Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

NunianVonFuch · 21-09-2020 04:05PM

Paddygreen wrote: »

People. It’s going to be carnage, mass graves the works, I am surfing a wave of fear and anxiety atm. Glad I filled my presses with essentials now. Seriously thinking of one last trip to Spar before the grim reaper does his rounds. I suppose we have to look on the bright side though...there is lots of cold storage in the meat factories that could be commandeered to store the bodies.

Seems a missed Soylent Green opportunity to simply store the bodies in the meat factories... :pac:

21-09-2020 04:08PM

Benimar wrote: »

647 positive swabs over the weekend.

Depending on backlog that could mean anything from 240 -300 cases announced today

Based on recent trends would likely be under 200 today, with backlog rolled over in to Tuesday

Funsterdelux · 21-09-2020 04:08PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I just heard that it's Tesco Wilton off someone in the HSE, it could possibly be both?

Probably all over the centre if its both.

Though Ive heard it through the grapevine, my OH she works on the northside, things tend to get exaggerated or fudged.
Hopefully its just one shop

Plumbthedepths · 21-09-2020 04:08PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes.

So children's education and mental well being is of no interest to you.

Gael23 · 21-09-2020 04:10PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Is a discharge a discharge as in there gone home or just moved back out of ICU?

Few would be discharged home from ICU, Covid or not

tobefrank321 · 21-09-2020 04:10PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Terribly bad odds for the elderly

The older you get the worse your odds get in general. Sad fact of life.

21-09-2020 04:11PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You'd expect about 7-8% of over 80 year olds to die in any given year anyways. Once you're over 80 you're living on bonus time. If Covid doesn't get you something else will. So you'd have to question the value of destroying economies to prolong the lives of some people by a few months.

In the UK, a study by Oxford University showed that 1/3rd of those whose deaths is assigned to covid 19 actually died of something else but also had covid 19 as a co-morbidity. The numbers could be similar in Ireland.

I had a relative you was over 85. He said every day he woke up was a bonus. He died suddenly a good death as they say. Lovely man. Im glad hes not hear with covid. Covid death is not a good death.

Arghus · 21-09-2020 04:11PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It's rising rapidly in Dublin.
The rest of the country is stable at ~25 in hospital.

13th September:
37 in Dublin
20 in rest of counties

20th September:
60 in Dublin
28 in rest of counties

That's still a, what, 40% increase in numbers for the rest of the country in a week.

Nothing to see here etc, etc, etc...

gordongekko · 21-09-2020 04:11PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You'd expect about 7-8% of over 80 year olds to die in any given year anyways. Once you're over 80 you're living on bonus time. If Covid doesn't get you something else will. So you'd have to question the value of destroying economies to prolong the lives of some people by a few months.

In the UK, a study by Oxford University showed that 1/3rd of those whose deaths is assigned to covid 19 actually died of something else but also had covid 19 as a co-morbidity. The numbers could be similar in Ireland.

Yeah sure it only kills over 80s who's life doesn't matter or will you go as far as suggesting any Ill person should be allowed to die? Maybe we should just ban doctors and close hospitals sure we will all die sometime!!!

eagle eye · 21-09-2020 04:12PM

tobefrank321 wrote:

You'd expect about 7-8% of over 80 year olds to die in any given year anyways. Once you're over 80 you're living on bonus time. If Covid doesn't get you something else will. So you'd have to question the value of destroying economies to prolong the lives of some people by a few months.

Are you going to kill yourself when you reach 80? Are you going to give up on some of your life because it doesn't matter as you are over 80?

tobefrank321 · 21-09-2020 04:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Based on recent trends would likely be under 200 today, with backlog rolled over in to Tuesday

Monday and Tuesday tend to be outliers. Lower on Mondays because of the weekend, higher on Tuesday because of the backlog as you say.

Boggles · 21-09-2020 04:12PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So you'd have to question the value of destroying economies to prolong the lives of some people by a few months.

The control measures are to protect the hospitals.

If you killed everyone over the age of 80 today, it doesn't change that fact.

The majority of people who needed hospitalization because of Covid, survived and left hospital.

eagle eye · 21-09-2020 04:13PM

Plumbthedepths wrote:

So children's education and mental well being is of no interest to you.

You can have virtual classrooms.

Mental health? I remember being a child and all my great memories are if the summer holidays, most of them at home.

wadacrack · 21-09-2020 04:13PM

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1306966768230031360

theballz · 21-09-2020 04:14PM

Paddygreen wrote: »

People. It’s going to be carnage, mass graves the works, I am surfing a wave of fear and anxiety atm.Glad I filled my presses with essentials now. Seriously thinking of one last trip to Spar before the grim reaper does his rounds. I suppose we have to look on the bright side though...there is lots of cold storage in the meat factories that could be comendeered to store the bodies.

I think its time you seen a doctor

Icantthinkof1 · 21-09-2020 04:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There’s a lot of healthcare workers who believe COVID was here long before March.

Ace- out of interest when do they suspect it’s been here since

tobefrank321 · 21-09-2020 04:14PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Are you going to kill yourself when you reach 80? Are you going to give up on some of your life because it doesn't matter as you are over 80?

I'm just pointing out the fact that once you hit 80, your chances of living longer reduce significantly by every year.

The chances of an 80 year old living to be 100 are far lower than the chances of a 20 year old living to be 40 or a 40 year old living to be 60.

So 7-8% of over 85s may die of covid but they are also likely to die from something else. Its also likely 0.1% of 20-45 year olds die from something else.

is_that_so · 21-09-2020 04:15PM

Arghus wrote: »

That's still a, what, 40% increase in numbers for the rest of the country in a week.

Nothing to see here etc, etc, etc...

There is anyway, it's just parsing the data not casually waving away rising numbers that you imagine.

Hawthorn Tree · 21-09-2020 04:15PM

Is there any detail yet in exactly how a county moves through the levels? Is it data driven with KPIs or is it subjective?

21-09-2020 04:16PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You'd expect about 7-8% of over 80 year olds to die in any given year anyways. Once you're over 80 you're living on bonus time. If Covid doesn't get you something else will. So you'd have to question the value of destroying economies to prolong the lives of some people by a few months.

In the UK, a study by Oxford University showed that 1/3rd of those whose deaths is assigned to covid 19 actually died of something else but also had covid 19 as a co-morbidity. The numbers could be similar in Ireland.

The data is aligning with an estimate produced early in the pandemic that the risk for any individual of dying from covid is roughly equal to the annual risk of dying from another cause. 0.6% of 5 million is 30,000 and in a normal year we have about 30,000 deaths. Of course a significant proportion of the vulnerable who die from covid would have died from something else in the same year, so uncontrolled the excess mortality for Ireland would be significantly less than 30,000.

The data I posted on death rates is Philip Nolans by the way.
https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1307644210766647303

Funsterdelux · 21-09-2020 04:17PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You can have virtual classrooms.

Mental health? I remember being a child and all my great memories are if the summer holidays, most of them at home.

The only exception being the day a dog came into the school!

Hurrache · 21-09-2020 04:18PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What was my claim your calling nonsense, I've asked you to back up your opinion and you still haven't, come back your evidence or stick a sock in it.

You're still at this crap?

eagle eye · 21-09-2020 04:18PM

tobefrank321 wrote:

So 7-8% of over 85s may die of covid but they are also likely to die from something else. Its also likely 0.1% of 20-45 year olds die from something else.

But one of them could have lived to 100+ if not for Covid-19. So you are just dismissing 20+ years of their life.

21-09-2020 04:20PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Is there any detail yet in exactly how a county moves through the levels? Is it data driven with KPIs or is it subjective?

The NPHET review KPI's for around the country and based on data trends identify where potential clusters may occur and what action may need to be taken to reduce incidence. Then they butcher a chicken and take the auguries by examining its liver to see what they can get past the government without them noticing.

tobefrank321 · 21-09-2020 04:20PM

gordongekko wrote: »

Yeah sure it only kills over 80s who's life doesn't matter or will you go as far as suggesting any Ill person should be allowed to die? Maybe we should just ban doctors and close hospitals sure we will all die sometime!!!

You need to look at some stats and studies.

Number 1 is the latest from Oxford University. They found 1/3rd of covid deaths were not actually covid deaths at all, those who died just happened to have covid at the time of death. People can die for a large number of reasons and also have covid.

And yes many elderly also had weeks to live when they contracted covid.

is_that_so · 21-09-2020 04:20PM

Hawthorn Tree wrote: »

Is there any detail yet in exactly how a county moves through the levels? Is it data driven with KPIs or is it subjective?

There doesn't seem to be one trigger. Glynn has said it's a number of factors but who knows which ones. Cases per 100K is one for sure, the rate of increase as well I'd guess and the level of community spread. There may be other data they have that influences the decision.

21-09-2020 04:23PM

is_that_so wrote: »

There doesn't seem to be one trigger. Glynn has said it's a number of factors but who knows which ones. Cases per 100K is one for sure, the rate of increase as well I'd guess and the level of community spread. There may be other data they have that influences the decision.

Incidence

% community transmission

No. of actual cases

Gael23 · 21-09-2020 04:23PM

Appears to be a situation developing in Wilton. I wonder how quick MM will be to lock down his own constituency

igCorcaigh · 21-09-2020 04:28PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

People can die for a large number of reasons and also have covid.

Sure, but the probability of someone who has just died, but happens to have an unrelated covid infection is the same as the incidence of any random person having covid at a particular time.

Which surely is very very small, right?

So the deaths "with covid" should be insignificant, am I right?

CalamariFritti · 21-09-2020 04:31PM

tigger123 wrote: »

You'd expect those supporting herd immunity would be hanging around ICU wards, actively trying to get the coronavirus, just to get themselves immune so they can then go do whatever they want.

If its the way forward, those brave souls should lead the charge head long into the virus and then let us know how they're getting on.

At this stage I would.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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