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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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  • #3212
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    TRANQUILLO wrote: »
    They are treating logic, truth and common sense like an a le carte menu. Dipping in and out once it fits their agenda. Any things that show reduced numbers "that's because of our actions" . anything that shows that we are out of the woods " no we are in the **** here and need to have all our restrictions"

    Totally agree. Some of the people that I know and those who are here seemed to have abdicated their ability to use their own brains to assess the evidence and make their own choices. They just sound like yet another RTÉ news or an article - it’s all based on anecdotes instead of evidence.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3213
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Covid really isn't that serious. All of the information, data and stats back that up.

    We are testing way more people these days. Over 10000 a day some days and only picking up 100 or less cases. Most of the meat factories had asymptomatic or mild cases.

    Imagine how many would have actually tested positive back in April? Likely multiples of the official figure.

    The death rate and hospitalization rate are likely WAY lower than we think. And keep in mind that the death rate is overstated by a lot. And also includes people that were extremely ill and likely to die very soon anyways.

    Hospitals been overwhelmed is laughable.
    If this trend continues, it will be hard to justify not opening the country.

    On the 15th of April, based on the data available at the time, I calculated that the death rate of Covid was 0.648%. I just reviewed the data to discover how badly I was wrong. It is more like 0.35-0.37% conservative. On that it is fair to assume that about 480k people got infected by Covid in Ireland already.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3214
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    TRANQUILLO wrote: »
    This is why i feel they wont watch the videos . Undermining the messenger or ducking and dodging watching them avoids them having to contest the incontestable.

    Its an intellectual cul de sac and deep down they know it.

    I just watched the French video, the professor being interviewed (Jean-Francois Toussaint) went through several graphs for France and Europe all showing the same massive drop in hospital admissions but a rise in cases, all young asymptomatic patients.
    Paraphrasing what the translation gave, he stated, 'always in medicine what counts are the symptoms, the degradation of the person's condition is what leads to a reaction' and that they are 'nowhere near the urgency of spring', but now they are changing the 'instrumentation' sic used to make decisions and take further action since they no longer see the reality of the risk.
    Jean-François Toussaint, est un médecin français, professeur de physiologie de l’Université Paris-Descartes.

    The Spanish doctor blatantly sneering at the journalist's suggestion that the hospitals are experiencing a second wave saying the same thing, crisis in spring but empty hospital now.

    The Swedish doctor saying the same:-

    https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

    And if you look at the comments, a doctor from Quebec concurring and more worryingly:-

    "For now, suggesting anything other than near complete shutdown if a second wave occurs, is frowned upon. Mentioning that Sweden had better numbers, will only raise eyebrows and get you dismissive responses…..at best."


  • #3215
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,305 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    Gerry Hatrick wrote: »
    Another one who fails to grasp that if we didn't shut down the economy we'd have had army trucks carting away coffins here also.

    We beat the first wave because of our actions.

    I'm just a layman like everyone else but in my opinion the virus was most likely here and people were already dying from it before we ever noticed. But because the symptoms are more or less the same as other illnesses very old people die from (pneumonia) it took us a while to identify this as a new illness.

    Meaning that when we identified it as this new corona virus disease the number of people already exposed to the virus was already much much bigger than we thought.

    Which lead to us overestimating the severity and fatality rate of it by a long shot and pressing the panic button.

    Thats why we see all over Europe case numbers increasing but deaths and ICU admission following on a much much smaller scale. Not necessarily because the virus 'gets weaker but because a) we are beginning to understand the scale of the spread better and b) the virus already got to a large number of people most vulnerable to it.
    Well and yes of course lockdowns and other measure and advances in treatment etc, too.
    But basically between better understanding as to the real extent of the spread and the deaths already occurred the numbers get closer to the 'real' numbers.

    When it's all said and done infection and fatality rates will turn out to be in more or less in the same ball park as other comparable viruses. Like the flu. Yes, there I said it. Might be worse than the flu but its not going to be that 1% or 2% killer. From data that we see from other countries probably somewhere between 0.02% and 0.5% with regional differences depending on age structure.

    But in society and politics this thing now has taken its own dynamics. Media falling over themselves in talking this thing up because tis what they do and it sells and politics have to follow suit in order not to be unelectable. Just look at last weeks witch hunt over something silly really. And of course we burnt a lot of money and societal assets so we find it very difficult to come off our horror story anyway.


  • #3216
    topper75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,942 ✭✭✭topper75


    hmmm wrote: »
    Sure - everyone has much better testing now so are finding younger and asymptomatic people. Ireland was testing one or two thousand a day back in March, we tested twelve thousand in one day recently. Most countries are not at March levels of risk, it's probably more like January/February levels.

    Makes no sense. How are you going to assess 'risk levels' if you don't use a measure like cases?
    A case of covid is a case of covid, is it not?
    Gerry Hatrick wrote: »
    Another one who fails to grasp that if we didn't shut down the economy we'd have had army trucks carting away coffins here also.

    We beat the first wave because of our actions.

    We didn't beat the first wave. We experienced it in full. We were way up the table for cases per head of population globally. The lack of deaths here was because the disease is not what they said it was and our demographic weighting was nothing as messed up as Italy's.
    The 'actions' were for nothing but you'll be reminded of them on your payslips for years.


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  • #3217
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    walus wrote: »
    On the 15th of April, based on the data available at the time, I calculated that the death rate of Covid was 0.648%. I just reviewed the data to discover how badly I was wrong. It is more like 0.35-0.37% conservative. On that it is fair to assume that about 480k people got infected by Covid in Ireland already.


    I do agree this is probably the case but which data are you using to get these numbers? If you use the Irish figures it would be above 5%?


  • #3218
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    I'm just a layman like everyone else but in my opinion the virus was most likely here and people were already dying from it before we ever noticed. But because the symptoms are more or less the same as other illnesses very old people die from (pneumonia) it took us a while to identify this as a new illness.

    Meaning that when we identified it as this new corona virus disease the number of people already exposed to the virus was already much much bigger than we thought.

    Which lead to us overestimating the severity and fatality rate of it by a long shot and pressing the panic button.

    Thats why we see all over Europe case numbers increasing but deaths and ICU admission following on a much much smaller scale. Not necessarily because the virus 'gets weaker but because a) we are beginning to understand the scale of the spread better and b) the virus already got to a large number of people most vulnerable to it.
    Well and yes of course lockdowns and other measure and advances in treatment etc, too.
    But basically between better understanding as to the real extent of the spread and the deaths already occurred the numbers get closer to the 'real' numbers.

    When it's all said and done infection and fatality rates will turn out to be in more or less in the same ball park as other comparable viruses. Like the flu. Yes, there I said it. Might be worse than the flu but its not going to be that 1% or 2% killer. From data that we see from other countries probably somewhere between 0.02% and 0.5% with regional differences depending on age structure.

    But in society and politics this thing now has taken its own dynamics. Media falling over themselves in talking this thing up because tis what they do and it sells and politics have to follow suit in order not to be unelectable. Just look at last weeks witch hunt over something silly really. And of course we burnt a lot of money and societal assets so we find it very difficult to come off our horror story anyway.

    I reckon we have had this virus in Ireland since late November or early December.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3219
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    Alaina Juicy Bill wrote: »
    I do agree this is probably the case but which data are you using to get these numbers? If you use the Irish figures it would be above 5%?

    Irish figures are wrong. German studies.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3220
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,343 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    walus wrote: »
    Totally agree. Some of the people that I know and those who are here seemed to have abdicated their ability to use their own brains to assess the evidence and make their own choices. They just sound like yet another RTÉ news or an article - it’s all based on anecdotes instead of evidence.

    It's amazing to me to read these posts from people like you, looking down your nose at others and assuming that they are simply confused and scared and have lost the ability to reason. The truth is that it's actually you who doesn't understand, but you're lost in your own ignorance like many others on this thread. You consider yourself more knowledgeable than the experts in a field of science that you actually know nothing about. I'm in the same boat as you, the only difference is I understand that I don't have a full understanding of this situation so I listen to those who do, not unquestioningly, but I listen. I don't like the restrictions, but I don't allow that to cloud my ability to see sense.


  • #3221
    TRANQUILLO
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 453 ✭✭TRANQUILLO


    MadYaker wrote: »
    It's amazing to me to read these posts from people like you, looking down your nose at others and assuming that they are simply confused and scared and have lost the ability to reason. The truth is that it's actually you who doesn't understand, but you're lost in your own ignorance like many others on this thread. You consider yourself more knowledgeable than the experts in a field of science that you actually know nothing about. I'm in the same boat as you, the only difference is I understand that I don't have a full understanding of this situation so I listen to those who do, not unquestioningly, but I listen. I don't like the restrictions, but I don't allow that to cloud my ability to see sense.

    Hello Madyaker,

    Do you have any opinion on the video(s) recently discussed on the thread.

    I wouldn't mind your feedback if you had the time.


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  • #3222
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,343 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    TRANQUILLO wrote: »
    Hello Madyaker,

    Do you have any opinion on the video(s) recently discussed on the thread.

    I wouldn't mind your feedback if you had the time.

    Watching it now. Made it as far as 1:49 where he says the hospitals were crowded with covid patients in the spring but are quiet now. Will keep watching and edit this post.

    Edit: at 3:49 he says he wonders if a vaccine will be worthwhile since a large % of the population may have already been exposed. I'm surprised to hear him say that since in Madrid (where he works) they did antibody testing and found that only 20% of the population had been infected.

    I have no idea why he keeps saying that the media didn't cover the pandemic in the spring because the situation in Madrid received extensive worldwide coverage.

    Lol, and now some male interviewer from the station appears to be calling the doctor out on this nonsense.

    Ok well that was kind of interesting. I don't really get the point of it though. The doctor didn't really talk about the pandemic or what it was like to treat patients. He just whinged about the media ignoring the pandemic when the hospitals were overflowing in the spring which was frankly absolute nonsense as it recieved wall to wall coverage at the time.

    I'm reminded once again why I get my information from reputable sources and not youtube.


  • #3223
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    MadYaker wrote: »
    It's amazing to me to read these posts from people like you, looking down your nose at others and assuming that they are simply confused and scared and have lost the ability to reason. The truth is that it's actually you who doesn't understand, but you're lost in your own ignorance like many others on this thread. You consider yourself more knowledgeable than the experts in a field of science that you actually know nothing about. I'm in the same boat as you, the only difference is I understand that I don't have a full understanding of this situation so I listen to those who do, not unquestioningly, but I listen. I don't like the restrictions, but I don't allow that to cloud my ability to see sense.

    I’m not looking down on anyone and I don’t consider myself more knowledgable than the next person either. The problem I have is that lots of people fall for these type of journalism that provides anecdotes without the context. They don’t seek evidence or a opposite point of view. Just take somebody’s opinions as their own. Technically speaking far more efficient way to get people comply to the rules than propaganda back in the day.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3224
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,305 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    walus wrote: »
    I reckon we have had this virus in Ireland since late November or early December.

    Possibly longer. There were Military Olympic Games in the Wuhan region in September I think and several athletes coming back reported weird flu like symptoms after. It has been properly identified in Europe as far back as December. With the travel/networking that was going on before this, thousands of people criss crossing the continent every single day on business and leisure, there is no way it didnt get practically everywhere within a short space of time.


  • #3225
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    topper75 wrote: »
    Makes no sense. How are you going to assess 'risk levels' if you don't use a measure like cases?
    A case of covid is a case of covid, is it not?
    Yeah but back in March we were perhaps finding 10 or 20% of cases.

    Today we're finding more of the total.

    "Cases" is not a particularly useful metric. A more useful metric is positivity rate. A low positivity rate shows that community spread is low, a higher one is bad news. Our positivity rate has been below 1% which is great news, but has been trickling up recently.

    https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/


  • #3226
    CalamariFritti
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,305 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    MadYaker wrote: »
    Watching it now. Made it as far as 1:49 where he says the hospitals were crowded with covid patients in the spring but are quiet now. Will keep watching and edit this post.

    Edit: at 3:49 he says he wonders if a vaccine will be worthwhile since a large % of the population may have already been exposed. I'm surprised to hear him say that since in Madrid (where he works) they did antibody testing and found that only 20% of the population had been infected.

    But we already know that antibodies isn't the full picture. I dont know what people want to call it, I heard t-cells stuff, whatever, but it seems very clear there are people who show no reaction whatsoever. No positive test, no antibodies. But we don't know how many.


  • #3227
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    MadYaker wrote: »
    It's amazing to me to read these posts from people like you, looking down your nose at others and assuming that they are simply confused and scared and have lost the ability to reason. The truth is that it's actually you who doesn't understand, but you're lost in your own ignorance like many others on this thread. You consider yourself more knowledgeable than the experts in a field of science that you actually know nothing about. I'm in the same boat as you, the only difference is I understand that I don't have a full understanding of this situation so I listen to those who do, not unquestioningly, but I listen. I don't like the restrictions, but I don't allow that to cloud my ability to see sense.

    Yes but at least the rest of us are trying to educate ourselves and looking at what other doctors and scientists have to say. And for sure there is plenty of dissent in the scientific community.


  • #3228
    nw1dqsv7amx026
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭nw1dqsv7amx026


    MadYaker wrote: »
    I have no idea why he keeps saying that the media didn't cover the pandemic in the spring because the situation in Madrid received extensive worldwide coverage.
    I would agree with you there.

    [/QUOTE]
    Lol, and now some male interviewer from the station appears to be calling the doctor out on this nonsense[/QUOTE]
    The male interviewer said he was out on the streets watching people die to which the doctor asked how many death certs he had signed.


  • #3229
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    CalamariFritti wrote: »
    But we already know that antibodies isn't the full picture. I dont know what people want to call it, I heard t-cells stuff, whatever, but it seems very clear there are people who show no reaction whatsoever. No positive test, no antibodies. But we don't know how many.

    What you saying is correct. T-cells kill all sorts of viruses and already mutated cells in our bodies.

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3230
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,255 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Zero deaths again today.


  • #3231
    Lundstram
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭Lundstram


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Zero deaths again today.
    Deaths don’t matter now. Can’t be focusing on that because it’s extremely positive.

    Always focus on the negative to keep the sheep in line.


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  • #3232
    walus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,668 ✭✭✭walus


    MadYaker wrote: »
    ...

    I'm reminded once again why I get my information from reputable sources and not youtube.

    What do you consider a reputable source? Could you give any examples of such?

    ”Where’s the revolution? Come on, people you’re letting me down!”



  • #3233
    bucketybuck
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,943 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    hmmm wrote: »
    "Cases" is not a particularly useful metric. A more useful metric is positivity rate. A low positivity rate shows that community spread is low, a higher one is bad news. Our positivity rate has been below 1% which is great news, but has been trickling up recently.

    I sense the goalposts about to move again, the metrics for this debate seem to mutate more than the virus.

    Here is a metric for you, zero deaths today, yet again.


  • #3234
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,343 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    walus wrote: »
    What do you consider a reputable source? Could you give any examples of such?

    For news or for factual information? Most of my news I get from https://www.reuters.com/ or https://apnews.com/ I also read RTE and the Irish Times. Don't really bother with any other Irish news media.

    From coronavirus stuff I get access to medical journals in work where I can read papers on research and vaccine progress. But I don't read papers that often as they tend to be so long winded and viruses and vaccines are not something I studied in much detail. Pubmed is good for finding them but you'll need access to the journals https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/

    This site is also good for numbers https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    Also the HSE publish daily operations updates here https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/

    Lots of detail on hospital figures etc. Those links are where I get most of my info from. You'll notice I didn't include a link to twitter or youtube :P

    It's about getting as much GOOD info as you can and drawing your own conclusions. The problem really is a lot of people can't separate the good info from the bad.

    Edit: oh and read the updates from NPHET as well, but not every day.


  • #3235
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    bucketybuck wrote: »
    Here is a metric for you, zero deaths today, yet again.
    Death numbers can be months out of date. It's not a useful number for figuring out the trends with the disease.


  • #3236
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    70% of today's cases are under 45, therefore likelihood of deaths at 0% statistically speaking. You honestly wouldn't know there was a pandemic if it wasn't for the media hype.


  • #3237
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    hmmm wrote: »
    Death numbers can be months out of date. It's not a useful number for figuring out the trends with the disease.

    What is?

    4 in the ICU, a useful number?

    More people are dieing/sick from flu and pneumonia right now than Covid, a useful number?


  • #3238
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    hmmm wrote: »
    Death numbers can be months out of date. It's not a useful number for figuring out the trends with the disease.

    How about the trends of cases and deaths from the past few weeks since lockdown ended? Cases climbed but deaths haven't. This has been going on for months. The trend we can see is that the more new cases the lower the death rate is becoming.


  • #3239
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,255 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    hmmm wrote: »
    Death numbers can be months out of date. It's not a useful number for figuring out the trends with the disease.

    The trend being that very few are dying?

    It genuinely seems like you and others on this thread would almost prefer the opposite, just so you'd be "right".

    Low deaths, low numbers in ICU and a situation where the majority who catch this thing recover and may not even realise they had it are all extremely good news stories for something that was predicted to potentially kill tens of thousands in this country only a few months ago.

    I assume you're as happy as the rest of us that those predictions didn't bear out, so I can only guess that at this point it's about not being "wrong" in front of a bunch of Internet randomers?

    I'm not being funny either. It's deeply worrying how many people can't recognise the situation for the relief it is.


  • #3240
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,343 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    How about the trends of cases and deaths from the past few weeks since lockdown ended? Cases climbed but deaths haven't. This has been going on for months. The trend we can see is that the more new cases the lower the death rate is becoming.

    Good news, I guess NPHETs plan is working so?


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  • #3241
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,255 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    hmmm wrote: »
    Death numbers can be months out of date. It's not a useful number for figuring out the trends with the disease.

    Oh and one other point on the above.

    Somehow I reckon that if the numbers dead today was 50, you'd be here telling us that the talk of a renewed lockdown is completely justified.


This discussion has been closed.
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