Marius34 wrote: » 1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers. You can find many reasons why it has no impact, but it's just a believes. 2) Population is growing even excluding migration. I can equally say that we have now higher number of teenagers than in 2011, and big portion of them will be leaving their parents home after highschool. There is no much point to look at this, its enough to check if naturally population is growing or going down.
schmittel wrote: » Source?
PropQueries wrote: » I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.
PropQueries wrote: » Not in the house buying demographic. Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016: 0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus) 35 - 64 Years: +143,932 65 - 85+ Years: +102,174
Marius34 wrote: » 1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers...........
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?
Cyrus wrote: » well what do you define as the house buying demographic? average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.
Hubertj wrote: » Not going to waste my time going back to copy and paste but there were specific statements around google and what they do or don’t do in Ireland that were incorrect. It was only when the poster was pulled up that it became an “opinion”.
Marius34 wrote: » When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.
Augeo wrote: » No restaurateurs or publicans were thinking of buying?
Paddigol wrote: » He looks fairly seasoned to me. I'm not looking to start an internet debate over who is more seasoned than who. If I wanted 100% uninformed opinion on the property market I could ask anyone of my social circle - we all have views, just most are based on little other than newspaper headlines, internal prejudices, fears and hopes. I was just looking to gauge where people who have a specific (albeit not necessarily professional) interest in the property market, and who have followed the debate on this thread over the past 6 months, think the market is heading in the next year. In March in appeared that there were a lot of people stridently of the view that we were heading for immediate and sharp drops in prices. A few people disagreed but their reasons were often dismissed. We haven't experienced the predicted drop, and I'm just wondering how people's views have shifted in the intervening period (if at all).
Cyrus wrote: » in the context of this thread and quality of posting, i would suggest that he is.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Thats anecdotal figures suggest something differenthttps://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-under-living-with-parents-4981426-Feb2020/
thefridge2006 wrote: » I disagree, just another one that shares your views.
lalababa wrote: » I find the rental market for house shares in Cork City very strange. For the last 10+ years when they were like hens teeth to find around start of college, maybe 30 places on Daft. Now there's like 280, and yet you have people asking last year's prices and in some cases more! Fair enough some are a bit cheaper than normal, but the overall picture is very weird.
Marius34 wrote: » Apart from tight supplies side reasons, some of other fundamental reasons for demands: Big increase in household savings. Population growth. (you may think otherwise, but it's not the fact) WFH - which means there is more needs of Residential space (like office room, etc). While it may affect negatively Dublin City Center, and other expensive Dublin areas, it may increase price for other areas.
fliball123 wrote: » and I would hazard a guess more people in their 30s will be buying usually and I may be generalizing but in your 20s your more caught up having fun and a social life as apposed to saving and grinding for a mortgage
MacronvFrugals wrote: » I think more are thinking f that being caught in the rental market, many of my friends (23-28) have started getting the deposit together and some have bought.
JimmyVik wrote: » And probably very few 0 - 30 year olds buying houses either
Cyrus wrote: » the stock of good quality homes rurally isnt great, and people that are seeking to move out of cities will have a big wish list of what they want if they are moving out. A vacant house in a ghost estate isnt going to cut the mustard. for someone who professes not to have an opinion one way or the other you come down on large price decreases 100% of the time.
Paddigol wrote: » In March in appeared that there were a lot of people stridently of the view that we were heading for immediate and sharp drops in prices. A few people disagreed but their reasons were often dismissed. We haven't experienced the predicted drop, and I'm just wondering how people's views have shifted in the intervening period (if at all).
schmittel wrote: » I get that nobody knows whats going to happen and I'm no expert but even to a layman it seems plausible that higher property prices in Dublin are function of rental yield and demand: i.e scarcity of properties to rent pushes rents up, which makes rental yields more attractive to investors and owner occupiers as mortgages are cheaper than rents. Hence demand for property rises, and prices rise. It would follow that if rents fall, prices will fall too. The most likely consequence of the coronavirus is that rents will fall because: a) the arse will fall out the airbnb market - bookings have fallen of a cliff, and a lack of tourists for at least the next three months will see most of these properties offered for longer term lets = increased rental supply. b) in the unlikely event that supply and demand does not force the hand of most of the airbnb landlords, whatever flavour of government we have after the dust settles will clamp down on the airbnb rules. c) Increased supply of properties to rent will coincide with some level of decreased demand due to departing foreign casual workers and students etc. In the short term those who have left are unlikely to be replaced with a fresh influx. This increased supply is likely to come online during and immediately after the lockdown, leading to a flood of availability of rental properties, leading to a flood of headlines about falling rents and the impact this might have on house prices. The flood of headlines and news stories will lead to the following: Cash rich investors who might otherwise have bought this year chasing a 6% or whatever yield will wait and see if the prices fall to the level that offers their target yield - decreased demand. Investors who are not so cash rich, paying mortgages and worried about further falls, will try and get out of the market sooner rather than later - increased supply of stock for sale. Renters who had planned to buy this year will weigh up cheaper rents vs possibility of further falls and decide to wait and see - decreased fresh demand. Sellers will hold out for the price they think their property is worth, listings will linger with incremental small price decreases. Each decrease will reinforce the idea the potential buyers belief that it is better to wait. The only properties that go sale agreed will be from forced sellers who have to sell due to their circumstances. These will be heavily discounted, appearing on the PPR thus putting further downward pressure on the live asking prices. In the short term property prices will inevitably go down. I'll reiterate I am no expert but all of the above seems likely, the only question is how long it lasts and by how much prices drop before they bounce again as they surely will.
thefridge2006 wrote: » Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now? Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.
Cyrus wrote: » sorry i must be mistaken, everyone wants to move out of dublin to live in a 3bed semi in an estate then is it?
MacronvFrugals wrote: » The poorly done roof really plays on my OCD
thefridge2006 wrote: » only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:
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