Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

hometruths

beauf wrote: »

Well thats the Govt who decided to bankroll the gamblers. But thats an entirely different issue.

If by gambler you are meaning developers, I am not referring to them.

I am talking about the sort of ordinary homeowners who felt hard done by the last time property prices went down.

Consultant sets up ‘NAMA beag’ for homeowners

Retired solicitor Andrew Dillon said it was time ordinary people who had been lent extraordinary amounts came together and forced action...

...The Government has made no provision whatsoever to assist people who purchased all these houses at hugely inflated prices...

...NAMA Beag will then encourage its members to simultaneously cease payment of mortgages to all financial institutions until such time as negotiations begin.

fret_wimp2

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

A lot of the locals are moving to Finglas after being priced out.

How are they priced out if they are in social housing as is the suggestion in the thread so far?

MacronvFrugals

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

How are they priced out if they are in social housing as is the suggestion in the thread so far?

I live here now and many couples on <50k between them go for the RI scheme and buy in an area they can afford close to family, its Finglas.

The Luas extension pumped prices big time and i know they've being dropping somewhat since late 2018 but are still out of the reach of a lot of people going for mortgages whether that be RI or a bank loan.

Its tough to compete with people who traditionally bought in Castleknock, bidding quickly becomes crazy for ex council houses with a small extension.

Most of Cabra is now private houses and many kids of parents who grew up there are priced out unfortunately, thats the market though.

fret_wimp2

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I live here now and many couples on <50k between them go for the RI scheme and buy in an area they can afford close to family, its Finglas.

The Luas extension pumped prices big time and i know they've being dropping somewhat since late 2018 but are still out of the reach of a lot of people going for mortgages whether that be RI or a bank loan.

Its tough to compete with people who traditionally bought in Castleknock, bidding quickly becomes crazy for ex council houses with a small extension.

Most of Cabra is now private houses and many kids of parents who grew up there are priced out unfortunately, thats the market though.

For sure, but those couples looking to buy a home and being pushed to Finglas are not the ones chucking stones at trains! Even if they were 20 years ago, the fact that they are earning and trying to buy a home would make me think their stone throwing days are over!

So pushing these type of families to finglas isnt the cause of the reduction of antisocial behavior in Broombridge. If anything, this type of family is just helping with the gentrification of finglas.

MacronvFrugals

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

For sure, but those couples looking to buy a home and being pushed to Finglas are not the ones chucking stones at trains! Even if they were 20 years ago, the fact that they are earning and trying to buy a home would make me think their stone throwing days are over!

So pushing these type of families to finglas isnt the cause of the reduction of antisocial behavior in Broombridge. If anything, this type of family is just helping with the gentrification of finglas.

Tbh the anti-social behavior has fallen everywhere for 1 reason, why throw stones or anything like that when the drug market is increasingly lucrative, add onto that the increasing numbers of middle class families with disposable income sweating for their weekly fix and things like stone throwing become unattractive.

It paints a grim view but thats the reality, on the surface crime is reduced but the underside is staggering amounts of drug use/sale.

fret_wimp2

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Tbh the anti-social behavior has fallen everywhere for 1 reason, why throw stones or anything like that when the drug market is increasingly lucrative, add onto that the increasing numbers of middle class families with disposable income sweating for their weekly fix and things like stone throwing become unattractive.

It paints a grim view but thats the reality, on the surface crime is reduced but the underside is staggering amounts of drug use/sale.

Grim picture to be sure, and im not in a position to contest or agree with it, but i would say it doesnt make sense that middle class families who are looking to buy or already have a mortgage are spending the bulk of their money on supporting a habit.

No doubt it happens in some cases but its hardly the norm thats pushing such large societal change. These people will have bills etc to pay so burglaries & muggings would still be very commonplace, when in actuality they are quite rare.

MacronvFrugals

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Grim picture to be sure, and im not in a position to contest or agree with it, but i would say it doesnt make sense that middle class families who are looking to buy or already have a mortgage are spending the bulk of their money on supporting a habit.

No doubt it happens in some cases but its hardly the norm thats pushing such large societal change. These people will have bills etc to pay so burglaries & muggings would still be very commonplace, when in actuality they are quite rare.

I understand what you're saying but i dont think you realize the scale, it may only be 100-150 Euro a week but enough people and it starts to become very lucrative to feed this habit. Check out this book its a great piece on the topic from an Irish perspective - https://www.bookdepository.com/High-Society-Justine-Delaney-Wilson/9780717141784?ref=grid-view&qid=1598540613782&sr=1-9

Of course theres lots of locals with the same problems but they normally cant afford the expensive goodies.

What i'm saying is anecdotal but i work in one of the local youth clubs as a volunteer teaching basic computer skills and these are things the teenagers tell me.

A lot of this comes back to the gutting of youth clubs and things like SNAs post 2008, what did we think would happen to those kids a lot of who had learning difficulties, these what i would call freckles are starting to only appear now.

This isnt the place but just to say on the surface crime is reduced but you can get a bag of cocaine quicker than a pizza.

I do hope these issues improve and i'm hopeful they will.

Pelezico

Guys ..this thread is not a sociology forum. It is about the housing market.

MacronvFrugals

Pelezico wrote: »

Guys ..this thread is not a sociology forum. It is about the housing market.

Guilty as charged:)

fret_wimp2

Pelezico wrote: »

Guys ..this thread is not a sociology forum. It is about the housing market.

and were discussing gentrifiation, being priced out of an area and the causes of this, just like you discussing the causes of a recession a few pages back.

Its as relevant as some of your posts.

If youre not a mod, dont moderate. report any issues and let them deal with it.

mariaalice

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Grim picture to be sure, and im not in a position to contest or agree with it, but i would say it doesnt make sense that middle class families who are looking to buy or already have a mortgage are spending the bulk of their money on supporting a habit.

No doubt it happens in some cases but its hardly the norm thats pushing such large societal change. These people will have bills etc to pay so burglaries & muggings would still be very commonplace, when in actuality they are quite rare.

The price of household goods is so cheap it's nearly not worth robbing, increasingly cashless society make there is less likely to be a large amount of cash found in a robbery, valuable cars and machinery have trackers so harder to get rid of when robbed, the risk versus the reward has changed. The dog robbing was quick easy money for a while but that is getting sorted too.

There is still lots of low level antsocial behaviour and vandalism.

Society is getting wealther and there are more opportunities and more support and intervetions so less taking to crime because of lack of options or eduction, less lifestyles that mix low level crime and insecure work which is product of poverty.

Anyone involved in crime now in ireland more or less chooses criminality for a variety of reason including personality disorders.( not everybody with a personality disorder is going to become a criminal )

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I understand what you're saying but i dont think you realize the scale, it may only be 100-150 Euro a week but enough people and it starts to become very lucrative to feed this habit. Check out this book its a great piece on the topic from an Irish perspective - https://www.bookdepository.com/High-Society-Justine-Delaney-Wilson/9780717141784?ref=grid-view&qid=1598540613782&sr=1-9

Of course theres lots of locals with the same problems but they normally cant afford the expensive goodies.

What i'm saying is anecdotal but i work in one of the local youth clubs as a volunteer teaching basic computer skills and these are things the teenagers tell me.

A lot of this comes back to the gutting of youth clubs and things like SNAs post 2008, what did we think would happen to those kids a lot of who had learning difficulties, these what i would call freckles are starting to only appear now.

This isnt the place but just to say on the surface crime is reduced but you can get a bag of cocaine quicker than a pizza.

I do hope these issues improve and i'm hopeful they will.

As a recent arrest during lockdown proved you can get both at the same time

tigger123

beauf wrote: »

Well thats the Govt who decided to bankroll the gamblers. But thats an entirely different issue.

On a rare bus ride through Cabra I noticed some near mansion like refurbs of old period housing around the place. Wasn't obvious from the road. II was pretty shocked. I wonder in 25yrs or so if these places will look very different.

At the rate the Government is moving with housing policy (which is at a glacial rate), proximity to the city centre is going to become more and more attractive in Dublin in years to come.

More traditionally working class areas which are close (or close enough) to town are going to be seriously gentrified.

MacronvFrugals

mariaalice wrote: »

The price of household goods is so cheap it's nearly not worth robbing, increasingly cashless society make there is less likely to be a large amount of cash found in a robbery, valuable cars and machinery have trackers so harder to get rid of when robbed, the risk versus the reward has changed. The dog robbing was quick easy money for a while but that is getting sorted too.

There is still lots of low level antsocial behaviour and vandalism.

Society is getting wealther and there are more opportunities and more support and intervetions so less taking to crime because of lack of options or eduction, less lifestyles that mix low level crime and insecure work which is product of poverty.

Anyone involved in crime now in ireland more or less chooses criminality for a variety of reason including personality disorders.( not everybody with a personality disorder is going to become a criminal )

Cant argue with any of that, there's great opportunities in Ireland if you have the intelligence/drive for college etc.

Having one of the highest proportions of workers on minimum wage in the EU is something we need to tackle -

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/proportion-of-irish-workers-on-minimum-wage-is-one-of-the-highest-rates-in-the-eu-92br0vdxn

We're very good at social progression but having lived in places like Finalnd and Norway we're in a different league and thats ok hopefully one day we'll be there.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Guys ..this thread is not a sociology forum. It is about the housing market.

Thanks, we’re all guilty of veering off Sometimes and it’s good to reminded to revert back. Here’s my one to get some discussion going:

23 Glenbourne Grove, Dublin 18

PPR Selling Price - 04/06/2013 = €350,000
PPR Selling Price - 08/10/2018 = €505,000
MyHome Asking Price - 27/08/2020 = €495,000

MyHome link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-glenbourne-grove-dublin-18-dublin/4450598 2

The June 2020 CSO Residential Property Price Index stated that “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”.

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks, we’re all guilty of veering off Sometimes and it’s good to reminded to revert back. Here’s my one to get some discussion going:

23 Glenbourne Grove, Dublin 18

PPR Selling Price - 04/06/2013 = €350,000
PPR Selling Price - 08/10/2018 = €505,000
MyHome Asking Price - 27/08/2020 = €495,000

MyHome link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-glenbourne-grove-dublin-18-dublin/4450598 2

The June 2020 CSO Residential Property Price Index stated that “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”.

Needs an overhaul and a wallpaper stripper
What is with the long narrow rooms .
No idea of the area but that house needs at least 50k to make it modern

beauf

Out of curiosity what will take to make it "modern"...

Billythekid19

House prices rise by 4.3% amid lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, report says
MyHome.ie/Davy survey suggests prices nationally rose between June and August

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks, we’re all guilty of veering off Sometimes and it’s good to reminded to revert back. Here’s my one to get some discussion going:

23 Glenbourne Grove, Dublin 18

PPR Selling Price - 04/06/2013 = €350,000
PPR Selling Price - 08/10/2018 = €505,000
MyHome Asking Price - 27/08/2020 = €495,000

MyHome link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-glenbourne-grove-dublin-18-dublin/4450598 2

The June 2020 CSO Residential Property Price Index stated that “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”.

I sold there in 2016. Tbh, I think the houses are overpriced, but it seems to be the area that people want.

brisan

beauf wrote: »

Out of curiosity what will take to make it "modern"...

New kitchen ,new flooring ,new built in wardrobes and a total repaint top to bottom for starters
Bathroom could do with an update but its serviceable

into_the_wild

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks, we’re all guilty of veering off Sometimes and it’s good to reminded to revert back. Here’s my one to get some discussion going:

23 Glenbourne Grove, Dublin 18

PPR Selling Price - 04/06/2013 = €350,000
PPR Selling Price - 08/10/2018 = €505,000
MyHome Asking Price - 27/08/2020 = €495,000

MyHome link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-glenbourne-grove-dublin-18-dublin/4450598 2

The June 2020 CSO Residential Property Price Index stated that “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”.

I wouldn't pay 495k for that no way considering the area is swarmed with unruly teenagers hanging about at the nearby spar. I know someone personally who was harassed by those teens at the same luas stop.
Will be interesting to see how much that actually goes for eventually.

beauf

into_the_wild wrote: »

I wouldn't pay 495k for that no way considering the area is swarmed with unruly teenagers hanging about at the nearby spar. I know someone personally who was harassed by those teens at the same luas stop.
Will be interesting to see how much that actually goes for eventually.

Most local shops have the same.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks, we’re all guilty of veering off Sometimes and it’s good to reminded to revert back. Here’s my one to get some discussion going:

23 Glenbourne Grove, Dublin 18

PPR Selling Price - 04/06/2013 = €350,000
PPR Selling Price - 08/10/2018 = €505,000
MyHome Asking Price - 27/08/2020 = €495,000

MyHome link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-glenbourne-grove-dublin-18-dublin/4450598 2

The June 2020 CSO Residential Property Price Index stated that “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”.

Can you just make whatever point you are inferring so we don’t need to guess , is it that the asking is less than it sold for in 18 or you are suggesting it should be 700k if the cso ppi is correct ?

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks, we’re all guilty of veering off Sometimes and it’s good to reminded to revert back. Here’s my one to get some discussion going:

23 Glenbourne Grove, Dublin 18

PPR Selling Price - 04/06/2013 = €350,000
PPR Selling Price - 08/10/2018 = €505,000
MyHome Asking Price - 27/08/2020 = €495,000

MyHome link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-glenbourne-grove-dublin-18-dublin/4450598 2

The June 2020 CSO Residential Property Price Index stated that “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”.

Not sure if this needs to be said, but you do realise the CSO figure is based on an aggregate. It does not mean that every single house in Dublin increased by 90% odd percentage. It's a spread. Some will have increased much more, some much less.

Cyrus

TheSheriff wrote: »

Not sure if this needs to be said, but you do realise the CSO figure is based on an aggregate. It does not mean that every single house in Dublin increased by 90% odd percentage. It's a spread. Some will have increased much more, some much less.

It shouldn’t need to be said but I think it’s warranted here.

Also decreases were larger in less desirable areas, certain areas will only drop so far.

Assetbacked

Billythekid19 wrote: »

House prices rise by 4.3% amid lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, report says
MyHome.ie/Davy survey suggests prices nationally rose between June and August

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR3oDlddnpkizvfiT_Ij2gDWA4hrN_E9SbzQ7RLYqpvH_XOqESBoyhw6KyY

Great to see, everything is rosy and stable. Covid didn't have an impact after all. Davy and MyHome wouldn't have a bias anyway.

The impact of covid won't show in data for at least another year, after the Q2 reports.

There are some things to note about this article;

- it is based on asking prices and not actual prices.

- mortgage approvals down 34% YoY.

- purchase mortgage approval activity fell by 35.8 per cent year-on-year in terms of volume in the month, and by 33.2 per cent in value.

- Angela Keegan, managing director of MyHome.ie, said the increase in asking prices was likely a combination of people who already have mortgage approval moving to secure properties, and a shortage of stock.

- “Looking ahead we think prices will be broadly flat in 2020, or see marginal declines, but the impact of Covid-19 on the housing market could have a longer, [more] slow-burn impact than many appreciate,”.

- experts had predicted a significant downturn in housing demand due to falling incomes and higher rates of unemployment, resulting in falling prices. It says "had" but this is still valid as the housing market is slow to react and the government is still paying pandemic supports.

- residential investment letting approval volumes were down 48.4 per cent year-on-year to 80 in July.

- The Central Statistics Office’s (CSO)Residential Property Price Index for June indicated property prices nationally rose by 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to June, but were down 0.7 per cent in Dublin, where supply pressures are most acute. This would be pre-Covid showing a gentle cooling of the market anyway.

- The figures also pointed to a 33 per cent drop in the number of transactions in June compared with the same month last year. The index, however, primarily reflected activity before the coronavirus-related shutdown.

fret_wimp2

brisan wrote: »

New kitchen ,new flooring ,new built in wardrobes and a total repaint top to bottom for starters
Bathroom could do with an update but its serviceable

Kitchen, flooring, wardrobes are all fine. not the prettiest but in good condition and wouldnt stop anyone moiving in.
Painting can be done when you move in.
Bathroom is fine, again, not the most stylish but nothing wrong with it.

Everybody wants to move into somewhere pristine, nobody wants to work on a place anymore.

Is ready to move in as is, and could be improved over a few months without gutting it.

fret_wimp2

into_the_wild wrote: »

I wouldn't pay 495k for that no way considering the area is swarmed with unruly teenagers hanging about at the nearby spar. I know someone personally who was harassed by those teens at the same luas stop.
Will be interesting to see how much that actually goes for eventually.

"hanging about", is the biggest issue? Its what teenagers do!
Aside from moving to a house thats miles from the nearest neighbor, there will be people "hanging about", aka, chatting, socializing.

JJJackal

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-rise-by-4-3-amid-lifting-of-covid-19-restrictions-report-says-1.4340523?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR3oDlddnpkizvfiT_Ij2gDWA4hrN_E9SbzQ7RLYqpvH_XOqESBoyhw6KyY

Great to see, everything is rosy and stable. Covid didn't have an impact after all. Davy and MyHome wouldn't have a bias anyway.

The impact of covid won't show in data for at least another year, after the Q2 reports.

You say the COVID impact wont show for some time - I agree

However if there was a vaccine or treatment in January for example will it ever show. A vaccine will boost markets, confidence, spending etc etc

Assetbacked

JJJackal wrote: »

You say the COVID impact wont show for some time - I agree

However if there was a vaccine or treatment in January for example will it ever show. A vaccine will boost markets, confidence, spending etc etc

Where will the money come from though?