Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

I think what we're now seeing (same in France and in Spain, only they're further ahead) is a truer picture of the spread of this virus in the population .

When we only tested people with serious symptoms in March our case numbers were based on that. And our hospitalisation/ICU numbers and the rest of it too. We're now casting with much wider net. The test parameters are different and of course so are the results.

And the first thing that we are noticing is that the assumed hospitalisation and ICU rates of 15% and 5% - only repeated by the HSE yesterday - are of course not true. With the level of testing we're doing at the moment it looks more like 1.5% for hospitalisation and 0.02% or so for ICU admissions. And thats probably still not anywhere near the truth. It will take years of data collection to settle on more solid numbers.

Let me illustrate what I mean. And please just stay with it, the numbers are just for illustration, not claiming THESE are the numbers.

Lets say out of a 5000 people who had been exposed to the virus - 5000 potential positives - 100 have noticeable symptoms and out of those 100 people with symptoms 15 have symptoms so bad they need to go to a hospital.
In March we would have only tested those 100. And we would have arrived at that hospitalisation rate of 15%. Makes sense right? 100 cases and 15 in hospital. 15%.

Now that we're testing tracing contacts and that we're testing randomly we're catching a lot more of the other 4900 people as positives. Lets say with the wider testing we're now catching 1000 instead of 100. So of course we're noticing that hospitalisation rate isn't 15% but more like 1.5%. And the same goes for ICU admission rate and ultimately fatality rates.

The different test parameters give us a truer picture of the severity of this virus.

Which is not the same as saying that no one will die from it anymore or that this thing 'has weakened' or 'is over'. We're simply seeing it better. And we still haven't seen the total picture. Could easily be divide by another 2 or 5 or 10.

And I guess what people are saying is that now that we have better information we must adjust our threat assessment of the virus accordingly.

The sticky situation media and politicians find themselves in is how to communicate this to the people without becoming 'Trump' and without becoming unelectable. After all they were the same people who were telling us for months this is the deadliest thing ever and tens or hundreds of thousands might die. And they burnt billions and wrecked entire economies in the process. So they cant just turn around and say 'oops' we got it wrong, sorry about that. They need to find a way to come off it without losing face and keep up that narrative of 'there was no alternative'. Sadly this will keep us in that limbo for much longer and burn further billions.

Shouldnt be that difficult to say hey were know more now and its not as bad as we thought, but it seems it is.

Gruffalox wrote: »

Places that service office workers with coffees to go and sandwiches should not be guaranteed an income. We will significantly increase traffic, pollution, commuting stress, hours away from family etc when it has been clearly shown that working from home is an absolutely viable option for many, just so deli counters and cafes can survive. This is dumb.

The big obstacle to keeping people from continuing to work from home isn't a desire to save these small businesses. They are just a convenient excuse. The issue is far more with the fact that a lot of very wealthy groups and organisations have their wealth tied up in commercial property. If everyone who viably can work from home does work from home, that property loses massive amounts of it's value. It's why someone like Alan Sugar has this week been espousing how important it is to the economy and people's mental health to go back to working in the office. He wants his commercial property investments to retain their value.

Keep in mind that this isn't finalised and as it says alot of the limits that are suggested on outdoor events for example may still be increased before the plan is published.

Looks like schools will remain open no matter what & pubs and restaurants open from levels one through to 3. While we'll all be encouraged to return to our workplaces.

Sport events
"There will be exemptions for sporting events where between 400 and 500 people can attend, subject to a venue having a capacity of at least 5,000. Ministers are this weekend pushing to increase the limits on those attending outdoor sporting events, which have been behind closed doors in recent weeks. But the current plan as drafted creates the possibility that only a few hundred people could be allowed to attend the All-Ireland finals in Croke Park in December".

Further on,
"Pubs and restaurants will be closed in the upper levels of the plan, but remain open at levels one, two and three.

A government source stressed that under the plan the situation whereby so-called 'wet' pubs have been closed since March while all other businesses have been allowed to reopen will not happen.

"If it is a case of businesses being restricted or closed it will be all businesses," they said. "Specific sectors won't be pulled out."

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/the-five-level-living-with-covid-plan-aimed-at-keeping-schools-open-in-all-phases-39526234.html

Onesea wrote: »

Didn't more die from seasonal flu in 2000 and year 2018? There was a doctor reporting on this a week ago, he also said having a soft flu 2019 season lended a hand to the increased figures we have in 2020

...but we dont know the long term effects of this thing, its ignorant to just suggest its a cold!

Onesea wrote: »

It isn't killing as many now, that's one indicator either way a great positive.
I seen a post where aerlingus cabin crew cant feed their kids.From them two points you can see what's happening and what will happen in the near future.

I met a friend two days ago. I haven't seen him since March. Since the last time we spoke his girlfriend of 5 years uped and left him. Then shortly after that he caught c19, into hospital on oxygen for one week,he sleped for 3 days straight and he said all the old people in the ward around him died.


He even thinks the world needs to get back to normal, even if this was a more deadly disease I would still be against lockdown. It doesn't work. We can't control nature or death, we can't wait for medicine.

your friend probably needs some counselling, to get through this difficult time for him, it ll be some time before things go back to normal, if ever, e aware, mental health services are currently buckling, and its not even peak season yet!

thankfully the virus is losing its viciousness, but....

Onesea wrote: »

Jesus wept.

I have seen the depths of the Norwegian health system, and the Irish health system. (risky surgery) on a younger family member.

Ireland is as good as here. In every way bar fast access into the system.

One consultant in Dublin told me. Our hospitals don't look as nice from the outside, but I can assure you we are as good as any at what we do.

debatable of course, but i know Irish living in sweden, and swedes themselves, all claiming the Swedish system is far superior

Wanderer78 wrote: »

your friend probably needs some counselling, to get through this difficult time for him, it ll be some time before things go back to normal, if ever, e aware, mental health services are currently buckling, and its not even peak season yet!

thankfully the virus is losing its viciousness, but....

Maybe the friend has Stockholm syndrome?