate of growth somewhat but how long can they man those checkpoints we're throwing money and gardai overtime at a problem just to face it later down the road, not a good use of resources, and when they end it will be a free for all again.

Covid is mostly spreading in homes, in workplaces and schools and having a checkpoint won't really stop the spread there.

The nationwide level 3 will also slow the rate and even reduce the rate in some counties but with schools and work places still opened it won't have an effect on the major condenses cities especially if we're not dealing with the source of the spread.

It looks like we need a border patrol of some sort, not easy to implement but we won't reduce numbers in the border counties without it.

We'll probably see rises now for a week or 2 the after that it depends on how the restrictions are working and how many people are abiding by them. I think that level 5 scare has shocked a lot of people but how long will they be able to follow all the rules before getting fatigued.

Border patrol indeed. Won't work. Lots of Cavan people work in Fermanagh and vice versa. How about people cop the fk on and do what's asked of them like keeping apart, wear their mask, wash their hands etc. Also shields and folk who wear their mask under their nose or chin need reefing.

lawrencesummers · 08-10-2020 08:27AM

Good to see the Gardai out in force making people’s morning commute even more difficult. The people on the road before 9 in the morning are not the ones causing problems and spreading the virus.

Talk about a waste of time, a stupid allocation of resources and ultimately a waste of money in what is effectively a PR exercise.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 08:37AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Good to see the Gardai out in force making people’s morning commute even more difficult. The people on the road before 9 in the morning are not the ones causing problems and spreading the virus.

Talk about a waste of time, a stupid allocation of resources and ultimately a waste of money in what is effectively a PR exercise.

It is PR, blunt, but an important one to discourage people who don't need to be on the move from travelling. I'm not that enamoured of the some of the crowd rousing slogans but the message now is crystal clear. Do this or Level 4 and 5 will be brought in and it's not an idle threat.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 08:43AM

UrbanFret wrote: »

Border patrol indeed. Won't work. Lots of Cavan people work in Fermanagh and vice versa. How about people cop the fk on and do what's asked of them like keeping apart, wear their mask, wash their hands etc. Also shields and folk who wear their mask under their nose or chin need reefing.

Make sure you pick the right fight on this and that is not masks, it's the other stuff that people are no longer doing. If people are doing stupid things with masks stay away from them, they are not your problem.

Eod100 · 08-10-2020 08:43AM

Wonder does this mean that level 4 or 5 could be used in coming weeks if 3 not seen to be effective enough quick enough? https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1314082598189240322?s=19

drunkmonkey · 08-10-2020 08:44AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It is PR, blunt, but an important one to discourage people who don't need to be on the move from travelling. I'm not that enamoured of the some of the crowd rousing slogans but the message now is crystal clear. Do this or Level 4 and 5 will be brought in and it's not an idle threat.

And what then, where do we go from there, close the country indefinitely. There's no way out of this, especially with the flaws of pcr testing.

bush · 08-10-2020 08:49AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Wonder does this mean that level 4 or 5 could be used in coming weeks if 3 not seen to be effective enough quick enough? https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1314082598189240322?s=19

I think level 4 is coming no matter what

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 08:51AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

And what then, where do we go from there, close the country indefinitely. There's no way out of this, especially with the flaws of pcr testing.

That's what the plan is there for. Numbers need to stabilise and decline. Levels 4 & 5 are available but I don't think they want to go there if it can be avoided. I expect some efforts to tweak as much as possible before we go up a level. What PCR flaws?

08-10-2020 08:59AM

Not a good 24 hours for the trends

Nermal · 08-10-2020 09:01AM

auspicious wrote: »

Among 292 respondents, 94% (274) reported experiencing one or more symptoms at the time of testing; 35% of these symptomatic respondents reported not having returned to their usual state of health by the date of the interview (median = 16 days from testing date), including 26% among those aged 18–34 years, 32% among those aged 35–49 years, and 47% among those aged ≥50 years. Among respondents reporting cough, fatigue, or shortness of breath at the time of testing, 43%, 35%, and 29%, respectively, continued to experience these symptoms at the time of the interview. These findings indicate that COVID-19 can result in prolonged illness even among persons with milder outpatient illness, including young adults.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6930e1.htm

Main problem with the CDC paper: it's not random, it's a selection of people who were not ill enough to be admitted to hospital, but were ill enough that they felt they had to go get a test.

When one tests randomly, 75-80% of people with a positive test have no symptoms at all (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/08/more-than-80-positive-cases-in-covid-study-had-no-core-symptoms)

So immediately, all of those CDC percentages should be cut by 80%, to reflect the totality of infections.

When restated: 7% of people infected may still have a cough, fatigue or shortness of breath two weeks after testing positive. Is that really so surprising or worrying? Two weeks isn't a long time.

You're trying to suggest that large fractions of people have the mysterious 'brain fog' and CFS-type issues many months after the disease, but that's just not true. I'm not saying they don't exist at all, but they're going to be rare.

Other problems: over 30% of the people they tried to survey couldn't be contacted. Why? No doubt some of them were back at work, symptom free!

Thomas.. · 08-10-2020 09:05AM

Why are 3rd level students sharing accomodation when their courses are online

Eod100 · 08-10-2020 09:09AM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1314115413882568705?s=19

bennyl10 · 08-10-2020 09:11AM

Eod100 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1314115413882568705?s=19

so dublin is 'levelling out' sure
but that is far rom sufficient in what we need to see happen

Russman · 08-10-2020 09:11AM

Kiwi in IE wrote: »

So what are we going to do about that? Not eat out, travel, play/watch sport, go to concerts, cinema, theatre, go shopping, have house parties, have friends/relatives from more than 2 different households over, travel abroad, go on holiday locally etc, etc etc until there is a vaccine? Even if a vaccine takes several years? Even if there is no vaccine at all? What is going to happen to all the people who work and own businesses in the above sectors? What is going to happen without the revenue collected from those businesses and people? What is going to happen to our lives, relationships and mental health? People need to wake up very, very quickly and stop giving the government the message that this is what we want with this ridiculous outrage about house parties, sports team celebrating etc.

Yes, exactly.
Covid doesn’t care that we’re inconvenienced, that we’re unemployed, that we’re unhappy, that we’ve had enough of it and could it all go away please. Whether we like it or not we’re in for a period of planned/voluntary lockdowns followed by relaxations of measures and more surges, until vaccines roll out. Alternatively we let it rip and have to shut down anyway when ICUs fill up and the front line workers are all sick but it’ll be more haphazard.
People need to grasp this, unpalatable as it is. We need to try make the best fist of it that we can, within what’s realistic.

Mwengwe · 08-10-2020 09:13AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Wonder does this mean that level 4 or 5 could be used in coming weeks if 3 not seen to be effective enough quick enough? https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1314082598189240322?s=19

level 5 is inevitable.

Plumbthedepths · 08-10-2020 09:13AM

Thomas.. wrote: »

Why are 3rd level students sharing accomodation when their courses are online

They are not all online. Some courses require certain classes to be physically held on campus. My son is in Limerick and has to attend 3 days a week and he stays on campus sharing with two others.

Gruffalux · 08-10-2020 09:14AM

Kiwi in IE wrote: »

So what are we going to do about that? Not eat out, travel, play/watch sport, go to concerts, cinema, theatre, go shopping, have house parties, have friends/relatives from more than 2 different households over, travel abroad, go on holiday locally etc, etc etc until there is a vaccine? Even if a vaccine takes several years? Even if there is no vaccine at all? What is going to happen to all the people who work and own businesses in the above sectors? What is going to happen without the revenue collected from those businesses and people? What is going to happen to our lives, relationships and mental health? People need to wake up very, very quickly and stop giving the government the message that this is what we want with this ridiculous outrage about house parties, sports team celebrating etc.

Manaus in Brazil might help you find some answers. So far it is calculated 44 - 66% of people there have had it and 1 in every 350 people who got it died. (Not including in that the 10% that is the least percentage studies are coming up with re long covid limitations.)

People were calling it a 'sentinel' case re herd immunity on 22nd September. Let it rip. Eventually people stop dying and the grave diggers get a break.
By 29th September the Mayor of Manaus was asking for reinstatement of restrictions as case numbers began to increase again challenging herd immunity ideas.

We will have to wait and see what happens over a longer term to know if the case numbers continue and if deaths increase again.

Extrapolating to Ireland if we had let it rip like Manaus and say 55% had gotten infected in wave 1, that would be 2,750,000. Deaths of those at 1 per 350 would be 7850 dead here so far. Note the Manaus figures are based on a population where 6% are over 60 - we have 13.5% over 65, a bigger percentage over 60. So we would be more vulnerable than Manaus. Even if half that many died it would still be about 4000, which really puts an end to the stupid ''it's the flu'' inanity.

That is wave 1. Manaus is casting doubt over the ability of a big infection rate in wave 1 to stop other waves later. I dunno. Let it rip - let it R.I.P. - looks a bit nasty to me.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/22/1008709/brazil-manaus-covid-coronavirus-herd-immunity-pandemic/

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil-manaus/in-brazils-amazon-a-covid-19-resurgence-dashes-herd-immunity-hopes-idUKKBN26I0I8

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:14AM

bennyl10 wrote: »

so dublin is 'levelling out' sure
but that is far rom sufficient in what we need to see happen

Level 3 is probably going to work very slowly but might do the job. Higher levels could address it faster but bring with them a lot of other problems outside public health. There are no easy choices here.

Plumbthedepths · 08-10-2020 09:15AM

Mwengwe wrote: »

level 5 is inevitable.

Worked well the first time didn't it.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:16AM

Mwengwe wrote: »

level 5 is inevitable.

It doesn't have to be, the current data, like March, is a projection of an unmitigated increase.

petes · 08-10-2020 09:16AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Better sooner than later why?

So we open back up quicker then close again??

What's the benefit of opening and closing quicker.

Surely it's all the same in the long run.

And your suggestion is?

Thierry12 · 08-10-2020 09:16AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If there is any influenza about it will be captured within the statistics of confirmed cases. Most diagnoses of it are clinical as the course tends to have a characteristically abrupt onset with a pretty severely (not usually severe in terms of needing hospital) symptomatic course, and GPs report what they think are probable cases. These times symptomatic people get tested for Covid to help eliminate that, although the way Influenza incapacitates from the outset I can't see how people can get themselves to a test centre if they live alone or are stricken down together in a household. There will be more requirement for testing to come to households.

As regards the supply the manufacturers didn't ramp it up this year, either because of inability to do so or lack of foresight. Regarding the latter my own pharmacist yesterday strangely said to me that "the demand couldn't have been anticipated, would could have known so many would want it". That's the sort of thinking I suspect to stretch way up into administrations.

Your spinning so much i'm dizzy.

We don't test for flu and governments screwed up again with flu vaccine supply

How in gods name did they not think we needed to vaccinate for flu this year?

Hire get clowns, get a circus

Humberto Salazar · 08-10-2020 09:16AM

is_that_so wrote: »

It is PR, blunt, but an important one to discourage people who don't need to be on the move from travelling. I'm not that enamoured of the some of the crowd rousing slogans but the message now is crystal clear. Do this or Level 4 and 5 will be brought in and it's not an idle threat.

Then bring it in. Bring Level 5 and stop messing about. This road strangulation tactic is useless and self defeating. Just pull the trigger and lock it down. I don't want that but drip feeding is worse.

suicide_circus · 08-10-2020 09:16AM

Mwengwe wrote: »

level 5 is inevitable.

Looks like it.

Level 5 will come in, cases will fall, Level 5 will be relaxed, cases will increase...rinse, repeat.

bush · 08-10-2020 09:17AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Worked well the first time didn't it.

Its still inevitable I think, you can see them gearing up for it :mad:

bennyl10 · 08-10-2020 09:17AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Level 3 is probably going to work very slowly but might do the job. Higher levels could address it faster but bring with them a lot of other problems outside public health. There are no easy choices here.

but if level 3 taking time, results in our hospitals becoming clogged than it hasnt done the job.

if going to a high level now, means the econonmy takes a short hit, but we can keep the health service 'functioning' (as well as it ever does) than surely that is the better call.

Jinglejangle69 · 08-10-2020 09:19AM

petes wrote: »

And your suggestion is?

Strict laws even jail for people who break the rules.

No messing about.

Pour whatever money and resources needed into enforcement.

is_that_so · 08-10-2020 09:20AM

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Then bring it in. Bring Level 5 and stop messing about. This road strangulation tactic is useless and self defeating. Just pull the trigger and lock it down. I don't want that but drip feeding is worse.

Not that simple at all. Issues with PUP, loan holidays, a massive increase in the funding requirements along with the psychological effect on an already tired country. There's also the question of how long, nobody on the public health side of things will stand over a promise of 4 weeks and it could be 6 or even 10 weeks.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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