Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

Wolf359f wrote: »

I think the worry is the clusters leaking and causing more community transmission. This could already be happening slowly (remember the virus spreads rapidly in the factories and direct provision, but much slower in the public due to measures taken by the public)

So rather than a wait a see approach with community transmission, they are getting ahead of it to stop or greatly disrupt the chain of transmission.
So we could see a rise next week in community transmission in LOK and then a reduction in it the week after.

Yeah hopefully there isn’t much “leakage”. Although I wonder, if a guy is asymptotic and he comes home from work and he is in a house with his family of 5, the wife and kids go shopping and meet friends That they may or may not SD etc, then he gets tested and is told to self isolate a couple of days later.
The family are close contacts so I presume they are told to self isolate also.
What about The friends they met on the shopping trip? Do they receive a phone call to self isolate? What if those friends met other friends, and so forth?

The population of the 3 counties is 385000...
this is daft but should they try over the next 4/5 weeks test everyone of them?

Flying through the threads now beasty......sign of things to come...new thread before the weekend is out...

Aisha Slimy Trapezoid wrote: »

What your up against is a docile, servile generation of young people who choose to ignore the reality around them and spend most of their time in an alternate reality that is the internet where they believe everything they are told.

Just to bust that bubble I'm an ordinary Joe hitting 50 who's partner has been on the front line fighting this virus in a dublin hospital. Although a few loons have accused her of being an actor before so nothing surprises me. Do give me a shout and I'm sure the doctors and nurses in the hospital would be delighted to arrange a visit if we got a serious spike and people and up dieing again in the covid ward.

tom1ie wrote: »

Yeah hopefully there isn’t much “leakage”. Although I wonder, if a guy is asymptotic and he comes home from work and he is in a house with his family of 5, the wife and kids go shopping and meet friends That they may or may not SD etc, then he gets tested and is told to self isolate a couple of days later.
The family are close contacts so I presume they are told to self isolate also.
What about The friends they met on the shopping trip? Do they receive a phone call to self isolate? What if those friends met other friends, and so forth?

The family would be considered a close contact of the husband and asked to be tested on day Zero and 7. If they return a positive, they would then contact trace friends they meet while shopping and those friends would be asked to be tested.
And again if they test positive their contacts would be traced and tested and so on. Hence the reason for SD and also keeping contacts small. Having a fast contact tracing and testing system is critical, once it's faster than the incubation period, you can stay ahead of the train of transmission and cut it off.

But the high number of asymptomatic cases would certainly be a cause of concern. They could have been out and about for days and potentially infecting people (strangers) which would be then be classed as community spread.

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Let's hope this #LOKdown works

Just like the first one which was such a success...here we go again

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And everyone knows the chamber of commerce have the competence to make public health decisions

Lol

They complained of receiving no consultation whatsoever from the government or NPHET.

Do you expect to win the debate around lockdown in perpetuity by informing people that they are mere laymen in a purely scientific matter? It's a bold strategy raind, lets see how it plays in the coming months and years.

Wolf359f wrote: »

The family would be considered a close contact of the husband and asked to be tested on day Zero and 7. If they return a positive, they would then contact trace friends they meet while shopping and those friends would be asked to be tested.
And again if they test positive their contacts would be traced and tested and so on. Hence the reason for SD and also keeping contacts small. Having a fast contact tracing and testing system is critical, once it's faster than the incubation period, you can stay ahead of the train of transmission and cut it off.

But the high number of asymptomatic cases would certainly be a cause of concern. They could have been out and about for days and potentially infecting people (strangers) which would be then be classed as community spread.

Yeah agreed.
Thing is the family are tested at day zero and day 7 if they test positive at 0and then at 7, if they met the Other family @day 2, that Means there have been 5 days where the other family have been interacting with people and not self isolating.
There’s no way contact tracing can keep up in that case.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which politicians or party would have handled the pandemic better?

Any of them, people are dying, future gravely uncertain and the leader of the country, when inspiration and leadership is required of 1916 proportions , he’s quoting mean girls. That’s what the history books will say. :rolleyes:

The saying.... “Better to Remain Silent and Be Thought a Fool than to Speak and Remove All Doubt” would apply to him and that situation.... :mad:

Wolf359f wrote: »

Oh I know exactly what you mean. This LOK lockdown, if they manage to isolate all cases and don't get much community transmission, it would be an amazing success. But people will think the lockdown was a waste.

But it’s not a lockdown! People can still leave their houses to collect takeaway, get their haircut etc.
They can still leave their county on essential travel. Essential travel is deemed as work, it is in the horse racing industry anyway as the curragh races are going ahead anyway.

Aisha Slimy Trapezoid wrote: »

Do you think, there is just the slight, tiny possibility that this virus is not as dangerous as we first expected and that we can only make assumptions based on the information we have rather than speculating in what might happen or that I "might" have the virus.

The information we have is that there 19 communal infections in the last 5 days, 19!!! We also know that the majority of people recover from the virus and have mild symptoms, we also know that there is a very low chance of death from the virus but yet the whole country is in upheaval because a tiny fraction of the population have contracted an unremarkable virus.

It's amazing how many people cannot understand how serious this virus is and can be for people of all ages. It's not an 'unremarkable virus', and that only a small minority of people in the country contracted it is not due to a lack of infectiousness but due to extreme efforts undertaken to control its spread. Left unchecked this virus would have caused carnage. Have you already forgotten the last few months of lockdown?

Of the 26,470 of us who are known to have contracted the virus, 6.8% have died. Extrapolating for the entire population of country would mean 330k deaths, i.e more than the population of Galway. Of course that number is skewed significantly by deaths of people in the later stages of their lives. Even so, a death rate of just 10% of that value would be an absolute travesty. Those who did unfortunately pass away also had the advantage of being cared for in a functioning healthcare system. If the system is overrun then people, regardless of age, will not be treated and mortality rates will go through the roof.

And mortality is only one part of this. Have a look at reports from around the world on the longer lasting effects of having covid. Young people are being left with chronuc lifelong damage to their lungs, cardiovascular systems and suffering from long term fatigue. I was unfortunate enough to pick this up very early in the year and I still haven't recovered fully despite having been a quite moderate case. For two months I was out of breath after climbing a set of stairs, and any sort of physical exercise would have me ready for bed. This is from an active guy in his late 20s who played football 4 times per week. Even now I find myself sweating profusely doing the easiest of physical activity. Make no mistake that this is a serious virus that can be life altering to absolutely anybody.