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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #1472
    woodchuck
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 15,409 Mod ✭✭✭✭woodchuck


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Well, I dont consider financial prudence to be greed. There is always another house.

    That's not a risk I'm willing to take. I've already explained our personal circumstances and the lack of supply in the area we want.

    If this sale falls through, I'm genuinely concerned that we'll be stuck renting the apartment we're in for the foreseeable future.

    And like I said, we're well beyond sale agreed, so I don't think it's even possible to re-negotiate the price at this stage anyway.


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    #1473
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    woodchuck wrote: »
    And like I said, we're well beyond sale agreed, so I don't think it's even possible to re-negotiate the price at this stage anyway.

    There is also really no evidence that prices have dropped yet. Particularly if there is a low volume of sales at that price point in your chosen area.


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    #1474
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Markitron wrote: »
    I know its a nice area and all, but paying even that much for a house in that state thats 2 minutes from Swords seems mental to me.

    Its a 10 min walk to Malahide village according to the map and a lot more than 2 mins from swords


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    #1475
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    woodchuck wrote: »
    That's not a risk I'm willing to take. I've already explained our personal circumstances and the lack of supply in the area we want.

    If this sale falls through, I'm genuinely concerned that we'll be stuck renting the apartment we're in for the foreseeable future.

    And like I said, we're well beyond sale agreed, so I don't think it's even possible to re-negotiate the price at this stage anyway.

    Until contracts are exchanged, you can do what you want. Hope it all goes well for you.

    A lot of falls today....circa 25 and 8 increases?

    The pace of decline is accelerating.

    I am genuinely surprised that everyone on this thread is not all over this easily accessible statistic.


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    #1476
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Until contracts are exchanged, you can do what you want. Hope it all goes well for you.

    A lot of falls today....circa 25 and 8 increases?

    The pace of decline is accelerating.

    I am genuinely surprised that everyone on this thread is not all over this easily accessible statistic.


    Falls where? What were the falls per day this time last year?

    Here is august 2019: Here is august 2019: https://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges/page-252


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    #1477
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    This is called a gazunder. In the current market, gazundering is quite acceptable.

    Look at those falls today on myhome.ie.

    There has been a constant of about 75% to 85% drops and the rest rises on myhome I have been watching this for months. The figure that is most intriging is the actual amount of property available which has gone down by about 15% since March. If that keeps going there will be feck all property left to go up or down


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    #1478
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,688 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Until contracts are exchanged, you can do what you want. Hope it all goes well for you.

    A lot of falls today....circa 25 and 8 increases?

    The pace of decline is accelerating.

    I am genuinely surprised that everyone on this thread is not all over this easily accessible statistic.

    you are aware of the difference between asking prices and selling prices? we may well see falls in achieved sales prices, but using price drops on myhome is futile.


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    #1479
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    you are aware of the difference between asking prices and selling prices? we may well see falls in achieved sales prices, but using price drops on myhome is futile.

    Falls in price expectation are a forward indicator for falls in prices. This is a repeat of last downturn.


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    #1480
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Falls in price expectation are a forward indicator for falls in prices. This is a repeat of last downturn.

    where to the 1/4th to 1/5th of prices rising on myhome fit into this? Also properties sold on PPR are up by over 100 on last week


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    #1481
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,688 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Falls in price expectation are a forward indicator for falls in prices. This is a repeat of last downturn.

    i like to stick to the facts personally, but you do you.


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    #1482
    ebayissues
    Registered Users Posts: 446 ✭✭ebayissues


    Nothing is clear cut as it seems.



    I still believe prices will decline in the short to medium term by 5 - 10%.


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    #1483
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    This is the ESRI prediction:522289.png

    The baseline is if CoVid hadn't happened. The v shaped recovery is in the scenario where the economy is returning to normal this year. The Sluggish line is for continued tight restrictions.

    100 points on the index represents the prices for q1 2019.

    They are predicting a 14% drop by q4 2020 in the sluggish scenario.


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    #1484
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    This is the ESRI prediction:https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=522289&stc=1&d=1596733012

    The baseline is if CoVid hadn't happened. The v shaped recovery is in the scenario where the economy is returning to normal this year. The Sluggish line is for continued tight restrictions.

    100 points on the index represents the prices for q1 2019.

    They are predicting a 14% drop by q4 2020 in the sluggish scenario.

    It seems they failed with their predictions, it shows 6-8% price decrease by 2020 Q2, both in sluggish and v-shapped, so far the only close scenario from the graph is "baseline", as if covid didn't happen...


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    #1485
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    Marius34 wrote: »
    It seems they failed with their predictions, it shows 6-8% price decrease by 2020 Q2, both in sluggish and v-shapped, so far the only close scenario from the graph is "baseline", as if covid didn't happen...
    Seems like it. Is there data available comparing 2020 q2 prices vs 2019 q2 yet? I did hear of some prices being negotiated down during the CoVid period. The number of transactions would have been so low I guess its not worth trying to read into it anyway.


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    #1486
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    35 falls today and 6 rises.

    That is a new high.

    I will keep an eye on supply. It us likely that more houses will come on the market in Autumn with the traditional.autimn selling season.


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    #1487
    Sarn
    Registered Users Posts: 3,060 ✭✭✭Sarn


    Pelezico wrote: »
    35 falls today and 6 rises.

    That is a new high.

    I will keep an eye on supply. It us likely that more houses will come on the market in Autumn with the traditional.autimn selling season.

    As a matter of interest, how many remained unchanged?


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    #1488
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    35 falls today and 6 rises.

    That is a new high.

    I will keep an eye on supply. It us likely that more houses will come on the market in Autumn with the traditional.autimn selling season.

    I always thought summer was peak season


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    #1489
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Sarn wrote: »
    As a matter of interest, how many remained unchanged?

    the rest of the 18.5k that are excluded from his/her analysis


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    #1490
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    35 falls today and 6 rises.

    That is a new high.

    I will keep an eye on supply. It us likely that more houses will come on the market in Autumn with the traditional.autimn selling season.

    Supply is down over 3k since March


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    #1491
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    fliball123 wrote: »
    I always thought summer was peak season
    Summer is always quiet with holidays etc
    With no holidays and coming out of lock-down I would expect this summer to be busier than normal.
    Plus mortgages approved before the lock-down will be starting to expire


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    #1492
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    Seems like it. Is there data available comparing 2020 q2 prices vs 2019 q2 yet? I did hear of some prices being negotiated down during the CoVid period. The number of transactions would have been so low I guess its not worth trying to read into it anyway.

    The latest report from CSO is for 2020 May transactions.
    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmay2020/
    There are no change so far between 2019 and 2020 prices.
    The number of transactions in April & May was lower by 50%, but there is some recovery from June/July, it's running around 30% below 2019 levels, so it's not that low.
    I have my own statistics, it's not as precise as CSO, but there is no real change in price visible for the months of June & July, thus I'm quite confident CSO will not record any significant change.


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    #1493
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Marius34 wrote: »
    The latest report from CSO is for 2020 May transactions.
    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexmay2020/
    There are no change so far between 2019 and 2020 prices.
    The number of transactions in April & May was lower by 50%, but there is some recovery from June/July, it's running around 30% below 2019 levels, so it's not that low.
    I have my own statistics, it's not as precise as CSO, but there is no real change in price visible for the months of June & July, thus I'm quite confident CSO will not record any significant change.
    j

    June July transactions down about 48 % on last year. Not sure where your stats ste coming from.


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    #1494
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Pelezico wrote: »
    j

    June July transactions down about 48 % on last year. Not sure where your stats ste coming from.

    Same way as yesterday discussion that it will go over 2000
    Pelezico wrote: »
    Marius..I reckon we will struggle to hit 2000 in July and this will slow over the next few months.
    It's 2300 now, as mentioned previously looking at the trends it will be around 3000 (and possibly over) by beginning of next month.

    I can explain how i get those numbers, if you explain "your" stats about previous months/years myhome data :-)
    Pelezico wrote: »
    This is not correct. The number of falls has accelerated in the last few months.

    I now expect 100 falls per week. A few years ago, it was circa 20.


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    #1495
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Falls in price expectation are a forward indicator for falls in prices. This is a repeat of last downturn.


    Correct


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    #1496
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    brisan wrote: »
    You do know the economy is on life support due to the Government pumping billions into it.


    yep, the result is high inflation


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    #1497
    The Belly
    Registered Users Posts: 572 ✭✭✭The Belly


    [/U]
    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    yep, the result is high inflation

    Ireland inflation rate for 2019 was 0.94%, a 0.45% increase from 2018. Ireland inflation rate for 2018 was 0.49%, a 0.15% increase from 2017. Ireland inflation rate for 2017 was 0.34%, a 0.33% increase from 2016.

    2020 currently stands at 0.4%

    Where's the high inflation? we are looking at deflation going forward.


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    #1498
    Hubertj
    Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    The Belly wrote: »
    [/U]

    Ireland inflation rate for 2019 was 0.94%, a 0.45% increase from 2018. Ireland inflation rate for 2018 was 0.49%, a 0.15% increase from 2017. Ireland inflation rate for 2017 was 0.34%, a 0.33% increase from 2016.

    2020 currently stands at 0.4%

    Where's the high inflation? we are looking at deflation going forward.

    What caused the significant increase from 2018 to 2019? It’s over 100% compared to much smaller % increases in previous years.


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    #1499
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    The Belly wrote: »
    [/U]

    Ireland inflation rate for 2019 was 0.94%, a 0.45% increase from 2018. Ireland inflation rate for 2018 was 0.49%, a 0.15% increase from 2017. Ireland inflation rate for 2017 was 0.34%, a 0.33% increase from 2016.

    2020 currently stands at 0.4%

    Where's the high inflation? we are looking at deflation going forward.


    If the government is printing a lot of money to pump into the system there will be high inflation. That was my point from the start.
    Otherwise this will stay as they are and i'm more than happy with it


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    #1500
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,184 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    awec wrote: »
    Do you know how much it costs to carpet a bedroom? In the grand scheme of things it's a completely and utterly irrelevant cost, of no consequence whatsoever.

    Same as your fixation with stag dos. Another complete irrelevance.

    It wouldn't matter how frugal someone is, even if they live a life of sheer abject misery. It wouldn't matter if they were willing to move into a house that has literally nothing in it, concrete walls and plaster walls. It wouldn't matter if they never left their house for any sort of social occassion.

    They still wouldn't be able to buy a 3 bed semi on their apprenticeship wages like you were.

    Everything is inconsequencal by itself but by adding everything up they make a difference.

    The first main difference is building standard, insulation, climate change costs, and certifiacation has added 30-50K to the average house. 1980's standard finish compared to finished expected now has added about another 30K to the standard house.

    Things like stag's latte's, meals out, holidays etc etc may cost the average 20 year old 10-15K a year. In the 1980's a Thursday night out was 5 pints and somebody drove home after. We might call to Kranks corner but only might. There was no 100 euro for a snort of Cocaine and we might hit Poldarks Saturday night if we were around and not gone home.

    3rd year apprentice on 40K and if his Girlfriend was on the same after tax saving one wage for 4 years is 127K. 3.5X80K =240K. That a total of 367K without an exemption, add in an exemption and you are hitting 400K

    Pelezico wrote: »
    Well, I dont consider financial prudence to be greed. There is always another house.

    And there is another bidder. If a bidder tried to a stunt like that on me I sell for less to other bidder rather than sell him the house.
    woodchuck wrote: »
    Yeah we're sale agreed, survey done, valuation done, contracts in. I can't imagine asking for a reduction at this stage!! And we wouldn't have asked before we went sale agreed either - like I said, there were 2 other bidders nibbling at our heels.

    People often forget the costs involved Survey and vauluation 1.5-2K nowadays, legal fees another 1-2K which you may have to pay if you do not complete the deal

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #1501
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,384 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Bass Reeves wrote: »
    Everything is inconsequencal by itself but by adding everything up they make a difference.

    The first main difference is building standard, insulation, climate change costs, and certifiacation has added 30-50K to the average house. 1980's standard finish compared to finished expected now has added about another 30K to the standard house.

    Things like stag's latte's, meals out, holidays etc etc may cost the average 20 year old 10-15K a year. In the 1980's a Thursday night out was 5 pints and somebody drove home after. We might call to Kranks corner but only might. There was no 100 euro for a snort of Cocaine and we might hit Poldarks Saturday night if we were around and not gone home.

    3rd year apprentice on 40K and if his Girlfriend was on the same after tax saving one wage for 4 years is 127K. 3.5X80K =240K. That a total of 367K without an exemption, add in an exemption and you are hitting 400K




    And there is another bidder. If a bidder tried to a stunt like that on me I sell for less to other bidder rather than sell him the house.



    People often forget the costs involved Survey and vauluation 1.5-2K nowadays, legal fees another 1-2K which you may have to pay if you do not complete the deal

    10k a year? 800 euro a month?

    What sort of 20 year old do you think has that sort of cash to splash about?


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