Is it time for a Dublin lockdown?

weldoninhio · 10-09-2020 8:02am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Is that right doc!

I don’t need to be a doctor to read and see for myself.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1

https://mises.org/wire/do-lockdowns-work-mounting-evidence-says-no

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-24/disappointment-as-evidence-coronavirus-lockdown-is-working-in-europe-fails-to-prevail

_Kaiser_ · 10-09-2020 8:04am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Is that right doc!

It is.. Think about it.

We lock down the country again. This time we actually close the airports and ports and the border with NI too - grand! (well ignoring the disastrous effects on families, business, employment, trade and essential supply chains for a minute. There's probably some legal/international law issues there too but let's ignore that)

After a few weeks we get Covid spread to zero. A few weeks later we're confident we've beaten it.

Now what? The rest of Europe and the world didn't lock down and still has new cases daily but we do business with lots of these places, rely on their tourists for our hospitality sector, and lots of people here have family in these places. Do we just lock down until everywhere gets to zero too?

This is why lockdown is nonsense. It's impractical domestically (even regionally) and it solves nothing in the long term.

emo72 · 10-09-2020 8:06am

Lock downs are pointless unless you seal yourself off from the rest of the world. It's only pause. You will always end back at the beginning again. Insanity.

micks_address · 10-09-2020 8:07am

I'd say strong chance this evening they will close restaurants and bars and cinemas for two weeks and tell households not to mix at all. Schools etc obvious exceptions..

copeyhagen · 10-09-2020 8:15am

micks_address wrote: »

I'd say strong chance this evening they will close restaurants and bars and cinemas for two weeks and tell households not to mix at all. Schools etc obvious exceptions..

not a chance..hopefully.

micks_address · 10-09-2020 8:25am

copeyhagen wrote: »

not a chance..hopefully.

Leo's noises last night pretty much set it up..it's the way it goes..yeah we might need restrictions, things bad, yep nephet meeting..then restrictions..I'd be amazed if there isn't some level of announcement re dublin this evening

copeyhagen · 10-09-2020 8:41am

micks_address wrote: »

Leo's noises last night pretty much set it up..it's the way it goes..yeah we might need restrictions, things bad, yep nephet meeting..then restrictions..I'd be amazed if there isn't some level of announcement re dublin this evening

they will probably go after the house gatherings i'd imagine

micks_address · 10-09-2020 8:58am

copeyhagen wrote: »

they will probably go after the house gatherings i'd imagine

Hard to do much there. Lot of talk last night at the conference about how the cases are getting into households.. potentially from attending social events at bars and restaurants etc for food..

wadacrack · 10-09-2020 9:01am

copeyhagen wrote: »

not a chance..hopefully.

Their will be some restrictions obviously. Households restrictions likely to implemented. Situation stable in most counties, would be unfair if they didnt try and stabilize the transmission in the problem area

micks_address · 10-09-2020 9:04am

wadacrack wrote: »

Their will be some restrictions obviously. Households restrictions likely to implemented. Situation stable in most counties, would be unfair if they didnt try and stabilize the transmission in the problem area

Yeah I mean you can't have one rule for dublin and another for the rest of the country

Wanderer78 · 10-09-2020 9:09am

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

It is.. Think about it.

We lock down the country again. This time we actually close the airports and ports and the border with NI too - grand! (well ignoring the disastrous effects on families, business, employment, trade and essential supply chains for a minute. There's probably some legal/international law issues there too but let's ignore that)

After a few weeks we get Covid spread to zero. A few weeks later we're confident we've beaten it.

Now what? The rest of Europe and the world didn't lock down and still has new cases daily but we do business with lots of these places, rely on their tourists for our hospitality sector, and lots of people here have family in these places. Do we just lock down until everywhere gets to zero too?

This is why lockdown is nonsense. It's impractical domestically (even regionally) and it solves nothing in the long term.

are maybe we need to rethink how we think about our economic systems, centrals banks can never run out of money, so keep printing, keep giving people money, and hopefully save some businesses

NIMAN · 10-09-2020 9:13am

micks_address wrote: »

I'd say strong chance this evening they will close restaurants and bars and cinemas for two weeks and tell households not to mix at all. Schools etc obvious exceptions..

They can close whatever they want, but now that families and friends have got used to mixing again, it will be hard to get them to stop tbh.

OK so friends can't meet at a cinema or restaurant if they are closed, but those who have been meeting in homes will continue to do so. It can't be policed.

HBC08 · 10-09-2020 9:14am

Antares35 wrote: »

I think another lockdown (while I agree with one in principle) will be a complete waste of time. People are sick of it. There will be zero compliance. There's no fear anymore. I think anyone who wants to keep themselves safe should just do their own lockdown to be honest. That's what we've planned for October to December. OH working from home. I'm on mat leave. Elderly parents with underlying conditions, next door that we need to think about as well as our baby.

We are getting ourselves prepared for three months at home anyway. Batten down the hatches and I couldn't give a sh*t about anyone who go wants to go to a house party or lick the toilet seat in the local or do their shopping in Dunnes with their mask around their neck like an idiot.

Its much better if we all just look out for ourselves

There seems to be a lack of compliance with the current advice in Dublin so it seems a lockdown is needed.
Its terrible for the majority who are doing their bit but the minority or arent are ruining it for the rest of ye.

AllForIt · 10-09-2020 9:23am

How can anyone have faith in lifting of restrictions if they just bring us back to another severe lockdown in coming months.

Or is this the policy? Just go around in circles of increasing then decreasing restrictions until a vaccine comes (if ever).

I don't get this 'second wave' thing. Is it a characteristic of the virus itself which I feel has been inferred or is it simply what happens when you don't get the restrictions right i.e. restrictions are lifted too much or too quickly?

John_Rambo · 10-09-2020 9:37am

HBC08 wrote: »

There seems to be a lack of compliance with the current advice in Dublin so it seems a lockdown is needed.
Its terrible for the majority who are doing their bit but the minority or arent are ruining it for the rest of ye.

There's no more lack of compliance in Dublin than anywhere else. In fact it's the opposite in my experience.

Dublin has a lot more people in one place than any where else in the country because it's a city which is a large human settlement. The same is happening world wide, and has done through the history of mankind. Cities are being hit harder than anywhere else because of the nature of them.

To simplify it (I shouldn't be surprised I have to do this)
Take a room with 100 people in it.
Take another room the same size with 5 people in it.

The room with 100 people will be more vulnerable to the spread of any virus because of the amount of people and the proximity of the people in the room.

stephenjmcd · 10-09-2020 9:38am

micks_address wrote: »

I'd say strong chance this evening they will close restaurants and bars and cinemas for two weeks and tell households not to mix at all. Schools etc obvious exceptions..

Unlikely.

Murmurings from government and NPHET are house to house mixing in house settings has to reduce. Has also been said that Kildare style restrictions aren't required as its a different situation.

They started an enhanced advertising campaign in Dublin and Limerick yesterday.

MM said it again this morning same as Glynn last night the message is reduce contacts and houses mixing

Also Glasgow style restrictions have been mentioned, whereby your not allowed to visit someone else's house.

Restaurants, cinemas etc have not contributed to spread, if theres anything it won't be across the board. It would be very targeted

odyssey06 · 10-09-2020 9:39am

John_Rambo wrote: »

Dublin has a lot more people in one place than any where else in the country because it's a city which is a large human settlement. The same is happening world wide, and has done through the history of mankind. Cities are being hit harder than anywhere else because of the nature of them.
To simplify it (I shouldn't be surprised I have to do this)
Take a room with 100 people in it.
Take another room the same size with 5 people in it.
The room with 100 people will be more vulnerable to the spread of any virus because of the amount of people and the proximity of the people in the room.

To expand on that:
100 people in the same room is higher risk than 20 rooms of 5 people each.

And when comparing how countries are faring, we need to consider the population density.

DangerScouse · 10-09-2020 9:39am

micks_address wrote: »

I'd say strong chance this evening they will close restaurants and bars and cinemas for two weeks and tell households not to mix at all. Schools etc obvious exceptions..

Needs to be done today before we lost control of the situation.

FlubberJones · 10-09-2020 9:55am

Its not time to lockdown Dublin, it's time for people to wake up and not do house gatherings or parties.... Opening the boozers will alleviate this but obviously brings other concerns into the equation.

The effects will be hugely damaging for all involved, people should cop on and do the right thing.

Busi_Girl08 · 10-09-2020 9:59am

Anyone else think they are waiting until they have Monday's plan launched before they start lockdowns again?

tobefrank321 · 10-09-2020 9:59am

Any future lockdowns should focus on non economic life. So you should be allowed go to work, including outside your county, go shopping, even leave the restaurants and most shops open. But you should be discouraged from visiting friends or relatives for a couple of weeks. Parties and the like should be postponed. Small weddings should be allowed but other gatherings should be discouraged. Going on a golfing weekend to Clifden or somewhere like that should be discouraged. Basically any non essential travel outside the county.

Gael23 · 10-09-2020 10:03am

Would be very difficult to do because there is so much travel to and from Dublin which could be deemed essential

HBC08 · 10-09-2020 10:07am

John_Rambo wrote: »

There's no more lack of compliance in Dublin than anywhere else. In fact it's the opposite in my experience.

Dublin has a lot more people in one place than any where else in the country because it's a city which is a large human settlement. The same is happening world wide, and has done through the history of mankind. Cities are being hit harder than anywhere else because of the nature of them.

To simplify it (I shouldn't be surprised I have to do this)
Take a room with 100 people in it.
Take another room the same size with 5 people in it.

The room with 100 people will be more vulnerable to the spread of any virus because of the amount of people and the proximity of the people in the room.

I understand your point but i cant agree with you that there is more compliance in Dublin than outside of Dublin.I can only go on my own experiences and what ive seen as compared to being back in my own county in the west.

tobefrank321 · 10-09-2020 10:11am

Gael23 wrote: »

Would be very difficult to do because there is so much travel to and from Dublin which could be deemed essential

Well I think someone travelling from Dublin with a car full of suitcases, a surfboard on the roof or a set of golf clubs in the back would be a dead giveaway.

Anyways it shouldn't be up to the gardai to police this. Why can't people voluntarily comply for once?

quokula · 10-09-2020 10:18am

HBC08 wrote: »

I understand your point but i cant agree with you that there is more compliance in Dublin than outside of Dublin.I can only go on my own experiences and what ive seen as compared to being back in my own county in the west.

In my experience I've seen far more compliance in Dublin than there is out west. Which probably explains why it hasn't really had an explosion in cases compared to the rest of the country despite vastly higher population density.

John_Rambo · 10-09-2020 10:22am

HBC08 wrote: »

I understand your point but i cant agree with you that there is more compliance in Dublin than outside of Dublin.I can only go on my own experiences and what ive seen as compared to being back in my own county in the west.

I can only go by my experience living in Dublin and travelling South, West, North West, the Midlands and Northern Ireland. Outside Dublin I'm seeing no masks in local shops, no sanitiser or empty containers in shops and no trolly wiping facilities. We actually got laughed at for wearing masks in Donegal.

jackal · 10-09-2020 10:24am

They can announce what they like. Unless they have guards knocking on doors and the army on the streets, it will be imaginary for many people (I can only speak for myself and my friends).

The powers that be know that buy in for lockdown has a shelf life. It's now six months on from the first one, when we were fed a load of dramatically exaggerated death projections. I will continue to wear a mask when required and wash hands and all that, but life must go on now.

The figures of seriously ill people simply do not justify the actions, the median age of deaths do not justify the actions, the empty hospital beds do not justify the actions. They need to cop on and move on. Pausing life in the hope this will all go away soon is not going to work.

I have had enough of the Covid über alles approach.

Graham · 10-09-2020 10:26am

quokula wrote: »

probably explains why it hasn't really had an explosion in cases compared to the rest of the country despite vastly higher population density.

I don't think that's an entirely accurate summary.

tobefrank321 · 10-09-2020 10:29am

John_Rambo wrote: »

I can only go by my experience living in Dublin and travelling South, West, North West, the Midlands and Northern Ireland. Outside Dublin I'm seeing no masks in local shops, no sanitiser or empty containers in shops and no trolly wiping facilities. We actually got laughed at for wearing masks in Donegal.

That sounds like it was a few weeks or months ago.

Where I am (west of ireland) there is 100% compliance with mask wearing. The trolley wiping is more patchy, some shops do it, others don't appear to. Gloves and hand sanitiser also in 100% of shops from what I've seen.

ELM327 · 10-09-2020 10:30am

John_Rambo wrote: »

I can only go by my experience living in Dublin and travelling South, West, North West, the Midlands and Northern Ireland. Outside Dublin I'm seeing no masks in local shops, no sanitiser or empty containers in shops and no trolly wiping facilities. We actually got laughed at for wearing masks in Donegal.

So I've been in Wexford, meath and sligo in the past month. All of the above was not the case.

Is it time for a Dublin lockdown?

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