Share Picks 2020

DilD · 24-09-2020 1:30pm

RIGOLO wrote: »

Good point. I will allow it
but remember most vaccines are into late Pahse 2 early Phase 3 , test results are dropping each month, so to some degree we are moving out of the 'forward looking' phase and into the 'what is happening' .
Some bio stocks are being held down by shorts cos they made the wrong bet when they were all at the starting gate.

Personally on my BIO COVID plays, Im also basing some of my choice on the underlying platform and the pipeline outside of Covid .

Yes Bio is not for faint hearted , if I have a 33:33:33 win:breakeven:loss ration on bio picks Id be content as the wins tend to be multiples .

PATIENCE .. PATIENCE is the key to the door.

Biotech definitely not for the faint of heart. Just don't put too large a portion of your account in any one biotech :eek:

Don't get me wrong, I've traded a few Bio's over the last few months but have always been short term trades, would never hold a Biotech longterm. MRNA for example, took it for 120% gain in less than 5 weeks before it came down almost 50%. Risk first!

Shedite27 · 24-09-2020 2:10pm

mollser wrote: »

Peleton I've been keeping an eye on since Feb, as it's a model I'm close to but just don't understand the financials. At $28 I thought it was rediculously overvalued. Now at $96, market cap $27bn.

That is absolutely nuts, but what would I know, for a company with one product and also a very easily replicated model with tonnes of competition.

Kilboor wrote: »

I don't understand Peloton as a company. So they sell a proprietary stationary bike and then a subscription service to cycle exercises and races is it ?

Is that their entire gig?

Been in it since $20, I think it's here to stay. There's probably thesis' written about it, but for me saying they have "one thing" is similar to saying all Apple do is iPhone. Their customers are so into it now it's a bit of a cult.

It's a gym replacement rather than competing with another bike, it's the online classes that are selling the product. You know how much a spinning class in New York or San Francisco costs? $34 a pop - addd more if you want to rent the cycling shoes. The average user of a Peloton does through 24 classes a month. It's not that expensive when you run the numbers. I won't be buying one, but if 3 classes a month in your gym costs $400 - it's easy to see why you'd get yourself a bike and subscription.

GoldFour4 · 24-09-2020 2:53pm

I'm not holding Peloton but I do see its attractiveness. There's potential there for a social side to the existing offering too and I'm not sure there is potential for the data from all those workouts also to develop other offerings in terms of wellness.

Nemeses2050 · 24-09-2020 3:28pm

It seems people are cashing out their SPAC holdings

tobottherobot · 24-09-2020 5:24pm

voluntary wrote: »

Btw, t's time to move away from US stocks to Europe.

Agree... I sold nearly all of my US shares early this week. I might wait a few months and see how things pan out with Covid before picking more up in Europe.. .

voluntary · 24-09-2020 5:59pm

Yeah, I think it's time to hold emotions for a while. My bet is that the worse if ahead of us and deaths will be on a raise with a mixed Flu-Covid season. November, maybe December could prove a bloadshed.

Keep some cash at hand to be ready when the blood is running in the streets.

RIGOLO · 24-09-2020 6:54pm

RIGOLO wrote: »

NYCTL (£4) - Covid testing play , ridden this thru its peaks , expecting major RNS in the coming weeks, as it moves to a mid-cap company , on many big pharma people takeover radar.

Meant to add ODX (76p) to that list yesterday. Its volatile, jumped 8% today but ones always at the mercy of the MMs.
Theres a number of UK based Covid Testing plays, ODX and NYCT are mine.
NYCT are working on a multi infection kit, WINTERPLEX , one test will identfy both Covid and Influenza to simplify testing.
At some point Boris and Operation Moonshot has to cause one of these players to pop.

breadmonster · 24-09-2020 8:19pm

tobottherobot wrote: »

Agree... I sold nearly all of my US shares early this week. I might wait a few months and see how things pan out with Covid before picking more up in Europe.. .

cool i went for that hellofresh one that was suggested its doing well so far.
Might have a go at MCPHY next. i've no idea what i'm doing to be honest just learning as i go with a small account. Where do you find information on eu stocks. For US stocks theres nearly too much information floating around from tv channels, stock pickers, daily reports nothing even close to it for europe.

ExMachina1000 · 24-09-2020 8:29pm

voluntary wrote: »

How fast are they burning it though? You won't know until everyone knows.

Its about 4 billion euro with unused credit lines of 3 billion euro
O'Leary was on the radio today saying they are at 70 % capacity and flew 5 million passengers in August. 3 million expected in Sept

Mickiemcfist · 24-09-2020 9:47pm

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Its about 4 billion euro with unused credit lines of 3 billion euro
O'Leary was on the radio today saying they are at 70 % capacity and flew 5 million passengers in August. 3 million expected in Sept

They flew 14.9m passengers in August 2019. They're at 70% capacity on the planes they haven't grounded.

Fantomas9mm · 24-09-2020 10:31pm

Are any of the medicinal cannabis stocks worth a look at the moment ?

It seems they have all settled down now to a more sensible price ?

Any thoughts on Tilray ?

littlevillage · 25-09-2020 4:18am

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

They flew 14.9m passengers in August 2019. They're at 70% capacity on the planes they haven't grounded.

And they have grounded a mere 90% of their regular flights

frebel · 25-09-2020 8:35am

Shedite27 wrote: »

Been in it since $20, I think it's here to stay. There's probably thesis' written about it, but for me saying they have "one thing" is similar to saying all Apple do is iPhone. Their customers are so into it now it's a bit of a cult.

It's a gym replacement rather than competing with another bike, it's the online classes that are selling the product. You know how much a spinning class in New York or San Francisco costs? $34 a pop - addd more if you want to rent the cycling shoes. The average user of a Peloton does through 24 classes a month. It's not that expensive when you run the numbers. I won't be buying one, but if 3 classes a month in your gym costs $400 - it's easy to see why you'd get yourself a bike and subscription.

Still hard to understand how it has so many customers though with such a cost just to start. Think peloton bike is 2k+!!
Road cyclists wouldn't pay that on a stationary bike and most gym users would be slow to pay that much from the start...

There's plenty of competition such as Zwift which provides online community along with workouts and gaming element yet is only 14 euro per month and you can set it up with any bike and smart trainer...which makes them mobile and take up less space...

It's marketing isn't always on point either

None of it makes sense really

ChuckieEgg · 25-09-2020 8:48am

frebel wrote: »

Still hard to understand how it has so many customers though with such a cost just to start. Think peloton bike is 2k+!!
Road cyclists wouldn't pay that on a stationary bike and most gym users would be slow to pay that much from the start...

There's plenty of competition such as Zwift which provides online community along with workouts and gaming element yet is only 14 euro per month and you can set it up with any bike and smart trainer...which makes them mobile and take up less space...

It's marketing isn't always on point either

None of it makes sense really

Plenty road cyclists pay well over 2k for a bike. You will not get a competition bike for 2k.
Peloton know that there are people who want the best of the best and they aim to provide it.

voluntary · 25-09-2020 8:49am

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

They flew 14.9m passengers in August 2019. They're at 70% capacity on the planes they haven't grounded.

And the passenger numbers don't represent earnings. Currently they sell tickets for nothing. Buy one get one (passenger) free and 50 eur off offers. 4b in cash is a lot of money (actually less then 3b in cash, the rest in some financial assets) but they burned nearly 200 million in the quarter ending June.

frebel · 25-09-2020 8:59am

ChuckieEgg wrote: »

Plenty road cyclists pay well over 2k for a bike. You will not get a competition bike for 2k.
Peloton know that there are people who want the best of the best and they aim to provide it.

Exactly... so they would generally spend their 2k on a road bike/ tt bike/ winter bike/ competition bike ahead of a stationary bike...

Either way, if there are cyclists who would do that, I wouldn't have thought there would be enough numbers doing so to make company so successful...

ChuckieEgg · 25-09-2020 9:05am

Well you could have the same thought process about the iPhone or any manufacturer flagship phone. Or luxury cars for that matter.
There's a lot of people out there with loads of money to spend

bp_me · 25-09-2020 10:12am

frebel wrote: »

Road cyclists wouldn't pay that on a stationary bike and most gym users would be slow to pay that much from the start...

Yes they would!

Kickr Bike. Tacx Neo bike. Kickr + kickr climb combo. Wattbike atom. To name just a few. The kickr and neo bikes are more like 3k+....

Fantomas9mm · 25-09-2020 10:41am

frebel wrote: »

Exactly... so they would generally spend their 2k on a road bike/ tt bike/ winter bike/ competition bike ahead of a stationary bike...

Either way, if there are cyclists who would do that, I wouldn't have thought there would be enough numbers doing so to make company so successful...

Bikes are nearly sold out all over the country.

Shedite27 · 25-09-2020 10:51am

Peloton isn't competing with Canyon road bikes. Neither is it competing with any run of the mill stationary bikes. It's competing with gyms.

If I was do go to a 45 minute spin class at 11am this morning, I have a 10/15 minute walk down, time to get setup on the bike, and 10/15 minute walk home. And if that's a bleak November morning, forget about it. With Peloton, I can block an hour out of my work calendar, do my 45 mns in the spare room, have a shower and be back at the laptop by 12. The missus could do a Yoga class through the screen on it later if she wants it.

And don't forget, a lot of people have gym memberships that are close to offices, or ties in with their commutes. They're gone now. A lot of people have further than 10/15 minute walk to get to the gym.

ChuckieEgg · 25-09-2020 11:34am

I believe Peloton has a market within the Gyms too. As Frebel was alluding to, not everyone can afford or has the space for there own Pton Bike. Yet for a Gym the Peloton package could replace instructors within the Gym.
I think the biggest threat to them is from the likes of Apple and Amazon.
As an investment, it has gotten overheated this year and may drop back a bit for a buying opportunity

AmberGold · 25-09-2020 2:06pm

ChuckieEgg wrote: »

I believe Peloton has a market within the Gyms too. As Frebel was alluding to, not everyone can afford or has the space for there own Pton Bike. Yet for a Gym the Peloton package could replace instructors within the Gym.
I think the biggest threat to them is from the likes of Apple and Amazon.
As an investment, it has gotten overheated this year and may drop back a bit for a buying opportunity

If Apple bought Zwift that would something for Peloton to worry about.

Browney7 · 25-09-2020 2:51pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

I know it's been asked before, but any insight as to when $GAN is slipping? Seems to be down everyday recently.

From $13 in May
To $27 in July
Back to $15 today

Might be a bit of activity on the gambling stocks stateside with the news of William hill (30% jump) being approached for a takeover.

Bob Harris · 25-09-2020 3:14pm

On Ryanair, flew last week and paid 80€ return about 6/7 weeks ago. The same flights were 16€ return the day before the flight. There were about 40 on board and I expect the same going back. The return flight was changed twice due to cancellations. This is a route that would have 3/4 daily flights and always fairly full in normal times.
Ryanair have cash to ride this out and are best positioned to respond to any increase in demand but their business is suffering and only the above is keeping the share price afloat

Shedite27 · 25-09-2020 3:43pm

Bob Harris wrote: »

On Ryanair, flew last week and paid 80€ return about 6/7 weeks ago. The same flights were 16€ return the day before the flight. There were about 40 on board and I expect the same going back. The return flight was changed twice due to cancellations. This is a route that would have 3/4 daily flights and always fairly full in normal times.
Ryanair have cash to ride this out and are best positioned to respond to any increase in demand but their business is suffering and only the above is keeping the share price afloat

It's basically a "who can last longest" game with the Airlines. The more weak airlines that go bust, the more market for the strong players in the long run. Every time one of Flybe go bankrupt, that's good for Ryanair.

sirboby · 25-09-2020 3:43pm

I know this probably is not the ideal thread to ask in but does anyone know what caused the Rolls-Royce spike? I just watched it go from -2% down today to +12% in the past few minutes, cant find any breaking news

Shedite27 · 25-09-2020 3:52pm

sirboby wrote: »

I know this probably is not the ideal thread to ask in but does anyone know what caused the Rolls-Royce spike? I just watched it go from -2% down today to +12% in the past few minutes, cant find any breaking news

https://news.sky.com/story/kuwaits-state-fund-in-talks-to-take-stake-in-struggling-rolls-royce-12081350

Best way to find breaking news is to type the ticker into twitter with a $ sign before it. ie $RR
I always do it before I make a purchase/sale just in case there's something that's broken

sirboby · 25-09-2020 4:13pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/kuwaits-state-fund-in-talks-to-take-stake-in-struggling-rolls-royce-12081350

Best way to find breaking news is to type the ticker into twitter with a $ sign before it. ie $RR
I always do it before I make a purchase/sale just in case there's something that's broken

That's actually really useful, thanks for that I'm still relatively new to all this

Mickiemcfist · 25-09-2020 4:18pm

Shedite27 wrote: »

It's basically a "who can last longest" game with the Airlines. The more weak airlines that go bust, the more market for the strong players in the long run. Every time one of Flybe go bankrupt, that's good for Ryanair.

MOL has a good point on it though. Ryanair should be the one to be able to capitalize most, but a lot of the flag carriers are state supported so have effectively limitless funding. The Lufthanza deal recently is an example.

Fantomas9mm · 25-09-2020 4:58pm

Fantomas9mm wrote: »

Are any of the medicinal cannabis stocks worth a look at the moment ?

It seems they have all settled down now to a more sensible price ?

Any thoughts on Tilray ?

I see Aurora Cannabis are down 86% in the last year !

Is stock like this not worth touching until at least after the US Presidential election ?

Or would you not go near it full stop ?

Share Picks 2020

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