Is it time for a Dublin lockdown?

GT89

Graham wrote: »

2,000 deaths is a 'GREAT THING'?

Well it's a far cry from the 120k deaths that were being predicted back in March

https://www.irishpost.com/news/top-doctor-warns-coronavirus-claim-lives-120000-across-ireland-181227

Graham

GT89 wrote: »

Well it's a far cry from the 120k deaths that were being predicted back in March

It's like the mitigation measures are working isn't it.

_Kaiser_

Graham wrote: »

2,000 deaths is a 'GREAT THING'?

In the context of initial estimates of 50,000+ and a population of 5 million, yes it is.

As I said in that post (and you're well aware of it despite conveniently ignoring the rest of it for a poor attempt at deflection), it's a pandemic right? Isn't that why we've imposed all these measures? Deaths were inevitable and guess what, more people will still die.

Yes that's unfortunate but that's how it is. People die every day from a variety of causes - natural and otherwise - and we can mourn the loss of each one but it doesn't change it.

However in the broader context of cases vs deaths we have actually gotten off lightly when compared to some other countries and we know now what demographics are at risk and can target our efforts there - but if you are labouring under the notion that we can somehow prevent death through masks and 2m distancing, well....

Graham

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

if you are labouring under the notion that we can somehow prevent death through masks and 2m distancing, well....

I don't think anyone has made such a suggestion.

It will however reduce the number of deaths and leave capacity in the hospitals which is probably the best we can hope for.

Hurrache

GT89 wrote: »

Well it's a far cry from the 120k deaths that were being predicted back in March

https://www.irishpost.com/news/top-doctor-warns-coronavirus-claim-lives-120000-across-ireland-181227

Sigh, very first line

Professor Sam McConkey of the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland spoke of a worst-case scenario that could see four million people infected and up to 120,000 deaths.

HBC08

quokula wrote: »

In my experience I've seen far more compliance in Dublin than there is out west. Which probably explains why it hasn't really had an explosion in cases compared to the rest of the country despite vastly higher population density.

What can i say? ive seen the exact opposite so i guess we'll have to agree to differ.

HBC08

John_Rambo wrote: »

I can only go by my experience living in Dublin and travelling South, West, North West, the Midlands and Northern Ireland. Outside Dublin I'm seeing no masks in local shops, no sanitiser or empty containers in shops and no trolly wiping facilities. We actually got laughed at for wearing masks in Donegal.

No masks in local shops and you were laughed at for wearing a mask?....
since mask became compulsory?
sorry,im calling bullsh1t on that

John_Rambo

Deleted User wrote: »

Why didnt you mention in your original comment that this was before face masks were made mandatory. People were told months ago by the government that they didnt need to wear face masks and then 5 months into the pandemic they changed there mind. Everyone now are wearing them in shops and if you tell me anything different then your talking through your hole

It was before it was mandatory, but it was when masks were advised to be worn in shops, just a few weeks ago.

I didn't need to be told to wear masks to protect the vulnerable in shops Saviola, it's a no brainer to anyone with the slightest bit of cop. Aside from masks, a lot of the shops didn't have trolly cleaning facilities or hand sanitiser. I never see this in my local shops in Dublin.

Heading West again tomorrow. I'll report back if there's an improvement.

HBC08 wrote: »

No masks in local shops and you were laughed at for wearing a mask?....
since mask became compulsory?
sorry,im calling bullsh1t on that

Keep up Sparky.

HBC08

Keep up Sparky.[/quote]

I was replying to your original post as thats where i was in the thread.
I remarked that what you were saying was bullsh1t and indeed it was.

Good to see several others call you out on it before i did.
If you have to make up lies and misrepresent the truth then knock yourself out.

Ps top tip for bullsh1tting on the internet,dont make it so obvious you were talking through your hoop in your very next post lol!

daheff

Graham wrote: »

Again the reality does not support your assertions.

how so?

theballz

You can't lockdown the most important part of the country. Just put a ban on culchies entering the capital and everyone wins

John_Rambo

HBC08 wrote: »

I was replying to your original post as thats where i was in the thread.
I remarked that what you were saying was bullsh1t and indeed it was.

I never said it was after masks were mandatory. Keep up, as I said, I'm heading West again tomorrow, hopefully there'll be an improvement. I'll let you know.

HBC08

John_Rambo wrote: »

I never said it was after masks were mandatory. Keep up, as I said, I'm heading West again tomorrow, hopefully there'll be an improvement. I'll let you know.

I was laughed at for wearing a mask and gloves in a supermarket in Dublin at Christmas.

begbysback

HBC08 wrote: »

I was laughed at for wearing a mask and gloves in a supermarket in Dublin at Christmas.

Wat, you asked them to hand over the money waving a water pistol?

theballz

theballz wrote: »

NPHET has already stated that only 2% of cases are from travel. Your argument is not feasible.

And where do the cases in people’s homes start from?

John_Rambo

HBC08 wrote: »

I was laughed at for wearing a mask and gloves in a supermarket in Dublin at Christmas.

Stick em up!!!

Graham

Deleted User wrote: »

And where do the cases in people’s homes start from?

My guess would be close contact with an infected person.

Wash your hands, wear your mask, keep your distance.

John_Rambo

John_Rambo wrote: »

It was before it was mandatory, but it was when masks were advised to be worn in shops, just a few weeks ago.

I didn't need to be told to wear masks to protect the vulnerable in shops Saviola, it's a no brainer to anyone with the slightest bit of cop. Aside from masks, a lot of the shops didn't have trolly cleaning facilities or hand sanitiser. I never see this in my local shops in Dublin.

Heading West again tomorrow. I'll report back if there's an improvement.



Keep up Sparky.

Jaysus you are a woeful clown. I suppose you will be filling us with more bull$h!t next week after your visit to the west saying you didnt see many people wearing masks

John_Rambo

Deleted User wrote: »

Jaysus you are a woeful clown. I suppose you will be filling us with more bull$h!t next week after your visit to the west saying you didnt see many people wearing masks

I say what I see Saviola and I'll make no apologies for it.

Stay safe, wash your hands and thanks for reading my posts. I feel I've helped.

Chairman Meow

I think something needs to be done in Dublin for definite. The amount of passengers on the bus is now skyrocketed compared to the 20th of July when i had to go back into the office, so many cars on the roads, and the traffic thanks to the school run is worse than i have seen it in years. Cases are definitely going to keep going up and up given the sheer amount of people i see gathering at school gates now not wearing masks or social distancing.

weldoninhio

Strumms wrote: »

They work, they flatten the curve. Allow the health services and staff to breathe... people to remain well.

Yes issues repeat but at least lockdown provides breathing room so coping is possible... imagine this country NOW had we not had lockdown ? We could be looking at a scenario of failing hospitals, five times the deaths, law and order gone to fûck. The statistics are there to back this up.

Or we could be like Sweden, getting back on track.

lucernarian

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Vigilant for what? A virus that doesn't kill the vast majority of people. Indeed many of those infected may not even know they have it. What is IS killing is employment, mental health and social interactions, and the wider economy.

6 months later the virus has killed less than 2000 people, most of those elderly and with serious underlying issues. That's genuinely sad and I'm sorry for their families but that was also not unexpected given this is a pandemic right? People will die.

<2000 deaths out of 30,000 cases in a country of 5,000,000 is a tiny amount and that is a GREAT THING. Rather than continue to panic and scare people because "new cases are up", we should be focusing on the OUTCOME of those cases - which is that very, VERY few are getting sick to the point of needing an ICU bed or hospitalisation at all, and even fewer are dying.

Perspective and proportional response. Two things that have been lost in the daily dose of fear and selective number quoting in the media and news, but which we BADLY need to find again.

Some things: the effect of colds and flu on health services have dropped massively thanks to the simple stuff like social distancing, masks worn properly and squirting the auld sanitiser on hands. This has saved lives beyond just covid-19.

The other is that up to 20% percent of people get badly ill. Back when it was running rampant through Dublin, there were a couple of friends of mine who had all the characteristic symptoms. Off work for weeks with it (was diagnosed as a very bad flu at the time while we assumed it was in China and cruise ships) and in one case, their sense of smell is only coming back to normal since August. Guy in his late 20s. This isn't a disease anyone wants, sure you probably won't need a ventilator but the economic damage, physical and mental health damage, and the stress and nasty experience to boot...

There is some fear mongering going around, all because a lot of thicks don't seem to get that going to pubs and laughing arm in arm with your mates, with nothing on their face but the remains of a pint, is gonna catch up with you. If everyone was wearing clean masks near other people, we'd be doing just fine with reopening more things. Some people just act like sheep around their peers and because of those idiots, we have to suffer through all of us being treated like sheep to a point. There's no enforcement of mask wearing that I've seen except at one Lidl in Dublin one time.

tjhook

theballz wrote: »

NPHET has already stated that only 2% of cases are from travel. Your argument is not feasible.

I know you're correct that they've said that, and I don't mean to be a smartarse, but I don't fully understand it. Surely *all* cases are a result of travel into the country? Otherwise the virus wouldn't have got into the country in the first place. And even if we do eliminate the virus from Ireland, that's how it would be reintroduced.

I guess they might only be counting the first generation of infections from international travelers. But I'm not sure that's a valid metric for discussions about the effects of travel into the country. Or is it?

lucernarian

tjhook wrote: »

I know you're correct that they've said that, and I don't mean to be a smartarse, but I don't fully understand it. Surely *all* cases are a result of travel into the country? Otherwise the virus wouldn't have got into the country in the first place. And even if we do eliminate the virus from Ireland, that's how it would be reintroduced.

I guess they might only be counting the first generation of infections from international travelers. But I'm not sure that's a valid metric for discussions about the effects of travel into the country. Or is it?

It's rather simplistic, as someone bringing it in to the country might have gotten it from a plane from someone who got it while abroad and has infected eg 20 other people in the plane. One will have infected far more Irish cases than the other. Contact tracing is a very nosey business and people might not give accurate or reliable information to the HSE over the phone.

GT89

Graham wrote: »

It's like the mitigation measures are working isn't it.

If there was 120k or even 10k deaths you'd be proably be saying the lockdown wasn't strict enough. Where's the 120k deaths in no lockdown Sweden? It's always shift the goalposts with your type.

Graham

GT89 wrote: »

If there was 120k or even 10k deaths you'd be proably be saying the lockdown wasn't strict enough.

Wouldn't that be a sensible conclusion?

A virus tends not to move around under its own power.

GT89

Graham wrote: »

Wouldn't that be a sensible conclusion?

A virus tends not to move around under its own power.

Well lockdown didn't seem to work very well did it if 2k people died and the goal for you seems to be zero covid deaths. If we still got 120k deaths with the same lockdown we had you'd be complaining it weren't strict enough wouldn't you?

Graham

GT89 wrote: »

Well lockdown didn't seem to work very well did it if 2k people died and the goal for you seems to be zero covid deaths.

You're making up my opinion now?

Odd

Finty Lemon

Which areas of Dublin are faring worst?

Those where people dont know better, or those where people should know better?

Graham

Finty Lemon wrote: »

Which areas of Dublin are faring worst?

Dublin SE and NW

growleaves

quokula wrote: »

It’s amazing how all the medical experts and epidemiologists have been so heavily swayed

But they haven't. Whenever any epidemiologist with a different opinion is quoted posters sulk, try to make out that they are discredited or otherwise ignore them and say we have to listen to media-designated 'official' scientists only.

B.A._Baracus

Stupid question perhaps
But if Dublin does go into lockdown it's pretty much the same as the march lockdown right? No shops open except supermarkets no travelling outside a certain radius right?

Graham

growleaves wrote: »

Whenever any epidemiologist with a different opinion is quoted poster sulk, try to make out that they are discredited or otherwise ignore them

In fairness there have been some complete nutjobs trotted out!

The Tetrarch

Those number suggest a lockdown of all County Dublin is needed.
We could have a dusk to dawn curfew, keeping daylight for work, school and shopping.

ongarite

Graham wrote: »

Dublin SE and NW

Pity that Dublin breakdown isn't by electorial map.
It's hard to pinpoint where the areas with highest cases are.
I think Dublin NW is Blanchardstown area, which is one of the densely populated parts of the country with population over 75K.

odyssey06

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Stupid question perhaps
But if Dublin does go into lockdown it's pretty much the same as the march lockdown right? No shops open except supermarkets no travelling outside a certain radius right?

More like Phase 1+ or what was set for Kildare recently.

stephenjmcd

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Stupid question perhaps
But if Dublin does go into lockdown it's pretty much the same as the march lockdown right? No shops open except supermarkets no travelling outside a certain radius right?

No, its being suggested nothing like that is needed and would only be a ban on different households mixing in each others houses. Targeted measures not the shutting down of everthing again

stephenjmcd

odyssey06 wrote: »

More like Phase 1+ or what was set for Kildare recently.

Government sources in the papers saying nothing like that for Dublin or Limerick. Not deemed necessary nor practical appearently.

Any measures would be reducing houses mixing in houses. Thats what they've been kite flying last few days.

Its a bigger issue to put restrictions on dublin given the economic importance and the amount of travel through

growleaves

Graham wrote: »

In fairness there have been some complete nutjobs trotted out!

There's been a mixture. The top epidemiologists at Oxford University, which is one the oldest and best universities on Earth, we're dismissed without much consideration. A Nobel-prize winning physicist was called a hack-fraud. Etc.

In the end, science is accepted through the prism of media and government sanction - which isn't itself a scientific attitude.

BringBackMick

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Those number suggest a lockdown of all County Dublin is needed.
We could have a dusk to dawn curfew, keeping daylight for work, school and shopping.

:D:D

Antares35

HBC08 wrote: »

There seems to be a lack of compliance with the current advice in Dublin so it seems a lockdown is needed.
Its terrible for the majority who are doing their bit but the minority or arent are ruining it for the rest of ye.

My sense is that it is more than a minority not doing their bit to be honest. Gobshítes wandering around with face masks around their necks, people pushing past leaving only a gap of a couple of inches.

Graham

growleaves wrote: »

In the end, science is accepted through the prism of media and government sanction - which isn't itself a scientific attitude.

Or increasingly Youtube / Facebook unfortunately.

micks_address

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No, its being suggested nothing like that is needed and would only be a ban on different households mixing in each others houses. Targeted measures not the shutting down of everthing again

Not easy to enforce households not mixing... closing restaurants and non essential retail would reduce congregation which is probably likely

stephenjmcd

micks_address wrote: »

Not easy to enforce households not mixing... closing restaurants and non essential retail would reduce congregation which is probably likely

I agree not easy but as has been said none of the above that you mention are contributing to spread hence appearently not being considered.

Clear driver is houses mixing in the houses. Has been singled out last few days and specific events mentioned by Dr Glynn last night

Airyfairy12

Its about time they start cracking down on house parties and enforcing covid regulations on younger people. They are costing lives, the health care system and the economy which we will all pay the price for.

The Tetrarch

micks_address wrote: »

Not easy to enforce households not mixing... closing restaurants and non essential retail would reduce congregation which is probably likely

Power cut?

Airyfairy12

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Its about time they start cracking down on house parties and enforcing covid regulations on younger people. They are costing lives, the health care system and the economy which we will all pay the price for.

They are not costing lives. People will die with or without Covid. Did you blame them for costing lives last year if they spread a flu to granny?

The health care system is fine.

It was our choice to crash the economy by locking down and implementing restrictions. The young will pay the tab.

_Kaiser_

Airyfairy12 wrote: »

Its about time they start cracking down on house parties and enforcing covid regulations on younger people. They are costing lives, the health care system and the economy which we will all pay the price for.

What lives are they costing? What negative effects are they having on the healthcare system and the economy?

They are the most likely NOT to need medical care even if they do catch it (and realise they caught it) and they are also the most likely to be affected by the loss of lower paid jobs

Those at actual risk from CV-19 (the elderly and/or those who have underlying medical issues) need to take responsibility for their own safety and well being with support of their GPs where needed. Limit contacts, maintain distance, take precautions. It's not the fault of the younger generation, although they usually are among the first to feel the effects when things go bad.

The Tetrarch

Deleted User wrote: »

People will die with or without Covid.

This is 100% correct.
People will die in car accidents and will not die in car accidents.
Taking precautions when driving will lessen the chance of an accident.
Taking precautions against the spread of Covid-19 will reduce the spread, and reduce the number of deaths from Covid-19.
That will not stop those people from death, but hopefully that will be after a long and happy life.

Russman

So how does this all play out over the next few months ?
On one hand you’ve got the “I’m alright jack” brigade who want everything opened up and think almost every country in world crashed their economies for the craic, and then you’ve the cautious who want a full lockdown reinstated. Where is the truth ?

Even though numbers are rising slowly, they’re still rising and it’s only a matter of time before we fill the ICU beds, what then ? Prof Nolan mentioned last night that cases in Dublin could double in 14 days. Even being generous and running that out to a month, you’re then in mid October. Let’s still be generous and give it another month before the elderly get the brunt of it - now it’s mid November. Are we potentially locked down for Christmas ? Do they do it now and try to get re-opened for Christmas, or do they try to muddle through until Christmas and then do it ? That’s obviously assuming peoples behaviours don’t change and we’ve seen little to suggest they will.

For me, I think another lockdown or whatever term is used, is almost inevitable, it’s just a question of when. It’s just a pity many people can’t be trusted to behave and do the right thing for a few months.