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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #3032
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    MacronvFrugals wrote: »
    The IT have proven many times to be unreliable when speaking about the property market.

    1) They own myhome.ie

    2) They regularly have Brian Lucey on who was peddling how healthy the sub prime market was back in 2005 - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/tcd-professor-admits-being-wrong-about-housing-bubble-1.794449

    Vested interests between the Irish media and property market are blatantly apparent.

    Well it would be nice if Govt agencies would report the data in the same format and context every-time. They seem to to constantly tweak it so they can't be directly compared. Happy coincidence?


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    #3033
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    FYI. Here is the latest report titled "Putting Affordability at the Heart of the Housing System" by EY-DKM Economic Advisory Services for the Irish Home Builders Association.

    Interesting introduction letter, which states: "Limitations of Scope - We have not, except to such extent as you requested and we agreed in writing, sought to verify the accuracy of the data, information and explanations provided by yourselves, and you are solely responsible for this data, information and explanations. We have therefore relied on the information provided by you to be accurate and complete in all material respects."

    Link to the report is here: https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_ie/news/2020/08/final_doc.pdf

    P.S. I understand this is common for most of these reports, but I think it does remind that they should be read with a high degree of skepticism. But there may be something interesting in there in any case.


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    #3034
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    beauf wrote: »
    Digging around CSO I get this. Maybe someone else can check?


    Month Volume

    Jan-18 3,583
    Feb-18 3,102
    Mar-18 3,157
    Apr-18 3,170
    May-18 3,543

    16,555

    Jan-19 3,599
    Feb-19 3,007
    Mar-19 3,195
    Apr-19 3,306
    May-19 3,598

    16,705

    Jan-20 3,691
    Feb-20 2,983
    Mar-20 3,598
    Apr-20 2,351
    May-20 1,937

    14,560

    I'm sure someone will point out the mistakes I've made this time.

    Numbers seems to low, if you talk about sales.

    PPR transactions for Jan-May:
    2018 - 20,306
    2019 - 21,171
    2020 - 16,702

    Thant's the number of transactions, the actual number of property sales, should be a bit higher, as there are some transactions covering multiple properties within 1 transaction.


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    #3035
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The title on the CSO is "Household market transactions filed with Revenue" perhaps thats not the same thing.


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    #3036
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Basically, that article in IT was garbage.

    I guess someone has to pay for Fintan O Tooles pension plan and myhome is a fine vehicle for that.


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    #3037
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Why does there appear to be such a large disparity between 2 sets of data? Does 1 set of dat not include sales to commercial entities?


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    #3038
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slows-in-may-as-transactions-plunge-1.4305091%3fmode=amp
    Hubertj wrote: »
    Why does there appear to be such a large disparity between 2 sets of data? Does 1 set of dat not include sales to commercial entities?

    Maybe cyrus can help us. But it definitely is nothing like 40k. Astonishing that this was quoted here as evidence.

    Irish Times is a junk newspaper. It abandoned its paper kf record status about thirty years ago and subsequently discovered property porn.

    This was a good example of property porn.


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    #3039
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Maybe cyrus can help us. But it definitely is nothing like 40k. Astonishing that this was quoted here as evidence.

    Irish Times is a junk newspaper. It abandoned its paper kf record status about thirty years ago and subsequently discovered property porn.

    This was a good example of property porn.

    You asked where the 43k came from, I gave it to you , I never said it was correct just gave you the source.

    The big surprise is that you got a number close to right given your track record :D


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    #3040
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Maybe cyrus can help us. But it definitely is nothing like 40k. Astonishing that this was quoted here as evidence.

    Irish Times is a junk newspaper. It abandoned its paper kf record status about thirty years ago and subsequently discovered property porn.

    This was a good example of property porn.

    But someone quoted figures from PPR which are significantly higher than the CSO figures Would be interesting to understand how each is compiled.


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    #3041
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    If you thought 1966 was bad you've seen nothing yet....

    Moving on..The stats seem to from the same source but may not be captured at the same time maybe. From experience looking at agency stats some get updates some don't. You might go back looking at old stats to find they have changed.


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    #3042
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,281 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Small estate here in NCD. Two houses put on the market at the end of June. Both sale agreed marginally over asking.

    Was surprised to be honest. Thought they were mad testing the market so soon but there you go.


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    #3043
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Small estate here in NCD. Two houses put on the market at the end of June. Both sale agreed marginally indeed asking.

    Was surprised to be honest. Thought they were mad testing the market so soon but there you go.

    Thanks for sharing this. However fairly meaningless news.


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    #3044
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Hubertj wrote: »
    But someone quoted figures from PPR which are significantly higher than the CSO figures Would be interesting to understand how each is compiled.

    CSO have multiple recordings for different statistics for different case. They have as well stats on property sales that is higher than PPR, which could be expected as in some cases some bulk sales (could be REITS) are registered as one transaction
    I don't know what "Household market transactions filed with Revenue" means, but it could be that it doesn't count sales to commercial & Public (Government) entities.


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    #3045
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Thanks for sharing this. However fairly meaningless news.

    Translation ... No good news stories in case they go against the gloom and doom merchants looking too pick up a bargain.


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    #3046
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Marius34 wrote: »
    CSO have multiple recordings for different statistics for different case. They have as well stats on property sales that is higher than PPR, which could be expected as in some cases some bulk sales (could be REITS) are registered as one transaction
    I don't know what "Household market transactions filed with Revenue" means, but it could be that it doesn't count sales to commercial & Public (Government) entities.

    I was wondering what it meant also..


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    #3047
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    beauf wrote: »
    Translation ... No good news stories in case they go against the gloom and doom merchants looking too pick up a bargain.

    Just read it at face value. That is easier.


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    #3048
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,281 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Thanks for sharing this. However fairly meaningless news.

    :rolleyes:

    Did I claim it to be meaningful? It's clearly anecdotal.


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    #3049
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,182 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    RTE have an article on a report from Irish home builders association saying that we need 38K new homes /year for next 20 years. It says that we have only seen a 1% increase/year on average for the last 10 years on building costs. Construction prices in 2010 would have been well down off the high of 2006/7.

    Now I know it a vested interest report but most reports show that we are not building enough houses at present. While 38k/year may be egging the pudding completely, we are only at 17-18K in 2019 and will be back off that this year. Even if Aer BnB houses and WFH relieves some of the pressure in the short term its hard to see supply exceeding demand to cause any collapse. Affordability is the issue however unless developers can reduce finance and land costs and Government reduces levies and vat it hard to see new build prices drop by anything above 10% in the medium term in Dublin.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #3050
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    RTE have an article on a report from Irish home builders association saying that we need 38K new homes /year for next 20 years. It says that we have only seen a 1% increase/year on average for the last 10 years on building costs. Construction prices in 2010 would have been well down off the high of 2006/7.

    Now I know it a vested interest report but most reports show that we are not building enough houses at present. While 38k/year may be egging the pudding completely, we are only at 17-18K in 2019 and will be back off that this year. Even if Aer BnB houses and WFH relieves some of the pressure in the short term its hard to see supply exceeding demand to cause any collapse. Affordability is the issue however unless developers can reduce finance and land costs and Government reduces levies and vat it hard to see new build prices drop by anything above 10% in the medium term in Dublin.

    Orla Hegarty, Assistant Professor of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy at UCD, had an interesting comment on the report:
    She said we've seen a series of industry led reports in recent times that have presented the same conclusions without really interrogating the problem.

    "They all come from a similar background which is to say housing is very expensive and out of reach from people, that the demand is enormous in the market and maybe over inflating those figures and that the only solution really is to de-regulate and provide subsidies," she claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1298697097378697218


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    #3051
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    We've been talking about this since before the last crash. Something like 15 yrs or more.

    Pretty late to the party to only notice this now. The figures for completions over time are well documented as is the lack of interest in the sector on public and affordable housing completions and the creating reports by the govt on it.


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    #3052
    shatners bassoon
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭shatners bassoon


    https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/192-philipsburgh-avenue-marino-fairview-dublin-d03-c5f3#gallery-62

    I posted a thread last weekend about a property on a main road next to traffic lights in Marino. It went sale agreed yesterday evening at 95k over asking.


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    #3053
    cubatahavana
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭cubatahavana


    shatners bassoon wrote: »
    https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/192-philipsburgh-avenue-marino-fairview-dublin-d03-c5f3#gallery-62

    I posted a thread last weekend about a property on a main road next to traffic lights in Marino. It went sale agreed yesterday evening at 95k over asking.

    20% over asking, not bad at all


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    #3054
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    shatners bassoon wrote: »
    https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/192-philipsburgh-avenue-marino-fairview-dublin-d03-c5f3#gallery-62

    I posted a thread last weekend about a property on a main road next to traffic lights in Marino. It went sale agreed yesterday evening at 95k over asking.

    This won't go down well in this thread.

    The buyer will soon be called a lemming, a sheep, on their last legs with their mortgage approval and desperate to buy. Someone who wants to live in a shoebox !!!



    Lovely house, can see why it achieved that figure.


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    #3055
    Knex*
    Registered Users Posts: 22,477 ✭✭✭✭Knex*


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    This won't go down well in this thread.

    The buyer will soon be called a lemming, a sheep, on their last legs with their mortgage approval and desperate to buy. Someone who wants to live in a shoebox !!!



    Lovely house, can see why it achieved that figure.

    Jeez, I must admit, I'm struggling to see why anyone would pay that much for it I have to say.


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    #3056
    shatners bassoon
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭shatners bassoon


    It was very entertaining watching it all unfold on Auctioneera yesterday.

    I suspect there were a lot of people bidding on that house anyway but I was struck by how easy it would be for the vendor / a friend to log in and bid away to up the price.


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    #3057
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ready to move into houses are moving quick.
    And yes, people whose approval is nearly up are buying quick.
    But I can't see that lasting too long. Won't stop me buying though, if I see the right house. Doesn't matter to me if the value goes down after I buy.
    They will go down though, absolutely.


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    #3058
    hometruths
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,797 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Knex* wrote: »
    Jeez, I must admit, I'm struggling to see why anyone would pay that much for it I have to say.

    Because they are smart ballsy buyers, canny and savvy enough to recognise the value on offer.


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    #3059
    shatners bassoon
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭shatners bassoon


    This thread is absolutely toxic these days


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    #3060
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Knex* wrote: »
    Jeez, I must admit, I'm struggling to see why anyone would pay that much for it I have to say.

    If you wanted to live in that area either because you're from that area or work nearby and are on a great salary and want a turn key period property finished to a high standard.

    If any of things are not you, it won't make any sense. You have to look at these things from a different perspective than your own.


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    #3061
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,681 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    shatners bassoon wrote: »
    It was very entertaining watching it all unfold on Auctioneera yesterday.

    I suspect there were a lot of people bidding on that house anyway but I was struck by how easy it would be for the vendor / a friend to log in and bid away to up the price.

    Pretty risky game that


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