Where are the deaths coming from?

29-09-2020 04:24PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I know its there, you know its there because your front line saving lives and Im sure you get issued with medical publication's etc.

But one has to look for it.

I havent heard any advice to loose weight from NPHET however, just mask up and other nonsense.

Can't believe I am in agreement with you but yes, losing weight would be one of the best moves you could do to prevent a serious covid infection. There is an interesting parallel in the UK between the prevalence of obesity and T2DM in the south east asian community in Manchester. Hence why the restrictions are so severe there.

tobefrank321 · 29-09-2020 04:27PM

Augeo wrote: »

total rubbish................ the increase in infection rates is caused by folk not following the guidelines........ without them the infection rate would be higher... if folk don't wear masks then me wearing one won't protect me will it. You are proposing do whatever you like for all. A significant proportion of the population are th1ck as sh1t and have no regard for others.

where are you calling for this BTW? Just here? LOL

I'm an essential worker. I've been beavering away throughout and haven't done any WFH. Following all restrictions & advice though.

There are two certainties about Covid 19.

1. Everyone will not follow the rules. There is always a 10% in society who don't believe the rules apply to them, whether they are golfers on a golfing weekend or students having house parties. Unless we bring in Chinese style curfews and dragging people off to detention who don't follow the rules, its always going to be the same.

2. We will never get to zero covid and crushing the curve is not a valid or sustainable aim.

suicide_circus · 29-09-2020 04:34PM

suicide_circus wrote: »

We know this disease is primarily fatal to the elderly and infirm.

What exactly is the argument against focusing on isolating/cocooning this group and letting the young and able bodied keep the show on the road?

Anyone?

tobefrank321 · 29-09-2020 04:36PM

Genghis wrote: »

For me, neither of the key stats we need are reliable - the % of population that has been infected, and the % of infected who have died (and by extension the % of population who have died).

To be accurate, any infection rate would need to include asymptomatic cases, which are not being uncovered and are difficult to test for post infection. The death rate can only be established once the infection rate is known (and ideally with standard definition re: counting co-existing conditions, etc).

In relation to the stats that have actually been released continuously and on a consistent basis over the past 6 months, the death rate is far flatter now than in what we call 'wave 1'. I think that is because in wave 1 the disease had spread through the older population (via nursing homes), resulting in higher mortality rates - now, its is running through younger people the death rate is far lower. I suspect also the asymptomatic rate is also higher now as young people are also more likely to be asymptomatic.

The government / media narrative is to leverage the higher daily count to heighten fears / implement lockdowns. They never really have to explain why death rates, ICU and bed occupancy are lower this time round (even if they are steadily rising, they are rising more slowly).

They are even able to equate the death rate from wave 1 with wave 2 and then suggest that younger people may be at the same risk of death as the elderly people were from wave 1 - even though the death rates have yet to show that actually happening.

I think if real data points could be established - e.g. between infection rate and death rate across age groups, we could perhaps come up with overall better coping mechanisms - e.g. risk based controls for a general population (sensible precautions, but normal life) and for at-risk population (70+, underlying conditions), etc. Maybe a 5-level risk chart for the individual based on these factors instead of a 5 level lockdown table for wide geographic areas.

Don't expect even an attempt at accurate figures from NPHET. They are still banging the drum that anyone of any age can die from this. While technically true, the chances of a young healthy person dying are miniscule - ie higher chance of dying in a road accident.

The vast majority of middle aged people who died had chronic underlying conditions such as chronic obesity, chronic heart disease or chronic diabetes. This is not your undiagnosed underlying condition, its your struggling to get out of bed in the morning chronic conditions.

And the same applied to the elderly who died, very weak and frail, already on deaths door for the most part.

There are of course a small number of exceptions and RTE and NPHET are keen to ram those small number of exceptions down our throats at every opportunity, ignoring the tens of thousands who had little more than flu symptoms and in many cases no symptoms.

Its possible for NPHET to predict who will get very sick or not from this and shield them accordingly.

Zebra3 · 29-09-2020 04:48PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

It's overblown in Europe I would say, but other parts of the world are suffering greatly. Excess deaths in Peru are 75,000 - 0.25% of the country's population, that is in just 5 months, that's not overblown, that's literally approaching spanish flu level of excess death considering the time frame.Ecuador not too much better. However Peru appears to be the worst case scenario worldwide in every sense, economy in absolute ruin due to the strictest and longest lockdown in the world, and yet they have the most deaths worldwide too. An absolute mess

Done a fair bit of travelling around Peru.

In Lima, there is a big divide between the haves and the have nots. It's a city with chronic air pollution. The public transport is abysmal.

Outside Lima there is still a lot of native Americans who sadly may be more susceptible to something like covid if history is anything to go by.

There would also be the collapse of the tourist industry and I doubt the social net is very good.

FintanMcluskey · 29-09-2020 04:58PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Can't believe I am in agreement with you but yes, losing weight would be one of the best moves you could do to prevent a serious covid infection. There is an interesting parallel in the UK between the prevalence of obesity and T2DM in the south east asian community in Manchester. Hence why the restrictions are so severe there.

So its needs to be made known, loose weight to combat covid. I havent heard it said.

Give us the facts.

Start a campaign. Operation bunker bulky

Harry Palmr · 29-09-2020 05:10PM

Fat is a killer.

Its kills regardless of Coved 19 and yet a very large % of the population is still significantly overweight so pointing it out as a contributory factor is ultimately not going to make much difference. Fat people remain fat regardless of what they do in the majority of cases. At best they get into a rollercoaster of losing and regaining weight which is probably no aid to better health and might even be more of a danger in some respects.

Vitamins is another aspect which is not talked about much - the effect of Vitamin D particularly.

risteard7 · 29-09-2020 05:23PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1310879755990970368

Harry Palmr · 29-09-2020 05:58PM

That's only news if you've been asleep since March.

Andrewf20 · 29-09-2020 05:59PM

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8774141/Coronavirus-UK-Lockdown-kill-75-000-thats-OFFICIAL-projection.html

Good to see a view of the potential drawbacks of lockdown. My gut feeling says that by the end of the year the tide of public opinion will turn and the concern of covid will subside to a large degree.

da_miser · 29-09-2020 06:07PM

1 death today, bit of a over reaction this Covid fear and lockdown, more farmers probably have died from falling into a slurry pit today

risteard7 · 29-09-2020 06:08PM

da_miser wrote: »

1 death today, bit of a over reaction this Covid fear and lockdown, more farmers probably have died from falling into a slurry pit today

That's awful but true! I shouldn't laugh

risteard7 · 29-09-2020 06:14PM

da_miser wrote: »

1 death today, bit of a over reaction this Covid fear and lockdown, more farmers probably have died from falling into a slurry pit today

The death could be a 108 year old with half a kidney. If it's a healthy person with no underlying condition I'll eat my hat

suicide_circus · 29-09-2020 06:21PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

That's only news if you've been asleep since March.

True but it means we have no real grasp of what the mortality rate actually is

nthclare · 29-09-2020 06:22PM

I suppose if I was a fearful person and absorbed the collective fear of covid I'd have a fear of it.
Also if I was very social, had a wife working in the health or education service and had kids in school.
My fear of covid would be amplified.

But as someone who has a handful of close friends and probably 10 close aquaintenses.
And my jobs in the woods and parks out of the way, so I rarely am in touch with anyone in a close proximity.

I go by the suggested guidelines and that's all I can do, if I catch it its my own responsibility.

BUT I can empathise with the fear, it would be easy for me to laugh and humble brag about it not being too dangerous.

Luckily for me I'm a lone wolf but, I do see how people are petrified and their lives are not the same anymore.

I wish none of this sh1t ever happened but sadly the psyche of the population is not getting better...

CalamariFritti · 30-09-2020 12:59AM

suicide_circus wrote: »

True but it means we have no real grasp of what the mortality rate actually is

Thats the whole problem. We're making very big decisions based on incomplete information. Knowing very well it is incomplete information.

And to make matters worse, as we gather better information we chose to ignore it and rather reiterate the old stuff ad nauseam.

And since even little Johnny can see now that something is a bit off we talk about how Mary who is only 35 had it in May and is still feeling very fatigued.

Why, I dont know.

monara · 30-09-2020 03:41PM

Geuze wrote: »

28% of deaths = age 65-79
65% of deaths = aged over 80

7% under age 65

These figures suggest that total lockdowns are unnecessary, that the high risk groups can easily isolate as they are generally retired and that the working and preworking population are very low risk.

da_miser · 01-10-2020 01:02PM

Covid19 practically gone from the home page of independent.ie , even the media know the game is up, must no longer be generating clicks so they are moving on.

end of the road · 01-10-2020 04:55PM

suicide_circus wrote: »

We know this disease is primarily fatal to the elderly and infirm.

What exactly is the argument against focusing on isolating/cocooning this group and letting the young and able bodied keep the show on the road?

because ultimately it doesn't protect the vulnerable as community transmission remains high.
so people at high risk are essentially locked up in their homes and are still at the highest possible risk.
whereas with what we did, people even if they were high risk, could at least get out some bit.

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I know its there, you know its there because your front line saving lives and Im sure you get issued with medical publication's etc.

But one has to look for it.

I havent heard any advice to loose weight from NPHET however, just mask up and other nonsense.

because the people in that situation already know the information and it would take them time to achieve it.
whereas masking up and following the rest of the guidelines takes no time what soever.

da_miser wrote: »

1 death today, bit of a over reaction this Covid fear and lockdown, more farmers probably have died from falling into a slurry pit today

nope wrong, no over reaction at all but vital and necessary public health measures.
deaths being very low is testament to those measures.

da_miser wrote: »

Covid19 practically gone from the home page of independent.ie , even the media know the game is up, must no longer be generating clicks so they are moving on.

the media have been reporting all sorts throughout covid.
as important as reporting on covid is there were other things going on.

circadian · 01-10-2020 05:34PM

Ah EOTR get outta here with your rational thinking.

FintanMcluskey · 01-10-2020 08:34PM

circadian wrote: »

Ah EOTR get outta here with your rational thinking.

What you actually mean is EOTR get outta here echoing my sentiment

ShineOn7 · 03-10-2020 08:01PM

Stats Queen Laura on Reddit Ireland has dug into the data and posted the ages of the mortalaties in Ireland in September

No government data exists of those who passed with underlying conditions

Worrisome to see 3 people aged from 45-54 passed away from it in Ireland in September, considering we know more about this thing now compared to March

It's pretty tricky to post a table insert, so here's the thread

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/j4i8ng/covid_august_september_deaths/

mcburns07 · 03-10-2020 08:27PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Stats Queen Laura on Reddit Ireland has dug into the data and posted the ages of the mortalaties in Ireland in September

No government data exists of those who passed with underlying conditions

Worrisome to see 3 people aged from 45-54 passed away from it in Ireland in September, considering we know more about this thing now compared to March

It's pretty tricky to post a table insert, so here's the thread

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/j4i8ng/covid_august_september_deaths/

Isn't the former pretty important to give context to the latter....?

ShineOn7 · 03-10-2020 08:33PM

mcburns07 wrote: »

Isn't the former pretty important to give context to the latter....?

Of course

But the government aren't giving that data, so what can we do?

amadangomor · 03-10-2020 08:49PM

da_miser wrote: »

Covid19 practically gone from the home page of independent.ie , even the media know the game is up, must no longer be generating clicks so they are moving on.

Cough,cough!

combat14 · 03-10-2020 09:10PM

it will be back on the front page again soon enough.. 1339 cases on the island today at 0.5% - 3.5% mortality rate that's probably 7 to 47 potential deaths ..

bb1234567 · 03-10-2020 09:13PM

combat14 wrote: »

it will be back on the front page again soon enough.. 1339 cases on the island today at 0.5% - 3.5% mortality rate that's probably 7 to 47 potential deaths ..

Youre about to get a good hiding

combat14 · 03-10-2020 09:28PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Youre about to get a good hiding

typically covid deaths come with a 4-6 week lag .. if we dont do something in the next 4-5 weeks we will unfortunately see the real fruits of our lack of effort just in time for xmas

and it is so unnecessary really we almost had it bet at about 10 cases per day during the summer before the schools reopened a month ago

suicide_circus · 03-10-2020 11:03PM

The way deaths are reported, the vast majority of people are under the impression that these are deaths that occurred in the last 24 hours since yyesterday's report.

3xh · 03-10-2020 11:08PM

suicide_circus wrote: »

The way deaths are reported, the vast majority of people are under the impression that these are deaths that occurred in the last 24 hours since yyesterday's report.

Exactly.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

Where are the deaths coming from?

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