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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Pelezico

Basically, that article in IT was garbage.

I guess someone has to pay for Fintan O Tooles pension plan and myhome is a fine vehicle for that.

Hubertj

Why does there appear to be such a large disparity between 2 sets of data? Does 1 set of dat not include sales to commercial entities?

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-price-growth-slows-in-may-as-transactions-plunge-1.4305091%3fmode=amp

Hubertj wrote: »

Why does there appear to be such a large disparity between 2 sets of data? Does 1 set of dat not include sales to commercial entities?

Maybe cyrus can help us. But it definitely is nothing like 40k. Astonishing that this was quoted here as evidence.

Irish Times is a junk newspaper. It abandoned its paper kf record status about thirty years ago and subsequently discovered property porn.

This was a good example of property porn.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Maybe cyrus can help us. But it definitely is nothing like 40k. Astonishing that this was quoted here as evidence.

Irish Times is a junk newspaper. It abandoned its paper kf record status about thirty years ago and subsequently discovered property porn.

This was a good example of property porn.

You asked where the 43k came from, I gave it to you , I never said it was correct just gave you the source.

The big surprise is that you got a number close to right given your track record

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

Maybe cyrus can help us. But it definitely is nothing like 40k. Astonishing that this was quoted here as evidence.

Irish Times is a junk newspaper. It abandoned its paper kf record status about thirty years ago and subsequently discovered property porn.

This was a good example of property porn.

But someone quoted figures from PPR which are significantly higher than the CSO figures Would be interesting to understand how each is compiled.

beauf

If you thought 1966 was bad you've seen nothing yet....

Moving on..The stats seem to from the same source but may not be captured at the same time maybe. From experience looking at agency stats some get updates some don't. You might go back looking at old stats to find they have changed.

lawred2

Small estate here in NCD. Two houses put on the market at the end of June. Both sale agreed marginally over asking.

Was surprised to be honest. Thought they were mad testing the market so soon but there you go.

Pelezico

lawred2 wrote: »

Small estate here in NCD. Two houses put on the market at the end of June. Both sale agreed marginally indeed asking.

Was surprised to be honest. Thought they were mad testing the market so soon but there you go.

Thanks for sharing this. However fairly meaningless news.

Marius34

Hubertj wrote: »

But someone quoted figures from PPR which are significantly higher than the CSO figures Would be interesting to understand how each is compiled.

CSO have multiple recordings for different statistics for different case. They have as well stats on property sales that is higher than PPR, which could be expected as in some cases some bulk sales (could be REITS) are registered as one transaction
I don't know what "Household market transactions filed with Revenue" means, but it could be that it doesn't count sales to commercial & Public (Government) entities.

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

Thanks for sharing this. However fairly meaningless news.

Translation ... No good news stories in case they go against the gloom and doom merchants looking too pick up a bargain.

beauf

Marius34 wrote: »

CSO have multiple recordings for different statistics for different case. They have as well stats on property sales that is higher than PPR, which could be expected as in some cases some bulk sales (could be REITS) are registered as one transaction
I don't know what "Household market transactions filed with Revenue" means, but it could be that it doesn't count sales to commercial & Public (Government) entities.

I was wondering what it meant also..

Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

Translation ... No good news stories in case they go against the gloom and doom merchants looking too pick up a bargain.

Just read it at face value. That is easier.

lawred2

Pelezico wrote: »

Thanks for sharing this. However fairly meaningless news.

:rolleyes:

Did I claim it to be meaningful? It's clearly anecdotal.

Bass Reeves

RTE have an article on a report from Irish home builders association saying that we need 38K new homes /year for next 20 years. It says that we have only seen a 1% increase/year on average for the last 10 years on building costs. Construction prices in 2010 would have been well down off the high of 2006/7.

Now I know it a vested interest report but most reports show that we are not building enough houses at present. While 38k/year may be egging the pudding completely, we are only at 17-18K in 2019 and will be back off that this year. Even if Aer BnB houses and WFH relieves some of the pressure in the short term its hard to see supply exceeding demand to cause any collapse. Affordability is the issue however unless developers can reduce finance and land costs and Government reduces levies and vat it hard to see new build prices drop by anything above 10% in the medium term in Dublin.

hometruths

Bass Reeves wrote: »

RTE have an article on a report from Irish home builders association saying that we need 38K new homes /year for next 20 years. It says that we have only seen a 1% increase/year on average for the last 10 years on building costs. Construction prices in 2010 would have been well down off the high of 2006/7.

Now I know it a vested interest report but most reports show that we are not building enough houses at present. While 38k/year may be egging the pudding completely, we are only at 17-18K in 2019 and will be back off that this year. Even if Aer BnB houses and WFH relieves some of the pressure in the short term its hard to see supply exceeding demand to cause any collapse. Affordability is the issue however unless developers can reduce finance and land costs and Government reduces levies and vat it hard to see new build prices drop by anything above 10% in the medium term in Dublin.

Orla Hegarty, Assistant Professor of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Policy at UCD, had an interesting comment on the report:

She said we've seen a series of industry led reports in recent times that have presented the same conclusions without really interrogating the problem.

"They all come from a similar background which is to say housing is very expensive and out of reach from people, that the demand is enormous in the market and maybe over inflating those figures and that the only solution really is to de-regulate and provide subsidies," she claimed.

https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1298697097378697218

beauf

We've been talking about this since before the last crash. Something like 15 yrs or more.

Pretty late to the party to only notice this now. The figures for completions over time are well documented as is the lack of interest in the sector on public and affordable housing completions and the creating reports by the govt on it.

shatners bassoon

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/192-philipsburgh-avenue-marino-fairview-dublin-d03-c5f3#gallery-62

I posted a thread last weekend about a property on a main road next to traffic lights in Marino. It went sale agreed yesterday evening at 95k over asking.

cubatahavana

shatners bassoon wrote: »

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/192-philipsburgh-avenue-marino-fairview-dublin-d03-c5f3#gallery-62

I posted a thread last weekend about a property on a main road next to traffic lights in Marino. It went sale agreed yesterday evening at 95k over asking.

20% over asking, not bad at all

TheSheriff

shatners bassoon wrote: »

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/192-philipsburgh-avenue-marino-fairview-dublin-d03-c5f3#gallery-62

I posted a thread last weekend about a property on a main road next to traffic lights in Marino. It went sale agreed yesterday evening at 95k over asking.

This won't go down well in this thread.

The buyer will soon be called a lemming, a sheep, on their last legs with their mortgage approval and desperate to buy. Someone who wants to live in a shoebox !!!

Lovely house, can see why it achieved that figure.

Knex*

TheSheriff wrote: »

This won't go down well in this thread.

The buyer will soon be called a lemming, a sheep, on their last legs with their mortgage approval and desperate to buy. Someone who wants to live in a shoebox !!!

Lovely house, can see why it achieved that figure.

Jeez, I must admit, I'm struggling to see why anyone would pay that much for it I have to say.

shatners bassoon

It was very entertaining watching it all unfold on Auctioneera yesterday.

I suspect there were a lot of people bidding on that house anyway but I was struck by how easy it would be for the vendor / a friend to log in and bid away to up the price.

[Deleted User]

Ready to move into houses are moving quick.
And yes, people whose approval is nearly up are buying quick.
But I can't see that lasting too long. Won't stop me buying though, if I see the right house. Doesn't matter to me if the value goes down after I buy.
They will go down though, absolutely.

hometruths

Knex* wrote: »

Jeez, I must admit, I'm struggling to see why anyone would pay that much for it I have to say.

Because they are smart ballsy buyers, canny and savvy enough to recognise the value on offer.

shatners bassoon

This thread is absolutely toxic these days

beauf

Knex* wrote: »

Jeez, I must admit, I'm struggling to see why anyone would pay that much for it I have to say.

If you wanted to live in that area either because you're from that area or work nearby and are on a great salary and want a turn key period property finished to a high standard.

If any of things are not you, it won't make any sense. You have to look at these things from a different perspective than your own.

Cyrus

shatners bassoon wrote: »

It was very entertaining watching it all unfold on Auctioneera yesterday.

I suspect there were a lot of people bidding on that house anyway but I was struck by how easy it would be for the vendor / a friend to log in and bid away to up the price.

Pretty risky game that

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

Because they are smart ballsy buyers, canny and savvy enough to recognise the value on offer.

That was Brendan O Connors famous article just at the top of the last peak. He probably pulled a few last suckers in.

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

Pretty risky game that

EA just says the fake bidder failed to provide proof of funds and the property goes to the highest real bidder
Not saying it happened in this instance but it’s one scenario.
Moral is
Have a max price you are willing to pay for the property and walk away once that is reached

Billythekid19

beauf wrote: »

If you wanted to live in that area either because you're from that area or work nearby and are on a great salary and want a turn key period property finished to a high standard.

If any of things are not you, it won't make any sense. You have to look at these things from a different perspective than your own.

Fairly grim area all the same. It would certainly be mentally draining over time waking up early to go to work when lots of your neighbours are fast asleep subsidized by your taxes.

handlemaster

Whats the market like now, haven't been following this thread for a while ? There seems to have been alot of property going on Daft over the last few weeks in Dublin. Prices don't seem to have come down. I guess there should be a drop coming alot of people have been affected with job loses and cut backs in hours since the start of the year.