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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #5702
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    Oh the prices are still crazy no doubt! But at least they’re dropping. People were willing to pay the mad prices last year there

    I'd believe that many of the smaller developers are holding out for the budget to see if there's anything in it to keep prices steady. If there's not, I would predict many will start following Glenveagh's lead and start dropping their advertised prices very significantly just to get their money back at least, never mind a profit.

    Even if there is, it will be a stop-gap measure. If they did increase the help-to-buy to €85k as the developers are lobbying for, that measure would be removed within two years (due to budget constraints) and the prices would drop anyway. Will potential buyers realise this and hold out? Some obviously will want/ need to still buy but I would reckon professional investors would be very wary of such incentives.

    Would be good for first time buyers if investors did show less interest though.


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    #5703
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I'd believe that many of the smaller developers are holding out for the budget to see if there's anything in it to keep prices steady. If there's not, I would predict many will start following Glenveagh's lead and start dropping their advertised prices very significantly just to get their money back at least, never mind a profit.

    Even if there is, it will be a stop-gap measure. If they did increase the help-to-buy to €85k as the developers are lobbying for, that measure would be removed within two years (due to budget constraints) and the prices would drop anyway. Will potential buyers realise this and hold out? Some obviously will want/ need to still buy but I would reckon professional investors would be very wary of such incentives.

    Would be good for first time buyers if investors did show less interest though.

    They already got an additional 10k in the fillip that was given to first time buyers- if they imagine there are more goodies coming on the way, they're not going to be happy.

    At the moment we are spending money like there is no tomorrow- because we can- but there is already an end-date on borrow and spend- when the Commission will re-assert budget rules on member states. Keep in mind- we're paying between 8 and 9 billion on servicing debt per annum- and thats at ultra low interest rates. If/when rates rise- its going to hurt badly.

    If developers think there is something in the budget for them- they have another thing coming.


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    #5704
    Rossvet
    Registered Users Posts: 48 ✭Rossvet


    Glenveagh in Kilcock bumped up 3 bed prices by €10k following the introduction of the enhanced HTB (help the builder) scheme.


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    #5705
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    They already got an additional 10k in the fillip that was given to first time buyers- if they imagine there are more goodies coming on the way, they're not going to be happy.

    At the moment we are spending money like there is no tomorrow- because we can- but there is already an end-date on borrow and spend- when the Commission will re-assert budget rules on member states. Keep in mind- we're paying between 8 and 9 billion on servicing debt per annum- and thats at ultra low interest rates. If/when rates rise- its going to hurt badly.

    If developers think there is something in the budget for them- they have another thing coming.

    This will be one of the most interesting budget in many years. But I wouldn't second guess what they might do. Well I actually would :)

    Remember, one of the many acts by Michael Noonan to get the market moving last time was to basically ban bedsits. Basically he threw the bottom 1% of the population under the proverbial bus in "their" interest.

    But, many of them have now been refurbished and are coming back into the market in their throves at exactly the wrong time (for investors).

    But as you say, budget constraints etc. and any measures would most likely be very short term.


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    #5706
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Reading between the lines, there is a good chance they will call them back if they will be slugged more tax, which they should be. This country offers a low corporate tax rate as there is a belief the employment generated is worth the discount. If the Multinationals stop holding up their end of the deal, even the Irish government might be stirred to do something.

    I'm not too sure on that argument. Google already employs as many people across europe as in Ireland (admittedly spread across many EU countries).


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    #5707
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    This thread is fast becoming a forum on taxation


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    #5708
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    schmittel wrote: »
    There’s been a lot of chat about it recently, but in the context of house prices the future of our 12.5% rate and how it applies to MNCs is significant.

    Worst case scenario some Eu directive outlaws it and they upsticks and leave 10s of thousands jobless. That won’t help house prices.

    Certainly a relevant discussion in my opinion.


    My hole...it has been within that context. Set up another thread about the subject. This is about house prices. I certainly dont need context.


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    #5709
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    schmittel wrote: »
    I suspect none of it, as all parties concerned have bigger issues on their mind.

    But it is certainly relevant on the day the EU appeal a court ruling saying our tax arrangements are in order.

    And often in this thread long term considerations are discussed that might impact the value of a new build housing estate, like future planning permissions in the area or long term plans for public transport upgrAdes.

    Or we often discuss the need to build 30k houses a year for the next decade with impunity.

    Equally it seems to be an acceptable comment that prices will not fall in the short term because pharma and tech buyers are going gangbusters.

    If I was a buyer in 2020 entering into a 30 year mortgage all these long term factors would be relevant to me.

    But I sense you are saying it is irrelevant?

    Why dont we discuss the presidential election or new supreme court judge? These are relevant in a very tangential way to the Irish property market.

    Let it be a complete free for all.


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    #5710
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    To bring it back to 2020, last month no less...

    Banking and Payments federation say that last month’s mortgages represent highest share ever of FTBs.
    The Banking and Payments Federation reports that 3,875 mortgages were taken out last month, 2,259 of them by people buying their first home.

    Canary in a coal mine?
    ”I suppose demand is mostly on the first-time buyers because for second and subsequent buyers, there are other factors affecting them.”

    i.e they’re not panic buying.


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    #5711
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    schmittel wrote: »
    They’re tangential indeed.

    But only an utter fool would suggest Ireland’s corporate tax rate and the jobs it supports was tangential to the Irish property market.

    Though some might say the thread is a free for all for utter fools.

    I don't want to read page after page about Apples effective rate of tax.


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    #5712
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Graham wrote: »
    There should definitely be a thread to discuss the long-term implications of taxation on the Irish property market.

    I'll see if I can split out some of the recent posts.....

    Could you make it a Medium/Long term thread in general rather than just taxation?

    So we can discuss macroeconomics, domestic and global trends affecting Irish property, generally and those arising from covid, demographic changes etc etc.

    All of these factors seem to be a bit frowned upon here, but are actually pretty relevant to the property market.


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    #5713
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    schmittel wrote: »
    Could you make it a Medium/Long term thread in general rather than just taxation?

    So we can discuss macroeconomics, domestic and global trends affecting Irish property, generally and those arising from covid, demographic changes etc etc.

    All of these factors seem to be a bit frowned upon here, but are actually pretty relevant to the property market.


    Bet nobody contributes to this new thread after about a week.


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    #5714
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Bet nobody contributes to this new thread after about a week.

    Quite possibly. Which is why personally I think these things are more suited to this thread which is a general property market thread, albeit one labelled 2020, but it seems we cannot discuss them here.


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    #5715
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    schmittel wrote: »
    Quite possibly. Which is why personally I think these things are more suited to this thread which is a general property market thread, albeit one labelled 2020, but it seems we cannot discuss them here.

    Endless self indulgence about Apple with loads of commentators trying to be clever cats spoils the thread.
    Give me neutral guy every time.


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    #5716
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,798 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Endless self indulgence about Apple with loads of commentators trying to be clever cats spoils the thread.
    Give me neutral guy every time.

    I missed the self indulgence about Apple, but I'd agree Apple's tax affairs alone will not make a thread. Which is why I asked for it to be broadened.

    I think we're in agreement here.


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    #5717
    alias no.9
    Registered Users Posts: 6,266 ✭✭✭alias no.9


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Remember, one of the many acts by Michael Noonan to get the market moving last time was to basically ban bedsits. Basically he threw the bottom 1% of the population under the proverbial bus in "their" interest.

    Banning bedsits without a plan for the tenants to access affordable alternative accommodation was a huge factor in our recent housing shortage but it was the FF/Green coalition who changed the regulations with a 4 year notice period.


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    #5718
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Ok, with AirBnB effectively gone (reported at c.5,000 houses and apartments in Co. Dublin pre-covid) and the demand for student accommodation must also be well down.

    Why haven't rents/prices of properties in Dublin and other major cities in Ireland dropped yet? But, it has been a short period of time.

    Landlords won't dip below their established rents until they have absolutely no choice because it affects what they can charge in future, they're holding out in the face of that reality as long as possible.

    A big factor, additionally, is that up until literally today students were still being told they would be required to attend part of their courses in person. It's likely deposits and rent have already changed hands for the first month at least in a lot of cases. 1-2 months time could be a cold shower for that particular sector, after a summer of no AirBnB's and starting a winter of no students.


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    #5719
    Balluba
    Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭Balluba


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Endless self indulgence about Apple with loads of commentators trying to be clever cats spoils the thread.
    Give me neutral guy every time.

    Yes bring back neutral guy


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    #5720
    OwlsZat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Rents are not falling because that will have implications for their ability to rise again.

    So rents will remain static but watch vacancy rates soar.

    That's all fine while the Government force mortgage holidays. Obviously, its completely against free market economics and erodes bank profits at a time the banks are struggling and cutting jobs. Theres also a problem where lots receiving the holidays were already previously in long term arrears.


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    #5721
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭Browney7


    schmittel wrote: »
    To bring it back to 2020, last month no less...

    Banking and Payments federation say that last month’s mortgages represent highest share ever of FTBs.



    Canary in a coal mine?



    i.e they’re not panic buying.

    I briefly heard this on the radio that FTBs made up a large portion of the August sales. My first thoughts were the "dumb" money so to speak is all that's left and the smart money is sitting on the sidelines.


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    #5722
    Browney7
    Registered Users Posts: 3,099 ✭✭✭Browney7


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    Landlords won't dip below their established rents until they have absolutely no choice because it affects what they can charge in future, they're holding out in the face of that reality as long as possible.

    A big factor, additionally, is that up until literally today students were still being told they would be required to attend part of their courses in person. It's likely deposits and rent have already changed hands for the first month at least in a lot of cases. 1-2 months time could be a cold shower for that particular sector, after a summer of no AirBnB's and starting a winter of no students.

    The rents are an interesting one, a newly launched development in D15 launched 1, 2 and 3 beds at prices of 1750, 2250 and 2450. By the end of the week the 2 beds advertised rate dropped to 2025. These are advertised rates of course so unknown what these will actually go for in the end


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    #5723
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    This downturn is beautiful. The last suckers are coming in.


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    #5724
    Smouse156
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    Landlords won't dip below their established rents until they have absolutely no choice because it affects what they can charge in future, they're holding out in the face of that reality as long as possible.

    A big factor, additionally, is that up until literally today students were still being told they would be required to attend part of their courses in person. It's likely deposits and rent have already changed hands for the first month at least in a lot of cases. 1-2 months time could be a cold shower for that particular sector, after a summer of no AirBnB's and starting a winter of no students.

    Well those that don’t drop will get zero for a long time to come. Even a short while at zero is worse than dropping the rent long term. Unless they are looking to sell, it’s complete stupidity to have properties vacant since March. They have lost way more than they would have over the next 5 years if they are looking to generate cash.

    It is kinda like the people in 2008 wouldn’t accept that property was going to fall, holding out for the 2007 price and they haven’t seen the 2007 price to date!


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    #5725
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    One lockdown after another coming. Don't know whats going on with the 3rd level sector but between that and zero tourism prices won't hold firm for very long in the rental sector.


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    #5726
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    The Belly wrote: »
    One lockdown after another coming. Don't know whats going on with the 3rd level sector but between that and zero tourism prices won't hold firm for very long in the rental sector.

    It really is getting to be quite beautiful.


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    #5727
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    Pelezico wrote: »
    It really is getting to be quite beautiful.

    Don't know about beautiful but it's not going to be pretty.


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    #5728
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Browney7 wrote: »
    I briefly heard this on the radio that FTBs made up a large portion of the August sales. My first thoughts were the "dumb" money so to speak is all that's left and the smart money is sitting on the sidelines.

    That should be Mortgage approvals, I don't think there is information on Mortgage drawdowns for August.


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    #5729
    PommieBast
    Registered Users Posts: 2,585 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But I do agree with you that it's not a discussion until that date: REMEMBER - 6p.m. on the 13th October will be very very interesting here and as sad as my life appears to be, I'm actually looking forward to seeing and debating the discussion on here... :)
    Are they going to have anti-riot barriers like they put up in 2013 and 2014? :D


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    #5730
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    PommieBast wrote: »
    Are they going to have anti-riot barriers like they put up in 2013 and 2014? :D

    If we are talking about the budget it will be kicking the can down the road a lot of nothing and talk of investments in different sectors. Property wise if they want to save a major fall expect some incentives to get cash out of savings and into property. CGT breaks etc.


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    #5731
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    Some posts split to

    Medium & Long Term Property Market Chat


This discussion has been closed.
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