Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

_Kaiser_

MadYaker wrote: »

What does that even mean. So you honestly think that gov took the wrong actions at some point and are now throwing the baby out with the bath water in some ridiculous face saving attempt? Do you realise how ridiculous that sounds?

I added a line

And is it really so ridiculous given all we've seen in the last few months? What about even in the last week or so with a bunch of entitled connected yahoos going for a sess in Galway while some of them and their colleagues have been lecturing us not about seeing loved ones and families because "de virus"

Or the Hogan road trip around Ireland at a time when the county he was travelling in and out of at will was locked down?

You tell me which is more ridiculous.

Assetbacked

hmmm wrote: »

We've had very few admissions to ICU after the initial lockdown period. I don't have inside information, just basing it on the figures we have. Covid takes time to kill, particularly when you have great doctors and nurses giving small number of patients top-class care. We also have very few current clusters (that we know of) in vulnerable groups.

You do realise that covid is not really a killer? The median age of death is above the life expectancy in Ireland which means that simply being old is as likely to kill the people that died.

In respect of our case fatality rate, it is overestimated, potentially by many multiples for 2 reasons;

1. Not all infected people were recorded as positive cases from testing.
2. Deaths are counted as covid deaths simply by the person being tested or suspected to have been infected with covid when they died.

It puts the death rate essentially the same as or slightly worse than the flu. It's not rocket science and the data has shown this for months.

FintanMcluskey

hmmm wrote: »

I'm not sure that's public - it might be in here somewhere
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)%20v1.0_20200826%20-%20Website%20-v2.pdf

Of course they don't mention the relevant stats like ICU deaths.

The median age of death is 84.

163 over the age of 65 were admitted to ICU, they may all have survived, the data doesn't seem to be present.

1656 over the age of 65 died (allegedly).

Staggeringly only 1519 (total across all ages) deaths are confirmed, the rest are 99 probable and 159 possible, whatever the **** that means.

So 1656 over the age of 65 may have died, we don't know because probable and possible are counted.

The most that could of been healthy enough to recieve ICU care in that age group is 163.

The died of/with argument will continue for my lifetime I reckon, all the while the untreated cancer deaths will dwarf those figures

MadYaker

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I added a line

And is it really so ridiculous given all we've seen in the last few months? What about even in the last week with a bunch of entitled connected yahoos going for a sess in Galway while some of them and their colleagues have been lecturing us not about seeing loved ones and families because "de virus"

Or the Hogan road trip around Ireland at a time when the county he was travelling in and out of at will was locked down?

You tell me which is more ridiculous.

Politicians being gobsh!tes while annoying, is nothing new and in reality is a separate issue to the pandemic. Just because some public figures are too self absorbed to see right from wrong doesn't make the advice they ignored any less important. The fact that they are all resigning left right and centre should tell you how important an issue it is. You won't see me defending it, but it doesn't change my opinions on the pandemic and our response to it.

hmmm

The median age of death in Ireland is very high because most of our deaths occurred in vulnerable groups in nursing homes.

And just by the way, I know it's not a view widely shared by people here, but I don't think anyone of any age deserves to die alone of Covid while the rest of us make no effort to stop it spreading. You'll be old too some day, or on chemo, or taking immuno-suppressants for something.

FintanMcluskey

hmmm wrote: »

The median age of death in Ireland is very high because most of our deaths occurred in vulnerable groups in nursing homes.

And just by the way, I know it's not a view widely shared by people here, but I don't think anyone of any age deserves to die alone of Covid while the rest of us make no effort to stop it spreading.

Well heres the thing, the dying will die, every day, in Ireland at a rate of 80 a day (averaged over the year).

560 a week die, people dont seem to realise this.


Death is the only guarantee in our lives

TRANQUILLO

deisedevil wrote: »

Who is herding the sheep and why are they doing it. To what end? Why are governments, top scientists and health authorities all pushing this? If it's not for the greater good then what's the real end goal?

fear of litigation , fear of losing ones political seat, fear of looking like a fool . appeasing the baying mob. its a vicious cycle. An unforgiving media lashing the government out of it at every opportunity.

Lundstram

deisedevil wrote: »

Who is herding the sheep and why are they doing it. To what end? Why are governments, top scientists and health authorities all pushing this? If it's not for the greater good then what's the real end goal?

End goal is to make themselves look good. Oh look no one is dying, aren't we great. Yayy we are down to 10 cases today.. well done MM, Ronan and all the gang.

They are killing our economy for self preservation. This is a historic event, they will do anything to come out of it looking good. Reeling in the Years 2020, MM and SD save Ireland - that's what they're after. If that means destroying our economy, destroying people's mental health, taking away people livelihoods etc then so be it.

The median age of deaths is 84. 200,000 people are sitting at home collecting €350 p/w from tax payers money, Kildare remains in lockdown for it's 4th week - 7 cases here today. That is a fcuking scandal.

RTÉ are complicit, I see they are getting €50M soon from our tax money to keep them afloat. Hmm..

10 years from now we'll look back at this and think what the fcuk was all the fuss about while stilly paying for the economic damage that came with it. MM, Ronan and the muppet Donnelly will be pensioned off and will live happily ever after.

We are mugs.

TRANQUILLO

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Economies have been severely hit, people's freedoms curtailed, jobs lost, and massive investments made into the search for a vaccine (which of course will need to be recouped). Plus the media and experts aren't providing this blanket coverage for nothing.

To turn around now and admit that actually, based on the latest figures things aren't actually that bad at this point wouldn't be good business.

In other words.. aside the initial few weeks (which were wholly justified at that time given what we knew), the reaction has since turned out to be hugely disproportionate in places like Ireland. But the damage is done and now it needs to be justified.

this is the correct answer. this is what's happening . clear as day to me anyway.

TRANQUILLO

MadYaker wrote: »

What does that even mean. So you honestly think that gov took the wrong actions at some point and are now throwing the baby out with the bath water in some ridiculous face saving attempt? Do you realise how ridiculous that sounds?

i think its a huge factor in what's going on. gargantuan.

MadYaker

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

fear of litigation , fear of losing ones political seat, fear of looking like a fool . appeasing the baying mob. its a vicious cycle. An unforgiving media lashing the government out of it at every opportunity.

I've not noticed a baying mob. I've noticed a large panel of scientists and doctors with hundreds of collective years experience giving advice which is considered by government. You know what else I've noticed? Every other country in the world has a similar group of scientists and doctors and the advice being given all over is largely the same. I wonder why that might be?

MadYaker

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

i think its a huge factor in what's going on. gargantuan.

Well then id have no faith in your ability to asses the state of current affairs, in relation to coronavirus at least. That's a completely mental suggestion imo. The plan we are following now has been largely the same since mid march.

odyssey06

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Well heres the thing, the dying will die, every day, in Ireland at a rate of 80 a day (averaged over the year).
560 a week die, people dont seem to realise this.
Death is the only guarantee in our lives

And over a thousand extra people died here during spring because of covid19... which excess mortality shows.

Lundstram

MadYaker wrote: »

I've not noticed a baying mob. I've noticed a large panel of scientists and doctors with hundreds of collective years experience giving advice which is considered by government. You know what else I've noticed? Every other country in the world has a similar group of scientists and doctors and the advice being given all over is largely the same. I wonder why that might be?

You talk a lot of BS, a lot!

Have a look at this video and watch the presenters, particualrly the prick at the end, try to turn the truth around and accuse the doctor of insulting the intelligence of the people of Spain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwlkumcRf6w

Lundstram

Lundstram wrote: »

End goal is to make themselves look good. Oh look no one is dying, aren't we great. Yayy we are down to 10 cases today.. well done MM, Ronan and all the gang.

They are killing our economy for self preservation. This is a historic event, they will do anything to come out of it looking good. Reeling in the Years 2020, MM and SD save Ireland - that's what they're after. If that means destroying our economy, destroying people's mental health, taking away people livelihoods etc then so be it.

The median age of deaths is 84. 200,000 people are sitting at home collecting €350 p/w from tax payers money, Kildare remains in lockdown for it's 4th week - 7 cases here today. That is a fcuking scandal.

RTÉ are complicit, I see they are getting €50M soon from our tax money to keep them afloat. Hmm..

10 years from now we'll look back at this and think what the fcuk was all the fuss about while stilly paying for the economic damage that came with it. MM, Ronan and the muppet Donnelly will be pensioned off and will live happily ever after.

We are mugs.

And they are so invested in this course of action, that there is no way they will change direction, no matter what. The worst thing will be that if a vaccine does not work out for whatever reason, they will be trying to persuade us to commit to some kind of ‘new normal’ for months or years, in which life is just generally pretty ****e

Penfailed

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Its how its framed though isn't it Penfailed. They can definitely drive an agenda by the way they paint the picture.

Its akin to giving a match report like this..... Liverpool had a staggering 40 shots on their goal today (cases), the opponents hit the cross bar twice (ICU) , they also kept a clean sheet (deaths) for the 11th consecutive match. No mention either that the shots(cases) were all ten yards wide or miles over the bar (asymptomatic).


They start with the sexy big number in cases and then mutter the deaths under their breath.

The OP said that the focus had changed from deaths to cases. I pointed out that the focus hasn't changed as both have been reported right from the very start. To me it's not agenda driven, it's reporting the facts as they are. What do you mean about 'how its framed'? Numbers are numbers.

MadYaker

Lundstram wrote: »

You talk a lot of BS, a lot!

Have a look at this video and watch the presenters, particualrly the prick at the end, try to turn the truth around and accuse the doctor of insulting the intelligence of the people of Spain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwlkumcRf6w

If you followed the thread you'd see we already discussed that video.

What part of my post was BS? DO you disagree that the advice given by NPHET largely lines up with that given by their international counterparts?

FintanMcluskey

odyssey06 wrote: »

And over a thousand extra people died here during spring because of covid19... which excess mortality shows.

Would that be the yearly excess mortality?

odyssey06

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Would that be the yearly excess mortality?

Thats the HIQA study on excess mortality from mid March to mid June.

Similar findings across Europe of a spike in excess mortality for the period coinciding with the peak of covid19 outbreak.

_Kaiser_

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

fear of litigation , fear of losing ones political seat, fear of looking like a fool . appeasing the baying mob. its a vicious cycle. An unforgiving media lashing the government out of it at every opportunity.

Hence talking about another lockdown despite no new deaths in days (again) and a handful in ICU.

Wait till the money runs out/the October budget and watch the medical advice/reaction suddenly become more pragmatic

walus

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

fear of litigation , fear of losing ones political seat, fear of looking like a fool . appeasing the baying mob. its a vicious cycle. An unforgiving media lashing the government out of it at every opportunity.

In fact one of the reasons how Sweden was able to approach this Covid “pandemic” differently is stable and mature political system. There is virtually no opposition party waiting for the crowd at the helm to trip up and fall.

snowcat

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Hence talking about another lockdown despite no new deaths in days (again) and a handful in ICU.

Wait till the money runs out/the October budget and watch the medical advice/reaction suddenly become more pragmatic

Getting ridiculous now with less than 10 people in icu and no deaths.

walus

odyssey06 wrote: »

Hospitalisations up in France:
Official figures released today showed more than 5,400 confirmed new cases in just 24 hours, with admissions to hospital and intensive care units on the rise.
More than 800 coronavirus patients are being admitted to hospital every week on average, up from 500 six weeks ago, the prime minister said.

Any info on demographics of those admitted?

snowcat

walus wrote: »

Any info on demographics of those admitted?

Deaths look to be zero.

mcburns07

hmmm wrote: »

Yeah but back in March we were perhaps finding 10 or 20% of cases.

Today we're finding more of the total.

"Cases" is not a particularly useful metric. A more useful metric is positivity rate. A low positivity rate shows that community spread is low, a higher one is bad news. Our positivity rate has been below 1% which is great news, but has been trickling up recently.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Surely positivity rate is only a product of how much testing you do and who you target with that testing? You can test only 100 people in a meat factory and have a positivity rate of 80%. Conversely you could test 10000 people over 70 and have a positivity rate of 0% as they're not getting it anymore (so we're being told by some posters on here). In the example above positivity rate doesn't tell you particularly much about the prevalence of the virus in the general population.

hmmm

mcburns07 wrote: »

Surely positivity rate is only a product of how much testing you do and who you target with that testing? You can test only 100 people in a meat factory and have a positivity rate of 80%. Conversely you could test 10000 people over 70 and have a positivity rate of 0% as they're not getting it anymore (so we're being told by some posters on here). In the example above positivity rate doesn't tell you particularly much about the prevalence of the virus in the general population.

True, it's going to spike when they are going after newly identified clusters, but it's a reasonable proxy for community transmission when we are doing more generalised and largescale testing - we had something like 12,000 tests in one day last week. There's parts of the US (Florida I remember in particular) where the rate hit 20% - clearly indicating they were missing large numbers of cases.

odyssey06

walus wrote: »

Any info on demographics of those admitted?

I am afraid my French isnt that good.
Best figure I could find was that 18 percent of admissions under 45.
In spring it was 8 percent.

I posted it to show that other countries are seeing hospitalisation increase as cases increase.

Nice just placed under red zone like Kildare.
I was supposed to be going there in 2 weeks!

hmmm

odyssey06 wrote: »

Nice just placed under red zone like Kildare.
I was supposed to be going there in 2 weeks!

Oof isn't the TdF starting from Nice soon?

(edit) just checked - yes. Yikes.

topper75

MadYaker wrote: »

I've not noticed a baying mob. I've noticed a large panel of scientists and doctors with hundreds of collective years experience giving advice which is considered by government. You know what else I've noticed? Every other country in the world has a similar group of scientists and doctors and the advice being given all over is largely the same. I wonder why that might be?

One key feature of Covid coverage from the off in 2020 was debate around deviation in approaches internationally. It was notable from here to China to the UK to Sweden and the U.S.

It is a new disease, and still is relatively speaking. Making out that there was one hymnsheet written by all experts is plainly wrong. I hope you are not a user of the expression 'following THE science'. That is just for weasel politicians.

deisedevil

Honestly. I have yet to see one believable reason as to why the most intelligent people across the globe have lost their minds and are collectively creating this miserable situation for no good reason. The government aren't deciding to enforce restrictions for no good reason. They are following the advice of NPHET who are making their decisions based on the best advice they can get from their colleagues around the globe. Who out there is putting in the effort to ensure that the collective scientific minds around the world keep this going and why would they do it. There isn't one reason anyone can give that doesn't scream conspiracy theory nonsense. It is far, far more likely that what we are being told is fact is exactly just what it is.