Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

ArmaniJeanss · 17-09-2020 12:46PM

The Nal wrote: »

And thats with weather that 22c today and its nearly the weekend.

Theres another 6 months of this to go through. Winter too. Freezing cold, rain, dark at 8am, dark at 4.30pm, can't go anywhere or do anything, huge rising numbers etc.

Saddle up.

Yep - Personally, I found it so much easier in March.
Weather was nice, clock went forward so evenings got longer for that 30 minutes walk/jog, the promise of summer-time and the hope the good weather would last through it (lololol), maybe a week abroad in late August/September.
It's a really bleak prospect now heading into October, very depressing.

ACitizenErased · 17-09-2020 12:47PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

At some point in time

How can you prove that's true now?

Do you understand what CFR is? You’re completely misunderstanding the statistic

TonyMaloney · 17-09-2020 12:47PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Scotland are in quite a similar situation to us despite their ostensibly different approach to managing covid.

Two weeks ago they applied local restrictions on the Glasgow and Clyde region in order to get to grips with the growth rate there which was getting out of hand.
Although Glasgow is quite a bit smaller than Dublin, all together there's about 1 million people in the wider region. Close enough to Dublin.
They also sought to specifically target transmission within the home with these restrictions.

Anyways, when the restrictions were imposed two weeks ago there was about 65 cases a day in the region. Yesterday they reported 105.
So they've slowed the doubling rate, but the virus is still clearly growing. Were they to lift the restrictions there is nothing to stop the virus taking off again.

So that's quite worrying. Two weeks in and they don't appear to be close to lifting restrictions.
What makes it even more worrying for us is that the restrictions applied are more akin to our phase 4 than phase 3 - with no visits to other households allowed.

So my pessimistic prediction is that the gov will apply phase 3 restrictions on Dublin soon, but it will have little to no affect. So after a couple of weeks they'll say we have to go to level 4. By then who knows what our figures will be like, but if Glasgow is anything to go by it will simply serve to slow the rate of growth.

I think we're in for a long, long unrewarding slog here in Dublin - that possibly ends with a stint in phase 5

112 cases reported in the Glasgow region this afternoon. Another increase.

290 in Scotland

robbiezero · 17-09-2020 12:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

ive the media centre stuffed full of box sets and the iptv set up for sport and the rest

tons of books on the kindle that ive always wanted to get round to

rowing machine bought from decathlon the last week.

recipes ive been looking to do

no commute. work my hours when i like.

Well for ya. Not everybody is in that boat.

podgeandrodge · 17-09-2020 12:50PM

So if we get cases back down from all the new restrictions, then open up and they start up again...are we not better off being a bit less hysterical about things.

17-09-2020 12:51PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

What misunderstanding?

HSE put in those stats

2500+ cases, 3 ICU

Why did they put those stat's in?

Report is only a rolling 14 day. ICU figures are more representative of cases in the previous 14 period. CFR in the report is actually irrelevant, as it is highly likely none of the 2500 cases in the reporting period have died yet, and is again more representative of the previous 2 to 4 weeks. You can only truly establish a CFR when all cases for the reporting period are either recovered or dead.

TonyMaloney · 17-09-2020 12:52PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

So if we get cases back down from all the new restrictions, then open up and they start up again...are we not better off being a bit less hysterical about things.

If you read my post above, harsher but similar restrictions were placed on Glasgow two weeks ago and have had negligible effect.

Cases are still growing steadily.

CiarraiManc · 17-09-2020 12:54PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Ah ffs

did I say anything untrue?

stephenjmcd · 17-09-2020 12:57PM

I can't see government going with this. Far reaching economic hit that goes well beyond Dublin. Targeting business sectors that aren't the cause, seems like an overreach that would be diluted before it got to cabinet.

Anyone that thinks a Dublin shutdown doesn't affect them would want to think again, it accounts for a large portion of the countries economy.

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1306556330422005760?s=19

Curious_Case · 17-09-2020 12:58PM

It's somewhat lazy to say "the government keep changing the recommendations so they mustn't know what they're doing"

Granted, their presentation is juvenile.

However, it's a cooking pot situation - the food needs to be cooked but the heat needs turning down EACH TIME the pot begins to boil over.

Kh1993 · 17-09-2020 12:59PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I can't see government going with this. Far reaching economic hit that goes well beyond Dublin. Targeting business sectors that aren't the cause, seems like an overreach that would be diluted before it got to cabinet.

Anyone that thinks a Dublin shutdown doesn't affect them would want to think again, it accounts for a large portion of the counties economy.

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1306556330422005760?s=19

Crazy. I thought we’d at least attempted to move away from this all or nothing attitude. All it is at this stage is punishment to people and businesses that have done everything right.

CiarraiManc · 17-09-2020 01:00PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I can't see government going with this. Far reaching economic hit that goes well beyond Dublin. Targeting business sectors that aren't the cause, seems like an overreach that would be diluted before it got to cabinet.

Anyone that thinks a Dublin shutdown doesn't affect them would want to think again, it accounts for a large portion of the counties economy.

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1306556330422005760?s=19

should've been done nationwide weeks ago. too little too late

BobbyMalone · 17-09-2020 01:02PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I can't see government going with this.

I hope not. I'd worry that this is what they've done in the past with leaking what's coming down the road.

17-09-2020 01:02PM

Dublin should go straight to level 4 with some other counties going to level 3.

17-09-2020 01:04PM

robbiezero wrote: »

Well for ya. Not everybody is in that boat.

well i know it. and those without that option have my sympathy and concern

so, without taking that one part of my post out of context, what part of my overall message of

"follow the guidelines, mind your own side of things as best you can and ignore the mob"

is adding to your burden?

because the people i am taking issue with are surely the ones putting anyone who has to travel for work at risk.

TonyMaloney · 17-09-2020 01:04PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I can't see government going with this. Far reaching economic hit that goes well beyond Dublin. Targeting business sectors that aren't the cause, seems like an overreach that would be diluted before it got to cabinet.

Anyone that thinks a Dublin shutdown doesn't affect them would want to think again, it accounts for a large portion of the counties economy.

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1306556330422005760?s=19

I can't see it getting passed the new subcommittees to the cabinet.

I do think it's coming eventually though, as level 3 (and a bit) is unlikely to have much impact. I'd rather go level 4 now while we have 100+ cases in Dublin than in two weeks or so when we have 200+.

This is getting me down

PmMeUrDogs · 17-09-2020 01:05PM

I sincerely hope we don't go to level 4. We need something done to control numbers, but I've already been told my job is in jeopardy, as with my colleagues, because the company are already up the swanney, they can't afford the loss another clamp down would bring. Worrying a little now!

KrustyUCC · 17-09-2020 01:05PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I can't see government going with this. Far reaching economic hit that goes well beyond Dublin. Targeting business sectors that aren't the cause, seems like an overreach that would be diluted before it got to cabinet.

Anyone that thinks a Dublin shutdown doesn't affect them would want to think again, it accounts for a large portion of the countries economy.

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1306556330422005760?s=19

Crazy

Maybe this is why the government are trying to sideline NPHET a bit

That's fine from a public health point of view but would be economic suicide

Xenji · 17-09-2020 01:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Dublin should go straight to level 4 with some other counties going to level 3.

Is there not a rule that there can only be two levels assigned throughout the State at any one time?

17-09-2020 01:07PM

Dublin should go straight to level 4 with some other counties going to level 3.

bb1234567 · 17-09-2020 01:07PM

/\/ollog wrote: »

You can do push-ups are home and jog on roads.

People seem to be pulling the mental health excuse more lately.

To be fair, there are many reasons why gyms are so popular and pushups at home are not. People enjoying doing things together, are encouraged by others partaking in activites with them, even if not necessarily directly interacting with one another. Just like you could read a book at home but people like libraries, etc.

17-09-2020 01:09PM

Xenji wrote: »

Is there not a rule that there can only be two levels assigned throughout the State at any one time?

Not sure what you mean?

bb1234567 · 17-09-2020 01:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Death projections total by end of 2020 per worldometer. 1982 total. Less than 200 deaths between now and year end. Not all that bad if true.

I do wonder how worldometer calculates those projections though, is there much substance to them or just random objective figures about the population plugged in without any knowledge of the culture or governance or healthcare of the region in question having any impact on the prediction. Some countries on there have massive projections,worldometers projects over 60,000 deaths in Spain by january, that seems a lot bigger than I would have expected.

Curious_Case · 17-09-2020 01:10PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

That's exactly what's happened. Tony knew it we all knew it. There's no way back Government are going with the slow immunity strategy, masks are all for show so they can pit people against each other.

And so, the peoples of the land were divided into two tribes --

The "Maskwas", derived from the phrase "Mask Wearers"
&
The "Namasks", derived from the phrase "No Masks"

Xenji · 17-09-2020 01:11PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Not sure what you mean?

There is an important rider to this. There can only be two levels assigned throughout the State at any one time. So the idea of different counties having more than two different levels will not apply. If part of the State is at Level Two, and part at Level Three, no part of the State will have either Level Four or Level One.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/covid-19-mid-term-plan-what-s-in-the-government-strategy-1.4352703

FlubberJones · 17-09-2020 01:12PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

To be fair, there are many reasons why gyms are so popular and pushups at home are not. People enjoying doing things together, are encouraged by others partaking in activites with them, even if not necessarily directly interacting with one another. Just like you could read a book at home but people like libraries, etc.

I use the gym on my own and have rarely trained with someone... the gym is a MASSIVE difference to training at home with weights or bands or whatever. I'm over the moon to be back in there and will HATE it if we go backwards again, it will be worse for me.
I see people training around me and acknowledge them but it's just me and my in ear headphones... 100% enjoying it.

Thierry12 · 17-09-2020 01:12PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Report is only a rolling 14 day. ICU figures are more representative of cases in the previous 14 period. CFR in the report is actually irrelevant, as it is highly likely none of the 2500 cases in the reporting period have died yet, and is again more representative of the previous 2 to 4 weeks. You can only truly establish a CFR when all cases for the reporting period are either recovered or dead.

Why do they include that data in the report then if it's irrelevant?

eagle eye · 17-09-2020 01:13PM

People mentioning the economy as the reason not to shut down.
It's sad when money is more important than the health of the nation.

caveat emptor · 17-09-2020 01:14PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I can't see government going with this. Far reaching economic hit that goes well beyond Dublin. Targeting business sectors that aren't the cause, seems like an overreach that would be diluted before it got to cabinet.

Anyone that thinks a Dublin shutdown doesn't affect them would want to think again, it accounts for a large portion of the countries economy.

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1306556330422005760?s=19

Great so only essential shops but we’ll be sending our little lovelies into mingle in a daily basis.

That’ll stop f all.

17-09-2020 01:16PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Great so only essential shops but we’ll be sending our little lovelies into mingle in a daily basis.

That’ll stop f all.

Children don't spread.

Give one example in ireland where a child spread it to another child or an adult.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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