COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

iguana · 21-09-2020 10:11AM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

There isn't going to be some magic fix to this.

I don't think this is the first time I've pointed this out on this thread, but duh! Of course there will be no magic fix to this. This isn't the Spells/wards and scrying procedures Megathread. Posters here (I assume) don't believe in magic. Vaccine creation is pretty much the opposite of magic. Vaccines are real, they are proven, they are protecting us from many, many viral and bacterial diseases. And while most of the world is waiting for proper safety trials to conclude, there are already Covid-19 vaccines that genuinely seem to work being given to populations in China and Russia. So how in the name of Hecate can anyone conclude there will never be a vaccine for this when there already appear to be three? With numerous very, very positive appearing vaccines currently in the latter stages of safety and efficacy testing for the rest of the world.

Thierry12 · 21-09-2020 10:16AM

astrofool wrote: »

The mutations that occur with COVID19 are nothing like that which occur with influenza, research so far looks like the spike protein that allows COVID19 to spread and infect so well also hinders it's ability to mutate.

This looks like a once in a generation pandemic, there's no evidence to suggest otherwise yet (even if the tabloids spill ink on every new virus, and random virologists opinion to make it seem otherwise.

Follow the science.

It can mutate with different hosts and come back full circle to us very very angry

Anything is possible in nature, life finds a way always

Dont be so naive

Some virologists have speculated about bats native to the amazon and tribes there as possible reservoirs

CBear1993 · 21-09-2020 10:19AM

I returned from Greece on Friday and I wanted to get myself tested as I have to make a few trips to my parents home (they're young, in late 40s) this weekend and the one after.

I've a test this morning at 11:30 in Swords/Cloghran after ringing on Saturday.

It's only now that I'm thinking is it too soon? I don't have any symptoms but because I'm in my 20s and otherwise healthy I figured I might be asymptomatic, and better to be safe than sorry.

I will obviously keep my distance while I am up there and try to be there for as short a time as possible, but I do have to definitely go up. Plus there's always the chance I could run into someone more elderly on my journey home.

Igotadose · 21-09-2020 10:19AM

An article describing what might happen once a vaccine is actually available, that is, how many doses and how soon it would take to cover, say, the US.

The article is from a strongly anti-anti-vaxx individual whose blog is a good go-to site when you hear anti-vax nonsense, he's got good links for rebutting all the claims or links to others that do.

He's been vocal about being concerned about rushing a vaccine.

His style is somewhat 'tongue in cheek' but his science is always spot on. Be forewarned, he has zero use for anti-vaxxers and isn't afraid to taunt them.

https://www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalraptorblog.php/coronavirus-vaccine-priority-list-if-i-were-elected-the-emperor-of-vaccines/

iguana · 21-09-2020 10:31AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

It can mutate with different hosts and come back full circle to us very very angry

No it can't. It's a non-cellular entity. It has no emotions whatsoever. So absolutely, categorically can not come back at us very, very angry.

21-09-2020 10:42AM

CBear1993 wrote: »

I returned from Greece on Friday and I wanted to get myself tested as I have to make a few trips to my parents home (they're young, in late 40s) this weekend and the one after.

I've a test this morning at 11:30 in Swords/Cloghran after ringing on Saturday.

It's only now that I'm thinking is it too soon? I don't have any symptoms but because I'm in my 20s and otherwise healthy I figured I might be asymptomatic, and better to be safe than sorry.

I will obviously keep my distance while I am up there and try to be there for as short a time as possible, but I do have to definitely go up. Plus there's always the chance I could run into someone more elderly on my journey home.

Mean time to symptoms is 7 days and can be infectious up to 3 days prior to that, so, in >50% of cases virus may be detected from 4 days post exposure. However, it may take up to 14 days. If you return a negative test, it basically tells you that at the time you were tested you weren't infectious. That's about it. I think you would have be en better off waiting a couple of days more for a test.

Thierry12 · 21-09-2020 10:43AM

iguana wrote: »

No it can't. It's a non-cellular entity. It has no emotions whatsoever. So absolutely, categorically can not come back at us very, very angry.

Are you a virologist?

CBear1993 · 21-09-2020 10:55AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Mean time to symptoms is 7 days and can be infectious up to 3 days prior to that, so, in >50% of cases virus may be detected from 4 days post exposure. However, it may take up to 14 days. If you return a negative test, it basically tells you that at the time you were tested you weren't infectious. That's about it. I think you would have be en better off waiting a couple of days more for a test.

I think you're right, it was very easy to change it. Just pushed it on out there to Wednesday morning, same venue.

How long is it generally taking people's results to come back? Would be tempted to change it to Thursday, but if it's the full 3 days then that'll be too late as I would need to know by Saturday before I make my journey northwards.

21-09-2020 11:02AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Are you a virologist?

Viruses don't get angry. The just replicate. That's it. The most efficient viruses just replicate without impacting the host whatsoever. At any one time there are estimated to be 380 trillion viruses inhabiting us at any one time.

Stark · 21-09-2020 11:09AM

At least it dies when it stings you though.

Marhay70 · 21-09-2020 11:56AM

JDD wrote: »

I'm seriously thinking about becoming vegetarian since this all started.

Don't get me wrong, I believe in science, I will take the vaccine and I think animals should be vaccinated against known viruses, but lets fact it we always overestimate the risk of something that has already happened, and underestimate the risk of something that is yet to happen. So we can vaccinate animals all we want, but new viruses will still come.

I have to agree with the sentiment here, If we hadn't decided that Sars/Mers was a spent force we might have continued research into the genetics of the viruses and into a vaccine, had we done that we may have been in a much better place to meet the challenge of Covid 19.
I wonder will any lessons be learned, I know that big Pharma would not and will not commit funding to projects that may have no return and that's understandable, but it's not big Pharma that is paying the price with Covid, it's everybody on the planet. Governments need to take more heed of what is happening.

XsApollo · 21-09-2020 12:06PM

Marhay70 wrote: »

I have to agree with the sentiment here, If we hadn't decided that Sars/Mers was a spent force we might have continued research into the genetics of the viruses and into a vaccine, had we done that we may have been in a much better place to meet the challenge of Covid 19.
I wonder will any lessons be learned, I know that big Pharma would not and will not commit funding to projects that may have no return and that's understandable, but it's not big Pharma that is paying the price with Covid, it's everybody on the planet. Governments need to take more heed of what is happening.

Well I think the reason they didn’t continue with researching sars and Mers is because how do you ethically test if the vaccine is working? If there is nobody getting infected.
Bar infecting people with Virus which seems to be a no no.

DaSilva · 21-09-2020 12:15PM

In a recent podcast I was listening to, they discussed that vaccines might not even be the silver bullet people are making them out to be, the problem they were suggesting is that due to the evidence of re-infections, it's possible the vaccine/re-infection will give you immunity to disease, but you might still be getting infected and still be capable of transmitting it. In short, you won't get sick, but you can still pass it on...

Anyone heard about this elsewhere? They weren't saying this is 100% the case, just its a possibility

Sconsey · 21-09-2020 12:19PM

DaSilva wrote: »

In a recent podcast I was listening to, they discussed that vaccines might not even be the silver bullet people are making them out to be, the problem they were suggesting is that due to the evidence of re-infections, it's possible the vaccine/re-infection will give you immunity to disease, but you might still be getting infected and still be capable of transmitting it. In short, you won't get sick, but you can still pass it on...

Anyone heard about this elsewhere? They weren't saying this is 100% the case, just its a possibility

Thats my understanding too...people may still contract it (and potentially spread it) but their immune system will be better prepared to fight the virus to the point that you won't get many symptoms.

Polar101 · 21-09-2020 12:25PM

DaSilva wrote: »

, it's possible the vaccine/re-infection will give you immunity to disease, but you might still be getting infected and still be capable of transmitting it. In short, you won't get sick, but you can still pass it on...

Okay, but if the virus doesn't give you the disease, then that's only a problem to those who aren't immune. And the fix is vaccinating as many people as possible, which seems to be the current plan.

Marhay70 · 21-09-2020 12:28PM

XsApollo wrote: »

Well I think the reason they didn’t continue with researching sars and Mers is because how do you ethically test if the vaccine is working? If there is nobody getting infected.
Bar infecting people with Virus which seems to be a no no.

I'm not just talking about the vaccines, I'm talking about the genetic make up of the virus itself, like they have done with Covid. They have broken Covid down into its smallest components. that could have been done with Sars/Mers too whether or not there was an active infection but the fact there was no active infection made the research untenable.
I accept that the technology used in the Covid research was probably not fully developed at the time but the point I'm making is, if and when Covid has been banished to the mists of history, will we sit back and rest on our laurels like we did last time even though virologists then and now have warned that more of the same is not just possible but probable.

Miike · 21-09-2020 12:28PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

And I think that we suffer from some god complex. What make you think that enforced and monitored mass vaccination of farm animals (and certainly humans too) worldwide will make any difference? Nature always find a way.
Like it found a way with our obsession with cleanliness and hygiene by giving us huge increase of allergies. So we traded one evil for another.
We should invest more in finding out how to improve our health by perhaps modifying our lifestyle or diet instead of looking for and waiting for some miracle jab or pill.
There is no vaccine against something which does not exist yet. If nothing then our flu vaccination story is a prime example of how covid vaccination will look like. Pure lottery waiting if we get the strain right.

I've left some recommended reading that will start you in your journey of learning the answers to those question if you so desire. This isn't something I've made up, its been demonstrated time and time again. There are ways to slow (ideally stop) these diseases crossing the species barrier into humans but it will incur cost and change. You appear to be under the illusion I'm suggesting vaccinating against a disease that doesn't yet exist? Not what I've stated, alluded to or suggested.

"Improving our health" is a useless statement when you're talking about novel emerging infectious diseases in a naive/susceptible population.

Le Bruise · 21-09-2020 12:33PM

WHO certainly at pains to make out that a vaccine won't be a silver bullet.

I don't think anyone really thought it was going to be. As in, announce a fully functioning vaccine and the virus suddenly goes away. It'll just mean we can start to get back to normal as more and more people (vulnerable and frontline especially) get vaccinated.

This will be with us for a long time, probably forever, but with a vaccine we can go about our lives and not worry about it (like all the other diseases/viruses in circulation).

Gael23 · 21-09-2020 12:43PM

So a vaccine won’t end this then?

tobefrank321 · 21-09-2020 12:44PM

Le Bruise wrote: »

WHO certainly at pains to make out that a vaccine won't be a silver bullet.

I don't think anyone really thought it was going to be. As in, announce a fully functioning vaccine and the virus suddenly goes away. It'll just mean we can start to get back to normal as more and more people (vulnerable and frontline especially) get vaccinated.

This will be with us for a long time, probably forever, but with a vaccine we can go about our lives and not worry about it (like all the other diseases/viruses in circulation).

You can take a lot of what the WHO say with a pinch of salt, they've been wrong on numerous occasions and their incompetence is one of the reasons why covid 19 spread around the world.

Eg.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/01/30/275959/the-china-coronavirus-is-officially-an-international-emergency/

No travel ban: Tedros, as he is called, said the WHO does not recommend limiting either trade or travel to China at this time. “In fact, we oppose it,” he said. The health organization said it would question border closures, quarantining of airplane passengers who aren’t ill, and similar steps. Some regions have taken such measures, including Hong Kong, which has sought to limit transportation to the Chinese mainland. British Airways and American Airlines said this week they would halt or limit flights to China as well.

As New Zealand and a couple of other countries have shown, quarantining of airplane passengers who aren't ill works. Its lucky for them they ignored WHO "advice".

As for the vaccine being a silver bullet, no-one has said that, so they are stating the obvious. The vaccine if targetted at the right people should hugely reduce deaths and flatten the curve of hospitalisations without disrupting economies and should put an end to lockdowns that prevent the normal functioning of economies. So the vaccine is critical to ending this mess.

Miike · 21-09-2020 12:49PM

Gael23 wrote: »

So a vaccine won’t end this then?

Not over night. A vaccine will drive down the Re (effective reproduction number) to the point where we can attempt to go back to precovid functioning of life and business, all things going well. Eventually the disease will "fizzle out" when the susceptible population decreases in size.

tobefrank321 · 21-09-2020 12:50PM

Gael23 wrote: »

So a vaccine won’t end this then?

It should end it and return life to some form of normality where covid can be vaccinated against.

If the WHO are implying that developing a vaccine is pointless, their incompetence is even more dangerous than I thought. Governments need to plow billions into developing a vaccine as its the only solution.

XsApollo · 21-09-2020 12:51PM

Marhay70 wrote: »

I'm not just talking about the vaccines, I'm talking about the genetic make up of the virus itself, like they have done with Covid. They have broken Covid down into its smallest components. that could have been done with Sars/Mers too whether or not there was an active infection but the fact there was no active infection made the research untenable.
I accept that the technology used in the Covid research was probably not fully developed at the time but the point I'm making is, if and when Covid has been banished to the mists of history, will we sit back and rest on our laurels like we did last time even though virologists then and now have warned that more of the same is not just possible but probable.

You said they stopped research because it wasn’t profitable.

And I think of course they broke down sars and Mers to the level they have broken down Covid to research to make a vaccine.

Oxford Scientists have a Mers vaccine that they couldn’t get to phase 3 trial I think because none of the countries with Mers thought it necessary and it’s practically the reason they are one of the front runners and have been so quick to get where they are now with a potential vaccine for Covid.

Le Bruise · 21-09-2020 01:00PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It should end it and return life to some form of normality where covid can be vaccinated against.

If the WHO are implying that developing a vaccine is pointless, their incompetence is even more dangerous than I thought. Governments need to plow billions into developing a vaccine as its the only solution.

I don't think they were saying a vaccine is pointless, just that it won't end things straight away.

For lay people, a return to normality is the end point, and for most of the first world that comes with the first batch of vaccine development.

For the WHO I assume that end point is total suppression and an end to the pandemic on a global scale. Unfortunately, I don't think many developing countries will see a vaccine for quite a while.

Micky 32 · 21-09-2020 01:01PM

Gael23 wrote: »

So a vaccine won’t end this then?

A successful vaccine will make a huge difference to your life and others.

DaSilva · 21-09-2020 01:05PM

Miike wrote: »

Not over night. A vaccine will drive down the Re (effective reproduction number) to the point where we can attempt to go back to precovid functioning of life and business, all things going well. Eventually the disease will "fizzle out" when the susceptible population decreases in size.

Some concern I've heard is that a vaccine will not affect the Re, but would reduce seriousness of disease

Deeper Blue · 21-09-2020 01:07PM

I assume once vaccination happens Covid will be similar to TB i.e. still technically around but not really relevant in the Western world.

Le Bruise · 21-09-2020 01:13PM

El Sueño wrote: »

I assume once vaccination happens Covid will be similar to TB i.e. still technically around but not really relevant in the Western world.

Exactly. Sure Polio's only just been eradicated in Africa this year (open to correction on this 'fact')!

Miike · 21-09-2020 01:17PM

DaSilva wrote: »

Some concern I've heard is that a vaccine will not affect the Re, but would reduce seriousness of disease

No one can really say for certain which vaccine(s) will come to fruition just yet but if I remember correctly the Oxford groups candidate confers immunity (increasing with a double dose regime) and while sterilising immunity would be the gold standard - I'd take anything right now that could reduce the risk I pass COVID onto my immediate family.

DaSilva · 21-09-2020 01:43PM

Miike wrote: »

No one can really say for certain which vaccine(s) will come to fruition just yet but if I remember correctly the Oxford groups candidate confers immunity (increasing with a double dose regime) and while sterilising immunity would be the gold standard - I'd take anything right now that could reduce the risk I pass COVID onto my immediate family.

Is that not the potential issue though? That short of sterilising immunity means you can be infected, and potentially still transmitting, so it might not prevent you passing it to your family, but might prevent you ending up in hospital

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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