Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

TexasTornado · 04-10-2020 07:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The cavalry is on the horizon apparently says Luke O'Neill.

Lol Luke O'Neill the guy who told us on the late late show the virus was nothing to really worry about a few months ago. An absolute charlatan.

thomas 123 · 04-10-2020 07:30PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

There could be an argument, if one or more vaccines show good results this month or next, for another 6 weeks or so with strong restrictions aiming to prevent as much disease as possible and then a gradual reopening similar to the summer with the hope to begin a vaccine roll out during the reopening period. A lot depends on what we learn about vaccine efficacy in the next two months.

We still have a very long way to go. Vaccines are a year off once developed(and that’s if they are).

The supply chain to get them out doesn’t even really exist as the most promising ones require very low temps for transport and storage.

04-10-2020 07:31PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's a virus, what do you mean it can't spread on its own? It doesn't just disappear when people stop socialising. Very strange way of thinking.

The virus was disappearing in Ireland, the R number was as low as 0.4. A lot of counties went 4 weeks without a case. Had we continued and introduced quarantine for inward travel to the Island it would have been eliminated on the Island. The political hurdle was too hard to overcome but it is not impossible to eliminate, this can be seen on a smaller scale in a place like the Isle of Man.

GooglePlus · 04-10-2020 07:31PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

If that happens just wave goodbye to the hospitality sector

The hospitality sector dies when people stop enjoying hospitality.

As many businesses go under as a result of all this, there'll always be someone to take their place with money to invest when things settle.

It would take a serious shift in our nature to put an end to the hospitality sector.

odyssey06 · 04-10-2020 07:32PM

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

Let those who are in the vulnerable age bracket, underlying health conditions take it easy for a few months, and let everyone else get on with life. It's the only quick way out of this.

What about the carers to the vulnerable, multi-generational households, the vulnerable are not just those of a certain age. And those of advanced age are typically those in need of the most outside help.
So what you advocate is not a strategy, it's a slogan.
What does it mean in practical terms?

440Hertz · 04-10-2020 07:32PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It wants to find new hosts with no immunity.

It’s not that clever as it evolved within probably a bat population and wouldn’t have that level of sophistication in humans. It’s just a numbers game. It produces vast amounts of infective material using your lungs to get it into the air.

The only evolutionary issue I was would see is it will be the most virulent strains that get maximum reproduction opportunities. So perhaps the ones that make you cough more or that maximise production in lung cells will spread more.

These things have very unstable RNA and can mutate and try all sorts of stuff just given the sheer volume of individual viruses and the shortness of their lifecycle.

04-10-2020 07:32PM

TexasTornado wrote: »

Lol Luke O'Neill the guy who told us on the late late show the virus was nothing to really worry about a few months ago. An absolute charlatan.

Hardly a few months ago. I think your being economical with the truth there lad. Did anyone of us think in January that 2020 would be like this in October.

GooglePlus · 04-10-2020 07:33PM

GazzaL wrote: »

Michael O'Leary was right. We'd all be better off getting the **** out of the country for a few weeks to get away from NPHET's catastrophic mismanagement. They have made a complete balls of testing and contact tracing.

That's exactly what Michael O'Leary wants you to think. He has his money to look after whereas NPHET have public health in mind.

OscarMIlde · 04-10-2020 07:33PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

So let's sit on boards and blame everyone except ourselves.

I'm adhering to the restrictions. I obviously still have contacts as I have to work, buy groceries, and use public transport. I minimise the risk I cause doing these things by wearing a mask in work, shops, and public transport, even though I find it uncomfortable. If I meet someone for a visit, I ensure my next friend/relative visit will be at least a week away.

But plenty of people are not bothering to wear masks in indoor spaces such as buses or are meeting multiple close contacts within days of each other. Those people are increasing chains of transmissions, and increasing the risk of others catching the virus. And they are largely responsible for the uptick in cases and any further restrictions designed to limit that spread.

04-10-2020 07:33PM

440Hertz wrote: »

It’s not that clever as it evolved within probably a bat population and wouldn’t have that level of sophistication in humans. It’s just a numbers game. It produces vast amounts of infective material using your lungs to get it into the air.

The only evolutionary issue I was would see is it will be the most virulent strains that get maximum reproduction opportunities. So perhaps the ones that make you cough more or that maximise production in lung cells will spread more.

These things have very unstable RNA and can mutate and try all sorts of stuff just given the sheer volume of individual viruses and the shortness of their lifecycle.

Interesting. You seem to know your stuff.

Gruffalux · 04-10-2020 07:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's a virus, what do you mean it can't spread on its own? It doesn't just disappear when people stop socialising. Very strange way of thinking.

It does, though. If it does not meet hosts a virus quite quickly dies, rather than replicates.

04-10-2020 07:35PM

thomas 123 wrote: »

We still have a very long way to go. Vaccines are a year off once developed(and that’s if they are).

The supply chain to get them out doesn’t even really exist as the most promising ones require very low temps for transport and storage.

That is true, although Astra Zeneca does not need to be frozen. Some of the leaks from UK plans seem to suggest they already have a mass rollout plan in place. They also will have their own manufacturing capacity. A lot depends on the efficacy results, markets and manufacturing have a habit of responding to demand where the money is available.

FintanMcluskey · 04-10-2020 07:35PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

As many businesses go under as a result of all this, there'll always be someone to take their place with money to invest when things settle.
.

Bizzare theory.

04-10-2020 07:37PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Bizzare theory.

I think it's called capitalism.

screamer · 04-10-2020 07:37PM

Gael23 wrote: »

When is the next NPHET meeting?

They met today, next cabinet briefing is Tuesday so stand by

GooglePlus · 04-10-2020 07:38PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Bizzare theory.

That's how our economy works, you can call Adam Smith out, not me.

440Hertz · 04-10-2020 07:38PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Interesting. You seem to know your stuff.

It’s just evolution. Viruses are extremely small, short lived and simple & have massive numbers. That means they can evolve very rapidly. You throw a billion things at a wall. See what sticks. The stuff that sticks reproduces and throws another billion things at the wall that now stick better and that cycle keeps going on and on.

With a virus or a small microorganism, the speed they can do that is enormous. What would take us millennia they can achieve in weeks due to the sheer volume of random options, simplicity and speed of reproduction.

odyssey06 · 04-10-2020 07:40PM

440Hertz wrote: »

It’s just evolution. Viruses are extremely small, short lived and simple & have massive numbers. That means they can evolve very rapidly. You throw a billion things at a wall. See what sticks. The stuff that sticks reproduces and throws another billion things at the wall that now stick better and that cycle keeps going on and on.
With a virus or a small microorganism, the speed they can do that is enormous. What would take us millennia they can achieve in weeks due to the sheer volume of random options, simplicity and speed of reproduction.

There's the theory that distancing, masks etc mean either less viral load OR have led to a strain that still transmit despite our measures, but is less severe.
Hence more mild and asymptomatic cases.
Just theories at this stage.

Zebra3 · 04-10-2020 07:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I think it's called capitalism.

It's called day dreaming.

Still shops boarded up on my local main street from 2008-09.

JPCN1 · 04-10-2020 07:41PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

The hospitality sector dies when people stop enjoying hospitality.

As many businesses go under as a result of all this, there'll always be someone to take their place with money to invest when things settle.

It would take a serious shift in our nature to put an end to the hospitality sector.

It dies when people are not allowed to enjoy hospitality.

The fact that there may be people to take the place of businesses that have failed will be of scant comfort to those people who have lost their livelihoods and the further reaching consequences for them.

polesheep · 04-10-2020 07:41PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

What about the carers to the vulnerable, multi-generational households, the vulnerable are not just those of a certain age. And those of advanced age are typically those in need of the most outside help.
So what you advocate is not a strategy, it's a slogan.
What does it mean in practical terms?

TBH I think yours is the sloganeering. We keep hearing that you cannot restrict the vulnerable only as their is a spider's web of contacts. But that only matters if you insist on perfection. We can't have perfection no matter what strategy we employ. We certainly can restrict the vulnerable whilst maintaining the best protection that we can around them.

Boggles · 04-10-2020 07:41PM

GazzaL wrote: »

Michael O'Leary was right. We'd all be better off getting the **** out of the country for a few weeks to get away from NPHET's catastrophic mismanagement. They have made a complete balls of testing and contact tracing.

I'm reasonably optimistic it will be reasonably short-lived - remember we're coming into the spring-summer period in Europe. That itself will help to limit the spread of a flu-like virus

- Michael O'Leary March 2020.

Real Donald Trump · 04-10-2020 07:42PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

What about the carers to the vulnerable, multi-generational households, the vulnerable are not just those of a certain age. And those of advanced age are typically those in need of the most outside help.
So what you advocate is not a strategy, it's a slogan.
What does it mean in practical terms?

Prioritize testing for those working with vulnerable people. Good hand hygiene practice, temp checks, ppe etc

Minimize contacts as much as you can.

Lockdowns dont work and will never work with asymptomatic widespread.

stephenjmcd · 04-10-2020 07:44PM

JPCN1 wrote: »

It dies when people are not allowed to enjoy hospitality.

The fact that there may be people to take the place of businesses that have failed will be of scant comfort to those people who have lost their livelihoods and the further reaching consequences for them.

I'd hazard a guess that their own income doesn't depend on a hosptiality job so they'd be alright regardless. Once it doesn't affect me attitude.

Whereas in my own family 2 rely on hosptiality jobs and going back onto social welfare could see them lose a house as it won't cover the mortgage.

Gruffalux · 04-10-2020 07:44PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

There's the theory that distancing, masks etc mean either less viral load OR have led to a strain that still transmit despite our measures, but is less severe.
Hence more mild and asymptomatic cases.
Just theories at this stage.

I hear this theory. Is it possible to be proven correct or incorrect? I would like to know if it is true or false. Would big efforts not be thrown at this if there was an inkling the virus had significantly changed? I don't know - maybe such a thing cannot be judged under a microscope. Maybe it is not visible and it needs epidemiological data over a period of time. I don't know.

440Hertz · 04-10-2020 07:45PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

There's the theory that distancing, masks etc mean either less viral load OR have led to a strain that still transmit despite our measures, but is less severe.
Hence more mild and asymptomatic cases.
Just theories at this stage.

Hard to predict until we start seeing evidence of what it’s doing. The virus could go lots of ways. It doesn’t have an aim to make us sick. It just wants to reproduce. Out being sick or killed by it just collateral damage.

The ideal situation for any virus is where it lives almost symbiotically with a host and you don’t even notice it. It gets on with being a virus. You get on with being a human.

04-10-2020 07:45PM

Stheno wrote: »

So level three seems to be having an effect in Dublin, why then move the rest of the country from 2-4?

One day does not make a trend. Trajectory for island of Ireland is upwards. Dramatically in some counties and regions.

04-10-2020 07:45PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

The hospitality sector dies when people stop enjoying hospitality.

As many businesses go under as a result of all this, there'll always be someone to take their place with money to invest when things settle.

It would take a serious shift in our nature to put an end to the hospitality sector.

Just on this, I'd love to see a plan in place to basically allow for any business that fails as a result of the pandemic restrictions to be given the opportunity to get significant state support and finance at some point in the future should the owners wish to try again once all of this settles. Essentially provide them with small business welfare and debt relief. Not sure how this would fit in with EU law but the recovery plan has to be more complex than the blunt austerity instruments we saw during the financial crisis.

GooglePlus · 04-10-2020 07:46PM

JPCN1 wrote: »

It dies when people are not allowed to enjoy hospitality.

The fact that there may be people to take the place of businesses that have failed will be of scant comfort to those people who have lost their livelihoods and the further reaching consequences for them.

That's the joys of running a business during a global pandemic. Business comes and goes, life moves on. Everyone has their story but nobody is waiting around long enough to listen, that's life.

TexasTornado · 04-10-2020 07:46PM

Boggles wrote: »

- Michael O'Leary March 2020.

Doctor O'Leary strikes again

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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