Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

drunkmonkey · 17-09-2020 10:46AM

petes wrote: »

Are you first in the queue to get it so?

Had it late last year, might know for definite soon, friend getting the antibodie test had it at same time, wasn't flu and wasn't a cold, close contact ended up in hospital, they were unable to find the cause, Blows the crap out of Professor Nolan's charts if proven. Chart should start in November not February.

caveat emptor · 17-09-2020 10:48AM

Wuhan's first international flight resumes.

https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1306525803220471808?s=20

Icantthinkof1 · 17-09-2020 10:48AM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Had it late last year, might know for definite soon, friend getting the antibodie test had it at same time, wasn't flu and wasn't a cold, close contact ended up in hospital, they were unable to find the cause, Blows the crap out of Professor Nolan's charts if proven. Chart should start in November not February.

If you and your friend had it late last year I wouldn’t be holding out too much hope that s/he would still have antibodies.

drunkmonkey · 17-09-2020 10:52AM

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

If you and your friend had it late last year I wouldn’t be holding out too much hope that s/he would still have antibodies.

Yea that's what I think as well. It's a bit late in the day for the doctors to be looking backwards.

seamus · 17-09-2020 10:53AM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

eh yeah, but it's a massive increase. Shows significant growth.

It's a spike, the nature of their reporting.

Yes, it is an increase, correlating with the increase in cases. But it's not time for people to crack eachother's heads open. In context, far fewer people are dying in Spain despite the case numbers hitting record highs.

And that's in line with the rest of Europe; we're seeing huge growth in case numbers, and a much smaller growth in deaths.

Nobody likes to admit it, but a certain number of deaths here is acceptable, because they're unavoidable. We just need to not be negligent or ignorant of the risks, while we accept the reality that cases and deaths will increase as we move towards finding a balance between going on with our lives and keeping the virus at bay.

There is no other way forward.

An increase in deaths, even a spike, is not a cause for panic. Just like a sudden drop in deaths back in May was not yet a cause for celebration.

eagle eye wrote: »

This is because we are now protecting those who are more susceptible to serious illness.
People are mistaking the lower death numbers as the virus weakening but that's not the case, it's that most that are getting it now are healthier.

It's very important that we keep reiterating this message. Statistically the virus is less deadly than we first believed it to be; probably far less deadly; but it hasn't actually changed and the vulnerable just as vulnerable as they always have been.

Deenie78 · 17-09-2020 10:53AM

Thanks for the great post Seamus - you're so right! I took 48 hours off social media last weekend (it was surprisingly tough!) but felt 100% better after it. I had to text my brother to ask for the daily numbers (my only covid related fix) rather than start checking for the "beer count" on here from 2pm

I've inched back during this week but will definitely be doing the same this weekend.

Boggles · 17-09-2020 10:54AM

seamus wrote: »

Believe it or not, 200+ deaths in Spain yesterday isn't at all contradictory to that overall graph. At the height of it, Spain was registering 500+ deaths a day for 4 weeks. At one stage they nearly hit 1,000 dead in a single day.

Their new case rate is the same as back in March/April, but even 200 deaths a day is a considerably lower death rate.

No it isn't.

Their rate of detection today is a far more accurately reflection of actual infections , where March / April was far less accurate.

The Serological surveys they conducted (proper ones) suggest for every case they were detecting they missed out on 8/9 back in March / April.

So when people are looking at both sides of the graph, they need to mentally increase the left side substantially to get a truer reflection of comparison.

JP Liz V1 · 17-09-2020 11:03AM

castletownman wrote: »

Does dental work (specifically teeth cleaning) count as an essential journey provided Stage Three comes into effect the weekend?

I would think yes for a dentist appointment

CiarraiManc · 17-09-2020 11:04AM

OwenM wrote: »

I think some calm and a sense of perspective is needed, an awful lot of fearmongering in the media and social media in the last few days. We are not all going to die in the next few weeks, we need to learn to live with this and that means not locking down the country because somebody might die, people die every day.

The one thing not being talked about is the prospect that there might never be a vaccine, it's a reality and it's not being planned for. Worse than that we will never IMO arrive at a point where we accept that and spend years destroying the mental health and economy of the country.

Here's a perspective that might make people feel a bit better. France, Spain and the UK combined have had more cases in the last 6 weeks than all of March, April and May but a tiny fraction of the deaths.

My source is the WHO Europe region website: https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ead3c6475654481ca51c248d52ab9c61

I don't believe there's going to be a vaccine, at least not for the next few years. We should have used being an island to our advantage like Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan and locked down both internally and externally 100%

Eod100 · 17-09-2020 11:07AM

Hi folks, curious on some information if anyone who might have been in similar situation knows and could help. Someone I know has been referred for a covid test. I would have been in close contact with them lately and so took time off work to be extra cautious. I rang my GP who advise I should restrict my movements until their results. On the call I asked for a letter for my work covering me for being out. I've since been asked for a 25e to pay for this. I thought this should be included in original covid consultation. Would that be the case? Or is it at the discretion of individual GPs? Rang HSE helpline who didn't really know and said it might be an admin fee at gp's discretion.

It's not a huge amount of money, just feel I'm being penalised for doing the right thing.

stephenjmcd · 17-09-2020 11:11AM

Level 3.25, you really couldn't make any of this up
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1306534984505872384?s=19

dalyboy · 17-09-2020 11:13AM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

I don't believe there's going to be a vaccine, at least not for the next few years. We should have used being an island to our advantage like Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan and locked down both internally and externally 100%

Locked down for 3-5 years ?
So certain death by starvation brought on by economic suicide is preferable to death by a virus with a CFR of 0.3% ?
Yeah makes loads of sense .... sure .. but then again we don’t live in a monty python movie.

Longing · 17-09-2020 11:14AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Level 3.25, you really couldn't make any of this up
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1306534984505872384?s=19

You are joking.

Edit: Incredible

TonyMaloney · 17-09-2020 11:14AM

Scotland are in quite a similar situation to us despite their ostensibly different approach to managing covid.

Two weeks ago they applied local restrictions on the Glasgow and Clyde region in order to get to grips with the growth rate there which was getting out of hand.
Although Glasgow is quite a bit smaller than Dublin, all together there's about 1 million people in the wider region. Close enough to Dublin.
They also sought to specifically target transmission within the home with these restrictions.

Anyways, when the restrictions were imposed two weeks ago there was about 65 cases a day in the region. Yesterday they reported 105.
So they've slowed the doubling rate, but the virus is still clearly growing. Were they to lift the restrictions there is nothing to stop the virus taking off again.

So that's quite worrying. Two weeks in and they don't appear to be close to lifting restrictions.
What makes it even more worrying for us is that the restrictions applied are more akin to our phase 4 than phase 3 - with no visits to other households allowed.

So my pessimistic prediction is that the gov will apply phase 3 restrictions on Dublin soon, but it will have little to no affect. So after a couple of weeks they'll say we have to go to level 4. By then who knows what our figures will be like, but if Glasgow is anything to go by it will simply serve to slow the rate of growth.

I think we're in for a long, long unrewarding slog here in Dublin - that possibly ends with a stint in phase 5

alentejo · 17-09-2020 11:17AM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Scotland are in quite a similar situation to us despite their ostensibly different approach to managing covid.

Two weeks ago they applied local restrictions on the Glasgow and Clyde region in order to get to grips with the growth rate there which was getting out of hand.
Although Glasgow is quite a bit smaller than Dublin, all together there's about 1 million people in the wider region. Close enough to Dublin.
They also sought to specifically target transmission within the home with these restrictions.

Anyways, when the restrictions were imposed two weeks ago there was about 65 cases a day in the region. Yesterday they reported 105.
So they've slowed the doubling rate, but the virus is still clearly growing. Were they to lift the restrictions there is nothing to stop the virus taking off again.

So that's quite worrying. Two weeks in and they don't appear to be close to lifting restrictions.
What makes it even more worrying for us is that the restrictions applied are more akin to our phase 4 than phase 3 - with no visits to other households allowed.

So my pessimistic prediction is that the gov will apply phase 3 restrictions on Dublin soon, but it will have little to no affect. So after a couple of weeks they'll say we have to go to level 4. By then who knows what our figures will be like, but if Glasgow is anything to go by it will simply serve to slow the rate of growth.

I think we're in for a long, long unrewarding slog here in Dublin - that possibly ends with a stint in phase 5

How about going to phase 5 directly, open up for December and back to phase 5 in January!

dalyboy · 17-09-2020 11:17AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Level 3.25, you really couldn't make any of this up
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1306534984505872384?s=19

It’s the exact converse to the original idea of this “clear and simple” 9 month plan. It really feels like the government are purposely trolling the citizens of this country.

Busi_Girl08 · 17-09-2020 11:18AM

3 days in and they've pissed around with the "very simple" 5 level roadmap twice already. How long before it's done away with completely because they're making it very clear that it's of no use now.

Sweet.Science · 17-09-2020 11:20AM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

I don't believe there's going to be a vaccine, at least not for the next few years. We should have used being an island to our advantage like Australia and New Zealand and Taiwan and locked down both internally and externally 100%

This really has to stop . There will be a vaccine quite soon.

stephenjmcd · 17-09-2020 11:20AM

dalyboy wrote: »

It’s the exact converse to the original idea of this “clear and simple” 9 month plan. It really feels like the government are purposely trolling the citizens of this country.

But when asked every day oh its very clear we have 5 levels.

Even the PR company have washed their hands of this mess now

Wolf359f · 17-09-2020 11:20AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Level 3.25, you really couldn't make any of this up
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1306534984505872384?s=19

No surprise really, level 3 allows for pint pubs to open, so it has to be level 3.5!
Total joke at this stage. They knew before they published the 5/7 point plan that Dublin was an issue, they chose to ignore that.
They could have easily placed the rest of the country at level 2 and announced that Dublin stays as is (assigned no level) and will be assigned one when cases stabilise etc...

Boggles · 17-09-2020 11:21AM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Two weeks ago they applied local restrictions on the Glasgow and Clyde region in order to get to grips with the growth rate there which was getting out of hand.

Ah yeah, but Glasgow don't have a brand new "civil service committee" or 5 point framework with infinite decimal variations.

Be grand shure.

17-09-2020 11:21AM

dalyboy wrote: »

Locked down for 3-5 years ?
So certain death by starvation brought on by economic suicide is preferable to death by a virus with a CFR of 0.3% ?
Yeah makes loads of sense .... sure .. but then again we don’t live in a monty python movie.

did anyone say total lockdown for 3-5 years?

how many people have starved in ireland or any modern country as a result of covid so far?

what is going on with people's perspective here?

17-09-2020 11:22AM

For what it's worth I'm I (alone) having coffee in Dundrum SC and just observing a couple of clusters of well-spoken women, in late 30/early 40s speaking together very closely, mothers' morning coffee meetings. They don't appear to have any awareness of the concept of physical distancing. I'm wondering if this is one of the significant ways the virus is spreading household to household, as I'm seeing mothers gather in little groups everywhere after leaving their kiddies off to school.

Tij da feen · 17-09-2020 11:22AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

No surprise really, level 3 allows for pint pubs to open, so it has to be level 3.5!
Total joke at this stage. They knew before they published the 5/7 point plan that Dublin was an issue, they chose to ignore that.
They could have easily placed the rest of the country at level 2 and announced that Dublin stays as is (assigned no level) and will be assigned one when cases stabilise etc...

Or, since there's evidently a use case for it, should've had these restrictions are part of the levels.

AlmightyCushion · 17-09-2020 11:24AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Level 3.25, you really couldn't make any of this up
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1306534984505872384?s=19

We're not even at 2 and a bit. That would suggest we're somewhere at 2 and taking some restrictions from level 3 whereas we're at level 2 and taking some restrictions from levels 3 and 5.

Non solum non ambulabit · 17-09-2020 11:24AM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

We should have used being an island to our advantage.... and locked down both internally and externally 100%

Comedy gold - 100% external and internal lockdown

By the way the island of Ireland is 2 countries and our country is not an island

MerlinSouthDub · 17-09-2020 11:24AM

dalyboy wrote: »

It’s the exact converse to the original idea of this “clear and simple” 9 month plan. It really feels like the government are purposely trolling the citizens of this country.

The 3.25 thing for Dublin is coming from NPHET, not the government. It does feel that Tony Holohan has been a big loss to NPHET, they seem to be all at sea and lack the same clarity of thought as when Tony was the boss. The government is then being handed advice which hasn't been properly thought through by NPHET.

TonyMaloney · 17-09-2020 11:25AM

alentejo wrote: »

How about going to phase 5 directly, open up for December and back to phase 5 in January!

I assume you mean back to phase 1 or 2 in Jan?

Yeah, obviously that would be preferable to messing around with ineffectual restrictions before eventually doing what's required from a much worse position.

I don't think there's any appetite for it though. Hopefully the same restrictions here will somehow have a bigger impact.

drunkmonkey · 17-09-2020 11:25AM

Longing wrote: »

You are joking.

Edit: Incredible

Pubs are open in level 3, they may just put Dublin in level 4 and let them work their way back down.

harr · 17-09-2020 11:26AM

Busi_Girl08 wrote: »

3 days in and they've pissed around with the "very simple" 5 level roadmap twice already. How long before it's done away with completely because they're making it very clear that it's of no use now.

This exactly and this is why people won’t take it seriously adding bits and taking bits away. It’s a level 3 lockdown or a level 4 no in between numbers. PR is just a disaster the last month or so. If the people in government are confused how are the average person supposed to understand what’s going on..
To many numbers being bounced about in relation to gatherings and what’s allowed where and when.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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