Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

podgeandrodge · 16-09-2020 02:24PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Our man never came back down the mountain? :eek:

wouldn't be surprised if they realised he was giving out Govt official comms before they had signed off on them and got disciplined!

I for one will be glad not to read about 'beers' everyday, like hearing the same bad joke over and over again.

GooglePlus · 16-09-2020 02:25PM

mloc123 wrote: »

Our man never came back down the mountain? :eek:

The oracle retreats to the mountains 4 times a year to find his zen and take Ayahuasca.

ACitizenErased · 16-09-2020 02:26PM

272 positive swabs today from 12,241 tests

ACitizenErased · 16-09-2020 02:26PM

As of today we have officially crossed 1 million tests

Non solum non ambulabit · 16-09-2020 02:26PM

Benimar wrote: »

Potentially as many as 70

Could be pushing 300 today so.

Martina1991 · 16-09-2020 02:27PM

Benimar wrote: »

272 positives on 12,241 tests - positivity rate of 2.22%

Just passed 1,000,000 tests completed as well.

s1ippy · 16-09-2020 02:30PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Genuine question, what would you do to stop it. Another lockdown, its not viable and you won't get people to buy into it so what would you do.

I think many people in Dublin would buy in to tighter restrictions on travel and more impetus to work from home than is currently required.

If the rest of the country starts to catch up, then I'm sure the reasonably minded public there would also restrict their movements.

Working from home wherever possible needs to be facilitated and encouraged.

As for pubs, bring in the same level of stricture required for gastropubs and keep good records. Personally I won't be going to them, but if people can adhere to the rules and they turn out not to be a big source of spread (not just that we're not tracing enough) then leave them open.

The above all has minimal economic impact, but people are able to make the choices they need to in order to avoid getting this.

Oh and properly facilitate children who can't attend school for various reasons so that parents of at risk families can actually keep them out. That would reduce class sizes. Would have been helpful a month ago to have that sorted but we're throwing out ideas and that would have been a great one.

smellyoldboot · 16-09-2020 02:30PM

300+ with 175+ of those in Dublin.

16-09-2020 02:32PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Just passed 1,000,000 tests completed as well.

How many of them did your lab see Martina.

Fair play to all involved by the way. A lot of criticism is levelled at testing capacity, but i don't think many appreciate the effort required to put something like this in place. From procurement of supplies, manning the test centre, co-ordination of samples, analysts, reviewers, quality control, maintenance of equipment etc. etc. etc.

The Nal · 16-09-2020 02:32PM

smellyoldboot wrote: »

300+ with 175+ of those in Dublin.

Boggles · 16-09-2020 02:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

For example, in the initial reopening, hardware stores were permitted to re-open, but homeware stores were not. This had the situation where some large hardware/ homeware stores were required to close off some of their floor space, unnecessarily restricting space in a large, relatively safe building, and creating artificial bottle necks in the stores. In principal, hardware - essential, homeware not, fine, but it had practical, potentially counter productive consequences for those managing these restrictions on the ground that would be immediately apparent to the experts in that area.

I remember the press conference well, 15 questions about the difference homeware and hardware. :rolleyes:

I was in several hardware stores the week they were open, no where did I see any section closed off.

I was in no homeware stores because these were all closed.

Where did all this actually happen?

spookwoman · 16-09-2020 02:34PM

Maybe someone can make some sense from these numbers on how they make up the confirmed numbers
Date|Tested Positive|Briefing Positive
10/09/2020|122|196
11/9/2020|227|211
12/9/2020|250|159
13/09/2020|-|255
14/09/2020|476|208
15/09/2020|310|357
16/09/2020|272|

MerlinSouthDub · 16-09-2020 02:34PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

272 positive swabs today from 12,241 tests

Well, it's stabilizing a bit maybe?

Goldengirl · 16-09-2020 02:34PM

marno21 wrote: »

This isn’t throwing NPHET under the bus. It’s him saying that the Government will now take a balanced approach to handling the virus with the public health advice being weighted against economic and sociological considerations.

Something I and others have been arguing in favour of on this forum for months. Locking the country down until the vaccine arrives is a widely held view among public health circles. It fails to take into account the economic and sociological destruction it would cause. Public health advice needs to be reprofiled for a world with economic and social constraints. It’s the only way through this unfortunate mess.

Yes.

What you are saying is the government need to consider how many deaths the public will accept, and tailor their plans accordingly.

This was said back in April by the anonymous medical consultant on boards .
A lot were shocked , but looks like that is what is going to be facing us now in the next few months .

Ll31 · 16-09-2020 02:34PM

is_that_so wrote: »

TCD are also setting up their own test centre.

That seems positive -hope everyone gets some in person on campus experience. Online is in general a hugely inferior experience for lots of reasons

ninebeanrows · 16-09-2020 02:35PM

That is a lot of tests.

Id love to see the test per population across the counties.

Id say there is much more tests per head of population in Dublin as compared to other counties.

Test more find more.

I'd be suspect of any differential between the counties until I see those figures.

Boggles · 16-09-2020 02:36PM

polesheep wrote: »

A certain level of infection among older people will be acceptable as we move on.

What's the level?

Fitty?

stephenjmcd · 16-09-2020 02:36PM

Ll31 wrote: »

I think therell be hardly anyone on campus- certainly some of tcd timetables seem to be all online this semester for some years..

My brother in DIT got his timetable, 1 in person day in the college every 3 weeks. The rest online

16-09-2020 02:37PM

Benimar wrote: »

272 positives on 12,241 tests - positivity rate of 2.22%

Fair to say just about everything is trending in the wrong direction, quite quickly at this point.

MerlinSouthDub · 16-09-2020 02:37PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes.
What you are saying is the government need to consider how many deaths the public will accept, and tailor their plans accordingly.

This was said back in April by the anonymous medical consultant on boards .
A lot were shocked , but looks like that is what is going to be facing us now in the next few months .

That is the way it's going, not just here but everywhere in Europe really. I think governments are stumbling along in the hope that a vaccine/treatment will come along in the next few months.

hmmm · 16-09-2020 02:44PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes.
What you are saying is the government need to consider how many deaths the public will accept, and tailor their plans accordingly.

This was said back in April by the anonymous medical consultant on boards .
A lot were shocked , but looks like that is what is going to be facing us now in the next few months .

Wasn't this always the case once we didn't go for a zero-Covid approach? It was about managing infection without letting the hospitals become overwhelmed (not "herd immunity", long-term flattening of the curve). It's the difference between going down a steep hill by tapping the brakes and not braking at all.

We know from experience in other countries that we can keep the fatality rate low if hospitals have space and people get good care. But if we run out of hospital beds then the fatality rate will increase (this was the original problem back in Wuhan).

Goldengirl · 16-09-2020 02:44PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Ronan is out of the loop now, they have him making the teas and coffees.

Stephen Donnelly's nanny

GooglePlus · 16-09-2020 02:45PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Maybe someone can make some sense from these numbers on how they make up the confirmed numbers
Date|Tested Positive|Briefing Positive
10/09/2020|122|196
11/9/2020|227|211
12/9/2020|250|159
13/09/2020|-|255
14/09/2020|476|208
15/09/2020|310|357
16/09/2020|272|

+271 in the difference on positive swabs but as someone mentioned before, positive swabs include retests in hospital right?

Hard to know without knowing unique cases.

polesheep · 16-09-2020 02:45PM

Boggles wrote: »

What's the level?

Fitty?

It won't be static. You can scream and bang your fists off the floor if you like, but the reality is that the world is moving on again. With or without a vaccine.

Benimar · 16-09-2020 02:46PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Maybe someone can make some sense from these numbers on how they make up the confirmed numbers
Date|Tested Positive|Briefing Positive
10/09/2020|122|196
11/9/2020|227|211
12/9/2020|250|159
13/09/2020|-|255
14/09/2020|476|208
15/09/2020|310|357
16/09/2020|272|

I have no idea why they vary by day, but I'm pretty sure the totals were the same once last Thursdays (10th) figures were announced. There was a variance of 73 since then (Tested Positive higher) up to yesterday.

polesheep · 16-09-2020 02:46PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

That is the way it's going, not just here but everywhere in Europe really. I think governments are stumbling along in the hope that a vaccine/treatment will come along in the next few months.

The herd moves on. Always.

Arghus · 16-09-2020 02:48PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/no-guarantee-covid-19-vaccine-will-be-found-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4356313

In my opinion Michael Ryan loses credibility with statements like this. What audience is he playing to here?

A number of vaccines are in very late stage of development (Phase 3) and have been be proven to produce an antibody response.

How does he lose credibility to state something that is a fact? There is no guarantee. What he is saying is true. Not credible? He wouldn't be credible if he didn't acknowledge this!

Now, it's looking encouraging and the signs there will, hopefully, be one or more - but the vaccines haven't been developed and are still in trials: it's not science fiction to point out that they could fail - drugs can fail at the very last hurdle, it happens.

Or they may not work as well as they are supposed to - something that provides antibody response may still not provide sufficient immunity, or the immunity could be short term, or there may be issues with scalability in production and availability. These are all legitimate concerns about any potential vaccine. The scenario where a vaccine immediately changes the game, is widely effective and widely available is not guaranteed - to point that out is just stating the obvious.

Martina1991 · 16-09-2020 02:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How many of them did your lab see Martina.

Fair play to all involved by the way. A lot of criticism is levelled at testing capacity, but i don't think many appreciate the effort required to put something like this in place. From procurement of supplies, manning the test centre, co-ordination of samples, analysts, reviewers, quality control, maintenance of equipment etc. etc. etc.

Oh i have no idea on numbers to date.
For a number of weeks the NVRL were the only lab performing tests until others were able to secure equipment, supplies and validate their assays.

From March to about June GPs were quieter, surgeries and outpatient clinics were postponed so Covid was the main focus. Now that everything is back and running full tilt, the pressure has only increased with bigger postponed workloads on top of increased Covid testing. People often forget about samples from GPs, but thats the vast majority of our workload.

Goldengirl · 16-09-2020 02:51PM

JDD wrote: »

I think I was probably one of the posters who was optimistic in July. I would have been surprised and concerned if you told me that the numbers testing positive had reached 200 a day or more by September, though I understood that as the economy opened, positive numbers had to go up.

Then again, I was comparing the circumstances from April and using that as my comparison point. We all knew that there were way more infections in April than were being picked up by testing, because of our restrictive testing criteria.

We were carrying out 40,000 tests per week back then, and catching 800 a day at the height of it. We are now carrying out approx 80,000 test per week. If we were doing that in April we'd likely have picked up 1600 cases a day, especially given the restrictive criteria to get a test.

Of course, we got those infection figures way down to 10 or so a day in June, but that was only after a very strict lockdown with schools being closed. Even Level 5 on the new plan doesn't envisage that level of lockdown. So at the very least we are probably going to have to accept that there will be 50 or so infections every day even under Level 5.

Level 5 can only be deployed very occasionally. So what level of infections per day - assuming testing capacity stays the same - can we be comfortable with while imposing the lowest possible level of restrictions?

Of course this is nuanced. We can accept a higher level of infections in the young population. It's when it spreads to the older population that the issues arise. So you might be comfortable with 500 new infections a day where 70% of the infections are in under 45s, whereas you might only be comfortable with 300 a day where 70% are in over 65s. Looking at the bald numbers without context is useless. I assume NPHET are doing this.

I'm not entirely sure what level I am comfortable at. But I do know that my priorities are a) that the health system is not overrun, to the point that people are dying when they shouldn't if they had the right treatment and b) a reasonable amount of restrictions remain in place to ensure we do not have a massively divergent number of deaths in comparison to our EU counterparts but that c) those restrictions are kept at a minimum to achieve the objectives at a) and b) at all times.

This + 1
Great post !
Just one point ..testing criteria is less restrictive now than it was , but I think you mean that anyone with a sniffle could get a test in the summer ?

Widdensushi · 16-09-2020 02:54PM

polesheep wrote: »

The herd moves on. Always.

Flock

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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