Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

The consequences of not nipping a Covid surge in the bud:

"Two of Israel’s largest hospitals are opening their underground medical wards, set aside for time of war, as designated coronavirus facilities."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/israel-begins-three-week-lockdown-as-coronavirus-figures-mount-1.4357708

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Well, you could start by asking all the people who were present at the golfing weekend when the person suddenly died.

True but how is that info passed on to HSE in first place?

seamus wrote: »

All deaths are being tested for covid so that appropriate measures can be put in place if necessary.

This is another (anecdotal) example of this new phenomenon where covid appears to be popping up everywhere incidentally without causing any symptoms.

Best case scenario it means the virus is far less serious than it appears to be.

Worst case scenario the testing infrastructure is a mess and false positives are high.

I didn't realise all were. That's good. Do you mean high false negative rate?

seamus wrote: »

The number of school clusters is very small. The vast vast majority of cases are kids picking it up from someone at home not someone in school.

How do you know that?

Are they using a different more advance level of surveillance in schools than the rest of society?

Example.

Kid tests positive in class, class told to self isolate for 14 days regardless.

5 kids develop symptoms from same class 6 days later. GP contacted, you get test, test positive - you get placed in track and trace pot.

5 different tracers ring the 5 different families, what are your movements in the past 48 hours?

Class / School doesn't get linked.

I imagine Nolan will be on twitter in November / December telling us the same thing if we have to close down schools.

Eod100 wrote: »

I didn't realise all were. That's good. Do you mean high false negative rate?

No, I mean high false positive. There are anecdotal reports this week of routine covid tests, such as those post-mortem or pre-surgery, picking up non-negligible numbers of new cases. People who would never otherwise have been detected because they're asymptomatic and not close contacts of anyone else.

We need to look at our testing to make sure we're not getting an abnormally large # of false positives.

1641 wrote: »

The consequences of not nipping a Covid surge in the bud:

"Two of Israel’s largest hospitals are opening their underground medical wards, set aside for time of war, as designated coronavirus facilities."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/israel-begins-three-week-lockdown-as-coronavirus-figures-mount-1.4357708

We've underground facilities somewhere, remember reading about them.

seamus wrote: »

No, I mean high false positive. There are anecdotal reports this week of routine covid tests, such as those post-mortem or pre-surgery, picking up non-negligible numbers of new cases. People who would never otherwise have been detected because they're asymptomatic and not close contacts of anyone else.

We need to look at our testing to make sure we're not getting an abnormally large # of false positives.

You can’t discount positive cases just because they don’t suit the narrative. If we are to aggressively hunt down and cut off this virus in its tracks we need to identify as many positive cases as possible. That may mean our numbers go up, but if we do it correctly, those numbers should reduce in the longer term.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

We've underground facilities somewhere, remember reading about them.

We did have a functional nuclear bunker in an army base in Athlone. But it has not been active for some time now.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/in-pictures-inside-irelands-secret-vip-nuclear-bunker-36285102.html

Might be time to dust it down and wait out the pandemic;)

Cabinet meeting starting within the next half hour. Keep an eye out for leaks

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Lab tests have a known false detection rate though.

DeGascun said the other day 1-3% in Irish Labs.

A beer delivery today?

screamer wrote: »

You can’t discount positive cases just because they don’t suit the narrative. If we are to aggressively hunt down and cut off this virus in its tracks we need to identify as many positive cases as possible. That may mean our numbers go up, but if we do it correctly, those numbers should reduce in the longer term.

"Not discounting cases that don't suit the narrative" is exactly my point. If there is a trend that seems to be running contrary to the narrative, then we should be investigating that trend to see if our data is wrong, or if we need to readjust our narrative.

If, for example, we could suddenly test 500,000 people a week, started just testing everyone and discovered evidence that the asymptomatic rate for this virus was in the 90% range, putting the CFR down to fraction of a percent, then we'd need to reconsider whether we should be fighting it so aggressively. Or at all.

In this whole scenario it is really important to constantly re-evaluate the data and act based on what you know right now, not based on what we thought we knew 6 months ago.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

A beer delivery today?

Doesnt seem to be any this week. As far as I know it’ll be close enough to the swab number as there’s no backlog.